Wed, Apr 9 2025, 5:38 PM
Bonds Have a Lot On Their Minds (And The Mega Reversal After The Tariff Pause)
There are actually too man...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 4:29 PM
For anyone remotely tuned into financial news, it will come as no surprise that this has been a crazy week and today has been a crazy day. This is ju...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 11:13 AM
How ‘bout some good news? Last week’s apps skyrocketed, and… Builders are sitting on a pile of unsold homes and are slashing prices and offering mortg...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 9:14 AM
MBS are down the better part of a point and 10yr yields are up 14+ bps at 4.44%. Another huge loss that leaves market watchers grasping for answers. ...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 5:37 PM
Heavy Losses as Bonds Brace For Tougher Times
This morning's commentary suggested that "liberation day volat...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 4:43 PM
While no one can be sure exactly how things will pan out in the long run, the market is currently expressing extreme disapproval of the new tariff pla...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 11:43 AM
Today I travel to the Dallas area for a Logan Finance event, and this comment from a friend last night is echoing in my ears: “Becoming an adult is th...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 10:47 AM
The past 2 days of selling in the bond market may seem dramatic, but they make solid sense in the bigger picture. Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day" w...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:47 PM
Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market
It was an extremely volatile, frustrating, and downright we...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:00 PM
Tariff volatility giveth and taketh from interest rates. Up until Friday afternoon, it's been mostly "giveth-ing." In other words, the prospect of t...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 12:02 PM
It's been an interesting Monday so far for the bond market (and stock market for that matter). Despite a big risk-off move (stocks and yields lower) t...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 11:20 AM
“Many people told Beethoven that he would never be a musician because he was deaf. Did he listen?” This week hundreds of mortgage bankers descend on W...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 5:19 PM
Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
MBS ended Friday right about where they ended T...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 4:29 PM
This week is ending with the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate at its lowest level since early October, 2024. The only way to be disappointed ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 2:59 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the latest mortgage application data this week showing a modest 1.6% decrease from the previous week. ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:41 AM
Ahead of next week’s MBA Advocacy event in Washington DC, I received this note from an industry vet. “With the continued consolidation into the large ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:37 AM
Despite today being "jobs report Friday," and despite the jobs report perennially having the power to cause big volatility for financial markets, over...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 4:48 PM
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day
On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going t...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 3:42 PM
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 11:43 AM
The Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times” can easily be applied to the residential mortgage business in the last month or so. This week a...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 11:19 AM
While plenty of uncertainty remains over the finer points of Wednesday afternoon's tariff announcement, markets have heard enough to brace for impact ...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:44 PM
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directio...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon. That's when th...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 12:06 PM
This morning's ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned. Despite coming out ...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 11:44 AM
Does anyone use the term “elderly” anymore? Websters defines elderly as “anyone past middle age,” “middle age” being 45-64. Prepare for a fight if you...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 4:19 PM
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously wor...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 3:29 PM
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on t...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 11:41 AM
This ain’t no April Fools economic news: not only has Hooters declared bankruptcy, but apparently there is yet another push to have credit unions pay ...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 10:33 AM
There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher. T...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:48 PM
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors rea...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:30 PM
"Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 11:48 AM
It’s been three years since Credit Plus re-branded as Xactus, and now another name brand in the mortgage world has a new name. Corelogic has become Co...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 10:34 AM
Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for fin...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:34 PM
First thing's first before anyone gets too excited: yes, rates fell on Friday, but not significantly. The average lender is still a bit closer to the...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:16 PM
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) tracks purchase contract signings that have not yet turned into Existing Home Sa...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:14 PM
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
It was one thing when bonds were only modestly s...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 4:19 PM
This week's update on refinance application demand accurately reflects the fact that rates came into the week near their recent highs, but managed to ...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 3:52 PM
It's not uncommon for certain medications to come with warnings about avoiding certain activities like driving or operating heavy machinery due to the...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 3:29 PM
There are two dominant home price indices released each month in the U.S. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is responsible for the most all-i...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 11:49 AM
“What is the difference between the government and organized crime? Only one of them is organized.” (Suitable for any administration.) Government poli...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 9:34 AM
Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to appr...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 4:28 PM
Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data
For the 3rd day in a row, the bond market logged a rathe...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 3:26 PM
With the exception of Monday, which saw a medium-sized uptick in mortgage rates, the rest of the week has been fairly calm in terms of volatility. Unf...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 11:21 AM
Here in San Diego at the MCT Exchange 2025, with nearly 500 registrants, the agenda’s keynote speaker and one of the panels was composed of Fannie and...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 8:58 AM
If you're just joining us, here's a brief history of the last few decades as it concerns inflation and interest rates. Inflation was an overblown conc...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 5:27 PM
Narrow Trading, Weaker Drift; MBS Live Threads Intro
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but found a bit...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 4:58 PM
It depends what one's definition of "recent" is, but if it involves the past few weeks, mortgage rates were at their highest recent levels both yester...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 11:41 AM
Anyone who thinks politics doesn’t impact residential lending isn’t, frankly, paying attention. Let’s start with something simple, like… interest rate...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 11:37 AM
The first 3 days of this week have all generally seen yields at the highest levels in a month (or perhaps in "at least 28 days" considering Feb's day ...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 4:25 PM
Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains
In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as ...
