Today we hear from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We can expect no change to overnight fed funds. As pointed yesterday by Dr. Paul Brewbaker, the economist who spoke here at the MBA Hawai’i conference, the Fed can only shoot at one target at a time: inflation or employment. They have to pick one and have picked inflation. So far so good. Besides that, he tore into tariffs, and their result on what individuals and countries do in response to them as evidenced by what happened during the first Trump Administration: China moving its manufacturing facilities to non-tariff countries to circumvent the tariffs. But back to the Fed… Industry vet Brent Nyitray observed, “Meanwhile, inflation is almost to the target and Fed is running out of excuses to keep rates 100 basis points too tight. The Fed is making a bet that inflation will spike from tariffs, and that will dominate all other economic effects. At this point, they are not being cautious; they are being obstinate.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TRUE. TRUE cuts time to critical loan events from days to minutes by using background AI workers to instantly validate data and automate underwriting decisions. Today’s has an Interview with A&D Mortgage’s Rich Hoffmann on tips and tricks for a successful merger between two mortgage companies, and how product expansion efforts will separate successful origination companies in the future.)

Products, Software, and Services for Brokers and Lenders

“Heard of NFTYDoor? We’re a mortgage fintech platform backed by Homebridge Financial Services, offering the fastest and simplest digital HELOC in all 50 states, available as wholesale broker or correspondent, and exclusively distributed via Homebridge Wholesale and REMN Wholesale. We’re on pace to pay out over $50M in commissions this year to MLOs for the most streamlined HELOCs you’ll ever do, and for a product your clients need today. Not only can you earn quick commissions, but you also position yourself for future refi and purchase cycles by offering a best-in-class product today. See it to believe it. Reach out to your Homebridge Wholesale or REMN Wholesale AE or email seth@nftydoor.com to learn more about NFTYDoor.”

“Symmetry Lending offers a great tool for Customer Retention to deflect your local and national competitors from poaching your HELOC customers: Symmetry’s Stand-Alone HELOC Program! Available up to 89.99% CLTV on primary residence up to $500k. We can also lend on 2-4 Units, Manufactured Homes and Condo with no Condo Questionnaire or Condo Approval. Owner Occupied, 2nd Homes and Investment Properties Available. Need a full appraisal? We allow you to order the Appraisal (must be in your company’s name). No Pre-payment Penalties, EPOs, or Access Hold Period. Easy Processing- Just Need 1003, Our 2 Forms, Income Docs, and Mortgage Statement for Initial Approval Decision. Reach out today for more information and how we can help!”

Lenders, start your engines. Our friends at Down Payment Resource, the OG of DPA, are revving things up this month. With over 2,500 DPA programs nationwide, they’re pretty confident there’s one for just about every buyer: first-timers, repeaters, teachers, nurses, and even folks who think they won’t qualify. Zillow thought so too. Since integrating DPA into its listings, more than 5 million home shoppers at the site have kicked DPA’s tires. So, here’s the challenge: Visit DPR’s website and enter a few basic details (your own or a borrower’s) to test drive DPA. It’s fast, and it’s free. Plus, with an average benefit of $18,000 and the ability to lower an applicant's LTV by an average 6%, it just might be the horsepower you need right now to get more buyers across the finish line.

“Vista Point, the leader in CES fundings and securitizations across the industry, released its latest Correspondent pricing enhancements designed to help you strategically capture more valuable borrowers that need cash: today’s high-credit, equity-rich clients. We’ve also fine-tuned pricing for you to take advantage of the current purchase money market, as well as improving your investor offering of PPP DSCR 1st and 2nd liens. Vista Point’s pricing improvements include up to 0.375% on 720+ FICO between 65-90% CLTV; 0.50% improvement on P&L and WVOE loans (1st liens); up to 0.375% on 3-5 Year PPPs CES Non-Owner and DSCR; and, up to 0.25% improvement on purchase transactions. In addition, we removed our rural hit for 1.00% improvement. These are only a few of the highlights that Vista Point has implemented as we continue to enhance our innovative CES and non-QM offerings. Visit vistapointmortgage.com or contact us at info@vistapointmtg.com for more information.”

Marketing Products

“Frustrated with the costs of maintaining your tech stack? The process of managing multiple tools to manage your business is not only financially expensive, but it can also cost you time and productivity. That’s why Cotality developed Araya, your single source for Intelligent Marketing Solutions. With our easy-to-use, intuitive platform, you can easily keep in touch with past customers with personalized, automated messaging and understand when they are in the market for a new home or other lending product. Plus, you can get the insights you need to uncover new areas of opportunity and identify potential networking partners. All backed by Cotality’s gold standard property data and insights, covering over 99.9% of U.S. properties. To see more about how we’re helping originators succeed in any market, check out our comprehensive suite of solutions and schedule a demo with us today!”

