Wed, Feb 10 2021, 3:23 PM
CPI and 10yr Auction Make a Case For a Near-Term Rate Ceiling
NOTE: charts look weak this morning despite st...
Wed, Feb 10 2021, 9:29 AM
Contrary to some of the wholesale price pressures suggested by recent reports (like the ISM manufacturing "prices paid" component, which rose to the h...
Tue, Feb 9 2021, 3:18 PM
Locking vs Floating After Underwhelming "Rally Day."
The recent losing streak in the bond market made it inc...
Tue, Feb 9 2021, 9:27 AM
After 8 straight days with yields closing higher than they opened, bonds are starting out in stronger territory with a chance to reverse the curse. T...
Mon, Feb 8 2021, 4:03 PM
Reasons For Both Hope and Fear In Today's Trading
Bonds have been in a consistent trend leading toward highe...
Mon, Feb 8 2021, 10:25 AM
There were spooky stories told around bond market campfires late last week. The monster in those stories was the looming specter of the Treasury au...
Fri, Feb 5 2021, 5:16 PM
Treasury Slide Transcends NFP; MBS Outperform
Bond yields rose overnight--well before NFP came out--followin...
Fri, Feb 5 2021, 10:03 AM
The day is young, but off to an uncommonly volatile start following 2 key inputs. The overnight session brought news of the Senate passing the $1.9 t...
Thu, Feb 4 2021, 3:54 PM
Markets May Be Underestimating Tomorrow's Jobs Report
Today's trading session was rather uneventful for b...
Thu, Feb 4 2021, 10:05 AM
This is a bit of a paradoxical outlook. In short, things have been consistently downbeat enough for the bond market that we're due to see a friendly d...
Wed, Feb 3 2021, 4:20 PM
Bad Vibes Persist For Bonds and Rates
Bonds began the day in weaker shape, thus keeping the threat of an ong...
Wed, Feb 3 2021, 9:52 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the bond market is in the midst of a big-picture correction from the all-time lows seen in the middle of ...
Tue, Feb 2 2021, 3:39 PM
Mid-Day Recovery, But Broader Risks Remain
Bonds did well enough yesterday to suggest yields might not be in...
Tue, Feb 2 2021, 9:47 AM
Between Friday and Monday, it looked like the bond market might try to hold at slightly better levels than those implied by the recent bounce at 1.0% ...
Mon, Feb 1 2021, 3:42 PM
Fairly Balanced Day For Bonds and Fairly Balanced Outlook For Now
This morning's commentary discusses the tw...
Mon, Feb 1 2021, 9:14 AM
Bonds find themselves in an interesting position heading into February. On the one hand, there's a well-established tepid recovery narrative that coi...
Fri, Jan 29 2021, 5:35 PM
Decent Recovery After Scary Start But Risks Remain
10yr yields were as high as 1.105% at one point today, bu...
Fri, Jan 29 2021, 9:40 AM
Yesterday's bond market weakness ran the risk of signalling an end to the winning streak enjoyed since January 12th. Those gains were fairly steady a...
Thu, Jan 28 2021, 3:52 PM
Why Are We Losing Ground Today and What's The Implication?
Due to its timing and size, today's bond market w...
Thu, Jan 28 2021, 8:31 AM
Bonds have rallied or held steady every day this week and the net effect is a visit to the 1.0% psychological floor for 10yr yields. Psychology aside...
Wed, Jan 27 2021, 4:59 PM
Very Tame Reaction to The Fed Despite Bond-Friendly Message
Bonds took a bit of a lead-off heading into toda...
Wed, Jan 27 2021, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jan 27 2021, 9:42 AM
With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%. Today's early gai...
Tue, Jan 26 2021, 3:58 PM
MBS Outperform Treasuries Thank to Light Supply at Fed Buying Operation
Treasuries didn't gain any new groun...
Tue, Jan 26 2021, 9:44 AM
10yr yields broke below 1.075% yesterday--a level that had proven tough to break despite multiple attempts in the past 2 weeks. The move followed sev...
