Thu, May 19 2022, 5:01 PM
A brutally fast spike to the highest rates in more than a decade comes with some decent consolation prizes. Over the past 2 weeks, it has allowed the...
Thu, May 19 2022, 4:48 PM
How Low Can Stocks Go? (Bonds Want to Know)
Bonds improved overnight and again after this morning's Philly ...
Thu, May 19 2022, 9:26 AM
Remember when the Fed began to abruptly revise its policy tightening pace at the start of the year and both stocks and bonds began to sell off? That'...
Wed, May 18 2022, 4:37 PM
There has been a lot of volatility in the bond market recently. Because bonds drive interest rate changes, that's meant plenty of volatility in the m...
Wed, May 18 2022, 4:27 PM
What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
Bonds began the day in flat to slightly weaker territor...
Wed, May 18 2022, 11:54 AM
One side effect of following the market very closely during times of heightened volatility is that the short term developments on any given day run a ...
Tue, May 17 2022, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today at the fastest pace in 2 weeks. Part of the reason the size of the jump was the fact that rates have done quite wel...
Tue, May 17 2022, 3:56 PM
Another Head Fake Comes and Goes With Help From Data and Powell
As of yesterday, bond yields looked like tha...
Tue, May 17 2022, 11:33 AM
Bonds have had a good run recently--perhaps their best when it comes to arguing for a ceiling to cap the brutal rate spike of 2022. The week began wi...
Mon, May 16 2022, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates are coming off of one of their best weeks in nearly 2 years, which isn't quite as glamorous as it sounds, but still a good accomplish...
Mon, May 16 2022, 4:01 PM
Bonds Hold Decent Gains to Start New Week
After mixed trading overnight, bonds began the day in the US at re...
Mon, May 16 2022, 12:01 PM
Bonds shook off a bit of weakness in Europe to start the new week in slightly stronger territory. Gains have continued into domestic hours, which bri...
Fri, May 13 2022, 6:05 PM
Mortgage rates have moved higher at the fastest pace in decades so far in 2022, but this week proved to be a refreshing exception. To understand why,...
Fri, May 13 2022, 3:47 PM
Weaker Today, But Stronger vs Last Week. Stocks in Control
Blaming stocks for movement in the bond market (a...
Fri, May 13 2022, 11:13 AM
The relationship between stocks and bonds is much more complicated than most people assume. Conventional wisdom holds that stock prices and bond yiel...
Thu, May 12 2022, 4:34 PM
Multiple headlines are citing higher mortgage rates today. Even if you read past those headlines, you'd still be left with the impression that this w...
Thu, May 12 2022, 4:20 PM
Finally Time to Start Entertaining an Actual Shift?
Bonds have made several attempts to consolidate and boun...
Thu, May 12 2022, 11:22 AM
For the first time in months (and longer than that if we factor out the artificial/temporary boost from the Ukraine flight to safety) bond yields are ...
Wed, May 11 2022, 3:54 PM
Bonds Bounce Back Despite Hotter Inflation Data
Feel free to call it a comeback, but don't ask why it happen...
Wed, May 11 2022, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates almost hit a new 2 week low today. That's the first time we've been able to say that since early March when markets were still react...
Wed, May 11 2022, 10:43 AM
Both at the headline and core levels, April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hotter this morning. This was a high-consequence report for bonds, a...
Tue, May 10 2022, 4:13 PM
By the middle of the day today, certain rates at many mortgage lenders were a quarter of a percent lower than they were yesterday morning. A drop of ...
Tue, May 10 2022, 3:57 PM
Another Solid Day, But It's All About Wednesday's CPI
Bonds managed to post a 2nd consecutive day of gains o...
Tue, May 10 2022, 10:00 AM
For the 3rd or 4th time (depending on your standards), yields are attempting to find a ceiling after launching abruptly higher in early March (1.67% t...
Mon, May 9 2022, 3:58 PM
2022 has been the year of volatility for mortgage rates with most of the swings resulting in successive runs to long-term highs. Every now and then...
Mon, May 9 2022, 3:49 PM
Big Bond Rally to Start The New Week
In spite of potential headwinds in the coming days (CPI data and Treasu...
Mon, May 9 2022, 11:31 AM
Depending on when you looked this morning, MBS prices may have been red or green, and the gap between any two quotes was rather large (a quarter of a ...
Fri, May 6 2022, 4:58 PM
It was yet another tough week for the mortgage market with rates rising to their highest levels since 2009, but how high have they actually risen? Th...
Fri, May 6 2022, 4:54 PM
Rates Give Up After Briefly Trying to Hold Yesterday's Ceiling
There really weren't any new reasons for the ...
Fri, May 6 2022, 12:29 PM
The jobs report is traditionally the most important piece of economic data on any given month. It's even had the power to move the bond market as rec...
Thu, May 5 2022, 6:49 PM
Good news continues to be in short supply for mortgage rates. In fact, even the good news has ended up being bad on many recent occasions. Today i...
Thu, May 5 2022, 4:40 PM
Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way?
Today was one of the rare breed where both stock...
Thu, May 5 2022, 1:04 PM
Solid Fed day and solid rally in response yesterday... Now today, it's not just a complete 180°, but a 180° plus more insult to injury as yields surg...
Wed, May 4 2022, 4:47 PM
Today brought the much-anticipated policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. Many people mistakenly believe that the Fed's present day decisions ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 4:30 PM
Fed Finally Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It
Fed days have seen a series of increasingly hawkish adjustments ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 2:01 PM
Indicators Although of overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and employment business have fixed ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 10:09 AM
At the risk of repeating too many words from yesterday's recap, we'll leave it at this: the Fed will hike by 50bps today. It won't be a surprise to t...
Tue, May 3 2022, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2009 yesterday amid the fastest spike since the early 1980s. Today's rates were very similar on avera...
Tue, May 3 2022, 4:03 PM
Fed Day Preview: What Are They Doing and How Much Will Bonds Care?
Given all the bond market volatility seen...
Tue, May 3 2022, 11:23 AM
10yr yields came into the day looking comfortable in the rejection of the 3% ceiling that was briefly tested yesterday and overnight. That occurred a...
Mon, May 2 2022, 4:06 PM
Rocky Start to Fed's Normalization Revelation Week
The Fed has been in full-fledged policy tightening mode i...
Mon, May 2 2022, 3:44 PM
The hits keep coming for mortgage rates in 2022. Not since the early 80s have rates risen as quickly as they have in the past 2 months (or the past 4...
Mon, May 2 2022, 10:05 AM
In addition to bringing the typical big market movers scheduled for the first week of any given month, we'll also get a fairly important Fed announcem...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 4:52 PM
The first few months of 2022 have seen rates rise at the fastest pace since the 1980s as a confluence of known issues collided with unexpected volatil...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 4:46 PM
Insult to Injury But Still Waiting on Next Week's Fed
Mixed messages in the morning's PCE inflation data sen...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 11:59 AM
This morning's much-anticipated core PCE inflation headline came out at 5.2% year-over-year versus a median forecast and previous reading of 5.3%. Gr...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 4:22 PM
Nice Intraday Bounce, But No Implication For Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day losing ground following hott...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 4:14 PM
Last Friday, mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2009 with the average lender quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 5.5%. Things weren't...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 11:40 AM
Yesterday, we surmised that the absence of new rally momentum meant rates weren't yet ready to confirm a major ceiling without digesting a bit more da...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 3:58 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Hit Several Snags
In the bigger picture, the absence of any new rally momentum ...
