Tue, Aug 11 2020, 4:23 PM
Bond Market Breakout is Here (The Bad One)
For days--and especially since last Friday--we've been increasing...
Tue, Aug 11 2020, 10:12 AM
For days--and especially since last Friday--we've been increasingly worried that the 2-month bond rally was running out of steam and at risk of a reve...
Mon, Aug 10 2020, 4:13 PM
Treasuries Looking Nervous, But MBS Outperform
Treasury yields are attempting to move up and over the techni...
Mon, Aug 10 2020, 9:22 AM
August began with bonds pushing several positive boundaries. 10yr yields had just broken a technical floor at .57//58 and 2.0 UMBS were enjoying a su...
Fri, Aug 7 2020, 3:01 PM
More Defensive After Jobs Report, But Not Necessarily Because of it
The jobs report was hard-pressed to live...
Fri, Aug 7 2020, 8:29 AM
No other piece of scheduled monthly economic data has a better track record of influencing the bond market than nonfarm payrolls. There are stretches...
Thu, Aug 6 2020, 4:49 PM
Bonds Generally Consolidating Ahead of Jobs Report
MBS were higher today, but for the week as a whole, they'...
Thu, Aug 6 2020, 10:07 AM
Yesterday's bond market weakness prompted a conversation about the limits of the current rally. It went a little something like this (<----that's a l...
Wed, Aug 5 2020, 4:07 PM
Is The Rally Meeting Resistance or Just Consolidation?
With modest overnight weakness and a small negative r...
Wed, Aug 5 2020, 9:31 AM
With modest overnight weakness and a small negative reaction to this morning's headlines (ADP and Treasury issuance), bonds may be encountering some m...
Tue, Aug 4 2020, 4:11 PM
Bonds Continue Pushing The Record Pace, But MBS Are Lagging
Yesterday we asked what would come next for bond...
Tue, Aug 4 2020, 9:49 AM
While there's no way to know how the day will wrap up for the MBS market, we know how it's starting out. We also know how 4 of the past 5 days have s...
Mon, Aug 3 2020, 4:31 PM
Bonds Defend New Territory
Now that bonds have broken through previous resistance levels (.58 in 10yr yields...
Mon, Aug 3 2020, 9:23 AM
Now that bonds have broken through previous resistance levels (.58 in 10yr yields and 103.00 in 2.0 UMBS), what comes next? Rather than look for fast-...
Fri, Jul 31 2020, 5:04 PM
All-Time Levels All Around. Here's How To Play It
Another day, another opportunity for MBS prices to hit re...
Fri, Jul 31 2020, 8:50 AM
There's no doubt you'll see excellent mortgage rates when this morning's rate sheets come out. Many lenders will be at or below their previous all-ti...
Thu, Jul 30 2020, 3:55 PM
Bonds Break The Range, But Mortgage Rates Are Dragging Their Feet
The simple version of the story: mortgage ...
Thu, Jul 30 2020, 8:21 AM
Cases are made all the time. Some of them are surefire victories from the start. Others lack the evidence required for a compelling conclusion. The...
Wed, Jul 29 2020, 4:34 PM
Bonds Break Key Levels After Fed
Both MBS and Treasuries were right on the edge of their recent ranges headi...
Wed, Jul 29 2020, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jul 29 2020, 9:13 AM
Pound for pound, nothing has more power to move the bond market than Federal Reserve Announcements. We'll get one at 2pm today, but it remains to be...
Tue, Jul 28 2020, 3:42 PM
Nice Recovery But Resistance Remains
Rates were under pressure overnight with 10yr hitting the highest yield...
Tue, Jul 28 2020, 8:57 AM
Today is the second day of this week's prologue. We're getting a sense of the market's underlying biases, but we haven't yet arrived at the bigger-ti...
Mon, Jul 27 2020, 3:26 PM
Bonds Beginning The Week on The Defensive
After weeks of gradual strength in bonds, this week begins with ra...
Mon, Jul 27 2020, 8:46 AM
As far as weeks with plenty of potentially relevant scheduled events on tap, this one does not disappoint. The only question is how much markets will...
Fri, Jul 24 2020, 4:01 PM
Why The Range Risk in Treasuries Matters to Mortgages
We've been following .58% in 10yr yields for months as...
Fri, Jul 24 2020, 9:22 AM
There was a time in the very recent past when we could almost completely ignore the implications of 10yr Treasury yield movement on mortgage rates. W...
Thu, Jul 23 2020, 4:15 PM
Rates Having a Tough Time Breaking Lower, At Least For Now
We've been following .58% in 10yr yields for mont...
Thu, Jul 23 2020, 9:07 AM
We've talked a fair amount about the balance between fundamental and technical analysis recently. These are the two main schools of thought when ...
Wed, Jul 22 2020, 3:27 PM
A Small Risk in a Pile of Good News
For rates and the bond market, the news has been almost exclusively good...
Wed, Jul 22 2020, 9:14 AM
Remember the trade war? That was the thing that singlehandedly caused massive movement in the bond market in 2019. Trade tensions have been mountin...
Tue, Jul 21 2020, 4:03 PM
"Flat" is an Understatement
Recent trading activity lies in stark contrast to the drama seen earlier in 2020...
Tue, Jul 21 2020, 9:00 AM
Recent trading activity lies in stark contrast to the drama seen earlier in 2020. Even at the beginning of June, bonds still had an interesting (and ...
Mon, Jul 20 2020, 2:57 PM
How Low Can Rates Eventually Go?
Until further notice, we can expect to see the bond market drift in a fairl...
Mon, Jul 20 2020, 9:40 AM
The bond market begins yet another week with rates in a holding pattern at historic lows. With coronavirus being the primary motivation for rates, it...
Fri, Jul 17 2020, 3:06 PM
Very Uneventful Week in The Bigger Picture
Heading into this week, we were hoping to see some consensus betw...
Fri, Jul 17 2020, 8:59 AM
One of the market themes that has been most noticeable and most reliable post-covid is that of the "stock lever"--our in-house term for the phenomenon...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 3:31 PM
The Downside of Ultra Low Rates
Actions and reactions are as true in the bond market as in the natural world...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 8:31 AM
It used to be that rate watchers and mortgage originators could simply tune in to the economic data on any given day and expect a fairly logical and...
Wed, Jul 15 2020, 3:27 PM
Stocks and Bonds Confirm Hyperfocus on Covid Outlook
Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused...
Wed, Jul 15 2020, 8:58 AM
Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused such a huge paradigm shift that it's easy to lose sight of its importance as a day-to-day mark...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 3:36 PM
Bonds Surprisingly Resilient After Last Week's Scare
After last week's somewhat scary move higher in rates, ...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 8:49 AM
Once again, stocks and bonds were largely flat in the overnight session and domestic trading begins with both sides of the market close to yesterday's...
Mon, Jul 13 2020, 3:38 PM
Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution
Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought...
Mon, Jul 13 2020, 8:51 AM
Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis. Fundamental analysis focuses on all of thi...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 4:28 PM
Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary)
Just as bonds were settling into a nice ne...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 9:04 AM
Trend channels in financial markets are some of the most basic forms of analysis. They consist of lines drawn along the highs and lows of a charted s...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 4:03 PM
Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend
We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 9:18 AM
We've talked a lot about the massive rift that opened up between mortgage rates and MBS yields as the pandemic hit markets several months ago. MBS yi...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 4:07 PM
Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game
Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain s...
MBS Market Alerts
