Happy Summer Solstice, and happy 50th birthday to the movie Jaws. Back then, for security, all we had to remember was where we hid our house key, or the combo to the lock on our school locker. Now, our dozens of logins and passwords are regularly either forgotten or stolen, the latest being 16 billion credentials stolen, announced this week. In other IT news, a few CIOs have written to me to point out that Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” that the Senate is debating contains a 10-year moratorium on changes to state artificial intelligence (AI) laws. 10 years? Given the rate of change, how about 10 days? The technology used to collect paystubs has certainly changed over the years, but what is the definition of a “paystub?” It turns out that the answer is not so simple, and, as Argyle’s Shmulik Fishman points out, varies by state! A good description of the information that should be included can be found here. It doesn’t help matters when there are dozens of companies that help individuals write their own paystub (aka, forge) for whatever purpose. Hence the rise of verification services. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TRUE. TRUE cuts time to critical loan events from days to minutes by using background AI workers to instantly validate data and automate underwriting decisions. Today’s has an interview with Verisk’s Kingsley Greenland on why an unusually active hurricane season may collide with weakening forecasting infrastructure, leadership gaps at FEMA, and political headwinds.)
Products, Software, and Services for Brokers and Lenders
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In today’s episode of Last Word at 10am PT, Brian Vieaux, Kevin Peranio, and Courtney Thompson will unpack the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady and react to FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s call for Chair Jerome Powell to resign. They'll also dive into Bayview’s $1.3 billion acquisition of Guild Holdings and highlight key moves in the sports world, including the Lakers’ ownership change and the Tigers’ league-leading record.
The Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry, is up and going. The site features third-party providers offering powerful partnerships and solutions driving innovation in the space. We’ll be adding new vendors daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.
Behind the Scenes, AI is at Work
In Reimagining Mortgage Manufacturing: The Rise of Background AI, Steve Butler explores how quiet, behind-the-scenes artificial intelligence is poised to transform the mortgage industry, not by replacing people but by eliminating the friction they face. Moving beyond hype and half-measures, Butler outlines how full-stage automation can revolutionize loan processing, from document indexing to instant approvals. If you're ready to see what real AI-driven efficiency looks like in action and how it can finally deliver on decades of broken tech promises, this article is a must-read.
Climate News, Disasters, and Financial Losses
President Trump appointed David Richardson to FEMA… And then news came out that the staff of the Federal Emergency Management Agency were confused and dispirited after the acting head of the agency said during a daily briefing that he had not been aware the country has a hurricane season, according to three sources familiar with the meeting.
You don’t have to live on the hurricane-prone Gulf Coast or in “Tornado Alley” to face high property insurance costs. At least one state in each of the nation’s four census regions (the Northeast, South, Midwest, and West) made the list of the most expensive in which to insure a mortgaged home. Property insurance costs for mortgaged homes, property insurance costs without a mortgage, States with low-cost property insurance, and selected monthly owner costs.
Learn more, view United States Census Bureau’s America Counts: Stories Behind the Numbers.
Cutting back staffing doesn’t change Mother Nature. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1, following a devastating 2024 season that saw 18 named storms. Of these, 11 developed into hurricanes and five intensified into major (Category 3 or higher) hurricanes, including Hurricane Helene. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes until November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
As the Atlantic hurricane season begins, meteorologists are working to improve forecasting and warnings for the hazard that causes the most hurricane deaths: freshwater flooding. With climate change, storms are becoming bigger and wetter and are bringing large amounts of rain to inland areas, often with deadly consequences. At least 249 people died during Hurricane Helene and its aftermath, according to the National Hurricane Center. Of those, 94 fatalities are attributed to rainfall flooding. The housing crunch is North Carolina is even worse.
PHH Mortgage Corporation posted a new disaster declaration for Missouri DR-4876. Review PHH announcements for all disaster declared counties, requirements, procedures, and conditions.
On 6/9/2025, with DR-4867, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to three Missouri counties affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, and flooding on 5/16/2025. View AmeriHome Mortgage 20250602-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.
Capital Markets
As was universally expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday held the federal funds target unchanged at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent. This marks six months of no rate changes after the FOMC cut the target a full percentage point between September and December 2024. Fed Chair Powell warned that tariff-driven economic uncertainty and inflation risk continued to complicate the central bank’s bid to ease monetary policy in earnest. However, updated projections revealed a more cautious stance amid rising economic uncertainty.
The Fed Chair reinforced that the Fed needs more clarity before acting, especially on the inflationary impact of the recent tariff hikes. He pointed out that although the current labor market and inflation levels look relatively healthy, future risks from trade policy and geopolitical conflict could push inflation higher and weaken job growth. These stagflation-like threats are difficult for the Fed to counter effectively. Powell stressed that while the economy gives the Fed the luxury of patience, the costs of tariffs will eventually be passed along to consumers, adding to inflation pressures.
Bill Pulte, the head of the federal agency responsible for overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac but does not oversee the Federal Reserve, promptly called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign. Donald Trump suggested appointing himself to the Federal Reserve, and called Powell destructive and a “real dummy.”
Markets, meanwhile, are less patient. Futures traders are increasingly betting that the Fed will become more dovish (possibly after Powell’s term ends in mid-2026) but are still pricing in nearly 50 basis points of rate cuts this year. Some argue that the Fed is simply aligning its forecasts with market expectations, using the dot plot as a communication tool rather than a policy commitment. But the market’s faith in the Fed’s steady-hand approach may waver if the economic fallout from tariffs and conflict proves more severe than projected. While investors pore over every word from the FOMC, it’s clear that the real drivers of rate policy may lie outside the Fed’s control.
Residential construction is slowing down as builders and developers face high borrowing costs, ongoing economic uncertainty, and tough supply conditions. In May, housing starts dropped 9.8 percent, mostly due to a steep decline in apartment and condo projects, which tend to fluctuate more. Single-family home construction inched up a bit, but overall building activity fell to an annual pace of 1.26 million units, the lowest level since the height of the pandemic in 2020. On top of that, fewer building permits and declining builder confidence point to more weakness ahead. While home building has held up surprisingly well despite years of high interest rates, it now seems that those rates are finally starting to slow things down more noticeably.
Following yesterday’s Juneteenth holiday, markets returned today to an economic calendar that was kicked off by Philadelphia Fed manufacturing. Later today brings leading indicators for May. It is worth noting that after the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, yesterday the Bank of England also held its key rate, the Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark rate to zero and signaled it’s ready to go deeper to protect the franc, and Norway’s Norges Bank surprisingly cut borrowing costs too.
Yesterday’s market holiday and what’s sure to be a lightly attended session today imply that the post-Fed reaction should set a tone that will carry into early next week, barring more dramatic news from the Middle East. Monday the 2-year was yielding 3.97 and the 10-year was at 4.44; We begin today with Agency MBS prices are little changed from the last trading day, the 2-year yielding 3.96, and the 10-year yielding 4.42 after closing Wednesday at 4.40 percent.
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