“The difference between me and Superman is that he has super vision. I require supervision.” We’re halfway through the third quarter: Will your company require supervision or super vision to go forward? Speaking of which, when did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in ’25? Stay in the mix in ’26. It’ll be heaven in ’27. How about, “Try to earn a little revenue every day, day after day.”? In Mortgage Land, I received this note. “Rob, I tuned in recently to a webinar of an investment banking economist talking about the lending industry in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2025. All they could talk about were predictions of doom and gloom: increased delinquencies, increasing inventory for sale, fewer borrowers qualifying (especially with student loans coming due), more borrowers ‘under water,’ Agency uncertainty, more sellers refusing to budge on their asking prices, and higher rates. Are you hearing similar things?” Never listen to the experts! Watch the facts! No, volumes aren’t setting the world on fire, but most companies have right sized and seem to be doing “moderate to good.” Individuals and families still want to own a home and stop renting and still want someone to help them save money on their overall debt picture. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by ICE. By seamlessly integrating best-in-class solutions, ICE optimizes every stage of the loan life cycle, setting the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency, and scalability, and defining the future of homeownership. Today’s has an interview with Total Expert’s Joe Welu on how the company is leveraging its new Agentic AI Sales Assistant to transform loan officer productivity, strengthen customer relationships, and drive mortgage volume, while examining the evolving opportunities and risks AI presents to lenders in 2025 and beyond.)
Products, Services, and Software for Lenders and Brokers
“Mortgage assumptions are making a comeback… But are servicers ready? As buyers rush to assume low-rate loans in a high-rate market, servicers are stuck with outdated, manual processes that cause costly delays, missed releases, and frustrated borrowers. In "Mortgage Assumptions: Attractive to Buyers, a Headache for Servicers," we break down the biggest assumption-related challenges and show how leading servicers are using workflow automation to transform assumptions from painful exceptions into smooth, compliant, and trackable processes. If your team is still handling assumptions with spreadsheets and email chains, this is your wake-up call. Discover how platforms like CLARIFIRE® are turning operational headaches into efficiency wins.”
On today's episode of Last Word at 10am PT, Brian Vieaux, Christy Soukhamneut, Kevin Peranio, and Courtney Thompson dive into the latest inflation data from the CPI and PPI reports, exploring what it could mean for future Federal Reserve decisions. They'll also examine the growing discussion around taking the GSEs through an IPO and share insights from the Western Secondary, highlighting how these developments may influence the mortgage industry going forward.
“Are your loan officers equipped to capture every refinance opportunity and beat the competition? With Loan Officer Autopilot's Refi-Autopilot, you can automate opportunity identification and engagement, freeing up your team from manual tasks. Our proactive, data-driven approach helps you sustain ongoing borrower relationships through continuous, automated engagement, leading to a reported 80 percent client retention rate. This is about more than just efficiency; it's about maximizing profit potential and reclaiming control of your refinance business. Don't let your competitors gain an advantage. Schedule a consultation to see how we can help you thrive in any market. Contact our sales team.”
One tiny rate dip. A massive market shift. In Q2 2025, a brief April rate drop triggered a 12x spike in refinance eligibility, driving more than half of all first-lien applications that quarter, according to Ardley’s latest Mortgage Market Insights. The data shows how quickly borrowers react to even minor rate changes. During a short-lived “boomlet” from late March to mid-May, and peaking in late April, rate-and-term eligibility surged, and applications tripled compared to March. First-lien share climbed to 15 percent, up from just 3 percent in Q1. With a potential rate drop ahead, Ardley’s analysis suggests R/T eligibility could double almost overnight. In this environment, speed and precision are everything. See the full analysis and data: Download the report.
The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.
Mortgage Supply and Demand
Mortgage rates and prices are driven by supply and demand, which is why capital markets are closely watched for signs and trends. Vik Kasparian with RAMS Mortgage Capital (a leading asset disposition and valuation firm, among other things) reports in on the current state of what is happening once loans fund.
“The mortgage secondary market remains anchored by the core dynamics of supply and demand, with current trends largely shaped by the sustained ‘higher for longer’ rate environment. Mortgage rates have stabilized just below 7 percent, trading in a relatively narrow range. While market participants initially anticipated a more aggressive decline in rates, expectations have shifted toward a more tempered trajectory, with only modest downward movement likely through the end of 2025. This adjustment reflects persistent inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on policy easing.
“On the supply side, mortgage origination volumes continue to lag historical norms, particularly relative to pre-2023 levels. Refinance activity remains minimal, and purchase volumes are constrained by affordability challenges and limited housing inventory. As a result, the pipeline of new production remains thin.
