Mon, Jan 6 2025, 12:04 PM
It is right around now that people give up saying “Happy New Year” to others, mostly because they’ve lost track to whom they’ve said it. Welcome back ...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 10:31 AM
Treasuries made modest gains in overseas trading, but yields are heading higher during domestic hours. There are two things working against us this m...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 5:29 PM
Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare
2 weeks ago today, we assumed the bond market would l...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 4:33 PM
The official holiday dates may be in the rearview, but as far as interest rates and underlying bond markets are concerned, this was the last day of th...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 3:49 PM
Blessings, curses, enigmas, paradoxes, etc... The state of home price appreciation in the U.S. is all of the above. The positive case for home prices...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 3:22 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) didn't publish updated weekly application numbers last week, which meant that this week's data had to play catc...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 12:24 PM
Today's ISM Manufacturing report was the only top tier economic data this week. While we wouldn't say it was "strong" by any means, it wasn't weak ei...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 4:40 PM
The last time mortgage rates were moving with any sense of urgency was in the days surround the Fed's rate cut on December 18th. Incidentally, that mo...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 4:38 PM
Uneventful Start to 2025
Bonds began the day in moderately stronger territory before losing ground after the...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 11:56 AM
Hello 2025, goodbye 2024. It’s been 50 years since Jaws or Godfather Part 2 were on the screens. A half a century since Kung Fu Fighting first graced ...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 10:11 AM
Bonds were steadily stronger overnight, both in Asia and Europe. 10yr yields and MBS had both fully erased Tuesday's losses within the first 30 minut...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 2:20 PM
Year-End Trading. No Big Deal
Bonds started stronger but lost ground quickly and inexplicably starting aroun...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 1:39 PM
Major holidays typically involve a full day market closure along with an "early close" on an adjacent day. This matters to rates because mortgage len...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 11:47 AM
Besides being enthralled with Tiger King and My Octopus Teacher four years ago, what do AL, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, MD, MA, NJ, NY, NM, NC, RI, SC, TN, VT...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 10:01 AM
The day begins with MBS in slightly weaker territory while Treasuries are slightly stronger. The discrepancy isn't really big enough to merit any urg...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 3:56 PM
Feel Free to Enjoy The Rally, But Don't Read Too Much Into It
Bonds improved somewhat significantly in overn...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 3:31 PM
Because mortgage rates are determined by trading levels in the bond market, when the market is closed, lenders don't update their rate offerings. As ...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 3:11 PM
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases monthly reports on both existing and pending home sales. The latter tracks signed purchase contrac...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 11:44 AM
“What do they call the 4th of July in nursing homes? In Depends Day.” (Another joke at the bottom.) There are plenty of elderly people, year ‘round, a...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 10:49 AM
Stop the presses! MBS are up almost 3/8ths of a point in early trading and 10yr yields have surged lower by 8bps. This is a massive and miraculous r...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 4:57 PM
Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful
Bonds began the day in decent shape by pushing back against weakness ...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 4:16 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, and markets have been very quiet due to the holiday week. So we'll take a quick moment for a retrospective. I...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 12:02 PM
“I've just checked my home insurance policy and apparently if my blanket is stolen in the middle of the night, I’m not covered.” For many home owners,...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 9:31 AM
Not that any of this week's trading activity matters in the bigger picture, but things have been reasonably resilient after Monday's selling. Tuesday...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 4:32 PM
Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction
The day began as so many days over the past few months with...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading levels in the bond market and bond market activity has been extremely slow, as is normally the case during the Chr...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 11:52 AM
“My housemates are convinced our house is haunted. I don't get it. I've lived here for 273 years and haven’t noticed anything strange.” Many people wo...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 9:15 AM
Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting rig...
Tue, Dec 24 2024, 10:11 AM
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this ...
Tue, Dec 24 2024, 8:34 AM
In the news, besides American Airlines grounding all flights (it’s back running now), is Burt, the 90-year-old crocodile from Crocodile Dundee, dying ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 4:01 PM
Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season?
Bonds began the day in weaker territory and continued to sell off ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 3:36 PM
Holidays have inconsistent impacts on mortgage rates because holiday's have inconsistent impacts on the bond market (and rates are dictated by the bon...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 3:08 PM
Those who spend any time digging into home construction and home sales figures in the U.S. know that, of the 4 census divisions, the South accounts fo...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 12:30 PM
The most interesting analysis we can offer today is a simple reminder that the word "idiosyncrasy" has an "S" at the end instead of the "C" that we're...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 11:47 AM
Why do ducks have feathers? To cover up their butt quacks. Why did Congress pass a three-month, stopgap funding bill? To cover their… never mind. But ...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:44 PM
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, it was unlikely if not impossible th...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:11 PM
The week's big story is still the big jump in rates that took place after Wednesday's Fed announcement. And while rates remain noticeably elevated on...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 9:54 AM
This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its pri...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 4:30 PM
Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day
Considering everything that transpired yesterday, today's follow-up w...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 3:50 PM
We received some anonymous feedback regarding recent rate commentary that serves as a good reminder that not everyone may be picking up what we're put...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 3:33 PM
Just in time for the big jump in interest rates seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, the latest Existing Home Sales data from the National Associa...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 12:04 PM
When I see a headline with “housing” and “crash” in it, I think it is merely clickbait, and the author is trying to attract readers. For example: The ...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 10:29 AM
The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold. First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in Septembe...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 5:07 PM
Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected
We knew the bond market was expecting a hawkis...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 4:19 PM
If anyone needed any further convincing that a Fed rate cut is no guarantee of lower mortgage rates, today is a great piece of evidence. Perhaps "gre...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 4:06 PM
Heading into the first part of December, mortgage rates were at their lowest levels in a month and a half. Much of the improvement from the recent hi...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 3:40 PM
The Census Bureau releases its report on New Residential Construction each month which offers 3 key metrics: building permits, housing starts, and hou...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have gene...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 11:59 AM
“When a woman says, ‘What?’ it’s not because she didn’t hear you. It’s because she’s giving you a chance to change what you said.” Things are always a...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 11:31 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as...