“Your next client could be one scroll away. In 3 Next-Level Social Media Strategies to Build a Magnetic Brand in Mortgage, Seroka shows you how to attract clients through authentic storytelling, strategic engagement, and thought leadership. Building a magnetic brand on social isn’t just about posting consistently… It’s about posting with authenticity, having a strategy, and sharing content relevant to your audience. Today, social media isn’t just for marketing; It’s where trust is built, relationships begin, and conversions happen. Seroka Marketing & PR can help you break through the noise with compelling content, full-service platform management, and engagement strategies that create real connections. Ready to become the go-to brand in your market? Contact us to elevate your social presence.”

STRATMOR Technology Insight Study is Underway

The 2025 STRATMOR Technology Insight® Study is now underway. The first part of the study, the Lender Intelligence Survey, is live and focused on how lenders really feel about the tech they use every day. From LOS and CRM systems to underwriting automation and servicing platforms, this is the only independent study capturing lender experiences with mortgage tech systems and vendor support. Lenders who complete the survey will receive a summary report of 2025 Technology Insight® Study results at no cost.

This is actionable intel to help guide tech decisions in today’s competitive environment. Take the survey and help shape the future of mortgage tech. The survey is open to lenders only. Questions? Reach out to STRATMOR’s Technology Insight team for details: technologyinsights@stratmorgroup.com.

Compliance in a New Environment

As regulatory pressure eases, banks face a new kind of scrutiny, one driven by rising client expectations and real-time service standards. In her timely piece, Why Superior Client Service Is the New Compliance Strategy in a Deregulatory Era, Katie Wilson argues that trust is no longer earned through box-checking but through seamless, transparent, and proactive service. With fintechs encroaching and traditional oversight loosening, institutions that treat service as a strategic function, not a support role, will be the ones that thrive. Read on to discover why in today’s banking landscape, service is the strategy.

Capital Markets

We finally saw some minor “flight to safety” yesterday after President Trump did some saber-rattling by saying everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately, that Iran's Supreme Leader is an easy target, and that his patience with Iran is wearing thin. Treasuries responded predominately to that news, but also to a batch of weaker-than-expected economic data that included May retail sales (down 0.9 percent month-over-month), May industrial production (down 0.2 percent month-over-month), and the June NAHB Housing Market Index (actual 32; consensus 36; prior 34). Keep in mind that all the above, in theory, leads to lower rates.

Accordingly, yesterday’s $23 billion auction of 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) went very well, showing strong demand from investors as rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices have added yet another level of uncertainty to the outlook for consumer prices. The final yield came in lower than expected, a sign that buyers were willing to accept a smaller return in exchange for inflation protection, suggesting high confidence in these bonds. Nearly all the bonds (>93 percent) were bought by investors outside of the big dealer banks, which is more than usual. The auction also saw a healthy level of interest, with more than two-and-a-half times as many bids as bonds available, better than the recent average. Leading up to the auction, prices on 5-year TIPS were already climbing, and after the strong results were announced, they continued to rise, showing that investors remained eager to buy them even after the sale.

Mortgage applications for new home purchases fell 4.5 percent compared to the previous year and dropped 9 percent from April, according to the May 2025 data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). This decline, unadjusted for seasonal patterns, reflects growing economic uncertainty, rising mortgage rates, and increased competition from the existing home market. New home sales are estimated to have declined 12.1 percent month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 631k units, with actual (unadjusted) sales falling to 58k units. Loan types showed 47.3 percent of applications were for conventional loans, 37.8 percent for FHA, 13.8 percent for VA, and 1.0 percent for USDA/RHS. The average loan size rose slightly to $379,209. The MBA’s Builder Application Survey, which often leads official Census Bureau data, suggests buyer hesitation amid shifting market conditions.

Ahead of tomorrow’s holiday, today brings the latest decision from the Federal Open Market Committee, where the Fed is expected to hold rates steady and indicate rates are expected to remain on hold at the current range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, likely until at least September. The statement and updated SEP will be released at 2:00pm ET followed by Chair Powell’s press conference. This all comes amid a deteriorating economic backdrop: retail sales show that consumption is struggling and the labor market has softened noticeably. By holding rates steady, the Fed is betting that inflation will spike from tariffs; keeping rates around 100-basis points currently above “neutral” doesn’t have much other justification.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications decreasing 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. We’ve also received weekly jobless claims (245k, as expected; 1.945 million continuing claims) and May housing starts and building permits (1.256 million, -10 percent, much less than expected; permits -2.0 percent). Later today, the Treasury will announce the auction sizes for month-end supply (consisting of $69 billion 2-year, $70 billion 5-year, $44 billion 7-year notes, and $28 billion reopened 2-year FRNs), and markets will also receive Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Before the open, Sweden’s Riksbank was out with its latest monetary policy decision: no change in the repo rate from 2.25 percent. With all of this as a backdrop, we find Agency MBS prices slightly better than Tuesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.94, and the 10-year yielding 4.36 after closing yesterday at 4.39 percent.