Wed, Mar 6 2024, 11:35 AM
Here in Southern California, there are plenty of swimming pools and tennis courts, but none of them belong to me. Under the header of, “Why didn’t I t...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 9:18 AM
It's understandably nerve-wracking for fans of low rates to see a congressional testimony from Fed Chair Powell on the calendar. Granted, some of tho...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 8:59 AM
Whether prompted by a tiny improvement in mortgage rates or the first stirrings of a spring market, mortgage activity reversed course last week. The M...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 4:32 PM
Gains Before and After Data
Today's big to-do was the ISM Non-Manufacturing data at 10am ET. Of the two ISM...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market. Bonds can move for several reasons at any given moment, but a key consideration these days ...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 10:55 AM
Conference season is cranking back up, and some believe that apple orchards are in danger of extinction give the amount of “applewood smoked” bacon in...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 10:39 AM
Yields spiked in the first half of February as the jobs report and CPI both suggested a stubbornly resilient economy and inflation outlook. That was ...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates were at the best levels in 2 weeks as of last Friday and today's offerings are only modestly higher. One counterpoint is that it didn'...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 4:27 PM
Sleepy Start to What May Be an Exciting Week
Every now and then the bond market makes a case for a 4 day wor...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 11:09 AM
We've been looking forward to the first week of March since the Feb 13th CPI report because this is the first time since then that we'll see a top tie...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 10:58 AM
Last year I mentioned that today is the only day that is also a command. A few folks corrected me, saying that “March first” fits that bill as well. L...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 4:56 PM
Bonds Leading Off in a Friendly Direction
With ISM Manufacturing, Friday brought the only other reasonably i...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 3:51 PM
Sometimes you'll see coverage of economic data that conforms to certain template with a predictable details and word counts. Rarely, the word count w...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 3:24 PM
The average lender was offering slightly higher rates this morning when compared to yesterdays latest levels, but things began to change after 10am ET...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 12:46 PM
We haven't talked enough about ISM Manufacturing this week because Thursday's PCE data was the first report in more than 2 weeks that mattered. Thus,...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 11:09 AM
As I watch it snow here in the Sierra, hey, if you’re going to watch one video this week, watch this 15-second classic (with sound) on how our banking...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 4:50 PM
It Took a Village (Of Econ Data)
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied after the 8:30am econ d...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 4:05 PM
In the bigger picture, mortgage rates would still be best described as "trending gently higher," but in the shorter term, today was a victory. The av...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 11:33 AM
Welcome to February 29; The 366th day is added to keep the calendar year synchronized with the astronomical year or seasonal year. What do astronomers...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 10:44 AM
Today's most hotly anticipated data was undoubtedly PCE inflation for January. In fact, this is the report that became the subject of our focus and a...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 4:05 PM
Small Scale Volatility But Very Sideways Overall
There were a few instances of volatility in the bond market...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 3:50 PM
Despite the release of economic data that sounds like it should matter to markets (mainly "GDP"), the bonds that drive interest rates had a remarkably...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 12:05 PM
The bond market may be data dependent (it totally is!), but not just any data will do. You'd be forgiven for thinking that things like "GDP" and "Cor...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 11:09 AM
At the TMBA’s Secondary Conference in Houston a topic is obviously interest rates and the economy… And the fact that the nation’s interest payment exp...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 8:37 AM
The week ending February 23 produced the third consecutive period of declining mortgage activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Mark...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 4:03 PM
Weird Reaction to Durable Goods, But Generally Slow and Sideways
The economic data drought finally began to ...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 2:50 PM
One of the downsides of rates being very close to the highest levels in months is that it doesn't take much of nudge to hit new highs. That was ALMOS...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 12:28 PM
With apologies to those who follow closely enough to know how frequently this notion has been recycled recently, bonds continue grinding sideways as i...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 11:55 AM
Despite the upward path of interest rates, both the CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices and the Housing Price Index (HPI) published by the Federal Housing ...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 11:01 AM
A correction to yesterday’s Commentary regarding the next holiday (Memorial Day) being two months out. Several emailed that Memorial Day is actually t...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher to begin the new week, but they remained just under the highest recent levels seen last Thursday. Many lenders...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 3:55 PM
Auctions Caused Modest Weakness, But Mostly in Advance
As the bond market looks at the 5yr Treasury auction ...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 3:24 PM
With the market for existing homes struggling amid a lack of inventory, New Home Sales continue doing the heavy lifting for the housing market. Rathe...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 11:05 AM
Saturday was George Thorogood’s 74th birthday, and fans know that he wrote the classic tale of rent collection, land ladies, and payment avoidance. Ti...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 10:07 AM
While it may not prove to be the most relevant market mover of the week, the upcoming Treasury auction cycle is at least in the running. This particu...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 3:31 PM
One of the upsides of these weeks with boring, sideways movement in the rate market is that it doesn't take much of an improvement to undo several day...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 3:28 PM
Strong Friday For Bonds Helps Keep Sideways Vibes Intact
Friday ended up being surprisingly strong for the b...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 11:44 AM
It was destined to be a mostly boring, sideways week (to whatever extent "destiny" actually has any predictive value). Perhaps it's more fair to say ...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 10:52 AM
“Alexa, where’s my damn package?” (Page down 3-4 times to the video.) Life is full of surprises, good and bad. Rates aren’t a surprise… The U.S. Feder...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 3:23 PM
The Drift Continues
Bonds only had a small reaction to the stronger Jobless Claims data, despite the referen...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 2:44 PM
Mortgage rates continue making nearly microscopic movements in day-over-day terms, but they continue adding up. Today's increase over yesterday was n...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 1:23 PM
Prospects for the spring market look a bit brighter as January numbers show an increase in both the pace of existing home sales and the size of the un...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 12:14 PM
Rates are "data dependent" and the two biggest pieces of economic data are CPI and the big jobs report. Neither are on today's calendar, but there wa...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 10:49 AM
Did someone say, “National Margarita Day”? (Splendid timing, especially as vendors and lenders contemplate a rate and volume environment that may not ...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 4:57 PM
Rates Testing Ceilings After Bond Auction and European Weakness
Bonds managed to start the day in modestly s...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 4:20 PM
In the short term, mortgage rates haven't experienced any extreme movement since earlier in the month, but a slow trickle of weakness is starting to a...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 2:36 PM
There’s an old LO joke, telling their client, “When you’re buying a house, be sure to do it with a significant other, and make sure that one of you ha...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 12:29 PM
Bonds had a generally constructive day to start the holiday-shortened week yesterday, with yields rallying in the morning and ultimately holding modes...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 8:43 AM
Higher interest rates continued to depress mortgage applications last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a ...
Tue, Feb 20 2024, 4:27 PM
Slow Start as Markets Wait For Inspiration
Bonds got off to a slow start despite the holiday-shortened week....
