Mon, Aug 8 2022, 4:13 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient Despite Supply-Related Headwinds
Supply and Demand 101 tells us that higher supply me...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 9:41 AM
Although Friday's post-payrolls sell-off was unpleasant for the bond market in the context of a single trading day, it was arguably a resilient showin...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 6:55 PM
The big monthly jobs report from the Labor Department (officially "The Employment Situation) is one of the most reliable sources of volatility for int...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 3:57 PM
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the ...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 1:29 PM
This morning's jobs report showed payroll creation at 528k for July compared to a median forecast of 250k and a previous reading of 398k. Perhaps equ...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 4:31 PM
Refreshingly Resilient Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds began the day with a slight boost from Europe's reaction t...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 12:26 PM
This morning's announcement from the Bank of England (BOE) led to a bond rally that helped 10yr yields hit 2.656% and MBS gain more than an eighth of ...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 11:01 AM
Regular readers are all too familiar with my fairly regular habit of explaining discrepancies between reality and the typical mortgage rate headlines ...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 3:16 PM
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data
Wednesday's key data point was the ISM Non-Manufacturing inde...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 2:10 PM
We've devoted lots of time and space recently to discussing the uncommon mortgage rate environment recently. The abbreviated thesis can be reduced to...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 10:49 AM
Written before today's ISM data: As of Monday afternoon, 10yr yields had spent 3 days breaking below a floor that had been intact for more than 3 mon...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 4:53 PM
Mortgage rates leapt higher at a record pace today--a statement that sounds a bit scarier than it really is by the time we consider the context. The ...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 4:13 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off?
After a stretch of 3 days where bonds could seemingly do no wrong...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 11:16 AM
No one wants to be Chicken Little when bonds are in the midst of a nice rally, but there's been no change to the recent thesis: Rates likely peaked in...
Mon, Aug 1 2022, 4:10 PM
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data
During the Fed's press conference last week, Powell reiterat...
Mon, Aug 1 2022, 11:02 AM
After several attempts to break through the low 2.7s in the past 4 months, 10yr yields finally made it into the 2.6s last Thursday and managed to hold...
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 6:09 PM
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 6:03 PM
Modest Gains, But Huge Moves in Rate Sheets
By the end of the week, the power of MBS coupon stack compressio...
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 10:37 AM
Both the June PCE inflation data and the Employment Cost Index came in hotter than expected this morning. Bonds certainly thought about selling in re...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 5:23 PM
Mortgage rates have been all over the map recently, both in terms of their movement and in their variation between lenders. It's not altogether uncom...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 3:54 PM
Big Rally After Big GDP Miss
We don't often think much of GDP as a major consideration for the bond market, ...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 12:23 PM
Feel free to debate recession vs no recession amongst yourselves. The economy is more complex than a single word, but today's GDP number says the eco...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 5:59 PM
The Federal Reserve concluded one of its 8 regularly scheduled meetings in 2022 today. As expected, they announced a rate hike of 0.75%. But if you s...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 4:56 PM
MBS Outperform After Powell Discusses The Fed's Outlook
The Fed stuck closely to the script in today's annou...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 2:01 PM
Overall economic activity appears to Recent indicators of spending and production have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job softe...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 12:36 PM
A few weeks ago, expectations ramped up for the Fed to hike rates by 100bps at the conclusion of today's meeting. That sentiment lasted only a few da...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 4:23 PM
Some quick housekeeping before we dig into the headline: mortgage rates are slightly higher so far this week. The increases were in place on Monday. ...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 3:56 PM
Leading-Off And Pulling-Back Ahead of Fed
Bonds began the day in stronger territory thanks to another overni...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 10:55 AM
July has been a month with a decidedly European flair for the US bond market. Sure, there's been plenty of inspiration from domestic inflation data a...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 4:17 PM
Slow Start With Some Resilience After AM Weakness
Volume was "summertime low," which is par for the course o...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 10:52 AM
Bonds rallied fairly sharply at the end of last week, largely in response to weaker economic data at home and abroad. In Friday's recap, we discussed...
Fri, Jul 22 2022, 4:59 PM
Rally Accelerates After Weak PMI Data. Fed Coming Up Next Week
Eurozone PMI data was much weaker in the over...
Fri, Jul 22 2022, 4:50 PM
The market came into the week with a big focus on the scheduled policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). While our focus remains on ...
Fri, Jul 22 2022, 11:12 AM
This week's decidedly European theme was only reinforced overnight as bonds benefitted from weaker PMI data in Germany, France, and the overall Eurozo...
Thu, Jul 21 2022, 4:26 PM
Big Bad Econ Data and Big ECB News = Big Victory For Bonds
Bonds shrugged off a 50bp hike from the European ...
Thu, Jul 21 2022, 3:38 PM
Thursday brought the much-anticipated policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). While our focus remains on mortgage rates in an entir...
Thu, Jul 21 2022, 11:15 AM
If you had to pick today's most important calendar item based on its potential impact on the bond market, the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement...
Wed, Jul 20 2022, 3:51 PM
Strong Start and Strong Reversal Ahead of ECB
European markets led bonds well into stronger territory overni...
Wed, Jul 20 2022, 10:01 AM
On a week without much by way of domestic econ data and the biggest ticket market mover being Thursday's European Central Bank announcement, it's no s...
Tue, Jul 19 2022, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the price of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are essentially bonds consisting of numerous similar mortga...
Tue, Jul 19 2022, 11:08 AM
If we were limited to only one observation about the bond market over the past few trading sessions, it would be that volume and volatility have been ...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 4:42 PM
Weaker Despite Decent Mid-Day Bounce
Bonds began the week in weaker territory with yields pulled higher by E...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 11:15 AM
This week's economic data is primarily focused on the housing market with NAHB, Housing Starts, and Existing Sales on the first 3 days respectively. ...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 5:02 PM
It was a week for paradoxes on several fronts, most notably when mortgage rates moved lower just after the Fed floated the idea of an even bigger hike...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 3:38 PM
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data?
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 12:10 PM
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a bearing on the Fed's debate between a 75bp and 100bp hike at the upcoming July meeti...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 4:43 PM
A week ago today, we saw one of the most glaring examples of the popular Freddie Mac mortgage rate survey sending mixed signals to reporters and consu...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 4:23 PM
Nice Bounce Back After a Bumpy Morning
All in all, today's trading range fell inside yesterday's and this we...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 12:27 PM
In the bigger picture, longer-term yields are trading a narrow, sideways range this week with today's yields well inside yesterday's range and yesterd...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 3:40 PM
Ask anyone who knows a thing or two about how interest rates work and they'll tell you: inflation is the enemy! What caused the record high rates b...
