Tue, Oct 21 2025, 11:51 AM
“What do Costco and Las Vegas have in common? You go to buy a gallon of milk, and it costs you $285.” There isn’t a lot of autumn foliage here in Las ...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 11:34 AM
On the one hand, there's not much going on for the bond market these days. The jobs report is a flat-out requirement in terms of informing major chan...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 4:17 PM
Strange Combo of Excitement and Boredom
Boring stuff first: there was no significant data, news, volume, or ...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels in just over a month. It was the 3rd best day in over a year and the 24th best day in over 3 years...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 11:50 AM
“Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet.” Here at the “MBA Annual,” the puns may not be flying, but there is news bouncing off...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 11:16 AM
New week. Same grind. We're waiting (likely for a good while longer) for the government shutdown to end before the most relevant econ data can truly e...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 5:01 PM
Logical Pull-Back on Tamer Tariff Talk, But Mortgages Outperform
If there was only one event to be aware of ...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 2:22 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate was unchanged on Friday despite the bond market being slightly weaker. Normally, weaker bonds mean higher rates, ...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 11:53 AM
By process of elimination and ongoing forensic efforts, it's becoming more and more clear that yesterday's mystery rally in the short end of the yield...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 11:38 AM
Under the category of careers that are, or will be, impacted, by artificial intelligence, attorneys are inevitably on it. Here’s a tale of a lawyer ca...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 4:16 PM
Seriously... No One Seems to Know
Today's most prominent feature was a large, rapid move in Fed Funds Future...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 3:42 PM
Despite a stark absence of any truly inspiring events, interest rates have managed to put in two fairly serious days of movement. In today's case spec...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 11:46 AM
“I was gambling in Las Vegas; I took a little risk. Send lawyers, guns, and money, Dad, get me out of this!” Hopefully, no one heading to LV tomorrow ...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 9:40 AM
There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown. OK, well only 3 notable absences...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 5:32 PM
Fairly Flat At Strongest Levels in Weeks
10yr yields ended the day a mere 0.1bp higher than yesterday (4.029...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds are trading at their best levels since September 17th. Of course there are different kinds of bonds, so w...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 11:51 AM
While the debate rages on about whether the three colors of candy corn taste different, at the other end of the tech spectrum, lenders are weeding out...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 10:16 AM
Stocks have made a bit of a round trip since last Friday when Trump's tariff comments sparked a big sell-off. Bonds benefited from that at the time. ...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 9:46 AM
Mortgage application activity declined again last week, though the drop was more moderate than the prior week’s pullback. According to MBA’s Weekly Ap...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 5:43 PM
Yields Hug Multi-Week Lows After Powell Speech
Bonds were remarkably resilient over the extended weekend giv...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 5:02 PM
Last week ended with mortgage rates dropping to their best levels since September 17th. Over the weekend, the underlying bond market maintained the ga...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 11:43 AM
“Where do amputees get prosthetics on a budget? The secondhand store.” Budget, stalemate, and shutdown news continues in Washington DC. The sun still ...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 9:59 AM
Bonds are flashing red on the screen (depending on when you look), but even at their weakest levels of the morning, we'd still consider this a stronge...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 5:43 PM
Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama
Bonds were already having a decent day this morning with overnight market...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 3:16 PM
Mortgage rates saw their biggest day-over-day decline of the past several weeks today in response to unexpected news regarding additional tariffs on C...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 2:22 PM
Mortgage application activity declined again last week as refi demand continues pulling back after the surge in mid September. According to MBA’s Week...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 11:49 AM
The stalemate & shutdown continue, all but eliminating the government release of economic news. Recall that the U.S. Treasury posted a $345 billion bu...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 9:44 AM
At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaich...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 4:05 PM
Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform
It's not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the ru...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 3:33 PM
It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that ...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 11:46 AM
“Two lawyers walk into a pub. They order a couple of drinks and take subs out of their brief cases. They begin to eat. Seeing this, the angry pub owne...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 9:17 AM
With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a P...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 3:21 PM
Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes
There were no market-moving economic reports scheduled f...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 3:00 PM
Mortgage rates technically ticked a hair lower today, but it's more accurate to view them as being broadly sideways. Some lenders issued improvements ...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 11:50 AM
We’re sailing through autumn. Places like Seattle and Minneapolis are losing 3-5 minutes of sunlight a day. Donald Trump told Congress to end changing...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 9:33 AM
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed sp...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 4:26 PM
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yi...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 11:45 AM
President Trump has recommended that publicly held companies only report earnings every six months instead of every three. Don’t stockholders deserve ...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 11:38 AM
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technic...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 4:39 PM
Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change
There were no economic reports on tap today and no obvious mar...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days. This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the pas...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 11:45 AM
Often the economy and general business trends are separate from management and business acumen. Like Block Buster, which at the high point had over 9,...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 8:57 AM
On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the ...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 4:59 PM
Weaker Day, Stronger Week
Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakne...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable. But because the range has been so na...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 3:22 PM
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but re...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 3:03 PM
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still hig...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 2:47 PM
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applica...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 11:46 AM
Here in Telluride, CO, after learning of my capital markets background, yesterday someone bluntly asked me, “Can one person slow or stop the United St...
