Thu, Jul 11 2024, 4:42 PM
Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data's Implications
Today's CPI data was hotly anticipated, to sa...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 11:40 AM
I have good news and bad news, which do you normally prefer receiving first? Today (7/11) is Slurpee Day at 7-Eleven (good news), where Citigroup exec...
Thu, Jul 11 2024, 10:47 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report for the bond market these days. The most important line item in that report is m...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 4:04 PM
No New Inspiration Ahead of Thursday's CPI
We've officially run out of ways to characterize the boring, side...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates have been in a narrow range for more than a month now with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate staying within striking distance of the...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 11:48 AM
“The only time I get asked for sex is on application forms.” Ba-dum-ching! Speaking of applications, most lenders will agree that the loan officer sho...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 11:07 AM
The most recent sideways slide began just before noon last Friday. Bonds had rallied in response to the jobs report with 10's closing at 4.29%. Sinc...
Wed, Jul 10 2024, 8:06 AM
Mortgage applications declined slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis last week but plummeted on an unadjusted basis during the July 4th week. The we...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform. Powell Punts. Waiting on CPI
Bonds showed slightly more notable signs of life this morning w...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market and bonds haven't been moving much over the past 3 days. That's resulted in very little chang...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 11:43 AM
“Your call is important to us. Please stay on the line until it is no longer important to you.” To state the obvious, serving customers can make or br...
Tue, Jul 9 2024, 9:54 AM
The new week is one day less new today, but no less sideways so far. Yields rose microscopically in the overnight session, but even that is a generou...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 4:10 PM
Uneventful Monday Leaves Bonds Little Changed
It was a quintessential summertime Monday to start the new wee...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 3:50 PM
Apart from July 1st, mortgage rates have fallen every day so far this month. The counterpoint is that only adds up to 4 business days so far. The o...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 11:48 AM
During a recent password audit, it was found that a blonde was using the following password: "MickeyMinniePlutoHueyLouieDeweyDonaldGoofySacramento". W...
Mon, Jul 8 2024, 10:42 AM
Bonds are finding their range in a perfectly inoffensive way to begin the new week. That's a victory considering a bit of weakness is never a surpris...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 4:33 PM
Orderly, Logical Rally as Bonds Reiterate Data Dependence
Today's recap isn't any different than the morning...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 4:21 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate may not be back under 7% just yet, but as of Friday, it is back below the levels seen last Friday. That fact is ...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 11:47 AM
Before the internet, everything worked fine without it, right? Just ask the members, whether they be depositors or borrowers, of credit union Patelco,...
Fri, Jul 5 2024, 11:24 AM
Today's playbook was fairly straightforward with bonds being likely to move in the direction suggested by the jobs report. The only challenge would h...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:18 PM
Data Over Politics, For Now
Several days ago, we were debating whether the presidential debate or the month-...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:09 PM
"Data dependent" is one of the most common phrases heard from the Federal Reserve these days when it comes to rate-setting policy. And while the Fed ...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 11:43 AM
Did you know that there were 2.5 million estimated people living in the newly independent nation of the United States in July 1776? Per the Census Bur...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 11:42 AM
The bond market will close at 2pm instead of 5pm today as a part of the Independence Day holiday (fully closed tomorrow). With only a few hours left,...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 8:20 AM
Higher interest rates knocked mortgage application volume back last week. But, while purchase volume appears to lose ground year-over-year, refinancin...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 5:00 PM
Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data
Tuesday helped buck the recent trend of frustratingl...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 4:48 PM
As is often the case with internet headlines these days, the headline overstates the reality on the ground--or at least over-dramatizes it. Consider...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 11:37 AM
It's been an interesting and frustrating couple of days for the bond market with yields spiking for reasons that leave many bond watchers guessing. A...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 11:36 AM
Cracker Jacks, Quaker Oats, Ferris Wheels, and 1893 Chicago have something in common. World’s Fairs, and World’s Expos, have pretty much gone away due...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 5:28 PM
Changing The Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
Often, if not most of the time, one can observe the core i...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates continued their frustrating and somewhat perplexing move higher today, thus bringing the average lender close to the highest levels sin...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 11:53 AM
Do you know anyone in a “Situationship?” You know, a romantic or sexual relationship that is not considered to be formal or established? People in man...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 11:45 AM
Friday's trading session was marked by a surprisingly weak reaction to economic data that should have helped bonds. In fact, it did at first, but thi...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 5:48 PM
The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week ...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 3:34 PM
What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data
Things looked good for the bond market earlier th...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 12:10 PM
This morning's most notable scheduled event and biggest potential market mover was the release of May's PCE price index, the Fed's favorite inflation ...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 11:38 AM
“They” say that as you age, life is like a toilet paper roll: the closer you get to the end, the faster it goes. Dang. But… 2024 almost half over? Wha...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 4:31 PM
Back in The Range Without Needing Too Much Convincing
Unlike yesterday, the overnight session sent bonds int...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates rose at the fastest pace in 2 weeks yesterday, but that wasn't a very tall order considering an almost perfect absence of movement lead...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 11:55 AM
“What did people from the Midwest call a small can of pop? A Minnesota.” (Say it out loud to your 3 rd grader.) While we’re on a “pop,” lenders in th...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 10:10 AM
It's been an odd morning for the bond market, but not in an objectionable way. In not so many words, bonds are rallying somewhat nicely despite an ab...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 3:53 PM
Sideways Trend Looking Shifty
Using Treasury yields as a road map, the past week and a half has been excruci...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 3:37 PM
After operating in an exceptionally narrow range since the beginning of last week, mortgage rates finally started doing something a bit different toda...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 11:28 AM
May turned out to be a dismal month for home sales. Sales of existing homes dipped a modest 0.7 percent from April, but new home sales fared far worse...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 11:25 AM
“Don’t waste a good crisis.” Continuing data breaches constitute a crisis, the latest example being LendingTree Inc., cloud-based data analytics firm ...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 10:31 AM
The absence of relevant domestic market movers has been a theme all week. While that has gone hand in hand with relatively uninspired bond market mov...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 8:08 AM
Slightly lower mortgage rates failed to impress potential borrowers last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a mea...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 3:06 PM
Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
We've increasingly revisited the concept of the "insi...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 2:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been flatter than the earth according to the flat earth society. Much like the actual earth in many areas in the middle of the co...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 12:01 PM
Two major home price indexes had very different conclusions about the growth of annual home prices in April, but each showed a significant month-over...
