Thu, Jan 27 2022, 4:10 PM
What do we Make of Today's Bond Bounce?
After a big sell-off in response to yesterday's Fed announcement, bo...
Thu, Jan 27 2022, 11:01 AM
Stocks and bonds both sold off in response to yesterday's Fed events. Stocks weakened a bit more in the overnight session, but have been bouncing bac...
Wed, Jan 26 2022, 6:04 PM
Fed policy is critically important to interest rates and January has marked a shift in the Fed policy outlook. In not so many words, the Fed sees its...
Wed, Jan 26 2022, 4:51 PM
Fed Stays Course on Policy Tightening; Calls Out MBS
As expected, the Fed announcement did nothing to alter ...
Wed, Jan 26 2022, 2:01 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jan 26 2022, 9:46 AM
Recent major Fed communications have had a tendency to stoke the fires of momentum in the bond market. This began in earnest in September. Not every...
Tue, Jan 25 2022, 3:45 PM
It's a tale as old as time for those who closely follow the day to day gyrations in the mortgage market. Bond volatility forces lenders to raise ra...
Tue, Jan 25 2022, 3:30 PM
Intraday Volatility But Mostly For Treasuries; Fed On Deck
Bonds began the day trading right in line with ye...
Tue, Jan 25 2022, 10:32 AM
Monday had the potential to challenge the notion of the pre-Fed consolidation in the bond market. If yields had managed to break below 1.70% and hold...
Mon, Jan 24 2022, 3:48 PM
MBS Flip Script After Treasury Auction; Bonds Refuse to Chase Stocks
It was a fairly sloppy day of gains for...
Mon, Jan 24 2022, 9:57 AM
Bonds are off to stronger start for a 4th straight trading session. As such, they're following the same pattern as the rally attempt 2 weeks ago (whi...
Fri, Jan 21 2022, 8:09 PM
The bond market returned from a 3 day weekend to find yields surging higher on Tuesday. That pushed mortgage rates to fresh 2 year highs and added em...
Fri, Jan 21 2022, 3:35 PM
Another Green Day But MBS Underperform
Bonds rallied today with 10yr yields dropping more than 6bps by the 3...
Fri, Jan 21 2022, 11:26 AM
Bonds are off to an even stronger start on Friday, largely in response to a big risk-off move that rifled through markets in the last 90 minutes of tr...
Thu, Jan 20 2022, 4:14 PM
Still Waiting on Fed Above All Else
Bonds enjoyed another day of modest improvement on Thursday. On the plu...
Thu, Jan 20 2022, 3:31 PM
Today was one of the most uneventful days in recent memory for mortgage rates. The average lender is in very similar territory compared to yesterda...
Thu, Jan 20 2022, 9:55 AM
For the second day this week, bonds are off to a stronger start. The pattern is similar to last week where yields hit new long-term highs on the first...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates have been having a bad 2022 so far with the average lender up to the highest levels in roughly 2 years as of yesterday. The reason? T...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 3:58 PM
Decent Day, But There's a Catch
Bonds improved today! The rally was moderate by typical standards, but it f...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 10:02 AM
Remember last Thursday? Bonds had done a great job of pushing back in a friendly direction after a huge week of selling kicked off the new year. Tha...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 4:12 PM
One of the very few welcome byproducts of the pandemic was the pervasive availability of new all-time low mortgage rates. Depending on when you c...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 3:52 PM
Snowball Selling Continues. Why?
In not so many words, most of the rate drama seen during the past 3 weeks i...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 10:38 AM
Bonds sold off last Friday after 4 days of relative stability and improvement to start the week. Optimists hoped the weakness was a byproduct of the ...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 7:20 PM
In the past 2 weeks, press coverage of the Federal Reserve's policy outlook has ramped up significantly. The Fed is now expected to start hiking rate...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 5:51 PM
Friday's Sell-Off Makes Rest Of The Week Look Like a Trap
Over the past 2 days, we've pondered the fate of t...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 11:41 AM
Friday is not shaping up to be a great day for the mortgage bond market. Our benchmark guidance giver of choice (10yr yield) is in the midst of a pot...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 4:16 PM
Just Enough of a Rally to Keep Things Interesting
Coming into the day, we were pondering the fate of this we...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 4:06 PM
In almost every case, a day of bond market improvement results in rates moving lower. That makes sense considering mortgage rates are based primarily...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 11:12 AM
Whether we refer to it as a correction or consolidation, bonds have enjoyed a few days of moderate gains after selling off abruptly last week. Today'...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 4:45 PM
Mixed Signals in Data, Events, and The Market Reaction.
The hotly anticipated CPI data came in roughly in li...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 4:25 PM
Interest rates are typically determined by bond market. Mortgage rates, for instance, are directly tied to mortgage-specific bonds know as mortgage-b...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 11:36 AM
Yesterday's resilient trading day strengthened the case for a corrective (or consolidative ?) bounce after last week's big yield spike. Traders (a...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 4:39 PM
2022 has gotten off to a bad start for the bond market and consequently, mortgage rates. The pace has been on the aggressive side with the average ...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 4:12 PM
Is it Time To Get Excited About a Bounce?
As per the recent norm, bonds were fairly flat overnight and began...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 10:31 AM
Bonds were unchanged to slightly stronger for most of the overnight session, but are now losing ground modestly. In the context of the previous 2 tra...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 3:47 PM
A Glimmer of Resilience and a Primer on Which MBS Coupon to Watch
Bonds began the day by resuming the sellin...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 3:24 PM
Last week wasn't a great one for mortgage rates. Most lenders were roughly a quarter of a point higher on a conventional 30yr fixed scenario by Fri...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 12:16 PM
Last week saw bonds sell off at their fastest pace in at least 9 months on a combination of a hawkish pivot from the Fed and paradoxical omicron optim...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 5:00 PM
Seemingly overnight, the mortgage rate narrative has changed rather drastically, at least in relative terms. While rates had risen gradually from near...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 4:03 PM
Is It The Jobs Report, The Fed, or Something Else?
It's been quite a week of losses for the bond market. Wh...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 11:24 AM
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 199k versus a median forecast of 400k. On almost any NFP Friday before the pandemic, this would be worth some positivity ...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 4:18 PM
Stability, But at a Cost; Does NFP Matter Tomorrow?
In terms of intraday volatility, today was arguably the ...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 3:53 PM
Regular readers know that we're fond of setting the weekly record straight in cases where day-to-day rate movements paint a drastically different pict...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 12:22 PM
After watching the same consolidation pattern for the past few months and feeling that yields were safely below the upper boundary, that boundary has ...
Wed, Jan 5 2022, 4:39 PM
Big Sell-Off Following Fed Minutes
Even though the bond market thought it knew all it needed to know about t...
Wed, Jan 5 2022, 3:58 PM
The following represents only a portion of the full list of newswire headlines associated with today's Fed Minutes release, but these are likely the m...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates had been drifting modestly higher in general in the past 2 weeks, but the pace is accelerating in the new year. For some lenders, this...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 4:30 PM
Bonds Still Selling, But at a Slower Pace
In terms of volume, participation, and holiday closures, today was...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 9:43 AM
Tokyo and London are back in the office today after yesterday's holiday closures. EU yields moved modestly lower from their highest levels in roughly...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 4:13 PM
The year is not off to a great start for mortgage rates . At the end of last week, we were already looking at the highest levels in months. The s...
