Fri, May 28 2021, 3:03 PM
Decent Gains Despite Hotter Inflation Data
While there was nothing especially memorable about today's tradin...
Fri, May 28 2021, 10:04 AM
When we pondered the possibility (or frankly, the likelihood) of core inflation numbers hitting 3.0%+ several months ago, there was no way to know exa...
Thu, May 27 2021, 3:37 PM
Moderate Weakness; Decent Treasury Auction
7yr Treasury auctions haven't been great for the bond market in 2...
Thu, May 27 2021, 9:28 AM
With so much uncertainty about economic outcomes in the coming months, and with a healthy amount of bond market weakness already seen in the first qua...
Wed, May 26 2021, 3:35 PM
Yields Find a Floor Ahead of Month-End and Long Weekend
Today's most notable feature was a paradoxical move ...
Wed, May 26 2021, 9:41 AM
When yields began to rise in August 2020 (and when they continued to rise at an even fast pace in Q1), we began looking for an intermission that wou...
Tue, May 25 2021, 4:05 PM
Surprisingly Strong Move For No Great Reason
While there were a few positive developments for bonds today, t...
Tue, May 25 2021, 9:27 AM
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin had the mic this morning at the NC Chamber of Commerce and one of his comments does a good job of capturing the esse...
Mon, May 24 2021, 3:56 PM
Uneventful But Slightly Stronger Start
At times, and especially during the summertime months, Mondays end up...
Mon, May 24 2021, 10:51 AM
May's nonfarm payrolls number (released on June 4th) is the next obvious instance of a big ticket market mover. Between now and then, there are sever...
Fri, May 21 2021, 4:08 PM
Stronger Data Proves No Match For The Sideways Grind
Bonds have done a good job of clearing hurdles of vario...
Fri, May 21 2021, 10:00 AM
Who would have ever imagined that a week where the Fed Minutes included the first notion of post-pandemic instance of "tapering" could end up being "q...
Thu, May 20 2021, 3:39 PM
Inflation Expectations And Weaker Econ Data Helping Bonds
Ever since last week's CPI data caused inflation e...
Thu, May 20 2021, 9:49 AM
Wednesday was a bit silly in the sense that a fairly innocuous reference to tapering in the Fed Minutes was blown out of proportion by the time market...
Wed, May 19 2021, 3:48 PM
Questionable Taper Talk Conclusions Result in Heavy Selling
The word "heavy" requires some qualification. I...
Wed, May 19 2021, 9:10 AM
Bonds were flat to start the overnight session, but moved higher right at the start of European trading. This has been a major theme in the past few ...
Tue, May 18 2021, 3:26 PM
Low Volume/Volatility For a Second Straight Day
Although it was last Wednesday that offered the lion's share...
Tue, May 18 2021, 9:09 AM
Today's only notable economic release is helping the bond market get off to a stronger start today. New Residential Construction, came out weaker tha...
Mon, May 17 2021, 4:03 PM
Super Slow Day; Still Waiting For Breakout
Whether it's the narrow range between 1.62 and 1.68% in 10yr yiel...
Mon, May 17 2021, 9:24 AM
Q4, 2020 was all about yields moving higher at a gradual pace. Same story for Q1, 2021, but at a much quicker pace. If Q2, 2021 has a them, it's bee...
Fri, May 14 2021, 4:32 PM
Weaker Retail Sales Casts Vote For Range-Holding
Wednesday's CPI data was akin to some passionate political ...
Fri, May 14 2021, 9:42 AM
Wednesday's CPI data was akin to some passionate political orator making a case for the country to go to war against low rates. Yesterday's 30yr bond...
Thu, May 13 2021, 3:49 PM
Supply Storm Weathered (Could Have Been Worse)
After yesterday's brisk sell-off in the bond market, today's ...
Thu, May 13 2021, 10:10 AM
Bonds are off to a much better start today vs yesterday (it wouldn't take much, consider yesterday was the worst day in 2+ months). This morning's pr...
