Tue, Aug 24 2021, 4:32 PM
Increasingly Defensive Ahead of Jackson Hole
Bonds sold off moderately and steadily all day without any clea...
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 2:36 PM
After a sharp increase to start the year and significant improvements between April and mid July, mortgage rates have been fairly flat for more than a...
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 10:37 AM
MBS and Treasuries do such a good job traveling together that it's especially notable when they diverge. That's doubly true on days like today where ...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates are only adjusted once per day by default. From there, the underlying bond market would need to improve or deteriorate by a certain amo...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 4:40 PM
Treasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform
The most notable development today was the outperformance on the...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 11:36 AM
The Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium has often served as a venue for the Fed Chair to offer a sneak preview of impending policy changes or simply t...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 5:35 PM
Rates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn't to say rates perfectly flat--simply tha...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 4:07 PM
Moderate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons
Bonds lost some ground today with 10yr yields up roughly 2bps headi...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 10:33 AM
It's a good time to revisit the primer on illiquidity unless the term is 2nd nature for you (here it is). Illiquidity is definitely a factor today as ...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 4:31 PM
Bonds Finally Have a Boring Day
10yr yields traded in a range of less than 3bps during the domestic session ...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly lower today as the bond market improved for the 2nd straight day. When bonds prices move higher, bond yields (or rates) m...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 11:23 AM
In late July, bonds rode a wave of momentum toward lower yields with many traders targeting the 1.25% zone in 10yr Treasuries. That floor was broken o...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 4:31 PM
Bonds Sell Rumor, Buy New on Inconsequential Fed Minutes
A lot has happened in the past 3 months--especially...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates haven't been skyrocketing, by any means, but they have been moving up in fits and starts over the past 2 weeks. Today was just another ...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 10:28 AM
The Fed has increasingly been discussing its tapering strategy. They haven't been shy about saying so. In fact, at least 5 members have vocally supp...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 3:51 PM
What's Up With MBS Underperformance Today?
As long as we're not dealing with big, obvious, unique market rea...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates experienced an uptick in volatility last week as the broader bond market was hit with a big dose of new supply. In other words, between...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 10:06 AM
The Retail Sales report is generally considered to be in the upper echelon of economic reports when it comes to bond market impact. As such, it's som...
Mon, Aug 16 2021, 4:46 PM
Drifty Day, Treasuries Hold Weekly Gains, MBS Underperform.
With a strong move last Friday, the bond market ...
Mon, Aug 16 2021, 10:55 AM
Just when you thought rates were bouncing higher after hitting 6 month lows, the new week begins with bonds re-staking a claim to the recent, strong...
Fri, Aug 13 2021, 4:29 PM
Unexpected Snowball Rally After Consumer Sentiment Data
Snowball moves in markets, by their nature, tend to ...
Fri, Aug 13 2021, 10:30 AM
The current week fills a corrective role in the bigger picture, helping to officially mark the end of 4 straight months of accelerating improvement (w...
Thu, Aug 12 2021, 5:05 PM
Less Volatility For Bonds (For Now)
As the week winds down, a potentially scary shift into a steeper rising ...
Thu, Aug 12 2021, 10:03 AM
Yesterday marked "the roll" for 30yr fixed UMBS (what's this?), but that's not all that was rolling. The proverbial "good times" began--well, you kno...
Wed, Aug 11 2021, 6:51 PM
By now, it's no mystery that mortgage rates are significantly higher than they were last week. The bigger mystery had to do with what comes next. In s...
Wed, Aug 11 2021, 5:32 PM
Great Bounce After Auction. What Now?
We were hoping--perhaps even expecting (to some extent)--to see the r...
Wed, Aug 11 2021, 11:30 AM
Bonds have recently been on a rather sharp selling spree leading up to and away from last Friday's jobs report. After that it was the following Wedne...
Tue, Aug 10 2021, 3:28 PM
Corporate Bonds Making Life Tough This Week
As feared and expected, the combination of Treasury auctions and...
Tue, Aug 10 2021, 2:24 PM
After hitting 6-month lows early last week, mortgage rates bounced and have been moving higher ever since. The increases were moderate at first, but t...
Tue, Aug 10 2021, 12:00 PM
Bonds are still in the process of trying to find a ceiling after embarking on a decisive uptrend that began in the middle of last week and accelerated...
Mon, Aug 9 2021, 3:28 PM
Bonds Turn Red Early, But Outright Losses Were Minimal
The week began with refreshing stability and modest g...
Mon, Aug 9 2021, 10:33 AM
If bonds needed an excuse to move up and out of their lowest range since February, last week's jobs report provided enough of an opportunity for selle...
Fri, Aug 6 2021, 3:56 PM
Bigger Picture Bounce Becomes Bigger Risk, But Not The only Risk
Friday's strong jobs report certainly deser...
Fri, Aug 6 2021, 11:15 AM
NFP printed at 943k vs a median forecast of 870k. The previous month was revised up by 88k as well. Unemployment ticked down to 5.4% vs a 5.7% forec...
Thu, Aug 5 2021, 4:28 PM
Bonds Definitely Playing Defense Ahead of NFP
Friday's nonfarm payrolls data (NFP) will be more important th...
Thu, Aug 5 2021, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates moved up from 6-month lows yesterday and that trend continued today. This time around, we didn't have any obvious culprits on the econo...
Thu, Aug 5 2021, 10:02 AM
Bonds have been increasingly willing to react to economic data as we approach the fall months (the time frame in which the Fed's taper announcement be...
Wed, Aug 4 2021, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates hit their best levels in 6 months yesterday, but moved higher today following a strong report on the services sector. The economy is on...
Wed, Aug 4 2021, 4:02 PM
Sell-Off Talked Tough But Backed Down When Confronted
On a week that started with a downbeat ISM Manufacturi...
Wed, Aug 4 2021, 10:54 AM
After a quiet, boring Tuesday, Wednesday is bringing the heat. It looked like things would get off to a solid start for bonds after weaker ADP data e...
Tue, Aug 3 2021, 5:15 PM
Inconsequential Trading Day With Some MBS Underperformance
Today was remarkably unremarkable. Volume and vo...
Tue, Aug 3 2021, 2:48 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower again today--extending a steady string of improvements that began after last week's Fed announcement. The average ...
Tue, Aug 3 2021, 11:30 AM
There is always a lull in covid reporting over the weekend as several states no longer publish weekend data. Monday's counts are thus informative as ...
Mon, Aug 2 2021, 3:40 PM
Bonds Surge Into August Despite Headwinds
It was an interesting juxtaposition to see a Fed speaker talking a...
Mon, Aug 2 2021, 10:59 AM
Due to the presence of bigger ticket economic data (among other things), it was fair to expect more volatility in the current week compared to the pre...
Fri, Jul 30 2021, 4:12 PM
Strong, Calm Week. Next Week Might Be Different
Saying "next week might be different" is of questionable va...
Fri, Jul 30 2021, 11:00 AM
The sun also rises and inflation also misses its forecast! After several months of reasonably big upside surprises, core PCE inflation finally undersh...
Thu, Jul 29 2021, 3:56 PM
Slightly Weaker Today, But Still In The Recent Range
Thursday proved to be a very forgettable session for th...
Thu, Jul 29 2021, 2:50 PM
"Taper talk" refers to comments, speeches, or official policy communications from the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") that speak to the timing and nat...
Thu, Jul 29 2021, 10:47 AM
With the Fed having confirmed their expected stance (closer to tapering, tolerant of short-term inflation, and plenty of pandemic-related uncertainty ...
