Fri, Nov 27 2020, 9:21 AM
For the US bond market, the day after Thanksgiving is frequently a reflection of the EU bond market. Strength in EU bonds translated to 10yr yields im...
Wed, Nov 25 2020, 3:44 PM
Fed Minutes Hurt MBS, But Not Quite As Badly As It Seemed
Today's Fed Minutes offered a more detailed accoun...
Wed, Nov 25 2020, 10:12 AM
Here it is! The trading community's ONE guaranteed chance of the year for a 4.5-day weekend. Even though Wednesday is never officially designated as...
Tue, Nov 24 2020, 4:44 PM
Modest Weakness Persists as Markets Rotate Back Toward Risk
Whether we want to pin the blame on Trump's will...
Tue, Nov 24 2020, 1:30 PM
If you'd like to read the official FHFA press release, here you go, but here's the skinny on the new conforming loan limit of $548,250 for 2021, up fr...
Tue, Nov 24 2020, 10:02 AM
With very little by way of significant data or events as far as financial markets are concerned, today's most interesting revelation will be FHFA's an...
Mon, Nov 23 2020, 4:34 PM
Bond Market Weakness Introduce Risk of In-Range Bounce
Bonds were weaker overnight following European econom...
Mon, Nov 23 2020, 10:18 AM
Any time there's at least a moderate amount of movement in the overnight session, a consensus typically emerges as to the key driver of said movement....
Fri, Nov 20 2020, 3:43 PM
Bonds Are Boring Today, So Let's Talk About 1.5 UMBS
Treasuries did little to react to a smattering of poten...
Fri, Nov 20 2020, 11:18 AM
There are no significant events on the economic calendar today, and it is the last full trading day of the last full trading week before the winter ho...
Thu, Nov 19 2020, 4:24 PM
Tame Trading Day Leaves Outlook Intact
The bond market has been in a bullish consolidation pattern since las...
Thu, Nov 19 2020, 9:24 AM
The bond market has entered a period of consolidation after the recent run up toward 1.0% in 10yr yields. Whether we're looking at the market action ...
Wed, Nov 18 2020, 4:57 PM
Yields Give Up Early Lead But Remain Near 2-Week Lows
Today ended up being about as big of a roller coaster ...
Wed, Nov 18 2020, 10:33 AM
Bonds are making a case for a bigger picture bounce with 10yr yields turning a corner just before hitting the epic psychological barrier of 1.0%. Mor...
Tue, Nov 17 2020, 4:04 PM
Rates Running Out of Things to be Afraid Of?
Bonds improved today--mostly during the overnight trading sessi...
Tue, Nov 17 2020, 10:06 AM
In spite of yesterday's Moderna vaccine news, 10yr yields managed to end the day nearly unchanged. More impressively, they're heading into the curren...
Mon, Nov 16 2020, 3:36 PM
Bond Market Indecision After More Vaccine News
Another Monday, another early morning announcement of stagger...
Mon, Nov 16 2020, 10:20 AM
On back to back Monday mornings at 6:45am, both of the frontrunner covid vaccine trials have announced surprisingly strong late stage results (Pfizer ...
Fri, Nov 13 2020, 5:15 PM
Treasuries Reluctant to Add to Rally, But MBS Outperform.
It was a ho-hum day for bonds. Movement was minim...
Fri, Nov 13 2020, 10:55 AM
The holiday-shortened bond trading week began poorly with vaccine news causing a massive yield spike. Tuesday didn't do too much to allay fears, but ...
Thu, Nov 12 2020, 4:23 PM
Strong Move in Bonds Helps Balance The Outlook
After a month of almost exclusive weakness, extreme volatilit...
Thu, Nov 12 2020, 9:54 AM
Following Monday's vaccine-inspired bond rout, we're seeing markets take the middle path. Stocks corrected to pre-vaccine levels later that same day ...
Tue, Nov 10 2020, 5:01 PM
Bonds Refuse to Answer The Big Questions Heading Into Mid-Week Holiday
After days like Monday (in which the ...
