Tue, May 27 2025, 11:33 AM
Last week's overseas headlines raised questions about about a spillover from volatility in the Japanese bond market to US yields. At issue: attention-...
Tue, May 27 2025, 11:26 AM
Are your underwriters this fast? The current Administration has been fast to ax groups of employees in various government departments, including the A...
Fri, May 23 2025, 3:34 PM
A Little Early Excitement
Bonds began the day with a bit of excitement following Trump comments on raising E...
Fri, May 23 2025, 3:07 PM
The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales for April today, and at face value, the news is good. Economists expected an annual pace of 692k, but were ...
Fri, May 23 2025, 2:17 PM
Two months ago, existing home sales came in at the highest levels in a year according the the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Last month's rep...
Fri, May 23 2025, 1:39 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly application survey has been doing a good job of tracking with the more granular daily rate data from M...
Fri, May 23 2025, 12:38 PM
The bond market is scheduled to close 3 hour earlier than normal today--a common practice surrounding federal holiday weekends. This means 3 fewer hou...
Fri, May 23 2025, 11:47 AM
“I can’t afford an Ancestry DNA kit to learn about my relatives. So instead, I posted online that I had won the Powerball Lottery.” Speaking of news d...
Fri, May 23 2025, 10:37 AM
The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tari...
Thu, May 22 2025, 4:38 PM
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker
Bond yields have moved almost exclusively higher in Ma...
Thu, May 22 2025, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in just over 3 months yesterday with financial markets generally protesting the absence of more serious spendin...
Thu, May 22 2025, 11:51 AM
Yesterday I headed west from the conference while my son Robbie headed south to the nCino nSight event. But while in Manhattan Dawn S. asked me, “How ...
Thu, May 22 2025, 10:06 AM
The most significant development of the overnight session was the early morning passage of the spending bill in the House. This resulted in only a mod...
Wed, May 21 2025, 4:34 PM
Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun
Vigilante justice! Taking matters into one's own ha...
Wed, May 21 2025, 3:43 PM
Two days ago, mortgage rates began the day at 7.04% before mid-day improvements brought the average back down to 6.99%. Today started out in a simila...
Wed, May 21 2025, 11:50 AM
As nearly a thousand capital markets staff, managers, and vendors head home from Manhattan, united in trying to help borrowers, in a reflection of the...
Wed, May 21 2025, 10:50 AM
We're now into the 3rd day of a week that's conspicuously lacking in relevant econ data. In addition, the looming holiday weekend hinders participatio...
Tue, May 20 2025, 5:01 PM
Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination
Here's a quick and easy method for imagining that bonds ...
Tue, May 20 2025, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates ultimately managed to hold steady on Tuesday despite some underlying market volatility. Rates change day to day (and sometimes intraday...
Tue, May 20 2025, 11:41 AM
A mullah, a rabbi, and a priest walk into a bar here in New York. The bartender says, “What is this, some kind of joke?” What isn’t a joke is people’s...
Tue, May 20 2025, 10:11 AM
It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some sma...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:51 PM
(Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness
The sharp overnight losses in stocks and bonds were consisten...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S. News of the downgrade brok...
Mon, May 19 2025, 11:22 AM
People who don’t attend the National Secondary here in Manhattan wonder what happens behind the scenes. Here you go. We had the MCT elevator failure l...
Mon, May 19 2025, 9:10 AM
When Moody's announced the surprise cut of the US credit rating on Friday, there were only a few minutes left to trade and all but the latest working ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 5:26 PM
Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
Bonds began the day stronger after a gentle o...
Fri, May 16 2025, 4:25 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate is set to end the week just a few hundredths of a percent higher than last Friday at 6.92%. That's a victory--al...
Fri, May 16 2025, 4:11 PM
The Census Bureau is out with monthly construction numbers for April showing an uptick in construction activity offset by slightly lower permitting. ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 3:52 PM
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo released the monthly Housing Market Index (HMI) this week, showing builder confidence ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 2:16 PM
Home purchase demand improved improved last week according to the MBA mortgage application survey. The improvement over the previous week was fairly m...
Fri, May 16 2025, 11:44 AM
This weekend is when many of us head to Manhattan for the MBA’s National Secondary event. For those flying in, check your ticket: NJ Transit’s on stri...
Fri, May 16 2025, 10:34 AM
One might assume that an economic report like Import Prices would carry a lot of weight in light of the news cycle or that the highest 1yr inflation e...
Thu, May 15 2025, 4:25 PM
Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses
Wednesday's weakness was severely lacking in the scapego...
Thu, May 15 2025, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move higher in the month of May. The latest bump--seen yesterday--took the average top tier 30yr fixed rat...
Thu, May 15 2025, 11:50 AM
“There’s a splendid saying about the definition of an economist being someone who “will know tomorrow why the things they predicted yesterday didn't h...
Thu, May 15 2025, 9:58 AM
This morning's market action is quickly helping us understand the enigmatic trading seen yesterday (i.e. a sell-off without any great scapegoats). Re...
Wed, May 14 2025, 5:08 PM
Another "Just Because" Sell Off
This is getting old... and unfortunately, more prevalent. The bond market h...
Wed, May 14 2025, 4:26 PM
In early April, amid the most volatile portion of the market's reaction to the tariff announcement, mortgage rates were officially over 7% for a singl...
Wed, May 14 2025, 11:51 AM
As Roy Cohn once instructed a young Donald Trump, much can be accomplished by attacking first and dealing with the consequences later. I get opinions ...
Wed, May 14 2025, 11:13 AM
It's a potentially frustrating time for bond watchers. The rules have already changed in a big way to accommodate the new wild card presented by tarif...
Tue, May 13 2025, 5:07 PM
Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat
There are two kinds of rate/bond watchers today: those who tuned in late in...
Tue, May 13 2025, 4:26 PM
Tuesday brought the release of an economic report that has frequently been responsible for big swings in mortgage rates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI...
Tue, May 13 2025, 11:45 AM
No one in places like Florida or Myrtle Beach or Colorado’s Glenwood Springs wants to wake up to a headline, sensationalist or not, saying, “Vacation ...
Tue, May 13 2025, 10:49 AM
Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the rel...
Mon, May 12 2025, 5:07 PM
Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter?
At times these day, it may seem like all news is bad news ...
Mon, May 12 2025, 4:32 PM
Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates bec...
Mon, May 12 2025, 11:44 AM
Nearly a thousand of us head to Manhattan in less than a week for the MBA’s Secondary Conference. In 2025 Q1, the median asking rent in New York City ...
Mon, May 12 2025, 11:01 AM
10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant r...
Fri, May 9 2025, 5:07 PM
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly mov...
Fri, May 9 2025, 4:30 PM
Whether it's today vs yesterday, or today vs the end of last week, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is just a hair lower. Today's improv...
