Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:58 PM
Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot
Whereas last week saw the bond market continue ...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been having a much calmer week compared to last week. Monday brought a modest decline versus last Friday and today's rates are ef...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:24 PM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo publish the Housing Market Index (HMI) each month. The industry refers to this as "bu...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 11:20 AM
Number progressions can be deceiving and surprising. Thank you to Eric D. who reminded me of “The Wheat and the Chessboard” example, guaranteed to sur...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 11:05 AM
Yesterday, it was S&P Global PMI data. Today it's Retail Sales. Both were stronger than expected. Both failed to cause any lasting weakness in bond...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 4:22 PM
Bonds Hold Ground Despite Unfriendly Econ Data
If there was a prime directive for the bond market last week,...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 3:56 PM
Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from t...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 12:26 PM
Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session, and although domestic traders quickly erased the gains in the AM hours, the selling is currentl...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 11:47 AM
You don’t become cooler with age, but you do care progressively less about being cool, which is the only true way of being cool. This is called the “G...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 4:55 PM
Why So Much Selling in Bonds?
Without a doubt, it's been a frustrating and puzzling week for the bond market...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 3:13 PM
There's no easy way to say it: it was a bad week for mortgage rates. Actually, it was a bad week for interest rates in general and mortgage rates typ...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 12:15 PM
“They say that mafia members are nasty people. But while growing up, I lived next door to one mafia member, and he was actually a nice guy. In fact, e...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 11:42 AM
Bonds can't seem to catch a break this week. Data hasn't necessarily been unfriendly either with both CPI and PPI hitting forecasts at the core month...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:36 PM
Mediocre Data Has Done Nothing to Help Bonds
Granted, this week's slate of economic data isn't on quite the ...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:08 PM
It's been a bummer of a week for mortgage rates with modest to moderate increases every day so far. Adding insult to injury is the fact that there ha...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 11:58 AM
What? You’re a builder who’s short on nails? Well, bring in some folks from Japan… they don’t necessarily need them. Of the nearly 300 types of nails ...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 10:28 AM
This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected in year-over-year terms (3.4 vs 3.2 at the core level). Traders were mostly abl...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 4:16 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally
It was a day for "explanations" in the bond market with the morni...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates were having a pretty decent day at first. The bond market was only slightly weaker overnight (implies some upward pressure on rates), ...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 3:08 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association is out with the latest survey of mortgage applications and refinance activity led the charge this week. In fact, pur...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 11:42 AM
“I love Christmas lights! They remind me of the people who voted for (insert name of politician). They all hang together, half of them don’t work, and...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 10:52 AM
Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts. After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 4:13 PM
Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation
Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday's jobs...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 3:34 PM
Between November 18th and December 6th, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved down from 7.08 to 6.68. A 0.40% drop is rather significan...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 12:03 PM
“To the paranoid people who check behind shower curtains for murderers: if you find one, what's your plan?” What’s the Fed’s plan? The Federal Reserve...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 10:40 AM
Yesterday's closing commentary also noted "inconsequential weakness," and there's not really a better way to refer to this morning's modest losses. O...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 5:02 PM
Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost a moderate amount of ground on Monday with 10yr yields moving back above...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week with an impressive drop to the lowest levels in more than a month and a half. Today's rates ended up being the 2nd low...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 11:52 AM
“Wi-Fi outages are the new snow days!” Without the internet or cable, would we return to relying on newspapers, radios, and network channels for news?...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 10:38 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. While that's technically "resistance," we're not complaining considering that's...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned?
After Thanksgiving week introduced a potential breako...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:29 PM
As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 11:51 AM
“Today’s three-year-olds can switch on laptops and open their favorite apps. When I was three, I ate mud.” Times change. Remember when homeowner’s ins...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 9:52 AM
We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad f...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 4:10 PM
Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 3:58 PM
It's been a remarkably calm week for mortgage rates, and a fairly decent one relative to several recent examples. The average top tier 30yr fixed rat...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 11:25 AM
Don’t steal packages off of porches… you never know what will be inside them… A very low-tech attempt at dissuading thieves. On the flip side, what do...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 8:46 AM
Jobless Claims
224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev
Continued Claims
1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev
At first glance, the 224k figure...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 4:34 PM
No Whammies From Powell as Rates Rally on ISM Data
Bonds came away from this morning's economic data with a ...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 4:23 PM
Mortgage lenders generally try to avoid setting rates more than once per day, but they will make changes if the underlying bond market is moving enoug...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 12:00 PM
Bonds drifted steadily higher in yield during the overnight session with most of the weakness seen after European markets opened. The net effect was r...
Wed, Dec 4 2024, 11:07 AM
My cat Myrtle never had to worry too much about things like… money. Elon Musk, however, can’t seem to catch a break and his $56 billion (yes, with a “...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 3:53 PM
Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range
The day began with a bond rally courtesy of geopolitical headli...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 3:30 PM
The bond market is the primary driver of mortgage rate movement and normally, "weakness" equates to higher rates. Bonds are slightly weaker today com...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 11:59 AM
Tis the season to have some fun, right? How about we start with this interesting musical duo? While the CFPB’s proposal addressing the selling of data...
Tue, Dec 3 2024, 9:57 AM
Of all of the motivations in all the markets, this one had to walk into ours. Or perhaps it rolled in on tank tracks. Just over an hour ago, South K...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 4:42 PM
Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains
The most significant thing that happened as the market returne...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates remain elevated relative to the levels seen in September and early October, but they've definitely moved down a bit from their recent h...
Mon, Dec 2 2024, 11:51 AM
I recall Zillow doing a study on the color of the front door impacting sales price. What does $22.5 million get you in Charleston, SC, especially if t...
