Thu, Aug 19 2021, 4:31 PM
Bonds Finally Have a Boring Day
10yr yields traded in a range of less than 3bps during the domestic session ...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 11:23 AM
In late July, bonds rode a wave of momentum toward lower yields with many traders targeting the 1.25% zone in 10yr Treasuries. That floor was broken o...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 4:31 PM
Bonds Sell Rumor, Buy New on Inconsequential Fed Minutes
A lot has happened in the past 3 months--especially...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 10:28 AM
The Fed has increasingly been discussing its tapering strategy. They haven't been shy about saying so. In fact, at least 5 members have vocally supp...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 3:51 PM
What's Up With MBS Underperformance Today?
As long as we're not dealing with big, obvious, unique market rea...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 10:06 AM
The Retail Sales report is generally considered to be in the upper echelon of economic reports when it comes to bond market impact. As such, it's som...
Mon, Aug 16 2021, 4:46 PM
Drifty Day, Treasuries Hold Weekly Gains, MBS Underperform.
With a strong move last Friday, the bond market ...
Mon, Aug 16 2021, 10:55 AM
Just when you thought rates were bouncing higher after hitting 6 month lows, the new week begins with bonds re-staking a claim to the recent, strong...
Fri, Aug 13 2021, 4:29 PM
Unexpected Snowball Rally After Consumer Sentiment Data
Snowball moves in markets, by their nature, tend to ...
Fri, Aug 13 2021, 10:30 AM
The current week fills a corrective role in the bigger picture, helping to officially mark the end of 4 straight months of accelerating improvement (w...
Thu, Aug 12 2021, 5:05 PM
Less Volatility For Bonds (For Now)
As the week winds down, a potentially scary shift into a steeper rising ...
Thu, Aug 12 2021, 10:03 AM
Yesterday marked "the roll" for 30yr fixed UMBS (what's this?), but that's not all that was rolling. The proverbial "good times" began--well, you kno...
Wed, Aug 11 2021, 5:32 PM
Great Bounce After Auction. What Now?
We were hoping--perhaps even expecting (to some extent)--to see the r...
Wed, Aug 11 2021, 11:30 AM
Bonds have recently been on a rather sharp selling spree leading up to and away from last Friday's jobs report. After that it was the following Wedne...
Tue, Aug 10 2021, 3:28 PM
Corporate Bonds Making Life Tough This Week
As feared and expected, the combination of Treasury auctions and...
Tue, Aug 10 2021, 12:00 PM
Bonds are still in the process of trying to find a ceiling after embarking on a decisive uptrend that began in the middle of last week and accelerated...
Mon, Aug 9 2021, 3:28 PM
Bonds Turn Red Early, But Outright Losses Were Minimal
The week began with refreshing stability and modest g...
Mon, Aug 9 2021, 10:33 AM
If bonds needed an excuse to move up and out of their lowest range since February, last week's jobs report provided enough of an opportunity for selle...
Fri, Aug 6 2021, 3:56 PM
Bigger Picture Bounce Becomes Bigger Risk, But Not The only Risk
Friday's strong jobs report certainly deser...
Fri, Aug 6 2021, 11:15 AM
NFP printed at 943k vs a median forecast of 870k. The previous month was revised up by 88k as well. Unemployment ticked down to 5.4% vs a 5.7% forec...
Thu, Aug 5 2021, 4:28 PM
Bonds Definitely Playing Defense Ahead of NFP
Friday's nonfarm payrolls data (NFP) will be more important th...
Thu, Aug 5 2021, 10:02 AM
Bonds have been increasingly willing to react to economic data as we approach the fall months (the time frame in which the Fed's taper announcement be...
Wed, Aug 4 2021, 4:02 PM
Sell-Off Talked Tough But Backed Down When Confronted
On a week that started with a downbeat ISM Manufacturi...
Wed, Aug 4 2021, 10:54 AM
After a quiet, boring Tuesday, Wednesday is bringing the heat. It looked like things would get off to a solid start for bonds after weaker ADP data e...
