Tue, Nov 3 2020, 9:14 AM
Here we are at last on the final trading day before the bond market receives what could be its biggest of actionable information since the initial sur...
Mon, Nov 2 2020, 3:18 PM
MBS Struggle to Hold Gains, But Rates Aren't Scared Yet
Bonds were mixed today with both MBS and Treasuries...
Mon, Nov 2 2020, 9:12 AM
There were already roughly 400k 10yr Treasury futures contracts traded by 8am today. A typical overnight session runs in the 100-300k range. Volume ...
Fri, Oct 30 2020, 4:09 PM
Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's Election
Big losses in both stocks and bonds today as tra...
Fri, Oct 30 2020, 10:52 AM
The topic of month-end trading comes up frequently over the years. Reason being: we often see market momentum on the last few days of any given month...
Thu, Oct 29 2020, 4:50 PM
Technicals And Fundamentals Join Forces to Deliver Warning For Rates
Whether we're talking about the week as...
Thu, Oct 29 2020, 11:17 AM
Let's do the simply-worded conclusion right up front. For fans of low rates, the Fed's inclusion of 1.5 MBS (30yr) is a good thing, but not some ne...
Wed, Oct 28 2020, 5:09 PM
Bonds Struggle to Hold Gains Despite Stock Rout
As of the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were higher on the day....
Wed, Oct 28 2020, 10:03 AM
October has been unpleasant for the bond market--Treasuries specifically. That's not to say it's been a walk in the park for MBS. They too have lost...
Tue, Oct 27 2020, 4:33 PM
Bonds Looking Better This Week, But Risks Remain
Today's release of FHFA's home price index showed a sharp a...
Tue, Oct 27 2020, 11:33 AM
We'll start off with more of an industry-specific curiosity (as opposed to diving right into markets/rates). Then again, the conforming loan limit is...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 3:36 PM
Rising Rate Trend Changing Course or Just Leveling Off?
After a modest day of gains on Friday, bonds covered...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 10:36 AM
We knew that bonds would be forced to accept more volatility in October, if for no other reason than September's progressive and ultimately complete a...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 3:49 PM
Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries?
Bonds are in the throws of an extended ...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 10:11 AM
In the bond market, as a whole, we've never seen yields any lower for any longer than they've been in 2020. The runners up aren't even close. Even...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 3:53 PM
Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain
Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative ...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 10:16 AM
There are several ways to look at "the range" when it comes to post-covid trading levels in the bond market. There are several ways to look at "the b...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 4:25 PM
Bonds Find Footing Early, But Aren't Able to Go Green
It's safe to say the bond market found its footing tod...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 9:40 AM
There have been reasons to fear a momentum shift in bonds for several weeks now. Here's how we discussed it at the beginning of October:
"It's neve...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 4:32 PM
Bearish Bond Trend Continues
Looking back at MBS or Treasuries over the past few weeks reveals a clear termi...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 9:25 AM
It was fun and easy to get caught up in (or spoiled by) the recent ultra-narrow range in the bond market. The boundaries of that range were .62 and ....
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 3:42 PM
Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off
Bonds started out weaker and looked lik...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 11:24 AM
Pressure is mounting for the bond market. After a period of intensely calm, narrow trading throughout September, 10yr yields quickly moved to challen...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 4:04 PM
MBS Defy Odds as Bond Bulls Fail For 3rd Straight Day
After failing back to back attempts to retake the rece...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 11:42 AM
Admittedly, this is less of a "day ahead" at this point and more of a "day in progress." Nonetheless, we can discuss the lay of the land as we gear u...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 3:54 PM
Bonds Come Up Short After Another Attempt to Re-Enter Previous Range
For a second straight day, 10yr yields ...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 9:59 AM
From 2011 through the middle of 2016, the European economy, monetary system, and policy landscape had an extreme amount of influence over volatility a...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 4:35 PM
Bonds Start Strong But MBS Struggle to Keep Up
Last week was clearly a defensive shift for the bond market. ...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 10:52 AM
Inflation is one of the basic building blocks of bond yields. A bond is a loan... an agreement for you to give me a lump sum of cash today and for me...
Tue, Oct 13 2020, 4:36 PM
Bonds Start Strong After Playing Defense Last Week
Last week was clearly a defensive shift for the bond mark...
Tue, Oct 13 2020, 10:29 AM
The new week begins with "the roll" for 30yr UMBS--our in-house term to refer to the monthly settlement process for MBS coupons, and a perennial sou...
Fri, Oct 9 2020, 4:59 PM
Weakness and Consolidation as Bonds Wait For Stimulus
This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yie...
Fri, Oct 9 2020, 10:19 AM
At one point in time (and perhaps to this day) if you'd asked the average bond market watcher to name the top 3 months for volatility, October would d...
Thu, Oct 8 2020, 3:51 PM
Too Soon To Hope For Support?
This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yields in the bond market. ...
Thu, Oct 8 2020, 10:17 AM
This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yields in the bond market. Trump's comments on stimulus have been a key source of volatility althou...
Wed, Oct 7 2020, 4:39 PM
Dashed Hopes For Bond Bounce After Trump Tweet Reversal
Tuesday was going poorly for bonds until a Trump Twe...
Wed, Oct 7 2020, 9:51 AM
Tuesday was going poorly for bonds until Trump Tweets (instructing his representatives to stop negotiating a stimulus bill) sent markets into a tailsp...
Tue, Oct 6 2020, 4:12 PM
Late Day Reversal For Bonds After Trump Stimulus Threat
Today wasn't going too terribly poorly for the bond ...
Tue, Oct 6 2020, 11:25 AM
For too long and, to this day, far too frequently in many circles, market movement is credited to or blamed on oversimplified "cause and effect" rel...
Mon, Oct 5 2020, 3:37 PM
Bonds on The Defensive as Range Breakout Looks More Serious
Last week saw yields break higher after being sq...
Mon, Oct 5 2020, 9:08 AM
The incredible range trade of Q3, 2020 is well established and, by now, hopefully well understood. The boundaries are clear in terms of 10yr yields w...
Fri, Oct 2 2020, 4:31 PM
MBS Outperformance is Actually Helping Rates
Overnight news of Trump's covid diagnosis caused some volatilit...
Fri, Oct 2 2020, 10:50 AM
By now, most everyone has heard that the president was diagnosed with covid overnight. At face value, this seems like it should be very big news for...
Thu, Oct 1 2020, 3:52 PM
Bonds Fight To Remain in Ultra-Narrow Range
Yesterday presented a short-term, small scale threat to the bond...
Thu, Oct 1 2020, 9:24 AM
Before we talk about anything remotely negative for the bond market, let's lay out some context. The technical ceiling in 10yr yields that we'll be e...
Wed, Sep 30 2020, 4:35 PM
Bonds Finally Make a Move. How Serious Is It?
After more than 2 months of a narrow sideways range and more t...
Wed, Sep 30 2020, 9:45 AM
There has been an uncanny amount of sideways momentum in the bond market for months. The range has grown even narrower over the past 3 weeks with ...
Tue, Sep 29 2020, 4:00 PM
Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining
MBS continue to outperform due to favorable s...
Tue, Sep 29 2020, 9:37 AM
The absence of volatility in the bond market cannot be overemphasized at the moment, or during most any moment since mid August. Rather than drift to...
Mon, Sep 28 2020, 3:49 PM
Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?
The end of the week brings the first Friday of the month (of October!...
MBS Market Alerts