“Conversely, demand for mortgage assets has strengthened. The current rate environment has pushed fixed income yields into the mid to high single digits, making mortgages increasingly attractive to a broad spectrum of institutional investors. Insurance companies, asset managers, and hedge funds are allocating capital to the space, seeking to capture spread in an otherwise yield-starved environment. This influx of demand has exerted tightening pressure across the mortgage credit curve, particularly in higher-quality non-agency, non-QM, and scratch and dent loans.
“Overall, the market is experiencing a technical imbalance (muted supply against resilient and in some cases growing demand) which has implications for pricing, spreads, and risk appetite as we move through the back half of the year.
“What about Agency & non-QM yields? Loan originators continue to expand their product mix to include more non-QM offerings, contributing to a steady increase in supply. Currently, RAMS is seeing approximately $1.7 billion of non-QM pools available for bid each month. Despite higher prices and tighter spreads, investor demand remains robust. Appetite for yield-rich product has remained strong, with buyers actively pursuing Bank Statement, DSCR, ITIN, and P&L loan pools. Consequently, non-QM yields remain tight relative to Agency and Jumbo loans, with origination coupons ranging from 7.5% to 8.0%. Originators are capitalizing on this demand by executing bulk sales into a yield and asset-starved market.
“In terms of volatility, overall volatility remains low, and spreads have held firm, but recent events serve as a reminder that dislocations can and do occur. The notable yield spike in April 2025, driven by the market reaction to "Trump Liberation Day" and the unexpected tariff announcement, illustrates how quickly sentiment can shift. U.S. equity futures dropped sharply, and gold surged to record highs as investors sought safety amid heightened uncertainty. Given these dynamics, we continue to advocate for regular mark-to-market valuations as a best practice to monitor risk and maintain pricing discipline.” Thank you, Vik!
Capital Markets
Where do the majority of VA and FHA loans go? Ginnie Mae’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio outstanding grew to $2.8 trillion as of July 2025. In addition, Ginnie Mae issued $47.7 billion in total MBS, resulting in net portfolio growth of $20.3 billion. Ginnie Mae facilitated the pooling and securitization of more than 409,000 loans for first-time homebuyers year to date. Key highlights from the July issuance include: $45.9 billion in Ginnie Mae II MBS, $1.7 billion in Ginnie Mae I MBS, including $1.6 billion for multifamily housing loans, and the pooling and securitization of loans for more than 140,000 households, including over 71,000 first-time homebuyers.
MBS and Treasuries fell on Thursday, owing in large part to the sharp rise in PPI wholesale prices, which surprised on the upside at +0.9 percent MoM in July (the highest since June of 2002) versus +0.2 percent surveyed and a flat reading percent in June. The market’s primary focus was the implications for the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core-PCE. In the context of post-Liberation Day inflationary fears, realized data has served as a reminder of how challenging it can be to translate White House headlines into meaningful projections for the real economy. There are so many moving parts associated with higher tariffs that inflation data shouldn’t surprise when it doesn’t match initial estimates. Overall, the economy is in the process of adjusting to a higher levy structure and it hasn’t (yet) translated into a sharp spike in inflation nor decline in overall economic activity.
The hope, at least prior to the pop in PPI, was that the Fed’s shift from focusing on inflation to focusing on employment will be in time to avoid tipping the economy into recession. However, slowing job creation suggests the labor market’s momentum may already be weakening. If that slowdown accelerates, the Fed may have to push rates below neutral into accommodative territory. And it’s clearly a divided Fed: St. Louis Fed President Musalem and San Francisco Fed President Daly saying that current data does not necessitate a larger cut. Immigration policy changes, sharp BLS payroll revisions, and a leadership change at the Bureau have introduced credibility concerns, making private measures like ADP data and weekly jobless claims more important to market participants.
Demand for mortgage assets has strengthened as the current rate environment has pushed fixed income yields into the mid- to high-single digits, making mortgages increasingly attractive to a wide range of institutional investors, including insurance companies, asset managers, and hedge funds seeking to capture spread in a yield-starved market. This influx of capital has tightened spreads across the mortgage credit curve, especially in higher-quality non-agency, non-QM, and scratch-and-dent loans. With supply remaining muted against resilient (and in some cases growing) demand, the market faces a technical imbalance that will shape pricing, spreads, and risk appetite through the remainder of the year.
Today’s economic calendar kicked off with first-tier data in the form of retail sales for July: +.5 percent, a tad lower than expectations; ex-auto +.3 percent, as expected. We’ve also received Empire manufacturing for August and July import/export prices (+.4 percent for import prices, much stronger than expected). Later today brings Industrial production and capacity utilization for July, business inventories for June, and preliminary August Michigan sentiment. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.73, and the 10-year yielding 4.29 after closing yesterday at 4.29 percent.
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