Tue, Oct 3 2023, 11:25 AM
In the wake of the Fed announcement from 2 weeks ago, one key component of our bearish thesis was that bonds had to brace for the potential impact tha...
Tue, Oct 3 2023, 11:00 AM
How will you always know that this Commentary is not produced by some AI thingy? Because of mistakes like yesterday, leaving Illinois off the list of ...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 4:39 PM
The average didn't quite make it back to the multidecade highs seen last week, but the average borrower would see little--if any--difference in today'...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 4:39 PM
Bonds Blasted by Data and Stop-Gap
The stop-gap bill that averted the government shutdown was worth some ins...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 10:32 AM
As President Jimmy Carter celebrated his 99th birthday seven months into hospice, welcome to the 4th quarter! (Will lenders experience any “Q-4-ia”? S...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 10:05 AM
Nearly 2 weeks ago, the Fed announcement (specifically, the economic projections and dot plot) kicked off a repricing trend in the bond market otherwi...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 5:57 PM
It depends quite a bit on the lender in question, but at some point between yesterday morning and this morning, the average lender dropped rates at th...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty
Bonds improved moderately overnight, adding onto ...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 12:24 PM
The trading day began on a fairly positive note with a strong hand-off from Europe and reasonably friendly inflation data at 8:30am. After a few mome...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 10:25 AM
Shutdown or no shutdown, the National Park Service’s Fat Bear Week is approaching, focused on how these behemoths tip the scale. Here’s your tip of th...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 4:11 PM
Bonds Bounce Despite Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground overnight and logically added to the losses after the m...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 3:28 PM
The past few days have seen rates surge to new multi-decade highs with the average lender quoting 7.6+ for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios....
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 12:47 PM
Pending home sales failed to add a third month onto the mini rally it staged in June and July. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its P...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 12:09 PM
Bonds lost ground modestly overnight. Contrast that to the past few trading sessions that have seen gains in Europe followed by selling in the US. T...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 10:23 AM
Seen on someone’s laptop here in Phoenix: “If Pete Davidson can date a Kardashian, you can be a homeowner.” From a business viewpoint, if you think mo...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 5:10 PM
It's with no great pleasure (none of any kind, for that matter) that we find ourselves in a position to report, yet again, that mortgage rates have sa...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 3:36 PM
What is "Repricing" in The Broader Context, And How is it Moving Markets?
We've been here before and we'll b...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 12:26 PM
Normally, when the bond market is in a pervasive selling trend, we'll see a day or two of reprieve amidst the carnage. Frequently, such days are frie...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 10:44 AM
Today I head to Phoenix area for the AzAMP annual conference, and am reminded that, “Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.” The mortgag...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 7:12 AM
The highest mortgage rates in 20+ years drove another decline in mortgage applications during the week ended September 22. The Mortgage Bankers Associ...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 4:28 PM
In terms of day-over-day changes, today's mortgage rate movement was forgettable. The average borrower wouldn't see much of a difference from yesterd...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 4:25 PM
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish, No Real Reason
Bonds improved in the overnight session, but reversed course t...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 2:11 PM
August sales of newly constructed single-family homes failed to match the robust numbers from July but were significantly better than those a year ear...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 12:12 PM
The seemingly never-ending sea of red continues. And for good measure, this one began with a bit of hope in the form of an overnight rally that got 1...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 11:16 AM
Home prices have resumed their upward climb despite mortgage rates that have doubled post-COVID. According to Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 10:27 AM
As if lenders and vendors don’t have enough other stuff to worry about, the budgetary standoff in the U.S. doesn't look like it will abate soon, raisi...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 4:21 PM
The average lender was already very close to multi-decade highs for 30yr fixed mortgage rates last Thursday afternoon, but a modest recovery on Friday...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 4:10 PM
Sell Now and Wait For Something to Convince You to Buy
Bonds began the week with another move to long-term y...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 12:04 PM
We continue to anticipate a broadly sideways trend this week although that expectations is being put to the test in early trading. Yields in the long...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 10:00 AM
Are you gradually eating dinner earlier? Join the trend. Want to know another trend that isn’t so benign? Along the lines of the STRATMOR piece below,...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 5:48 PM
Mortgage rates actually recovered a bit on Friday as the underlying bond market experienced a modest correction after spiking to the weakest levels in...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 3:59 PM
Waiting For October
It seems like September only just arrived, but our sights are already set on October as ...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 12:17 PM
In a rather classic pattern, a hawkish read on the Fed gave way to international selling on Thursday. From there, a token correction was slightly mor...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 9:59 AM
Sometimes I send this Commentary out from some pretty nice places, sometimes not. Today comes from the tarmac at the Newark Airport, in Row 22, sittin...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 4:09 PM
Rates moved only moderately higher on Wednesday after the Fed rocked the bond market with its updated rate forecasts. To reiterate yesterday's analys...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 4:07 PM
New Yield Highs After Post-Fed Follow-Through and Econ Data
Any time the market goes to sleep on a Fed day i...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 12:27 PM
Wednesday was a confirmation of a hawkish Fed that won't care about the economy until it sees actual damage, and even then, only if that damage coinci...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 10:10 AM
Who can think of September 21st without thinking about Earth, Wind, and Fire? Yesterday I was on a United Airlines flight out of San Francisco to Sava...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 4:50 PM
The Fed did not hike its policy rate today, but it did release updated forecasts that showed the average Fed member expects rates to be half a percent...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 4:43 PM
Higher For Longer
Today's Fed announcement was largely as expected: no rate hike, "data dependent," and "hig...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have been robust slowed in recent month...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 11:53 AM
Learning how to make a big deal out of every Fed day is a requirement for passing the market commentary test. But the often-overlooked extra credit c...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 11:16 AM
Today is 092023 and I head to Savannah, GA for the SECUREN (credit union) conference. Did you know that the last day of 2023 is 123123? In other “fun ...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 11:09 AM
Mortgage application activity bounced back from the holiday-shortened prior week but is still running significantly below historic levels. The Mortg...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 4:51 PM
The FOMC (Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) is what most people are referring to when they say "the Fed." This is the group that meets 8 times ...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 4:30 PM
Bonds Get Pre-Fed Jitters After a Mostly Flat Day
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory, mostly...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 11:15 AM
Results of the August Residential Construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development were decidedly m...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 10:42 AM
Arrr, me hearties! Last week, there be a mighty surge towards them long-term highs in the Treasury yields. But alas! With no bounty of econ data to st...
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates began the day in slightly higher territory, but recovered after lenders offered mid-day price improvements. These sorts of mid-day cha...
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 4:08 PM
Uneventful Monday Fits Fed Week Narrative
After last week's economic data ebbed and bonds sold-off with Euro...
