Wed, Nov 16 2022, 9:52 AM
This morning I head to Kansas City to spend some time with the MBAKC. KC is a mere 500 miles from Oak Park, Illinois, east of Chicago and childhood ho...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 9:12 AM
Mortgage application volume increased on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended November 11 but declined sharply before adjustment. The Mor...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:57 PM
1 Step Back and 1 Step Forward So Far This Week
Bonds made solid gains overnight, largely following a rally ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:31 PM
Let's talk about the current state of mortgage rates. Before we do, some housekeeping: the following pertains to averages across multiple lenders. T...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:22 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) collects data on borrower eligibility (FICO, loan type, LTV, etc) and combines that with underwriting guideline...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 11:06 AM
Today kicks off with the Producer Price Index painting a similar picture to last week's CPI data. Specifically, monthly wholesale inflation dropped 0...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 10:29 AM
The other day I walked in on Myrtle who was looking at the litter cleaning robot on the screen as if to ask, “What’ll they think of next?” Businesses ...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:56 PM
If you're just getting caught up, last Thursday was one for the record books--at least when it comes to the daily records that exist going back to 200...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:14 PM
The Best Half Point MBS Sell-Off
On probably any other day, a half point sell-off in MBS would be bad new...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 12:02 PM
In case you missed Thursday's trading session last week, it was epic--one of the biggest single-day rallies on record and the biggest drop in mortgage...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 9:31 AM
For some reason, companies laying off large numbers of people (most recently Better, Freedom, Mr. Cooper) make headlines, whereas shouldn’t the unusua...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:19 PM
Biggest Rally in Over a Decade After CPI Overdelivers
You may have been tired of hearing just how important ...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:11 PM
Heading into this week, we knew that Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be critically important. It did not disappoint. CPI is one of two ke...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 10:58 AM
This morning's trading action offers resounding validation of the market's hyperfocus on this particular CPI report. In a month where the average pri...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 9:14 AM
Okay, tomorrow is a holiday for many, but let’s not forget those veterans during the rest of the year. (Warning: tissues required.) Switching gears 18...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates experienced one of their calmest days of the past few weeks with the average lender roughly unchanged from yesterday. Rates are based ...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 11:41 AM
Heading into the week, the absence of tradable data on 3 out of the 4 days was readily apparent. Bonds were left at the mercy of tradeflows (all the ...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 10:11 AM
As Brian B. reminds me, “In the New England you can tell the changing of the seasons by the changing color of the leaves. In Florida you can tell the ...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 8:49 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports yet another decline in overall mortgage application volume during the week ending November 4. Applicati...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:37 PM
We're in the middle of a 4 day week culminating in one of the most important events of the year for interest rates. Thursday morning brings the relea...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:19 PM
Super Sideways After Solid Gains, But Nothing Matters Until Thursday
Today's news cycle was dominated by pol...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 12:10 PM
To be sure, the bond market absolutely CAN experience significant volatility in response to election outcomes, but the extent of that volatility depen...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 9:01 AM
This morning I head from Chicago to Atlanta, with a corresponding change in temperatures (20 degrees) and snow readiness (even the Chicago garbage tru...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates are directly linked to trading levels in the bond market. When bonds have a bad day, rates tend to rise. While that was true for the ...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 4:52 PM
Roughly 2 weeks ago, home price indices (HPIs) from Case Shiller and the FHFA came out for the month of August. Both were in agreement that prices de...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Fret Over Issuance
As Thursday's CPI looms on the horizon as this week's defini...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 11:47 AM
With essentially nothing on the economic calendar on Monday, the most notable headline for the bond market has been the announcement of at least 13 ne...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 9:35 AM
Do whatever you want to your clock, it doesn’t change the feeding time of your pets! Friday’s a holiday… Want to help out your vet (veteran, not veter...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 4:13 PM
Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75
After being steadily crushed to the most inverted levels...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 11:28 AM
This morning's centerpiece was the nonfarm payrolls number coming in at 260 versus a median forecast of 200k. Additionally, the previous month was re...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 10:04 AM
I was walking down North Wabash in Chicago yesterday and a beggar (is that politically correct?) yelled out at me, “You’re the reason this country has...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 4:30 PM
Post Fed Weakness Keeping Markets on Edge
Wednesday's Fed reaction reverberated through overseas markets ove...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 3:49 PM
If you missed yesterday's explanation of the Fed's impact on mortgage rates, it's worth a read (assuming you'd like to understand the Fed's impact on ...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 12:33 PM
Powell did as was expected yesterday by acknowledging an eventual conversation about slowing the pace of rate hikes while at the same time reminding m...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 9:10 AM
Here at the Wisconsin MBA conference in The Dells, a portion of the talk is about buydowns and adjustable-rate programs. Certainly, they are legitimat...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 6:43 PM
The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 0.75% today and 30yr fixed mortgage rates moved moderately higher. Interestingly enough, those two things are fair...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 5:34 PM
Powell Sticks To Same Script (The One That Bonds Don't Really Like)
Today's much-anticipated Fed announcemen...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 11:57 AM
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year. 4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook. Those announcement days tend to produc...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 9:15 AM
“Why did New Jersey get all the toxic waste and California get all the lawyers? New Jersey got to pick first.” (Hey, I don’t write ‘em.) Quips aside, ...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 8:42 AM
A bit of easing in mortgage rates prompted a tiny uptick in refinancing during the week ended October 28, but overall mortgage application volume con...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today after spending the past two trading days moving higher. The average lender remains in the low 7% range for ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 4:52 PM
Both Sides of The Market Eagerly Trading Fed Cues
Stocks and bonds both began the day in stronger territory ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 12:43 PM
November kicked off with a strong showing from buyers after October's month-end session saw a fair amount of selling. But the gains didn't last long....
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 12:39 PM
Annual home price growth remained in double digits in September even as home sales and purchase mortgage volume continued their months’ long declines....
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 9:20 AM
Forget about layoffs, salary cuts, revenue problems. There’s extra leftover candy in the lunchroom! Uh… do we still have lunchrooms? I hope so. And Th...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates are fresh off their best week since at least July and their best winning streak (in terms of consecutive days moving lower) in well ove...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:29 PM
Late Day Volatility Surrounding Month-End and Corporate Issuance
The day got off to a slow start with bonds ...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 11:24 AM
Bonds are contending with a modest amount of weakness overnight, but not enough to derail our conclusion that bonds have leveled off after an overdone...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 9:49 AM
For me, the next ten days includes time in Chicago, the Wisconsin Dells, and Atlanta. It isn’t a scary agenda. At the ready for tonight’s Halloween fu...
