Mon, Apr 14 2025, 4:18 PM
Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change
It was a low drama session for bonds with overnig...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 3:18 PM
Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. La...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 11:45 AM
“Why don't you tell rumors in a Botox Clinic? Nobody raises an eyebrow.” Who can keep track of the rumors out there, like a combo of a well-known real...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 10:10 AM
Friday afternoon's memorandum on tariff exclusions set the stage for stronger trading in stocks and bonds in the overnight session. Bonds rallied stea...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 5:03 PM
Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data
Bonds managed to recover modestly after the initial yield s...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 4:16 PM
It has undoubtedly been an extremely volatile week for financial markets and that includes the U.S. bond market to be sure. As an example, the poster...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 12:38 PM
There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began ...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 11:44 AM
I don’t know if the rumor is true that Webster’s is considering adding “Tariffied” to its dictionary, but the word certainly fits the climate. Capital...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 5:08 PM
The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real
Bonds sold off today, in spite of a very bond-friendly ...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 3:50 PM
This article is not intended to report on the weekly Freddie Mac rate survey, but we'll have to reference it in order to participate in reality. To be...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 11:49 AM
It feels very odd to label a report like CPI as "irrelevant," and to be fair, traders were still paying some attention, but the trading response, in g...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 11:29 AM
“Over the course of 18 years, it costs over $235,000 for parents to raise a child... and that's just for the alcohol.” Here in Dallas, plenty of peopl...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 5:38 PM
Bonds Have a Lot On Their Minds (And The Mega Reversal After The Tariff Pause)
There are actually too man...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 4:29 PM
For anyone remotely tuned into financial news, it will come as no surprise that this has been a crazy week and today has been a crazy day. This is ju...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 11:13 AM
How ‘bout some good news? Last week’s apps skyrocketed, and… Builders are sitting on a pile of unsold homes and are slashing prices and offering mortg...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 9:14 AM
MBS are down the better part of a point and 10yr yields are up 14+ bps at 4.44%. Another huge loss that leaves market watchers grasping for answers. ...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 5:37 PM
Heavy Losses as Bonds Brace For Tougher Times
This morning's commentary suggested that "liberation day volat...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 4:43 PM
While no one can be sure exactly how things will pan out in the long run, the market is currently expressing extreme disapproval of the new tariff pla...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 11:43 AM
Today I travel to the Dallas area for a Logan Finance event, and this comment from a friend last night is echoing in my ears: “Becoming an adult is th...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 10:47 AM
The past 2 days of selling in the bond market may seem dramatic, but they make solid sense in the bigger picture. Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day" w...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:47 PM
Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market
It was an extremely volatile, frustrating, and downright we...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:00 PM
Tariff volatility giveth and taketh from interest rates. Up until Friday afternoon, it's been mostly "giveth-ing." In other words, the prospect of t...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 12:02 PM
It's been an interesting Monday so far for the bond market (and stock market for that matter). Despite a big risk-off move (stocks and yields lower) t...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 11:20 AM
“Many people told Beethoven that he would never be a musician because he was deaf. Did he listen?” This week hundreds of mortgage bankers descend on W...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 5:19 PM
Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
MBS ended Friday right about where they ended T...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 4:29 PM
This week is ending with the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate at its lowest level since early October, 2024. The only way to be disappointed ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 2:59 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the latest mortgage application data this week showing a modest 1.6% decrease from the previous week. ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:41 AM
Ahead of next week’s MBA Advocacy event in Washington DC, I received this note from an industry vet. “With the continued consolidation into the large ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:37 AM
Despite today being "jobs report Friday," and despite the jobs report perennially having the power to cause big volatility for financial markets, over...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 4:48 PM
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day
On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going t...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 3:42 PM
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 11:43 AM
The Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times” can easily be applied to the residential mortgage business in the last month or so. This week a...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 11:19 AM
While plenty of uncertainty remains over the finer points of Wednesday afternoon's tariff announcement, markets have heard enough to brace for impact ...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:44 PM
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directio...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon. That's when th...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 12:06 PM
This morning's ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned. Despite coming out ...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 11:44 AM
Does anyone use the term “elderly” anymore? Websters defines elderly as “anyone past middle age,” “middle age” being 45-64. Prepare for a fight if you...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 4:19 PM
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously wor...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 3:29 PM
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on t...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 11:41 AM
This ain’t no April Fools economic news: not only has Hooters declared bankruptcy, but apparently there is yet another push to have credit unions pay ...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 10:33 AM
There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher. T...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:48 PM
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors rea...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:30 PM
"Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 11:48 AM
It’s been three years since Credit Plus re-branded as Xactus, and now another name brand in the mortgage world has a new name. Corelogic has become Co...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 10:34 AM
Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for fin...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:34 PM
First thing's first before anyone gets too excited: yes, rates fell on Friday, but not significantly. The average lender is still a bit closer to the...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:16 PM
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) tracks purchase contract signings that have not yet turned into Existing Home Sa...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:14 PM
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
It was one thing when bonds were only modestly s...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 4:19 PM
This week's update on refinance application demand accurately reflects the fact that rates came into the week near their recent highs, but managed to ...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 3:52 PM
It's not uncommon for certain medications to come with warnings about avoiding certain activities like driving or operating heavy machinery due to the...
