Mon, Sep 20 2021, 4:18 PM
Surprise Snowball Rally as Stocks Swoon Over Global Risks
When it comes to stocks vs bonds, pundits generall...
Mon, Sep 20 2021, 9:53 AM
Evergrande is a Chinese real estate company that has been circling the drain for months. During that time, press reports increasingly suggest that Ev...
Fri, Sep 17 2021, 4:33 PM
Traders Move to Sidelines Ahead of Fed Announcement
September's big Fed announcement doesn't hit until next ...
Fri, Sep 17 2021, 10:07 AM
The headline is a bit dramatic, but not untrue. 10yr yields were as high as 1.351 yesterday--just a moderate day of weakness away from the 2-month hi...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today, bringing the average lender to the worst levels since last Thursday. There are a few exceptions to that due t...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 3:54 PM
Uneventful Afternoon After Strong Data Sends Yields Higher
Today's key development was the duo of much stron...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 9:08 AM
Bonds are starting the day on the back foot as Retail Sales rose 0.7% despite a median forecast of -0.8. The Philly Fed numbers also surged past 18.8...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 4:28 PM
Mortgage rates began the day with promise. Actually, it was the underlying bond market (which largely dictates mortgage rates) was sending promising s...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 4:08 PM
Sideways Vibes Won't Give Up Just Yet
Bonds made a move yesterday with yields breaking below the lower bound...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 9:57 AM
Yesterday's most notable accomplishment for the bond market was the breakout of the prevailing consolidation range (aka "pennant," to use a technical ...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 7:04 PM
arlier this year, the FHFA and Treasury amended Treasury's preferred stock repurchase agreements (PSPAs) to put limits on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 4:13 PM
Bonds Rally After CPI Gives Fed The Week Off
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big tick...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 3:17 PM
Mortgage rates started the day modestly lower , but many lenders ended up offering mid-day improvements in response to market conditions. When it come...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 9:34 AM
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big ticket economic reports left before next week's Fed announcement, and perhaps the only one ...
Mon, Sep 13 2021, 4:20 PM
Quiet Summertime Monday Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
Treasuries have experienced more of the volatility in...
Mon, Sep 13 2021, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates were fairly flat to start the new week. This leaves the average lender in the high 2% range for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenar...
Mon, Sep 13 2021, 10:06 AM
There is a smattering of data in the week ahead with Tuesday's CPI and Thursday's Retail Sales reports being the headliners. Data is merely a "potent...
Fri, Sep 10 2021, 7:51 PM
Rates are dictated by the bond market and bonds are flashing a warning sign about volatility on the horizon. In other words, rates look like they're r...
Fri, Sep 10 2021, 4:00 PM
Bond Weakness Reinforces The Consolidation Pattern
Bonds were weaker overnight and the selling trend continu...
Fri, Sep 10 2021, 9:26 AM
Bonds are starting the day in moderately weaker territory. In so doing, 10yr yields are rejecting the opportunity to break below the 1.30% technical ...
Thu, Sep 9 2021, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today, with many lenders making it back to the levels seen after last Friday's jobs report. In week-over-week terms, ...
Thu, Sep 9 2021, 3:38 PM
Strong Auction Trifecta Helps Bonds Hold The Range
The day began with a relatively bond-friendly European Ce...
Thu, Sep 9 2021, 10:50 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) was widely expected to do "something" to tighten up its PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) in today's policy a...
Wed, Sep 8 2021, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today after starting the week by jumping noticeably higher yesterday. Today's gains came courtesy of global growth concerns...
Wed, Sep 8 2021, 3:44 PM
10yr Auction Easily Helps Rates Hold The Range. What Next?
Today's 10yr auction was exceptionally strong. ...
Wed, Sep 8 2021, 9:50 AM
Yesterday marked the weakest weekly opener in several months as bonds built on negative momentum following last week's jobs report and positioned them...
Tue, Sep 7 2021, 3:50 PM
3 Times in a Row: Auction Week Bringing The Weakness
Bonds have been consolidating in roughly a 17bp range c...
Tue, Sep 7 2021, 2:43 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly highe r to begin the holiday-shortened week. With Labor day being a bank holiday, mortgage lenders were closed yesterday...
Tue, Sep 7 2021, 9:18 AM
After being closed for Labor Day yesterday, the bond market is noticeably weaker to start the new week. In the overnight session alone, yields rose e...
Fri, Sep 3 2021, 4:26 PM
MBS Outperformance is Part of the Answer to Today's Riddle
When does an obviously weak jobs report result in...
Fri, Sep 3 2021, 11:23 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 235k versus a median forecast of 728k. Poll a hundred market strategists about the likely market impact and 99 of them wo...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 4:05 PM
Particularly Calm Before a Particularly Important NFP
The widest trading range of the week has been 4.5bps (...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 2:51 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on bonds. Bonds take cues from economic data (among other things). And tomorrow's big jobs report is the most consi...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 10:10 AM
Ah, the Thursday before a Friday jobs report--much like a Forest Gump box of chocolates. They're typically fairly boring with movement that tends to ...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 5:07 PM
Much like yesterday, mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher , depending on the lender. And once again, the differences in pricing strategies...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 5:06 PM
Bonds Waiting For More Relevant Inspiration
Today's ADP employment data missed the mark by quite a bit. If ...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 11:00 AM
The stated goal of the ADP Employment Report is to predict the final revision of the US government's non-farm payroll number. Assessing its efficacy ...
Tue, Aug 31 2021, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. The differences in pricing strategies stem from the timing of changes...
Tue, Aug 31 2021, 4:21 PM
Weaker Data Offset by European Tapering Fears
Bonds improved after weaker economic data this morning. Trade...
Tue, Aug 31 2021, 12:09 PM
Tuesday morning wasted no time in confirming the relevance of economic data to the current bond market environment. When Chicago PMI came out weaker ...
Mon, Aug 30 2021, 5:35 PM
Jackson Hole Follow Through Helps Bonds Hold The Range
Bonds were at the top of their recent range last Frid...
Mon, Aug 30 2021, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates drifted lower again today, with the average lender getting back down to the lowest levels since the first week of August. In a general ...
Mon, Aug 30 2021, 11:31 AM
Last week's theme was simple: sell bonds until hearing what Fed Chair Powell had to say in his Jackson Hole speech, then buy bonds when Powell simply ...
Fri, Aug 27 2021, 3:23 PM
Powell Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It
Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech has come and gone without caus...
Fri, Aug 27 2021, 10:00 AM
Much has been made of the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium in 2021 and in a general sense throughout the years. On some years, the anticipation has prove...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 3:43 PM
Bonds Leveling Off But Not Out of The Woods
Bonds began the day with a test of the important technical ceili...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 2:36 PM
Mortgage rates stabilized today after moving higher at a moderately quick pace over the past 2 days. To be sure, today's rates are definitely higher t...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 10:51 AM
Bonds are either on the doorstep of critical line in the sand, or they soon will be. These lines are drawn on the technical ceilings at 1.37% and 1.4...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 4:09 PM
Yields Searching For a Pre-Fed Ceiling
Although the week began in forgettable fashion, Tuesday saw yields mo...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 8:06 AM
Although the week began in forgettable fashion, Tuesday saw yields move up at a moderate pace with no overt provocation. Indeed a quick glance at the ...
