Tue, May 13 2025, 4:26 PM
Tuesday brought the release of an economic report that has frequently been responsible for big swings in mortgage rates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI...
Tue, May 13 2025, 11:45 AM
No one in places like Florida or Myrtle Beach or Colorado’s Glenwood Springs wants to wake up to a headline, sensationalist or not, saying, “Vacation ...
Tue, May 13 2025, 10:49 AM
Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the rel...
Mon, May 12 2025, 5:07 PM
Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter?
At times these day, it may seem like all news is bad news ...
Mon, May 12 2025, 4:32 PM
Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates bec...
Mon, May 12 2025, 11:44 AM
Nearly a thousand of us head to Manhattan in less than a week for the MBA’s Secondary Conference. In 2025 Q1, the median asking rent in New York City ...
Mon, May 12 2025, 11:01 AM
10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant r...
Fri, May 9 2025, 5:07 PM
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly mov...
Fri, May 9 2025, 4:30 PM
Whether it's today vs yesterday, or today vs the end of last week, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is just a hair lower. Today's improv...
Fri, May 9 2025, 11:52 AM
Here’s something that our Fed can’t do anything about, inflation-wise: coconut prices have doubled due to extreme weather events. (More on weather and...
Fri, May 9 2025, 11:04 AM
A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed ...
Thu, May 8 2025, 4:52 PM
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with...
Thu, May 8 2025, 4:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K....
Thu, May 8 2025, 11:42 AM
“Why did the homeowner take so long in remodeling his home? He had trouble with da siding.” There are LOs, or correspondent investors, who have spent ...
Thu, May 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims ...
Wed, May 7 2025, 4:34 PM
Just as Underwhelming as Expected
No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even...
Wed, May 7 2025, 3:35 PM
There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed...
Wed, May 7 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pa...
Wed, May 7 2025, 11:48 AM
Most good loan originators are keenly aware of demographics in their area. Aren’t you tired of talking about a lack of inventory and builders’ supply ...
Wed, May 7 2025, 11:04 AM
Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular rea...
Tue, May 6 2025, 4:10 PM
10yr Auction to The Rescue
Today's 10yr Treasury auction was the only relevant calendar event in terms of po...
Tue, May 6 2025, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged for the average lender this morning, thanks to a modest improvement in the bond market overnight. Rates were on course ...
Tue, May 6 2025, 11:54 AM
This is the month of the MBA’s National Secondary in Manhattan. For some trivia, the nickname "The Big Apple" originated in the 1920s in reference to ...
Tue, May 6 2025, 10:37 AM
Bonds have been on both sides of unchanged so far today. The overnight session began with slightly higher yields followed by a gradual rally. By 9am ...
Mon, May 5 2025, 4:30 PM
Selling Spree Continues, But Gently
Bonds were focused on this morning's ISM Services Index with some trader...
Mon, May 5 2025, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates faced a slight headwind on Monday as economic data caused weakness in the bond market. This would typically result in higher mortgage r...
Mon, May 5 2025, 11:46 AM
Today celebrates Mexico’s victory over France in the Battle of Puebla on May 5, 1862. (In this country, Hispanic home ownership rates continue toward ...
Mon, May 5 2025, 10:29 AM
The ISM Services PMI is this morning's key data, and arguably, the most relevant economic report of the week. Last week's ISM Manufacturing data wasn'...
Fri, May 2 2025, 4:17 PM
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with econ...
Fri, May 2 2025, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates had a nice little run, moving down from last Monday's highs of 6.98% (average, top tier 30yr fixed) to a mid-week low just over 6.80%. ...
Fri, May 2 2025, 3:00 PM
Both of the major purveyors of home price indices have been in agreement for the better part of a year that the average home is appreciating between 4...
Fri, May 2 2025, 2:28 PM
Mortgage rates were in the process of falling by the end of last week, but they made additional headway during the first half of the present week. Th...
Fri, May 2 2025, 11:50 AM
Fortunately for the readers of this Commentary, we don’t receive federal funding, so it won’t be cut… Unlike groups like NPR and PBS which the Trump A...
Fri, May 2 2025, 10:29 AM
It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and...
Thu, May 1 2025, 4:19 PM
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility
Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canar...
Thu, May 1 2025, 3:32 PM
After enjoying a calm, steady winning streak so far this week, mortgage rates finally experienced a bump back toward slightly higher levels on Thursda...
Thu, May 1 2025, 11:51 AM
May Day… whether you celebrate today as “about” halfway between the Northern Hemisphere's Spring equinox and Midsummer solstice associated with maypol...
Thu, May 1 2025, 11:26 AM
2 weeks ago, we got our first hint that the market was once again ready to respond to economic data after a few weeks of tariff headlines being the on...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 4:51 PM
Action Packed Calendar But No Major Action in Bonds
This morning's economic calendar was certainly the most ...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates continue enjoying a completely different volatility regime compared to just a few weeks ago. Back then, it wasn't a surprise to see th...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 11:48 AM
I don’t know where April went, but we’re at the end of it, and 2025 is 1/3 over. The future sure quickly becomes the past. In the book “1984” George O...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 11:31 AM
In terms of line items, Wednesday morning is the week's most active morning for economic reports. Several of them were potentially important, but the ...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 4:20 PM
Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck
Today's trading was almost a carbon copy of yesterday's with overni...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 3:25 PM
It's now been more than a week since mortgage rates ended the day higher than the previous day. And we haven't recovered quite as much lost ground as...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 11:44 AM
My cat Myrtle was always interested in both the primary and secondary markets… for line-caught halibut. In residential lending, the secondary markets ...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 10:50 AM
Once again, bonds were modestly weaker overnight and once again, that weakness is being reversed in early trading. Whereas scapegoats were nowhere to ...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 4:12 PM
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight but quickly moved into stron...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels since April 7th. The average lender remained at those same levels at the start of business today,...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 11:39 AM
When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on M...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 5:09 PM
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day
After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility wi...
