Wed, Jan 22 2025, 4:06 PM
Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and the Waiting Game
The extreme dearth of big ticket economic da...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 3:38 PM
Given that rates take cues from bonds and bonds take cues from economic data, it's perhaps no surprise to see an absence of volatility in rates on a w...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 12:23 PM
Bonds rallied yesterday, largely in an attempt to catch up with the movement that occurred on Monday when cash trading was closed (futures and other m...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 11:47 AM
A fake image of Brad Pitt was used to scam a woman out of $850,000. (Hopefully every lender has set up policies and procedures regarding events like t...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 4:54 PM
Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains
This morning's commentary focused on a bond rally in response to an absenc...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 4:36 PM
Mortgage rates are driven predominantly by the bond market and bonds were able to clear up a few curiosities on inauguration day. Specifically, trade...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 11:40 AM
Please don’t touch my pizza! In a decision that has left countless fans disappointed,, including many in the mortgage ranks, Costco has decided to rem...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 10:57 AM
Trump issued numerous executive orders on Monday, but conspicuously absent was any specific directive regarding tariffs. This was one of the key area...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 4:56 PM
Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful
Friday may as well have been a 4th weekend day for the bond ma...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and Friday was the least active day of the week for bonds. There were no major economic reports to cause...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 3:40 PM
While it would be technically accurate to point out a slight increase in January's homebuilder confidence (officially the National Association of Home...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 3:16 PM
The US Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report for December today. The report measures building permits, the start of the cons...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 11:47 AM
We’re more than halfway through January already, the MBA has lowered its 2025 projection to $2.1 trillion, and there is a sense of “wait and see” out ...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 10:38 AM
It always bears repeating that "predictions are for suckers" and if there were a hard and fast rule about what markets do in certain scenarios, trader...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 4:29 PM
2 Straight Days of Gains?!
Not only have bonds managed to pull off a feat rarely seen in recent memory (back...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 4:01 PM
After having a great day yesterday, mortgage rates were able to add another "good" day today. The net effect brings the average lender's top tier 30y...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 11:55 AM
Do you know the interest rate on your loan? How about the age of your roof? Here in Austin, a big concern is too much growth: Austin has gained 1 mill...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 11:48 AM
While it was never going to be on the same level as yesterday's CPI in terms of market movement potential, Retail Sales was likely to be today's most ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Lived Up To Market Moving Potential And Then Some
For every 14 or 15 times we approach a potential big-t...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 4:08 PM
We knew that today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was a hotly anticipated economic report that at least had the potential to give rates a big push, and ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 3:13 PM
There hasn't been meaningful change in economic data that measures activity in the housing and mortgage markets. In a nutshell, activity has been drif...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 11:48 AM
The folks here in Austin are sarcastically asking, “Who’s in your wallet?” Hopefully not Jennifer Garner or Samuel L. Jackson. The Consumer Financial ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 10:37 AM
On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market t...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 4:45 PM
Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers
Tuesday featured a much weaker PPI report that fail...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit the highest levels since May 2024 yesterday, even though the average was almost imperceptibly higher than last Friday's....
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 12:02 PM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) may not be nearly as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it has proven capable of producing l...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 11:54 AM
“The older I get, the earlier it gets late.” It was early to bed last night for me, early to rise, since today we are heading to Austin, Texas for the...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 4:39 PM
Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness
This week's relevant economic data is concentrated over the Tue-Thu t...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates rose to the highest levels since May 2024 by the end of last week following a stronger reading on the jobs report. Technically, the sam...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 11:49 AM
“An economics professor was walking with a student when the student looked down and said, ‘Look! A $50 bill!’ The professor explained, ‘That can’t be ...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 10:36 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, the evaporation of Fed rate cut probability has been a common refrain. While it's true that there was an obvious shi...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 5:09 PM
2024 has been one of those "it is what it is" sort of years for activity in the mortgage market. There were signs of hope over the summer months as r...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates were already at 6 month highs earlier this week so it didn't take much of a push to send them up to new 7 month highs today. The push ...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 3:48 PM
Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree
Today's jobs report was much stronger than expected and there were n...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 11:51 AM
In Los Angeles County, with 4,058 square miles of land (more than Delaware and Rhode Island combined) at least ten people have died, and more than 10,...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 10:16 AM
The morning trading is as straightforward as it is unpleasant. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations (256k vs 160k f'cast) and the unemployment rate ...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 2:04 PM
No Data, No Volatility
Bonds were only open for half the day due to the national day of mourning for Jimmy C...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 1:47 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds were on a shortened schedule today due to the federal day of mourning for Jimmy Car...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 11:45 AM
“My buddy’s wife complains about constantly being sexually harassed at work. He told her she can stop working from home and go back to the office if s...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 11:03 AM
Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due ...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 3:29 PM
Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways
Markets seemingly had a lot to get through today between economic data,...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 2:54 PM
For the second day in a row, mortgage rates have moved higher at a modest to moderate pace. Unfortunately, that's been a trend so far in 2025 and it's...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 11:47 AM
I can’t take credit for, “People don’t care about how much you know until they know how much you care.” Empathy and maintaining contacts are oh so imp...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 9:58 AM
Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (m...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 4:21 PM
Orderly Move to Highest Yields in 8 Months
Bonds reacted logically to this morning's econ data at 10am. ISM...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 3:36 PM
We came into the current week knowing that rates would take cues from any clear cues in this week's economic data. In general, that means higher rate...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 11:54 AM
High hopes and crossed fingers may help one's outlook in advance of key economic data, but they are powerless once the data comes out. In today's cas...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 11:52 AM
“We all get the same 365 days. The only difference is what we do with them.” In 2024 a lot of lenders buckled down every day. Time to take a breather?...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 4:12 PM
Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
Bonds lost ground this morning despite a weaker S&P PMI...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 3:25 PM
The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year ho...
