Thu, Mar 18 2021, 11:26 AM
Powell was reasonably dovish yesterday. He immediately shut down a reporter who asked when we could talk about tapering. He reiterated the need to r...
Wed, Mar 17 2021, 4:36 PM
Powell Punts on SLR; Bonds Survive... Sorta
Today could have been much worse even though no one will look...
Wed, Mar 17 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Mar 17 2021, 9:56 AM
For the 17th time in 2021, we can unhappily re-use the same lead in: just when you thought bonds surely wouldn't get any weaker... 10yr yields hit mo...
Tue, Mar 16 2021, 3:53 PM
No Help From Strong Auction or Weak Data; Waiting on The Fed
Bonds shrugged off a big miss in Retail Sales t...
Tue, Mar 16 2021, 10:19 AM
So far this morning, bonds have passed over the econ data in favor consolidating inside Friday's trading range. Given the proximity of the Fed announ...
Mon, Mar 15 2021, 3:52 PM
Fighting Good Fight, Waiting on Fed Day
Coming off a fairly rough Friday at the end of last week, it's mildl...
Mon, Mar 15 2021, 9:21 AM
Last week ended poorly for the bond market with yields jumping to new one year highs. It was also the first full week with 10yr yields trading above 2...
Fri, Mar 12 2021, 3:36 PM
Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend
By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string toge...
Fri, Mar 12 2021, 10:27 AM
By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string together several of the most reassuring days of 2021. Today's early losses provide a wa...
Thu, Mar 11 2021, 3:36 PM
Tame Treasury Auctions. What's Up With New NOO/2nd Fees?
The week's biggest potential market movers (the 10...
Thu, Mar 11 2021, 10:31 AM
Yesterday's much-anticipated 10yr auction was extremely underwhelming. Combine that with fairly flat trading levels at the moment and the mortgage co...
Wed, Mar 10 2021, 4:01 PM
Reasons For Both Hope and Caution
Today's 10yr auction was average, but that performance followed a mid-d...
Wed, Mar 10 2021, 10:02 AM
2021's rate spike is big enough and has been going on long enough that there is widespread speculation about how much worse it could get. While it is...
Tue, Mar 9 2021, 4:16 PM
Wednesday's 10yr Auction Could Cast a Big Vote on a Bounce
With bonds coming into the session in much strong...
Tue, Mar 9 2021, 9:58 AM
Much like February 26th, overnight strength in the bond market allows us to ask the same obvious question: "is this the bounce?" Much like Feb 26th, ...
Mon, Mar 8 2021, 3:38 PM
3-Day Weekend for Volatility; Waiting on Supply
After Friday's bond market rout, today's relatively calm tra...
Mon, Mar 8 2021, 10:04 AM
Over the past 3-4 months, the prospect of fiscal stimulus has done major damage to the bond market. It wouldn't have been a surprise to see more weak...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 5:28 PM
Huge Jobs Report, Logical Weakness, and a Nice Bounce, But...
Bonds did quite well today considering Powell'...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 10:30 AM
Today began with Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at 379k vs 182k forecast. Last month's numbers were revised up to 166k from 49k. The unemployment rate t...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 4:19 PM
Powell Does Exactly What He Was Supposed To (And Bonds Didn't Like It)
From this AM: "some recent analysis h...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 2:57 PM
There seems to be a fair amount of surprise and confusion surrounding today's bond market sell-off in response to Fed Chair Powell's Q&A with the WSJ....
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 9:29 AM
Monday and Tuesday brought a stronger start for bonds and, with it, hopes that a broader bounce was in the works. Wednesday dashed those hopes and in...
Wed, Mar 3 2021, 3:51 PM
MBS Outperform, But Bonds Fail To Confirm The Bounce
Tuesday's gains increased odds that a friendly bounce w...
Wed, Mar 3 2021, 9:30 AM
Bonds had a great day yesterday--not so much because the rally covered a ton of ground, but rather because it helped build a case for the end of the m...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 4:25 PM
Much Better Day For Bonds. Dare We Discuss It?
A fairly flat morning gave way to an afternoon rally, especia...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 9:34 AM
- The absence of stronger gains this week means bonds remain inside their short-term uptrend (see chart)
- 100% focus on UMBS 2.5 coupon (why?)
...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 3:57 PM
Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy
- New week, new month, new chance for yields to confirm a ...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 10:13 AM
After Friday's impressive (and much-needed) bounce toward lower yields, the new week/month took on even greater importance than normal as a venue for ...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 5:47 PM
Nice Bounce! Now What?
- An early bounce turned into an even bigger, friendlier bounce at the end of the...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 4:58 PM
Just When You Thought It Wouldn't Get Much Worse
Staggeringly weak day for bonds.
2.0 MBS coupon is now ...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 10:37 AM
It got much worse. Bond yields were up more than 8bps by the open with the 10yr just a hair under 1.47%. It might be hard for traders to avoid ringi...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 4:18 PM
Is It Another Trap and Which Coupon Do I Watch Now?
Yesterday's bond market resilience offered hope for a bo...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 9:49 AM
Yesterday saw yields hold at just slightly lower highs on an intraday basis, thus offering a glimmer of hope for a bond bounce. We discussed the risk...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 4:37 PM
Glimmer of Hope in Bonds, But It Might Be a Trap
Bonds started the day in roughly unchanged territory and pr...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 10:04 AM
In the past few weeks--and especially the past few days--we've seen a sharp spike in MBS yields relative to Treasury yields. And yes, the Treasury yi...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 5:00 PM
Huge Mortgage-Specific Weakness
The rate reset continues. Just when you thought 10yr yields surely couldn't...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 10:15 AM
Bond yields have been surging higher in February with last week bringing the sharpest losses so far. The move has surprised more than a few market pa...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 3:22 PM
Surprisingly Swift Selling in The Bond Market; What's Next?
This week has been one of the most surprising se...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 10:13 AM
Given recent temperature trends, we're well within our right to expect actual bears to be in hibernation. How about bond market bears? They've eaten...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 4:43 PM
No Easy Answers Today; Still Anyone's Game
Bonds were weaker earlier in the trading session but rallied back...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 10:12 AM
We talked about momentum indicators being 'oversold' yesterday--a possible prelude to a friendly bounce in bonds. If that narrative is going to play ...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 4:13 PM
Looking For Silver Linings Despite Falling Sky
After a huge day of snowball selling yesterday, bonds started...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 11:08 AM
Bonds have been hammered by selling pressure in 2021--especially in February. When it comes to many parts of the financial market, and especially bon...
Tue, Feb 16 2021, 4:06 PM
Panic In The Bond Market
It's no mystery that longer-term Treasury yields have been trending higher since Au...
Tue, Feb 16 2021, 9:28 AM
Last week ended with snowball selling in the bond market. Given the approach of a holiday weekend, there was a chance that the weakness was overdon...
Fri, Feb 12 2021, 1:10 PM
Snowball Selling in Bonds After Mid-Week Rally Fizzles
We were looking for a friendly correction in bonds th...
Fri, Feb 12 2021, 9:38 AM
As of Monday, bonds had closed at higher yields for 8 straight days. Such streaks beg for a correction. They rarely last longer. The correction bec...
Thu, Feb 11 2021, 3:24 PM
Friendly Bounce May Already Have Run Its Course
Friendly bounces after strong selling sprees are slightly mo...
Thu, Feb 11 2021, 9:27 AM
For the most part, this week has been "so far, so good" through Wednesday. Yields have pushed back nicely after topping out at the highest levels in ...
MBS Market Alerts
