Mon, Jun 12 2023, 10:09 AM
People ask why I have a problem with sensationalist headlines. Who you gonna believe, Realtor.com who tells us that foreclosures are spiking, or CoreL...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 4:20 PM
In a surprising turn of events, this week's biggest market mover for interest rates was a policy announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The event w...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 3:57 PM
Canada Doesn't Really Matter. Bring on CPI and The Fed
The day began with a hunt for the mystery market move...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 10:30 AM
Imagine my surprise at finding tag (like on the playground) is an organized sport. Imagine my surprise at finding two gas stations at the same interse...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 9:46 AM
This otherwise sleepy Friday began with the sort of clearly defined spike in volume and yield that often accompanies big ticket economic data. With t...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:19 PM
Economic data is one of the most basic and reliable inputs for the bond market. The bond market, in turn, dictates day to day interest rate movement....
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Claims Data Completely Erases At Least One Day of Higher Rate Expectations
There have been been several days...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 12:04 PM
If you like low rates, you are often unfortunately rooting for negative economic data. You're not a bad person. Bonds are simply a hedge against eco...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 11:09 AM
There’s a lot going on, and not only jawboning about a potential Fed rate increase next week. We have the smoke drifting down from Canada and slowing ...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates continue to operate in a fairly narrow range but we've been mostly moving in one direction inside that range so far this month. Late l...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 3:48 PM
BOC Warns US Rate Market Against Complacency
US rate traders are pretty sure they have the Fed figured out a...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 1:15 PM
Yesterday, it was the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) with it's first rate hike after "skipping" a few meetings. Today it was the Bank of Canada (BOC)....
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 10:50 AM
Mortgage news temporarily aside, how about the government contemplating a law that would require cars to have AM radio?! AM radio goes farther than FM...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 10:07 AM
The four-day business week accompanying the Memorial Day Holiday contributed to a further slowdown in mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Asso...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:42 PM
By Friday, there's a distinct possibility that you'll be tired of hearing different versions of the same story. The plot: last Friday's jobs report p...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Nothing to See Here
It would be hard to make a case for any other day in the past month being more boring th...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 10:45 AM
Well, what should we start with today? How about how California and Texas ranked highest on the United States Postal Service’s annual list of states w...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 10:37 AM
With the week's only top tier economic release hitting on Monday morning, the path of least resistance for the rest of the week is a choppy, sideways ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates held fairly steady over the weekend. That wasn't necessarily destined to be the case as the underlying bond market suggested another m...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:43 PM
Weaker Data Helps Bonds Hold Ground
Bonds remained in selling mode after Friday's jobs report. 10yr yields ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 12:29 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but quickly found their footing after softer PMI data. In particular, ISM Services (50.3 vs 52.2) helped 10yr...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 10:42 AM
It isn’t as if building or lending products, or ways of doing business, were handed down by Trappist monks. Change is always afoot, for better or wors...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 6:40 PM
After dominating the news cycle for weeks, the debt ceiling issue is suddenly resolved and the bond market doesn't seem to care. The jobs report prove...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 4:13 PM
What Debt Ceiling? Yields Follow NFP Higher
After being utterly bombarded for weeks, newswire feeds at tradi...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 2:00 PM
Nonfarm payrolls were up 339k, well above the 190k forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, well above the 3.5% forecast. Ho...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 9:53 AM
While lenders are grappling with steadily increasing Agency repurchase requests, it’s National Donut Day! Someone had better offer those folks at Stat...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Data-Driven Rally, But There's Bigger Data Ahead
Yesterday's economic data made for a bit of back and forth ...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 1:13 PM
Bonds had been hoping for econ data to reinforce a ceiling after a recent run to the highest yields in months and the past few days have delivered. T...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 9:54 AM
The United States has about 336 million people. Did you know that 1/3 of them live within a 500-mile radius of Nashville? This is a cool site for anyo...
Wed, May 31 2023, 4:43 PM
After hitting the highest levels in several months last Friday, mortgage rates have fallen fairly quickly in the new week. As bond markets improved t...
Wed, May 31 2023, 3:58 PM
Domestic Events Mostly Overshadowed by European Influence
While we can trace some of this morning's back and...
Wed, May 31 2023, 1:26 PM
The big news so far this week is the absence of any concrete conclusion to the debt ceiling debate (delivered in box labelled "debt ceiling debate sol...
Wed, May 31 2023, 9:09 AM
A biologist, a chemist, and a statistician are out hunting. The biologist shoots at a deer and misses five feet to the left. The chemist takes a shot ...
Wed, May 31 2023, 8:33 AM
Rising rates and sparse inventories continue to hamper the mortgage market. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a...
Tue, May 30 2023, 10:53 PM
Nice Rally With Buyers Back in The Office
Any time bonds make a big (but not necessarily completely justifie...
Tue, May 30 2023, 4:19 PM
The past 2 weeks were fairly rough for fans of low mortgage rates. The average lender moved higher at the fastest pace since February over that time....
Tue, May 30 2023, 12:55 PM
Whether it was the economic headwinds implied by the stop-gap debt ceiling proposal or a return to the market among traders who'd pared positions ahea...
Tue, May 30 2023, 11:57 AM
One of the major home price indices showed a continued increase in national home prices in March and less waffling in some local markets. A second i...
Tue, May 30 2023, 10:35 AM
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services What do dozens of decision-makers know that would lead them to invest in their origination techno...
Fri, May 26 2023, 3:45 PM
It was nearly impossible to avoid news regarding the debt ceiling this week, but how much does it actually matter? Let's make sure we're on the same ...
Fri, May 26 2023, 2:04 PM
Bonds Diverge Over Data Implications
It's been a consistently bad week for the bond market and this morning'...
Fri, May 26 2023, 11:12 AM
Did you know that wheat futures prices are at a 2-year low? And lumber prices continue to drop? Those numbers should help reduce inflation. During the...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:34 PM
It was bad news but big news a few days ago when the average top tier 30yr fixed rate made it back to 7% for the first time since early March. After ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:24 PM
Debt Ceiling Debate Volatility Causing Issues For Bonds
Treasuries sold off in a linear fashion today--much ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 1:35 PM
Despite vague hints of support over the past few days, the bond market is back to the same old tricks seen last week. It's actually a pretty simple t...
Thu, May 25 2023, 11:48 AM
The number of contracts to purchase pre-owned homes was unchanged in April. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 9:34 AM
My notes from the MBA’s conference this week continue, including talk about new home sales being +4.1 percent for the month (+11 percent year over yea...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:43 PM
Wednesday was a fairly volatile day for mortgage rates. The movement wasn't extreme, but there were a few lead changes. The day began with the avera...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:27 PM
Today is Best Viewed as "In-Range Volatility"
Bonds began the day on the back foot as UK inflation crushed f...
Wed, May 24 2023, 10:26 AM
As the MBA’s Secondary Conference in New York wraps up, and jokes are made about who actually paid for Fannie’s reception (informally titled “The Repu...
