Wed, Jun 18 2025, 4:17 PM
It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The u...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 11:53 AM
Today we hear from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We can expect no change to overnight fed funds. As pointed yesterday by Dr. Paul Brewbaker, the economist...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 10:47 AM
Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the st...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 4:31 PM
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement
Bonds lost some ground after this morning's economic data...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates continue operating in a narrow range with almost every day of the past two months falling between 6.8 and 7.0% for a top tier 30yr fixe...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 11:46 AM
In Spain, Spaniards are shooting water pistols at foreigners to protest the impact of mass tourism: it has created a housing crunch. Tourism in the Un...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 10:53 AM
Bonds were decently stronger in the overnight session, but not for any new, specific reasons. Trading levels have been cutting an increasingly narrow...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 4:15 PM
Token Weakness Without a Cause
Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no ...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 3:53 PM
While there's been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn't been much by way of inspiration for...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 11:43 AM
Any food science major will tell you that the difference between jelly and jam is that jam has chunks of fruit in it; jelly is strained. There is also...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 10:25 AM
After rallying fairly well last Wednesday and Thursday, bonds pulled back on Friday, but not enough to erase more than half of the week's gains. The n...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 3:32 PM
Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness
At first glance, with only one report on the calendar, it's only...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 3:11 PM
The top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate index rose 0.04% on Friday, which would be a medium-sized defeat in and of itself. In the broader context, howev...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 12:49 PM
After a Memorial Day-induced lull, mortgage application activity rebounded sharply last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) la...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 11:51 AM
Hey, for you LOs who think things are slow, you can always go into golf. The best example of this is ex-LO Ben Griffin who has racked up $11 million i...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 9:53 AM
By 8pm last night, news of Israel's attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more tha...
Thu, Jun 12 2025, 4:13 PM
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally
Thursday's PPI was just as tame as Wednesday's CPI a...
Thu, Jun 12 2025, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates being offered today are only a hair lower for the average lender than they were on June 4th, but June 4th was the best day since early ...
Thu, Jun 12 2025, 11:51 AM
“I was always a home builder, but lately I’ve developed an apartment complex.” Here in Florida, so many structures are made of stucco because stucco i...
Thu, Jun 12 2025, 10:02 AM
This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this...
Wed, Jun 11 2025, 4:19 PM
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results
Wednesday ended up being a straightforward session for bonds with a l...
Wed, Jun 11 2025, 3:48 PM
After a calm start to the week on Monday and Tuesday, we were likely to see a bit more volatility on Wednesday due to important events on the calendar...
Wed, Jun 11 2025, 11:50 AM
Here in Tampa, I was walking through the hotel bar last night when I overheard someone say, “Age 60 might be the new 40, but 9:00 PM is the new midnig...
Wed, Jun 11 2025, 9:53 AM
Heading into today's CPI data, our stance was that we'd need to see the monthly core number come in at 0.1 vs 0.3 in order to see much of a friendly r...
Tue, Jun 10 2025, 3:49 PM
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow?
After a slightly bumpy start for reasons that remain unknown, the bond m...
Tue, Jun 10 2025, 3:37 PM
It was a fairly boring day on what has turned out to be a fairly boring week so far for mortgage rates. After Friday's larger spike, we've seen a mic...
Tue, Jun 10 2025, 11:42 AM
“Why is Ireland so expensive? House prices are always Dublin'.” Those days are temporarily over in the United States, and the pendulum is quickly swin...
Tue, Jun 10 2025, 10:46 AM
Although bonds are experiencing a small amount of volatility this morning, it isn't consequential in the bigger picture. Quick-but-modest weakness at...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 3:56 PM
Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines
First thing's first: bonds closed in stronger territory a...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 3:38 PM
As hoped, Friday's big rate spike did not carry additional momentum into the new week. This is occasionally a risk when rates are responding to big s...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 11:52 AM
For the next several days I am in Florida, in mortgage meetings and the MBAF, and in Saturday’s Commentary I noted the intense flurry of conference ac...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 10:12 AM
Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had la...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 5:02 PM
Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
It's not necessarily a fun fact to face, but today's bond marke...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 3:13 PM
Mortgage rates have enjoyed a nice run since May 21st, with the MND Index (average top tier 30yr fixed scenarios) falling from a recent peak of 7.08% ...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 2:22 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey showed a pullback in mortgage applications, with rates dipping slightly after a three-week clim...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 11:45 AM
Today is the 81st anniversary of D-Day. “My granddad was responsible for 25 downed German planes in WW II. To this day, he is still known as the worst...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 11:30 AM
The bond market was likely taking a bit of a lead-off ahead of today's jobs report, inspired by a string of weaker economic data over the past week. ...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 4:05 PM
Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report
It was a fairly interesting day for bonds, relative to the calendar...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 3:37 PM
Mortgage rates began the day perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels for the average lender. By the afternoon, the underlying bond market had...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 11:48 AM
The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine Stat...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds began the morning in rally mode, even if not in an extreme way. Gains lasted for about 20 minutes before reversing. The shift was accompanied ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 5:28 PM
Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM
We knew the onus was on weaker economic data to justify any decent drop in ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 4:32 PM
Whether or not today's drop in rates is meaningful depends on one's perspective, but in the context of recent rate movement, it's definitely noticeabl...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 11:52 AM
As the world is watching the chicks learn to fly on the eagle cam, in the human world there are more “For Sale” signs. You know that problem we’ve had...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 10:28 AM
It's been a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. Both of the morning's key economic reports came in weaker than expected. In the case of ...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:47 PM
JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight and then wea...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:02 PM
Sometimes a Tuesday is just a Tuesday for mortgage rates. In the present week, any day is capable of generating some volatility due to one of several...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 11:50 AM
My cat Myrtle never seemed to listen, but heard lots. LOs can hear the difference, when dealing with a borrower, between “What is your rate?” versus “...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 10:35 AM
First thing's first: the overnight rally was fairly modest with 10yr yields dropping about 3bps to 4.41 ahead of the domestic session. Given that the...
