Mon, Dec 6 2021, 11:41 AM
Although MBS have been underperforming, the broader trend in the bond market remains in good shape--especially in light of current headwinds. The mos...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 4:19 PM
Several developments are converging on the global economy and financial markets at the moment. Each brings its own causes for concern. Together, they ...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Reversal in Bonds After Stocks Sell Off
Bonds paradoxically sold off after this morning's weaker jobs nu...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 10:55 AM
It's NFP day for the bond market although we have to ask ourselves what that really means in a world where the Fed has explicitly stated that it's see...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 4:18 PM
MBS Give Up Yesterday's Gains Despite Decent Start
MBS have a bit of a problem. In the past week, they've g...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 3:43 PM
Mortgage rates started weaker and ended stronger yesterday. Unfortunately , today delivered exactly the opposite scenario. The underlying bond market ...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates were much lower at the start of business yesterday , but began rising in the afternoon as the bond market lost ground. That same moment...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 4:32 PM
Weaker Start, Stronger Finish
Volatility has been elevated for the bond market in the past 4 weeks and espec...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 11:09 AM
It's an interesting, confusing, and tumultuous moment for financial markets as traders digest an unprecedented confluence of relevant events. Two eve...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Swings as Covid Squares Off Against The Fed
It was omicron vs the Fed today and bonds had a front row se...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates ended the previous week with a hopeful outlook due to the omicron variant. In general, rates benefit from news and events that cause in...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 10:25 AM
Today's reaction function for the market is very simple and very obvious. Shortly after midnight, Moderna's CEO made some discouraging comments about...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 3:27 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Shaky Start
This morning we found ourselves in the uncomfortable position of watchi...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 11:12 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week retaining a majority of last Friday's mega rally. The omicron-inspired gains were big enough that 10yr yields ar...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 2:51 PM
Just when it looked like the current week would fizzle out on a negative note for rates, our least favorite market mover is back in the news. B.1.1.52...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 2:50 PM
Covid Variant Causes Massive Market Reaction
This morning it was B.1.1.529. By the afternoon, the WHO label...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 11:34 AM
Remember July? Covid was a fading memory and the light was clearly visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Then came Delta. It served as a painf...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 4:18 PM
Fed Minutes Largely As Expected; No Major Drama For Bonds
After weathering the storm of this morning's data,...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 11:38 AM
One of the side effects of holiday-shortened weeks is a condensed data schedule. That's especially true of Thanksgiving week as it essentially remove...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today as the bond market remained in a defensive stance for a variety of reasons. The week's scheduled Treasury auctio...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 4:41 PM
Strong Auction No Match For Bond Bears
Today's 7yr auction was the biggest potential source of volatility fo...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 10:46 AM
As of last Friday, the bond market looked keen on rejecting any attempt to revisit the recent ceiling in late October (10yr yields were just over 1.70...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week on a bad note with the average lender full erasing the improvement seen on Friday. This leaves many lenders at their...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 4:41 PM
Abrupt Sell-Off To Begin Holiday-Shortened Week
The day began with confirmation that Fed Chair Powell would ...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 11:33 AM
There was some speculation that Biden would nominate Fed governor Lael Brainard to take over as Fed chair. It an outside possibility, but one that le...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 3:13 PM
Strong Showing Overall Despite Late Day Weakness
As noted in this morning's commentary, the key source of in...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 3:00 PM
Winter is coming, both literally and figuratively. While the fallout remains to be seen, financial markets are already reacting. In the literal sense,...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 11:43 AM
As yesterday's AM commentary tacitly suggested, "winter is coming" in terms of the connection between colder temps and higher covid case counts. Euro...
Thu, Nov 18 2021, 3:31 PM
Bonds Add to Case For Stability
Bonds put in a solid enough performance on Thursday with 10yr yields almost ...
Thu, Nov 18 2021, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates were modestly lower today as the bond market continued pushing back against somewhat abrupt weakness. The average media coverage says s...
Thu, Nov 18 2021, 10:36 AM
The overnight session was mostly uneventful for the bond market, but trading levels were slightly weaker in the first hour of trading. Since then, bu...
Wed, Nov 17 2021, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates finally caught a break after spending the past six business days moving higher at a faster-than-normal pace. During that time, the aver...
Wed, Nov 17 2021, 4:40 PM
Bonds Improve, Led by Treasuries as Corporate Pipeline Clears
One of the key sources of motivation for risin...
Wed, Nov 17 2021, 9:40 AM
Last Wednesday brought the sharpest sell-off to the bond market in over a month. Bonds continued to weaken on the next two relevant trading days (Mon...
Tue, Nov 16 2021, 4:15 PM
MBS Outperform on Curve Steepening and Corporate Issuance
The yield curve has been almost exclusively in "fl...
Tue, Nov 16 2021, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher again today, despite a fairly flat performance in the bond market. Specifically, the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) ...
Tue, Nov 16 2021, 9:52 AM
This morning's Retail Sales report--arguably the week's headliner--came in stronger than expected, and significantly stronger than the previous month....
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 3:44 PM
After hitting the lowest levels in over a month last Tuesday, mortgage rates have been moving higher fairly quickly each day since then. Most of the d...
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 3:44 PM
Defensive Until Further Notice
Bonds sold off early and often to begin the new week. Selling pressure rampe...
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 9:46 AM
Bonds were unchanged on Friday after selling off aggressively on Thursday. At first glance, that could be taken as confirmation of the weakness, but ...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 4:48 PM
Lots of Apparent Drama For an "Unchanged" Day
The morning's headline proclaimed that today was essentially a...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 4:26 PM
Several sources for mortgage rate data are doing consumers a major disservice this week. At least two of them are claiming that the average top tier 3...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 10:56 AM
The typical federal holiday plays nicely with the bond market. Most involve a full closure on a Monday or Friday and are often preceded by a "half da...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates managed to drift down to their best levels in more than a month by yesterday, but the good times ended today... abruptly ! Interest rat...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 3:32 PM
Big Nasty Sell-Off Sends a Message About The Range
Steady selling in the morning followed by heavy selling a...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 9:42 AM
In econo-jargon, the word "real" typically refers to "inflation-adjusted." So when we say that "real 10yr yields" hit record lows this morning, it co...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower for the 5th straight day, bringing them to the best levels since late September or early October, depending on t...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 3:36 PM
Weaker Treasury Auction, But Only After a Strong Morning
In and of itself, the10yr Treasury auction (arguabl...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 8:58 AM
Today's MBS charts initially made it seem like prices had fallen versus yesterday's latest levels. In a way, they did, but the right side of the char...
Mon, Nov 8 2021, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates are directly based on trading levels in the bond market, so it's almost a given that rates will move in the same direction as bond yiel...
