Tue, Jan 5 2021, 3:53 PM
Tomorrow Could Be a Very Big Day For Bonds
Bonds experienced a bit of weakness today, but 10yr yields bounce...
Tue, Jan 5 2021, 9:13 AM
Forget the economy. Forget covid. Forget Fed policy. Those things will all be back to move the bond market fairly soon, but first, there will be an...
Mon, Jan 4 2021, 4:17 PM
Markets Back in Action, Hurrying Up and Waiting
Bonds were back in action today although you'd hardly know i...
Mon, Jan 4 2021, 9:14 AM
The presidential election happened 2 months ago and since then, bonds really haven't moved other than in response to the Pfizer vaccine news on Nov 9t...
Thu, Dec 31 2020, 1:55 PM
Token Gains, Light Volume, Early Close
Bond market focus remains on the Georgia senate run-off election day ...
Thu, Dec 31 2020, 9:24 AM
With Europe and Japan out on holiday, bonds had the lightest overnight session of the year today, and domestic hours won't be much better apart from a...
Wed, Dec 30 2020, 2:43 PM
Bonds Sticking to Year-End Script
Bonds did a perfect job sticking to their year-end script today. It reads...
Wed, Dec 30 2020, 8:57 AM
Election years always bring increased uncertainty to financial markets--some more than others. This is definitely one of those years--not because of ...
Tue, Dec 29 2020, 3:52 PM
Bonds on Cruise Control Unless Senate Approves Stimulus Upgrade
Barring an unexpected vote (and passage) of ...
Tue, Dec 29 2020, 9:39 AM
With Trump signing the covid relief and government funding bill last week, the bond market had seemingly moved past its downside risks as they related...
Mon, Dec 28 2020, 4:00 PM
Uneventful Day Despite Covid Relief Bill
The big news at the end of last week was Trump's decision to veto t...
Mon, Dec 28 2020, 8:50 AM
The big news at the end of last week was Trump's decision to veto the defense bill (which, in turn, meant a veto of the broader stimulus/spending bill...
Thu, Dec 24 2020, 12:51 PM
Bonds Wearing Holiday Clothes Despite Trump Veto and Brexit
Along with the Friday after Thanksgiving, Christ...
Thu, Dec 24 2020, 9:58 AM
Bonds will close early today (2pm ET) and will be fully closed tomorrow. Along with the Friday after Thanksgiving, this is typically the lightest tra...
Wed, Dec 23 2020, 4:07 PM
Brexit Behind Selling Spree, But Bonds Defend The Ceiling
While headlines regarding the potential veto of th...
Wed, Dec 23 2020, 8:30 AM
Today's econ calendar is quite a bit bigger than normal. It's also bigger than it would be if this was just any old week with a full 5 trading days. ...
Tue, Dec 22 2020, 3:38 PM
Volatility is Possible, But It Wasn't Possible Today
Bonds have decidedly engaged in a stereotypical year-en...
Tue, Dec 22 2020, 10:02 AM
With the passage of the stimulus/spending bill last night, the bond market cleared its last major hurdle for the week/month/quarter/year. By the time...
Mon, Dec 21 2020, 4:23 PM
Bonds Still Sideways, But MBS Underperform
Bond yields and stock prices bottomed at the same time in the ove...
Fri, Dec 18 2020, 4:58 PM
2020 In The Books Apart From Token Stimulus Reaction
By the end of the trading day, congress was seemingly n...
Fri, Dec 18 2020, 9:51 AM
Next week, the bond market will only be open for 3.5 days. In that time, the bond market will see a majority of its 'year-end' trades (asset allocati...
Thu, Dec 17 2020, 4:03 PM
Seasonally Sideways Sans Stimulus
With Fed day behind us, the much-anticipated stimulus/spending bill is all...
Thu, Dec 17 2020, 8:58 AM
The combination of a friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell and an unfriendly absence of change to the bond buying policy left the bond marke...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 4:30 PM
Fed Abstains From Bond-Buying Change, But Powell Delivers
Speculation about whether or not the Fed would mak...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 9:33 AM
Fiscal stimulus has been a hot topic for the bond market since the pandemic first kicked into a high enough gear to require fiscal support for the US ...
