Wed, Jul 3 2024, 2:09 PM
"Data dependent" is one of the most common phrases heard from the Federal Reserve these days when it comes to rate-setting policy. And while the Fed ...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 11:43 AM
Did you know that there were 2.5 million estimated people living in the newly independent nation of the United States in July 1776? Per the Census Bur...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 11:42 AM
The bond market will close at 2pm instead of 5pm today as a part of the Independence Day holiday (fully closed tomorrow). With only a few hours left,...
Wed, Jul 3 2024, 8:20 AM
Higher interest rates knocked mortgage application volume back last week. But, while purchase volume appears to lose ground year-over-year, refinancin...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 5:00 PM
Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data
Tuesday helped buck the recent trend of frustratingl...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 4:48 PM
As is often the case with internet headlines these days, the headline overstates the reality on the ground--or at least over-dramatizes it. Consider...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 11:37 AM
It's been an interesting and frustrating couple of days for the bond market with yields spiking for reasons that leave many bond watchers guessing. A...
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 11:36 AM
Cracker Jacks, Quaker Oats, Ferris Wheels, and 1893 Chicago have something in common. World’s Fairs, and World’s Expos, have pretty much gone away due...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 5:28 PM
Changing The Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
Often, if not most of the time, one can observe the core i...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates continued their frustrating and somewhat perplexing move higher today, thus bringing the average lender close to the highest levels sin...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 11:53 AM
Do you know anyone in a “Situationship?” You know, a romantic or sexual relationship that is not considered to be formal or established? People in man...
Mon, Jul 1 2024, 11:45 AM
Friday's trading session was marked by a surprisingly weak reaction to economic data that should have helped bonds. In fact, it did at first, but thi...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 5:48 PM
The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week ...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 3:34 PM
What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data
Things looked good for the bond market earlier th...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 12:10 PM
This morning's most notable scheduled event and biggest potential market mover was the release of May's PCE price index, the Fed's favorite inflation ...
Fri, Jun 28 2024, 11:38 AM
“They” say that as you age, life is like a toilet paper roll: the closer you get to the end, the faster it goes. Dang. But… 2024 almost half over? Wha...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 4:31 PM
Back in The Range Without Needing Too Much Convincing
Unlike yesterday, the overnight session sent bonds int...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates rose at the fastest pace in 2 weeks yesterday, but that wasn't a very tall order considering an almost perfect absence of movement lead...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 11:55 AM
“What did people from the Midwest call a small can of pop? A Minnesota.” (Say it out loud to your 3 rd grader.) While we’re on a “pop,” lenders in th...
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 10:10 AM
It's been an odd morning for the bond market, but not in an objectionable way. In not so many words, bonds are rallying somewhat nicely despite an ab...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 3:53 PM
Sideways Trend Looking Shifty
Using Treasury yields as a road map, the past week and a half has been excruci...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 3:37 PM
After operating in an exceptionally narrow range since the beginning of last week, mortgage rates finally started doing something a bit different toda...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 11:28 AM
May turned out to be a dismal month for home sales. Sales of existing homes dipped a modest 0.7 percent from April, but new home sales fared far worse...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 11:25 AM
“Don’t waste a good crisis.” Continuing data breaches constitute a crisis, the latest example being LendingTree Inc., cloud-based data analytics firm ...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 10:31 AM
The absence of relevant domestic market movers has been a theme all week. While that has gone hand in hand with relatively uninspired bond market mov...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 8:08 AM
Slightly lower mortgage rates failed to impress potential borrowers last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a mea...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 3:06 PM
Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
We've increasingly revisited the concept of the "insi...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 2:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been flatter than the earth according to the flat earth society. Much like the actual earth in many areas in the middle of the co...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 12:01 PM
Two major home price indexes had very different conclusions about the growth of annual home prices in April, but each showed a significant month-over...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 11:54 AM
Everyone’s above average, right? If you are a lender and making money, you’re in the majority. It’s not that you’re not special, it’s just that with c...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 3:36 PM
No Major Data, No Major Movement
It was a snoozer of a day for bonds with yields and MBS prices holding well...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 3:26 PM
Most mortgage lenders offer mortgage rates in increments of 0.125% (i.e. 6.875, 7.0, 7.125, 7.25, etc.). As such, a particularly notable day of mortg...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 11:41 AM
“I saved a bunch of money on my car insurance by… switching to reverse and leaving the scene.” The word on the street is that Guaranteed Rate is chang...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 10:18 AM
With last Friday's range in 10yr yields of roughly 4.22 to 4.27, there was narrow window for today being an "inside day" (i.e. when the previous sessi...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 4:41 PM
Ultimately an Uneventful Week Despite Micro-Volatility
This morning featured an overnight rally driven by we...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 4:37 PM
After a rocky start to the year, things began to improve for rates and the inflation outlook in May. June took the improvement to the next level, but ...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 11:27 AM
Don Henley’s “Boys of Summer” was a hit 40 years ago. (Yes, 40 years.) There are plenty of beaches in Hawai’i, but here in Honolulu at the MBAH confer...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 10:56 AM
S&P Global (formerly Markit) PMIs are the standard PMI around the world, but have long been second fiddle to ISM PMIs in the U.S. That's certainly st...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 3:26 PM
Counterintuitive Weakness Early, But Inconsequential in Bigger Picture
The past two trading days each had th...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 3:12 PM
The bond market was closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. As such, mortgage lenders were either closed or unable to update mortgage rates b...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:49 AM
Taylor Swift sang of a “Cruel Summer” and vendors and lenders hope that it isn’t. “If you ever get cold, stand in the corner of a room for a while. Th...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:45 AM
The rate of both construction permitting and residential construction starts fell in May, with permitting losing ground for the third straight month. ...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:07 AM
On Tuesday, bonds had an initial, positive reaction to the Retail Sales data that clearly ended mere minutes after the release. Yields trended slight...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 8:31 AM
There was a slight increase in mortgage application volume during the week ended June 14. For a change, it was accounted for by the home purchasing co...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 4:13 PM
Additional Mid-Day Gains Independent of Data and Events
Bonds traded the day in two distinct sections. Firs...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates began the week with a modest move back up and over the 7% threshold, but managed to erase some of those losses today. The improvement ...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 11:34 AM
It’s been 55 years since Bryan Adams’ Summer of ’69. (That’s 55 years prior to the latest CFPB action against a lender.) Here in Hawai’i, the populati...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 10:19 AM
It's nearly impossible to avoid hearing the phrase "data dependent" when following financial markets these days and this morning's movement is the lat...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:40 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Give Back Some of Last Week's Gains
After rallying from roughly 4.45 to 4.22% l...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher to start the new week. With the average top tier 30yr fixed rate just under 7% on Friday, this meant a move to j...