Tue, Nov 10 2020, 9:33 AM
After days like Monday (in which the bond market lost ground at the fastest pace in months due to the Pfizer vaccine news), we can see one of three th...
Mon, Nov 9 2020, 3:24 PM
Bonds Reeling. Was That Enough Weakness to Find Some Support?
Pfizer's vaccine trial update rocked markets ...
Mon, Nov 9 2020, 9:54 AM
Last week was obviously all about the election. By Friday, our recap said "forget the election" and focused on speculation that the Fed would soon be...
Fri, Nov 6 2020, 5:35 PM
Forget The Election, Here's a Huge New Possibility To Consider
Bonds finally weakened a bit today after 2 ni...
Fri, Nov 6 2020, 10:15 AM
10yr yields already showed their lack of bullish conviction when it came time to challenge a floor at .72%. If anything the message was that addition...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 4:33 PM
No Reaction to Fed, Bonds Waiting on More Election Clarity
Between the weaker momentum throughout October an...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 9:17 AM
Heading into the election, the dominant trading theme was "sideways to slightly weaker" for both stocks and bonds. Now, before you point to the fact ...
Wed, Nov 4 2020, 3:52 PM
Big Rally on Election Revelations
Fairly early in the domestic session, markets rapidly came to the realizat...
Wed, Nov 4 2020, 9:15 AM
Before last night, polls, betting odds, talking heads, prediction experts, and your Aunt Mabel all agreed Biden would be the next president. Financia...
Tue, Nov 3 2020, 3:43 PM
10yr Yields at 0.96% a Best-Case Starting Point For a Bad Reaction in Bonds
The election (referring both to ...
Tue, Nov 3 2020, 9:14 AM
Here we are at last on the final trading day before the bond market receives what could be its biggest of actionable information since the initial sur...
Mon, Nov 2 2020, 3:18 PM
MBS Struggle to Hold Gains, But Rates Aren't Scared Yet
Bonds were mixed today with both MBS and Treasuries...
Mon, Nov 2 2020, 9:12 AM
There were already roughly 400k 10yr Treasury futures contracts traded by 8am today. A typical overnight session runs in the 100-300k range. Volume ...
Fri, Oct 30 2020, 4:09 PM
Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's Election
Big losses in both stocks and bonds today as tra...
Fri, Oct 30 2020, 10:52 AM
The topic of month-end trading comes up frequently over the years. Reason being: we often see market momentum on the last few days of any given month...
Thu, Oct 29 2020, 4:50 PM
Technicals And Fundamentals Join Forces to Deliver Warning For Rates
Whether we're talking about the week as...
Thu, Oct 29 2020, 11:17 AM
Let's do the simply-worded conclusion right up front. For fans of low rates, the Fed's inclusion of 1.5 MBS (30yr) is a good thing, but not some ne...
Wed, Oct 28 2020, 5:09 PM
Bonds Struggle to Hold Gains Despite Stock Rout
As of the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were higher on the day....
Wed, Oct 28 2020, 10:03 AM
October has been unpleasant for the bond market--Treasuries specifically. That's not to say it's been a walk in the park for MBS. They too have lost...
Tue, Oct 27 2020, 4:33 PM
Bonds Looking Better This Week, But Risks Remain
Today's release of FHFA's home price index showed a sharp a...
Tue, Oct 27 2020, 11:33 AM
We'll start off with more of an industry-specific curiosity (as opposed to diving right into markets/rates). Then again, the conforming loan limit is...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 3:36 PM
Rising Rate Trend Changing Course or Just Leveling Off?
After a modest day of gains on Friday, bonds covered...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 10:36 AM
We knew that bonds would be forced to accept more volatility in October, if for no other reason than September's progressive and ultimately complete a...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 3:49 PM
Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries?
Bonds are in the throws of an extended ...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 10:11 AM
In the bond market, as a whole, we've never seen yields any lower for any longer than they've been in 2020. The runners up aren't even close. Even...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 3:53 PM
Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain
Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative ...
MBS Market Alerts