Mon, Jan 25 2021, 4:17 PM
Strong Move in Treasuries But MBS Underperform (Significantly)
While much of the world of finance and instit...
Mon, Jan 25 2021, 9:31 AM
Another week, another chance to see if bonds will continue to avoid confrontation with the boundaries of the recent range. 1.075% emerged as the floo...
Fri, Jan 22 2021, 4:24 PM
Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note
It's rare to see non-holidays Fridays in January be quite as underwhel...
Fri, Jan 22 2021, 9:25 AM
The nature of the pandemic has made for some very mechanical and orderly market movement. The best example of this in the bond market is the "trend...
Thu, Jan 21 2021, 3:32 PM
Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain
Yields were breaking higher as the domestic session be...
Thu, Jan 21 2021, 9:56 AM
The GA senate election shift is old news. It did the damage it was always likely to do, but bonds had a good show of support by the end of the follow...
Wed, Jan 20 2021, 9:50 AM
Does inauguration day matter for the bond market? Not as such, no. To be sure, the changing of the guard in D.C. is indeed a big deal for the bond...
Tue, Jan 19 2021, 3:51 PM
Uneventful Start This Week; Next Move Remains Debatable
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied ...
Tue, Jan 19 2021, 9:39 AM
Last week's bond trading served the role of establishing a ceiling for yields after their biggest spike in nearly a year (and the case could be made t...
Fri, Jan 15 2021, 4:42 PM
Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss)
Relative to the spectrum of possibilities, endin...
Fri, Jan 15 2021, 9:27 AM
After the GA senate elections, the bond market immediately knew it needed to prepare for additional stimulus, even if moderate democratic voices might...
Thu, Jan 14 2021, 4:03 PM
Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's Stimulus Details
As we discussed yesterday, the strong mid-week...
Thu, Jan 14 2021, 9:48 AM
A few hours after markets closed yesterday, news began coming out regarding a Biden aide mentioning tonight's stimulus proposal would be in the $2 tri...
Wed, Jan 13 2021, 4:25 PM
Important Victory For Bonds, and Another Battle Ahead
Rates rallied today. Despite a positive reaction to a...
Wed, Jan 13 2021, 9:28 AM
With yesterday offering the first legitimate push back against the recent sell-off, today becomes one of three critically important days in establishi...
Tue, Jan 12 2021, 4:16 PM
Much-Anticipated Correction Finally Arrives. Now What?
This morning's alert noted a scary scenario playing ...
Tue, Jan 12 2021, 10:04 AM
This morning's alert notes that the bond market is in the midst of one of its scarier scenarios. The ingredients are as follows: a long run in a reco...
Mon, Jan 11 2021, 4:51 PM
Selling Spree Continues; MBS Underperforming
Earlier in the day, Treasuries looked to be selling off at a sl...
Mon, Jan 11 2021, 9:33 AM
0.96% was a well-established ceiling for 10yr yields in November and December. Despite numerous intraday breaks, yields only managed to close higher ...
Fri, Jan 8 2021, 3:44 PM
Bonds Determined To Sell Despite Weaker NFP
The bond market considered rallying in response to this morning'...
Fri, Jan 8 2021, 9:40 AM
While it's essentially a given the bigger stimulus is on the way with democrats controlling the senate (thus implying more Treasury issuance and a qui...
Thu, Jan 7 2021, 5:17 PM
Negative Momentum Remains Threatening Ahead of Jobs Report
We came into today hoping (but not necessarily ex...
Thu, Jan 7 2021, 9:38 AM
10yr yields were at the bottom edge of a months-long uptrend heading into the Georgia senate election. One result would have helped them break out to...
Wed, Jan 6 2021, 4:49 PM
Crazy Day For Bonds. Is The Worst Over?
For 2 straight months, and especially over the past few weeks, we'v...
Wed, Jan 6 2021, 9:35 AM
For 2 straight months, and especially over the past few weeks, we've been calling out the Georgia senate election as the biggest ticket market mover f...
MBS Market Alerts
