Mon, Dec 19 2022, 3:52 PM
As much as it may seem that financial markets are driven by machines and code, human beings are still critical to day to day functioning. This is esp...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 2:31 PM
The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)--typically referred to simply as "builder confidence"--is argued t...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 11:57 AM
The ratio of market movement to justification is off the charts this morning (i.e. lots of movement, but not a lot of apparent justification). This i...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 10:37 AM
Happy Hanukkah (or Chanukah), which began yesterday. Others are looking ahead to Christmas, with some companies closed Friday the 23rd and some closed...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 5:13 PM
Bonds Recover Somewhat After Weaker Start
Position squaring and ongoing weakness in EU bond markets got US b...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 5:12 PM
It was a critical week for financial markets and especially for rates as investors digested the latest inflation data and the Fed's smaller rate hike....
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 11:51 AM
Around Thanksgiving and then again after the December meeting, you'll see us increasingly reference "holiday trading mode." This term is a bit of a c...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 10:09 AM
This morning I Head East to Chicago for a handful of days. If you’ve wondered what a pilot sees when landing at O’Hare, here’s a mesmerizing video. (W...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the bond market (specifically, mortgage-backed securities or MBS). When MBS improve, lenders are creating loans...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 3:33 PM
Bonds Stay Resilient as Traders Begin Punching Out For The Holidays
After starting flat, bonds were under pr...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 12:28 PM
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and then followed European bonds into weaker territory after the European Central Bank (ECB) upped its inflation...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 9:36 AM
Anyone who has ever gone swimming in the ocean knows that, in a violent surf, the swimmer can’t spend time and energy in the waves near the shore bein...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:48 PM
It's often said here, but bears repeating: by the time the Fed officially announces a rate hike, that rate hike is old news and of no further conseque...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:20 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Unfriendly Dots Balanced by Peaceful Powell
As expected, the market's initial focus ...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 12:17 PM
It's Fed day and a 0.50% hike is a foregone conclusion. Markets have fully priced that in and multiple Fed speeches--including Powell 2 weeks ago--ha...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 10:13 AM
Here in Southern California for the California MBA’s Legal Issues and Regulatory Compliance Conference, the topics include RESPA, marketing services a...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 9:01 AM
The mortgage market disregarded a slight increase in interest rates last week. Refinance applications posted a second weekly gain, and the Purchase M...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 4:49 PM
There aren't many scheduled economic reports that are as hotly anticipated as was today's Consumer Price Index (CPI). The market's reaction more than...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 4:28 PM
CPI Reaction Lives Up To The Hype. Fed on Deck
On most any other day, if MBS are going out the door with a 5...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 10:01 AM
You can go back and research decades of Consumer Price Index reports to compare the size of the market movement relative to the size of the beat/miss ...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 8:58 AM
The Buffalo Springfield sang, “There's something happening here… But what it is ain't exactly clear.” Those were historical times, and a reminder that...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 3:59 PM
The week began in fairly uneventful fashion for mortgage rates, at least in the bigger picture. In the smaller picture, there was a modicum of drama ...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 3:51 PM
Bonds Give up Gains After Bumpy Auctions
Amid and absence of any relevant economic data, bonds were forced t...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 12:17 PM
It's been more than a month since the last CPI report sent mortgage rates lower at the fastest single-day pace on record. Since then, apart from one ...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 10:00 AM
My cat Myrtle has toys and games, namely the end of a shoelace, a ping pong ball, and an occasional bout with the light from a laser pointer. Humans h...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 7:07 PM
Tuesday December 13th is the day many people have been waiting for ever since Thursday November 10th. What do those two days have in common? They each...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 5:15 PM
Retreat Into Recent Rate Range Continues
The opening commentary is surprisingly similar to the closing comme...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 11:29 AM
We came into Friday expecting the Producer Price Index data to carry more market movement potential than normal. Two reasons for this: A) inflation d...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 10:09 AM
Stage presence during the holidays? Here’s an example . Christmas, and 2023, is roaring our way… What are you telling your bosses? If you’re working ...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates have been remarkably well behaved since the November 10th release of the last Consumer Price Index (CPI), the monthly inflation report ...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 3:59 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Moderate Weakness
Today had the feel of a holiday trading day in the bond mar...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 12:14 PM
As we watched yesterday's rally continue to extend into the afternoon without any compelling motivation, it began to seem slightly overdone--especiall...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 9:36 AM
Yesterday I spent some time in Northern California with two groups, one of which was CAMP, and while morale is good and everyone is in the holiday spi...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today after new economic data showed a big drop in the cost of labor in Q3. Labor costs are one of the places t...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:22 PM
Mini Snowball Rally on Data, Technicals, and Lack of Supply
There are several ways to approach today's rally...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 1:37 PM
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) showed some signs of life in November, posting its first increase in nine months. The index, which d...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 9:50 AM
We never like to view technical levels or technical analysis as having any reliable predictive value about the future. It's more of a framework that ...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 9:05 AM
Let’s have a non-mortgage opening paragraph. Today is “Remember Pearl Harbor Day.” (If you like history, you gotta click on that link and see what is ...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 8:19 AM
Application volume the past week didn’t fully recover from the usual Thanksgiving week losses a week prior. Refinancing did improve, but purchase vol...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:57 PM
This week continues to be a placeholder ahead of more consequential events coming up in the week ahead. Specifically, next Tuesday and Wednesday's co...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:39 PM
Mystery Rally Gets Bonds Back in The Green
Both Tuesday and Wednesday are effectively free from market-movin...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 12:23 PM
Today's trading session is effectively data-free in the US with the never-market-moving International Trade report the only data on the calendar. Bon...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week very close to their lowest levels in more than 2 months after Fed Chair Powell essentially confirmed next week's rate h...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 3:46 PM
Black Knight released its Mortgage Monitor report today--always a treasure trove of robust housing/mortgage-related data. Of particular interest this...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 3:22 PM
Weaker Start on Data and Fed Anxiety
Bonds got off to a weaker start in the new week on a variety of factors...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 11:21 AM
The importance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated for most of 2022. That's doubly true in November and December. The Nov 10th it...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 9:21 AM
“Hey Chet, since you’re the new guy here with the park U.S. Geological Survey in Hawai’i, you’re going to be the one placing the live cam on the volca...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 4:12 PM
Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data
Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following t...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 3:48 PM
As far as financial markets are concerned, a green Christmas is better than anything Bing Crosby could have crooned about. Green is the color that fla...