Tue, Aug 3 2021, 5:15 PM
Inconsequential Trading Day With Some MBS Underperformance
Today was remarkably unremarkable. Volume and vo...
Tue, Aug 3 2021, 11:30 AM
There is always a lull in covid reporting over the weekend as several states no longer publish weekend data. Monday's counts are thus informative as ...
Mon, Aug 2 2021, 3:40 PM
Bonds Surge Into August Despite Headwinds
It was an interesting juxtaposition to see a Fed speaker talking a...
Mon, Aug 2 2021, 10:59 AM
Due to the presence of bigger ticket economic data (among other things), it was fair to expect more volatility in the current week compared to the pre...
Fri, Jul 30 2021, 4:12 PM
Strong, Calm Week. Next Week Might Be Different
Saying "next week might be different" is of questionable va...
Fri, Jul 30 2021, 11:00 AM
The sun also rises and inflation also misses its forecast! After several months of reasonably big upside surprises, core PCE inflation finally undersh...
Thu, Jul 29 2021, 3:56 PM
Slightly Weaker Today, But Still In The Recent Range
Thursday proved to be a very forgettable session for th...
Thu, Jul 29 2021, 10:47 AM
With the Fed having confirmed their expected stance (closer to tapering, tolerant of short-term inflation, and plenty of pandemic-related uncertainty ...
Wed, Jul 28 2021, 4:34 PM
Fed Hints At Tapering, But Bonds Don't Care
Why are rates lower despite the Fed announcement taking another ...
Wed, Jul 28 2021, 2:01 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jul 28 2021, 11:06 AM
Like 8 other Wednesdays each year, today brings a healthy dose of volatility risk from the Fed Announcement and press conference (note: this is one of...
Tue, Jul 27 2021, 4:01 PM
Deceptively Interesting Trading Range Ahead of Fed
After a move up from 1.25 to nearly 1.30% on Monday, 10yr...
Tue, Jul 27 2021, 10:17 AM
After having gained so much over the past 4 months (not to mention the removal of the adverse market fee), and with a Fed announcement due out tomorro...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 6:20 PM
t was a slow trading day for the most part until the last 90 minutes. Until then, MBS and Treasuries were generally flat. As the day wound down, yie...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 10:05 AM
Heading into the weekend, the delta variant continued driving a surge in U.S. covid case counts with Friday's 118k+ being the highest day-over-day inc...
Fri, Jul 23 2021, 3:19 PM
Ending on an Equivocal Note Ahead of Fed Week
If we look through the small-scale volatility throughout the w...
Fri, Jul 23 2021, 10:26 AM
After a stellar Monday and a big reversal on Tuesday, Wednesday stands out as the week's big shift back toward last week's trading range. Today's ses...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 4:03 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient With Help From ECB
This morning's ECB announcement proved to be moderately bond-frien...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 10:20 AM
This morning's ECB announcement proved to be moderately bond-friendly. Combined with weaker Jobless Claims data, it's been enough to keep bonds inside...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 5:01 PM
Defensive Shift Ahead of ECB Announcement
Coming into the week, there was some speculation that Monday's bon...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 9:23 AM
With a moderate dose of weakness in the overnight session, 10yr yields have quickly found themselves on the doorstep of 1.25%--a level that marked the...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 3:24 PM
Intraday Weakness vs Bigger Picture Strength
There comes a time in the midst of an aggressive snowball rally...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 10:00 AM
Even before this week, the mid-2021 bond rally exceeded many expectations with the 10yr yield's brief love tap of the 1.25% level last week. It's onl...
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 3:37 PM
Big Bond Rally Just Got Bigger
U.S. traders fired up the screens this morning to see a substantial bond rall...
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 9:13 AM
The week is off to a very strong start as heavy selling in stocks coincided with a flight to safety in bonds during the overnight session. Treasuries...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 5:09 PM
Quiet Bond Market Leaves Focus on Demise of Adverse Market Fee
Seemingly out of the blue, the much-maligned ...
MBS Market Alerts
