Today marked one of only 4 days of the year with an updated Fed dot plot. When it came out, there was a fairly pitiful volume response relative to other dot plot days and an even more underwhelming level of volatility in the bond market. It wasn't until almost 45 minutes later that bonds showed actual signs of life in response to Fed Chair Powell saying flat-out that they'll be able to make a better decision if they wait a couple of months. But even after that modest bounce in bond yields, we were just barely getting back to unchanged levels on the day. Bottom line, the Fed easily threaded the needle of bond market apathy--not too surprising given that it's a wide eye at the moment, but definitely not a given on dot plot day.
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- Jobless Claims
- 245k vs 245k f'cast, 250k prev
- Continued Claims
- 1945k vs 1940k f'cast, 1951k prev
- Building Permits
- 1.393m vs 1.430m f'cast
- Housing Starts
- 1.256m vs 1.36m f'cast
- Jobless Claims
Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed after econ data. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.366
Slightly friendly lead-off ahead of Fed. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.351
Almost no reaction to Fed so far. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.369
A bit of weakness during press conference, but leveling off now. MBS still up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.386