Wed, Jun 26 2024, 3:53 PM
Sideways Trend Looking Shifty
Using Treasury yields as a road map, the past week and a half has been excruci...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 3:37 PM
After operating in an exceptionally narrow range since the beginning of last week, mortgage rates finally started doing something a bit different toda...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 11:28 AM
May turned out to be a dismal month for home sales. Sales of existing homes dipped a modest 0.7 percent from April, but new home sales fared far worse...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 11:25 AM
“Don’t waste a good crisis.” Continuing data breaches constitute a crisis, the latest example being LendingTree Inc., cloud-based data analytics firm ...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 10:31 AM
The absence of relevant domestic market movers has been a theme all week. While that has gone hand in hand with relatively uninspired bond market mov...
Wed, Jun 26 2024, 8:08 AM
Slightly lower mortgage rates failed to impress potential borrowers last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a mea...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 3:06 PM
Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
We've increasingly revisited the concept of the "insi...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 2:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been flatter than the earth according to the flat earth society. Much like the actual earth in many areas in the middle of the co...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 12:01 PM
Two major home price indexes had very different conclusions about the growth of annual home prices in April, but each showed a significant month-over...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 11:54 AM
Everyone’s above average, right? If you are a lender and making money, you’re in the majority. It’s not that you’re not special, it’s just that with c...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 3:36 PM
No Major Data, No Major Movement
It was a snoozer of a day for bonds with yields and MBS prices holding well...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 3:26 PM
Most mortgage lenders offer mortgage rates in increments of 0.125% (i.e. 6.875, 7.0, 7.125, 7.25, etc.). As such, a particularly notable day of mortg...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 11:41 AM
“I saved a bunch of money on my car insurance by… switching to reverse and leaving the scene.” The word on the street is that Guaranteed Rate is chang...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 10:18 AM
With last Friday's range in 10yr yields of roughly 4.22 to 4.27, there was narrow window for today being an "inside day" (i.e. when the previous sessi...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 4:41 PM
Ultimately an Uneventful Week Despite Micro-Volatility
This morning featured an overnight rally driven by we...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 4:37 PM
After a rocky start to the year, things began to improve for rates and the inflation outlook in May. June took the improvement to the next level, but ...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 11:27 AM
Don Henley’s “Boys of Summer” was a hit 40 years ago. (Yes, 40 years.) There are plenty of beaches in Hawai’i, but here in Honolulu at the MBAH confer...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 10:56 AM
S&P Global (formerly Markit) PMIs are the standard PMI around the world, but have long been second fiddle to ISM PMIs in the U.S. That's certainly st...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 3:26 PM
Counterintuitive Weakness Early, But Inconsequential in Bigger Picture
The past two trading days each had th...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 3:12 PM
The bond market was closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. As such, mortgage lenders were either closed or unable to update mortgage rates b...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:49 AM
Taylor Swift sang of a “Cruel Summer” and vendors and lenders hope that it isn’t. “If you ever get cold, stand in the corner of a room for a while. Th...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:45 AM
The rate of both construction permitting and residential construction starts fell in May, with permitting losing ground for the third straight month. ...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:07 AM
On Tuesday, bonds had an initial, positive reaction to the Retail Sales data that clearly ended mere minutes after the release. Yields trended slight...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 8:31 AM
There was a slight increase in mortgage application volume during the week ended June 14. For a change, it was accounted for by the home purchasing co...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 4:13 PM
Additional Mid-Day Gains Independent of Data and Events
Bonds traded the day in two distinct sections. Firs...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates began the week with a modest move back up and over the 7% threshold, but managed to erase some of those losses today. The improvement ...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 11:34 AM
It’s been 55 years since Bryan Adams’ Summer of ’69. (That’s 55 years prior to the latest CFPB action against a lender.) Here in Hawai’i, the populati...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 10:19 AM
It's nearly impossible to avoid hearing the phrase "data dependent" when following financial markets these days and this morning's movement is the lat...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:40 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Give Back Some of Last Week's Gains
After rallying from roughly 4.45 to 4.22% l...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher to start the new week. With the average top tier 30yr fixed rate just under 7% on Friday, this meant a move to j...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 11:42 AM
This week includes Juneteenth, a reminder of how slow news traveled in the past, as well as the Summer Solstice. Here in Hawai’i, in terms of daylight...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 11:17 AM
Last week, MBS underperformance was front and center. One of the justifications was the fact that MBS almost always underperform when Treasuries go o...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 3:36 PM
Once More: What's Up With MBS Underperformance?
The notion of MBS underperforming Treasuries is front and ce...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 3:27 PM
Today saw the average conventional 30yr fixed rate rise ever so slightly for top tier scenarios. Most lenders are still quoting those scenarios just ...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 1:07 PM
The bond market has a lot on its mind after this past week of economic data and events. Inflation quickly and increasingly looks like it may (finally...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 11:51 AM
“In Florida earlier this week we celebrated with a couple of adult beverages: Metamucil and Ensure.” Every state has its quirks, and every state is ma...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 3:46 PM
Helpful Data, MBS Underperformance, Is This Time Different?
The bond market reacted favorably to this mornin...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 3:35 PM
You'd have to go back to March 28th to see the average mortgage lender offering a lower rate on a top tier, conventional 30yr fixed scenario than they...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 11:42 AM
This morning I head to Chicago, IL, a state with 972 licensed mortgage banking companies. Illinois has had its share of severe storm damage (heck, in ...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 10:48 AM
In a nutshell, this morning's economic data rapidly reversed the weakness seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, thus restoring the lowest yields ac...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:22 PM
Massive CPI Rally Cut in Half After Fed Announcement
As discussed in the AM commentary, bonds rallied sharpl...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:10 PM
It was an incredibly high consequence day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates due to the confluence of two extremely important events. The ...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate ha...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 11:35 AM
Florida became a state in 1845. Sixteen years later, kites were used in the American Civil War to deliver letters, news, and newspapers. Now we have… ...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 10:32 AM
There are so many line items in the CPI data that it would be hard to imagine a truly perfect report. In today's case, one could still take exception...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 8:14 AM
Mortgage application activity recovered nicely last week from a downturn during the previous holiday-shortened week, helped by a temporary drop in in...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:53 PM
Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Hold The Range
If yesterday was a placeholder ahead of bigger ticket events, an...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:30 PM
Today's mortgage rates were fairly close to yesterday's at the average lender for the 3rd business day in a row. Friday was the last day with any sub...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 11:51 AM
I head to Sarasota, Florida this morning, not to look for Florida Man, but for the MBA Florida Conference. A big topic will be homeowner’s insurance. ...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 10:20 AM
Not every day is destined to be significant (or even interesting) for the bond market. Depending on the outcome of today's only relevant calendar eve...
