Mon, Mar 10 2025, 10:27 AM
Over the weekend, Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession this year. He replied that although he hates to predict such things, "there is a per...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 4:03 PM
Bonds Give Up AM Gains After Powell Speech
Bonds made it through the jobs report in good shape with modest g...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 2:47 PM
The average mortgage lender was briefly able to offer noticeably lower rates this morning compared to yesterday's latest levels. Credit goes to this m...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 2:25 PM
As we noted last week, the timing of the improvements in mortgage rates meant that the previous survey of mortgage applications from the MBA was unabl...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 11:48 AM
“If you boil a funny bone, it becomes a laughingstock. Now that's humerus.” What isn’t humer…, uh humorous, is a) most states losing an hour Sunday mo...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 10:20 AM
Today's jobs report was a mixed bag with the most important number also being the most boring. Headline job creation came in at 151k vs 160k, which i...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 4:07 PM
Decent Recovery as Sentiment Swoons Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds have made it to Friday's jobs report without ...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 3:18 PM
You may see conflicting news about mortgage rates today, depending on where you look. Weekly surveys, such as Freddie Mac's, are showing a fairly big ...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 12:03 PM
“I recently saw a woman at Walmart with March Madness teeth... She was down to the final four.” Risk-free, prepayment-free Treasury rates have approac...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 11:40 AM
There are a few moving pieces to the bond market narrative on Thursday. The general backdrop consists of yield curve steepening (fancy words that mea...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 3:47 PM
2nd Straight Day of Losses. Blame Data or Stocks?
We already saw the end of the bond market's 9 day winning ...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 3:12 PM
It's been a great couple of weeks for mortgage rates, largely mirroring the terrible couple of weeks for the stock market. A combination of downbeat e...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 12:10 PM
Wednesday marks the return of market-moving economic data after Tuesday's lull. ADP Employment was up first and it came out much weaker than expected...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 11:52 AM
Today involves a flight from Cancun to the West Coast. Maybe the news flow will cease for me in the six hours in the air, but the news flow impacting ...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 4:19 PM
Winning Streak Finally Ends, But it Could Have Been Worse
Take yesterday out of the equation and today's clo...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 3:31 PM
Although mortgage rates are based on bonds, and although bonds are constantly on the move throughout the day, mortgage lenders prefer to set the day's...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 11:45 AM
Some argue that “March 4th” is the only date that is also a command (march forth), while others disagree and say that any date in March is also a comm...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 11:26 AM
While much of the recent improvement in the bond market can be tied to various economic reports, there's been more than a normal amount of improvement...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 4:03 PM
Bonds Start Week Off With a Bang
After a weaker overnight session, bonds bounced back swiftly after this mor...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates faced a very small threat of a very small increase this morning. The underlying bond market was in weaker territory to start the day an...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 12:07 PM
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory with most of the losses seen right at the start of the overnight session in Asia. With it being th...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 11:43 AM
Can you believe it’s been five years since we were chuckling at, “I ran out of toilet paper and had to start using newspaper. Times are rough” and “Th...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 4:16 PM
Bonds End The Week and The Month at Best Levels
Both MBS and Treasuries were easily at their best levels of ...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 3:40 PM
After more than a week of consistent and meaningful improvement, mortgage rates finally showed us that they were at least capable of moving in the oth...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 3:16 PM
As is the case almost every week of the year, the Mortgage Bankers Association released its weekly mortgage app survey this week, showing the changes ...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 2:57 PM
The Census Bureau released new home sales data for January this week, and the annual pace was a seemingly significant 10.5% lower than last month's pa...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 2:36 PM
The massive spike and subsequent correction in home price appreciation (mid-2020 through early 2023) generated lots of opinions and concerns about the...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 12:06 PM
It's no secret that we don't view the PCE inflation data as being anywhere remotely as big of a market mover as CPI. Today's trading is adding anothe...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 11:52 AM
Here in Miami, and everywhere, lenders and real estate professionals are acutely aware of supply and demand impacting prices, as does anyone who buys ...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 4:14 PM
Trying to Shake Off Overnight Weakness After Mixed Bag of Data
Bonds came into the domestic session at sligh...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 3:24 PM
Stop the presses! Mortgage rates actually moved HIGHER today! While it's the first time we've been able to say such things since last Tuesday, the dam...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 3:05 PM
The National Association of Realtors released its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) today, which measures home purchase contracts that have been signed,...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 12:30 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, bonds could seemingly do no wrong this week. Every opportunity for traders to circle the wagons and push back against the ...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 11:52 AM
AI is definitely a discussion topic among lenders: what is it, will it help the borrower, will it help the lender… How would you like every hand motio...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 4:28 PM
Bonds Can Seemingly Do No Wrong
Another day, another example of bonds ignoring the potentially negative cues...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 3:41 PM
Mortgage rates are directly connected to the bond market, and bonds can seemingly do no wrong over the past week. Specifically, demand for bonds has ...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 12:01 PM
While the economic calendar may look a little busy today, there are, once again, no big ticket market movers in play. The last time data had an impac...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 11:45 AM
While the House passed President Trump’s budget resolution, the industry is abuzz about the TV at HUD’s headquarters showing an AI video of Donald Tru...
Tue, Feb 25 2025, 4:33 PM
Impressively Calm Rally Continues Amid General Growth Concerns
In the absence of the typical motivations req...
Tue, Feb 25 2025, 4:01 PM
Over the past 4 business days, the average top tier mortgage rate has fallen by 0.22%. While that may seem like a small number, consider that mortgage...
Tue, Feb 25 2025, 1:03 PM
In Connecticut, a portion of the formal and informal talk here is about how builder news touches on lenders. (As an aside, Home Depot’s earnings, repo...
Tue, Feb 25 2025, 11:36 AM
They day begins with 10yr yields down more than 10bps and trading under 4.30% at times. MBS are up 3/8ths with 5.5 UMBS coupons getting close to par. ...
Mon, Feb 24 2025, 5:05 PM
Bonds Improved Throughout The Day, With and Without Stock Market Losses
Based on the movement at the end of ...
Mon, Feb 24 2025, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a...
Mon, Feb 24 2025, 11:46 AM
Today I head to Connecticut for a visit with First World Mortgage and the Northeast Mortgage Summit. Today happens to be rocker George Thorogood’s 75t...
Mon, Feb 24 2025, 10:33 AM
After a strong finish last week, there was some natural risk that short-covering and position squaring added to the gains, thus increasing the chance ...
Fri, Feb 21 2025, 5:00 PM
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week
Bonds benefited from a one-two punch of economic data and stock market weak...
Fri, Feb 21 2025, 3:22 PM
Back on December 18th, rates began the day fairly close to where they ended the previous day. In the afternoon, rates surged sharply higher following ...
Fri, Feb 21 2025, 2:59 PM
Per the latest release from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), both refinance and purchase indices decreased this week. In terms of the change fr...
Fri, Feb 21 2025, 2:30 PM
The Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report this week, frequently referred to by its principal component "housing starts" (a te...