Tue, Dec 15 2020, 4:59 PM
What Exactly Might The Fed Do Tomorrow and Why Should We Care?
MBS suffered, somewhat, from supply/demand is...
Tue, Dec 15 2020, 9:54 AM
With the exception of a surprise stimulus plan announcement or a huge departure from expectations in certain economic reports, the bond market is lock...
Mon, Dec 14 2020, 3:15 PM
Bonds Catch a Break From Downbeat Headlines; Fed Still in Focus
Wednesday's Fed announcement is the biggest ...
Mon, Dec 14 2020, 9:11 AM
Between vaccines, Brexit, covid surges, covid lockdowns, holiday retail, and various political headlines, it seems like the market should have a diver...
Fri, Dec 11 2020, 5:58 PM
An Epic Tale of Mortgage Rates vs MBS vs Treasuries
Risks are beginning to mount for the rate outlook--at le...
Fri, Dec 11 2020, 10:26 AM
The past few months have seen several troubling, but not unexpected developments for the long-term rate outlook. While they're not the type of thre...
Thu, Dec 10 2020, 4:06 PM
Bonds Are Getting Ready to Move, Probably
Bonds are always moving, to some extent, but they haven't moved ou...
Thu, Dec 10 2020, 10:08 AM
One interesting theme that's emerging in December is that of weaker economic data actually hurting the bond market. This is certainly not in the conv...
Wed, Dec 9 2020, 4:47 PM
MBS-Specific Volatility Today, But No Major Change to Bigger-Picture
A fresh (or perhaps "slightly less stal...
Wed, Dec 9 2020, 10:05 AM
Last night, a new stimulus plan was floated to Pelosi by Mnuchin. In theory, it includes provisions for several democratic sticking points, thus offe...
Tue, Dec 8 2020, 4:47 PM
Bond Watchers Clearly Can't Choose The Wine in Front of ______
There are quite a few potential justification...
Tue, Dec 8 2020, 10:50 AM
By mid-November, bonds were rallying after hitting their weakest levels since the start of the pandemic. Due to the timing (i.e. heading into a holid...
Mon, Dec 7 2020, 4:19 PM
Bond Market Threats on Hold For Now, But Still Lurking
Brexit-related headlines helped the bond market recov...
Mon, Dec 7 2020, 9:48 AM
It was impossible to avoid Brexit-related headlines in 2016. Indeed, they were the driving force behind Treasury yields hitting new all-time lows at ...
Fri, Dec 4 2020, 6:03 PM
Big Bond Spike, Mortgage Rate Defiance, Lock or Float?
Today was characterized by an aggressive spike in 10y...
Fri, Dec 4 2020, 10:45 AM
The cause and effect relationship between NFP (the "non-farm payrolls" component of the big jobs report) and the bond market is a tale as old as time....
Thu, Dec 3 2020, 4:29 PM
Bonds Find Their Range Ahead of Jobs Report
The first 2 days of the month (yesterday and the day before) wer...
Thu, Dec 3 2020, 9:19 AM
What is a "dip buyer?" A "dip" refers to a drop in the price of an asset in the financial markets. In this case, a dip in bond prices would correspo...
Wed, Dec 2 2020, 4:06 PM
Breaking Down The Crazy Relationship of MBS, Mortgage Rates, and Treasuries
Bonds showed up to sell today--a...
Wed, Dec 2 2020, 9:25 AM
Following yesterday's sharp losses, the bond market didn't do much overnight, nor is it doing much to push back in the other direction this morning. ...
Tue, Dec 1 2020, 4:06 PM
Serious Sell-Off in Bonds. Time to Panic?
A new month brought in new momentum for the bond market--a lot of...
Tue, Dec 1 2020, 9:34 AM
Remember the end of July? We were worried that an entire month of gains in bonds could give way to a momentum shift in August. It did. September br...
Mon, Nov 30 2020, 4:19 PM
Uneventful Month-End Day For Bonds, But MBS Outperform
Final trial results for Moderna's vaccine (it's still...
Mon, Nov 30 2020, 10:08 AM
Thanksgiving week can't ever be fully trusted to provide an accurate glimpse of market momentum. In this year's case, it didn't really say much anywa...
MBS Market Alerts
