Mon, Oct 6 2025, 8:57 AM
On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the ...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 4:59 PM
Weaker Day, Stronger Week
Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakne...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable. But because the range has been so na...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 3:22 PM
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but re...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 3:03 PM
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still hig...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 2:47 PM
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applica...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 11:46 AM
Here in Telluride, CO, after learning of my capital markets background, yesterday someone bluntly asked me, “Can one person slow or stop the United St...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 10:12 AM
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 4:04 PM
Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger
With the day's only relevant econ data on hold due to the shutd...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 3:16 PM
If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 11:47 AM
We’re two days into the 4th quarter of the 2025, two days into another government shutdown, and… companies are relishing their September numbers. I ha...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 9:45 AM
As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Ord...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 3:53 PM
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Week, But Still Generally Flat
Short version: bonds have been basically f...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 3:16 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report f...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 11:09 AM
Come on… you don’t believe politics and mortgages are separate? Look at politicized government housing agencies: whoever is running HUD, whether it is...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 8:32 AM
Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have pr...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 4:12 PM
Gains Erased by Month/Quarter-End Trading
If it's the last day of a month and especially if it's also the la...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 3:08 PM
Mortgage rates were just barely lower this morning versus yesterday's latest levels, but most borrowers won't see any major difference from any of the...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 11:46 AM
“Why do millennials think the government saved their lives? Because they are indebted to it forever.” Here in Colorado, the United States federal gove...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 11:25 AM
No new news on the probably government shutdown, but betting markets show increased odds, for whatever that's worth. The only reason to watch or care ...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 5:08 PM
Waiting on Details as Bonds Reinforce The Range
It was a forgettable trading day, but at least slightly stro...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 3:55 PM
It was an uneventful day for the bond market (and, thus, interest rates) as investors wait for clarity on this week's potential government shutdown. I...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 11:51 AM
Here in Colorado, banking, credit unions, and independent mortgage banks are a solid part of the economic fabric. LOs here and everywhere are scrambli...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 10:00 AM
Under normal circumstance, we look forward to the first Friday of any given month as the day that the jobs report takes a swing at sending the stronge...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 3:54 PM
Last week was a wild one for mortgage rates with the lowest levels in nearly a year on Monday and an abrupt spike after Wednesday's Fed announcement. ...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 3:01 PM
Existing-home sales held roughly steady in August after tepid uptick in July. That NAR reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million , do...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 2:33 PM
New home sales surged in August, breaking a two-year stretch of range-bound activity. The Census Bureau and HUD reported a seasonally adjusted annual ...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 2:12 PM
Mortgage application activity technically hit another long-term high last week, but that's only because it was riding the coattails of the previous we...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 11:48 AM
Call them wretched or call them splendid, in Japan, robots and service bots run some restaurants and are indeed taking the place of humans, who have n...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 10:36 AM
PCE may be the most relevant inflation report when it comes to assessing progress toward the Fed's 2% target, but it is not the most relevant report t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 3:54 PM
Reasonably Resilient After AM Losses
In another straightforward trading session, bonds responded logically t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 2:47 PM
Thursday was the first day of the week with any meaningful economic reports. This is important to mortgage rates because economic data influences the ...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 11:45 AM
“I just won $10 in the lottery! The 7-11 clerk wanted to sell me a $10 lottery ticket in Atlanta. I said no.” Hopefully most people realize that a lot...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 10:54 AM
It's been a fairly straightforward morning so far with economic data coming out much stronger than expected. While the reports in question are not in...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 4:06 PM
Weaker Thanks to 2 Kinds of "Supply"
At its core, the bond market is like any other financial market, and se...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 3:41 PM
Over time, mortgage rate movement lines up almost perfectly with movement in the underlying bond market, but there can be day to day discrepancies dep...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 11:52 AM
“Yesterday I was devastated to learn that the 2025 Psychic Prediction Convention was cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.” Yesterday, while the ...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 11:33 AM
It would be an overstatement to say that this week's econ calendar has been "active," but yesterday at least had unscripted comments from Fed Chair Po...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 4:15 PM
Modestly Stronger After No Whammies From Powell
Last week's press conference with Fed Chair Powell could be ...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take their most important cues from big ticket economic reports. But such reports have been in short suppl...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 11:47 AM
At recent conferences I’ve attended, including here in Atlanta at the Loan Vision Innovation Conference, talk of federal government partisanship, post...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 11:03 AM
Fed Chair Powell speaks today at a chamber of commerce luncheon in Providence. While the venue may not possess the gravitas of last week's press confe...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 3:12 PM
After hitting the lowest levels in nearly a year (and nearly the lowest levels in 3 years) last Tuesday, rates lurched higher following Wednesday's Fe...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 3:47 PM
Slow Burn With Little to Blame
Bonds started out sideways and lost a minimal amount of ground very gradually...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 11:11 AM
Although the present week brings the release of PCE inflation for August, and although PCE is the most relevant inflation data when it comes to assess...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 3:35 PM
Officially, our daily mortgage rate index is a hair lower today than it was yesterday. Your mileage may vary depending on the lender in question. Reas...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 1:49 PM
Builder confidence levels continued kicking a sad little can down the same long and lonesome road. The September National Association of Home Builders...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 1:30 PM
The Census Bureau’s latest Residential Construction report showed a mixed picture for August, highlighted by a sharp drop in building permits. Total h...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 12:50 PM
What a difference a week makes for mortgage application demand. As we noted last week, mortgage rates were already trending lower than those captured ...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 11:44 AM
In China, red symbolizes prosperity, protection, and welcoming energy, and so is a popular front door color for occupants, especially when facing sout...