Wed, May 12 2021, 4:20 PM
Inflation Data Throws Down Gauntlet. Markets Panic
It's easy enough to imagine or even expect that near-term...
Wed, May 12 2021, 10:51 AM
After last Friday's weaker jobs report, bonds rallied at first, but then bounced into weaker territory in just a few hours. That failure meant bond y...
Tue, May 11 2021, 4:02 PM
Bonds Still Struggling. 10yr Staging For a Bigger Move?
After holding ground admirably overnight despite the...
Tue, May 11 2021, 10:08 AM
Bonds lost ground moderately yesterday and blame was most easily assigned to the broad notion of "supply." More specifically, a record-setting round ...
Mon, May 10 2021, 4:02 PM
Heavy Issuance Weighs on Bonds
We knew bonds would be skittish about Treasury auctions this week, but the de...
Mon, May 10 2021, 9:44 AM
The week gets off to a slow start without any significant data on tap for Monday or Tuesday. The Treasury auction cycle becomes more relevant on Wedn...
Fri, May 7 2021, 3:44 PM
Bonds Fail to Capitalize on Super Weak Jobs Report
Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 266k compared to a median for...
Thu, May 6 2021, 3:50 PM
Lock/Float Considerations Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds made it through Thursday without any notable volatility...
Thu, May 6 2021, 10:13 AM
Thursday kicked off with several potential bond market threats. Asian markets fired up again after a week of holidays. The influx of volume could ea...
Wed, May 5 2021, 3:35 PM
MBS Near 2-Month Highs After Tame Econ Data
Coming into this week, Friday's jobs report was our best chance ...
Wed, May 5 2021, 8:50 AM
The bond market isn't tasked with underwriting any new long-term Treasury supply today, but it will have to digest the most recent refunding announcem...
Tue, May 4 2021, 4:01 PM
Earnings Season in Full Swing as Bonds Hold Range
Have you heard the one about Ferrari moving the bond marke...
Tue, May 4 2021, 9:04 AM
Have you heard the one about Ferrari moving the bond market? Well, now you have. In an apparent mystery move before the start of the domestic sessio...
Mon, May 3 2021, 4:01 PM
Logical Reaction to Data Sets Stage For Interesting Week
The week began with bond markets reacting to weaker...
Mon, May 3 2021, 9:50 AM
One of the most notable themes of the past year is the relative unwillingness on the part of the bond market to make a big fuss over individual econom...
Fri, Apr 30 2021, 6:08 PM
Uneventful Month-End Friday. Next Week Could Be Different
Bonds recovered modestly but respectably after st...
Fri, Apr 30 2021, 10:02 AM
Bonds are starting the day in decent shape with 10yr yields just slightly lower than yesterday's latest levels. The bigger story is MBS outperformanc...
Thu, Apr 29 2021, 3:59 PM
Awesome Bounce Back But Still a Cautionary Tale
Bonds started the day quite a bit weaker after several piece...
Thu, Apr 29 2021, 9:09 AM
Bonds started the day quite a bit weaker after several pieces of EU econ data came in much stronger than expected. Domestic data hasn't done anything...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 4:29 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Digesting Friendly Fed Message
Bonds were slightly cautious ahead of the Fed announ...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 9:29 AM
Today's Fed announcement isn't likely to contain any major revelations for the bond market, nor to cause any significant volatility. Logical conclusi...
Tue, Apr 27 2021, 3:30 PM
Another Bad 7yr Auction Day, Even If We Can't Blame The Auction
Bonds were feeling a bit defensive ahead of ...
Tue, Apr 27 2021, 9:56 AM
7yr Treasury auctions haven't been great for bonds in 2021. Every time we've had one, bonds have sold off. In fact, the late February example proved...
Fri, Apr 23 2021, 2:49 PM
Winning Streak Thwarted, But Not By Much
This morning's Day Ahead pondered the possibility of a 4th straight...
Thu, Apr 22 2021, 4:01 PM
Forget the ECB; Taxes Saved Bonds Today
First off, bonds didn't really need "saving." They were only modest...
MBS Market Alerts
