Mon, Jun 9 2025, 11:52 AM
For the next several days I am in Florida, in mortgage meetings and the MBAF, and in Saturday’s Commentary I noted the intense flurry of conference ac...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 10:12 AM
Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had la...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 5:02 PM
Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
It's not necessarily a fun fact to face, but today's bond marke...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 3:13 PM
Mortgage rates have enjoyed a nice run since May 21st, with the MND Index (average top tier 30yr fixed scenarios) falling from a recent peak of 7.08% ...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 2:22 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey showed a pullback in mortgage applications, with rates dipping slightly after a three-week clim...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 11:45 AM
Today is the 81st anniversary of D-Day. “My granddad was responsible for 25 downed German planes in WW II. To this day, he is still known as the worst...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 11:30 AM
The bond market was likely taking a bit of a lead-off ahead of today's jobs report, inspired by a string of weaker economic data over the past week. ...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 4:05 PM
Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report
It was a fairly interesting day for bonds, relative to the calendar...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 3:37 PM
Mortgage rates began the day perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels for the average lender. By the afternoon, the underlying bond market had...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 11:48 AM
The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine Stat...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds began the morning in rally mode, even if not in an extreme way. Gains lasted for about 20 minutes before reversing. The shift was accompanied ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 5:28 PM
Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM
We knew the onus was on weaker economic data to justify any decent drop in ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 4:32 PM
Whether or not today's drop in rates is meaningful depends on one's perspective, but in the context of recent rate movement, it's definitely noticeabl...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 11:52 AM
As the world is watching the chicks learn to fly on the eagle cam, in the human world there are more “For Sale” signs. You know that problem we’ve had...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 10:28 AM
It's been a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. Both of the morning's key economic reports came in weaker than expected. In the case of ...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:47 PM
JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight and then wea...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:02 PM
Sometimes a Tuesday is just a Tuesday for mortgage rates. In the present week, any day is capable of generating some volatility due to one of several...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 11:50 AM
My cat Myrtle never seemed to listen, but heard lots. LOs can hear the difference, when dealing with a borrower, between “What is your rate?” versus “...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 10:35 AM
First thing's first: the overnight rally was fairly modest with 10yr yields dropping about 3bps to 4.41 ahead of the domestic session. Given that the...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 5:27 PM
New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data
It's not that this morning's ISM data failed to help the bond market. In f...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have been in an exceptionally narrow range since last Tuesday with the 30yr fixed index hovering just under 7%. The average lender is ...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 11:51 AM
Any lender or mortgage loan originator hoping for lower rates to spur business is learning that hope is not a strategy. “Rob, you’re always talking ab...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 10:51 AM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has more potential than most economic reports to cause a reaction in the bond market, even if it isn't perfectly consistent....
Fri, May 30 2025, 6:03 PM
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has spent more than two years s...
Fri, May 30 2025, 5:43 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly application survey continues to track closely with the more granular daily rate data from MND. Both sh...
Fri, May 30 2025, 4:59 PM
Both FHFA and Case Shiller released home price data this week with some mixed messages for the housing market. The first thing to remember about the m...
Fri, May 30 2025, 4:19 PM
Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
There was always a reasonably high bar...
Fri, May 30 2025, 3:28 PM
It has turned out to be a surprisingly calm week for mortgage rates and, as of today, largely a victorious one, even if the victories have been modest...
Fri, May 30 2025, 11:42 AM
“Rob, what are the odds that the MBA will set up a ‘Man Park’ at the big conference in Las Vegas in October?” Slim to none. The United States is an in...
Fri, May 30 2025, 9:14 AM
Today's PCE Price Index is one of the two main consumer inflation reports put out by the US government. It's bigger and broader than CPI, but CPI com...
Thu, May 29 2025, 4:46 PM
Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines
To be clear, markets reacted to tariff headlines y...
Thu, May 29 2025, 3:49 PM
There was a bit of behind-the-scenes volatility in the bond market today. Normally, bond volatility translates to interest rate volatility. In some c...
Thu, May 29 2025, 11:50 AM
How about those junk emails that start off with, “I’m not going to waste your time.” It already wasted my time. Is it a waste of time paying attention...
Thu, May 29 2025, 10:56 AM
We have a primer in the MBS Live knowledge base regarding the potential for overnight news and bond trading to give a completely different impression ...
Wed, May 28 2025, 4:51 PM
Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data
It was ultimately a fairly uneventful session for bonds with the 5yr T...
Wed, May 28 2025, 4:13 PM
After moving moderately lower to start the new week yesterday, mortgage rates backtracked ever-so-slightly today. Top tier conventional 30yr fixed ra...
Wed, May 28 2025, 12:14 PM
After starting the holiday-shortened week on a positive note yesterday, bonds are already circling the wagons and encountering some resistance. This d...
Wed, May 28 2025, 11:40 AM
Overheard in the hallways at last week’s MBA conference: “At my age, instead of a condom I carry a moist towelette in my wallet. At my age, I run into...
Tue, May 27 2025, 5:20 PM
Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support
Whether one wants to give credit to the big rally in Japanese bonds, the w...
Tue, May 27 2025, 4:48 PM
The 30yr fixed mortgage rate index spent 3 consecutive days over 7% last week--the first time that's happened since February. Rates have generally be...
Tue, May 27 2025, 11:33 AM
Last week's overseas headlines raised questions about about a spillover from volatility in the Japanese bond market to US yields. At issue: attention-...
Tue, May 27 2025, 11:26 AM
Are your underwriters this fast? The current Administration has been fast to ax groups of employees in various government departments, including the A...
Fri, May 23 2025, 3:34 PM
A Little Early Excitement
Bonds began the day with a bit of excitement following Trump comments on raising E...
Fri, May 23 2025, 3:07 PM
The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales for April today, and at face value, the news is good. Economists expected an annual pace of 692k, but were ...
Fri, May 23 2025, 2:17 PM
Two months ago, existing home sales came in at the highest levels in a year according the the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Last month's rep...
Fri, May 23 2025, 1:39 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly application survey has been doing a good job of tracking with the more granular daily rate data from M...
Fri, May 23 2025, 12:38 PM
The bond market is scheduled to close 3 hour earlier than normal today--a common practice surrounding federal holiday weekends. This means 3 fewer hou...
Fri, May 23 2025, 11:47 AM
“I can’t afford an Ancestry DNA kit to learn about my relatives. So instead, I posted online that I had won the Powerball Lottery.” Speaking of news d...
Fri, May 23 2025, 10:37 AM
The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tari...
Thu, May 22 2025, 4:38 PM
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker
Bond yields have moved almost exclusively higher in Ma...
