Mon, Jan 3 2022, 3:59 PM
Unhappy New Year For Bonds So Far
The first trading day of the new year ended up being one of the worst in m...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 9:54 AM
Both Tokyo and London were closed overnight, which didn't do anything to help the light liquidity environment of the winter holidays. Domestic accoun...
Fri, Dec 31 2021, 10:30 AM
It's a sign of the times that the only conversations on MBS Live's MBS Community pertain to this morning's Encompass outage. Actually, it's a sign of ...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 3:22 PM
Bonds Snap Back Into Holiday Mode
Wednesday's abrupt sell-off increasingly looks like the market's way of ge...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates began the week in decent shape, but moved higher somewhat abruptly yesterday. Context is important though. The smallest increment of ...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 10:19 AM
From the early days of the pandemic, one of the most important realities to consider was that of the eventual recovery, both from the most abject phas...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 5:10 PM
What's Up With The Big Sell-Off in Bonds?
The omicron narrative is one reason being tossed around for today'...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 8:57 AM
Treasuries trade almost 24 hours a day (assuming London and Tokyo are not out on holiday), but if the domestic bond market has an unofficial opening b...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in 2 weeks heading into Christmas weekend. The average lender raised costs by a very small amount again on Mond...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 4:28 PM
Every Bit As Quiet As It Was Supposed To Be
There's really no way to predict the future when it comes to rat...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 11:21 AM
Like Monday, bonds traded flat to slightly stronger in Asia, were closed in London, popped a bit higher in early domestic trading, and are now droppin...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 3:23 PM
Bonds Sticking to Uneventful Script
There was little to observe and even less to report on today's bon marke...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 12:58 PM
While bonds aren't closed for business this week, it wouldn't much matter if they were--at least not for the average mortgage rate watcher. That's no...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 7:48 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher for the third straight day on Wednesday. This brings the average lender to the highest levels in exactly 2 weeks. But ...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 4:02 PM
Sideways, Boring, and Slightly Stronger
10yr futures contract volume was roughly 600k by 3pm. That's on par...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 11:05 AM
If you've grown tired of hearing about holiday related illiquidity in the bond market or you otherwise are fully up to speed on its implications, you'...
Tue, Dec 21 2021, 4:41 PM
Incidental Weakness
This morning's commentary covers everything that needs to be said in today's closing com...
Tue, Dec 21 2021, 10:20 AM
One of the best things to keep in mind not just for financial markets but for life in general is that explanations are rarely black and white when it ...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 5:28 PM
For most lenders, mortgage rates edged slightly higher at the start of the holiday-shortened week. The exception would be among those lenders who made...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 4:54 PM
Small Scale Volatility Leaves Bonds Slightly Weaker
The day began on a modestly positive note and ended with...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 11:11 AM
Despite a bit of 2-way trading, bonds are starting the day in slightly stronger territory. Pandemic concerns remain the most obvious source of inspir...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 6:45 PM
Sure, we could write a headline that attempts to distill the concept of a big picture struggle between the forces exerting upward pressure on rates an...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 3:50 PM
Mixed Performance Amid Light Liquidity and Fed Comments
The bond market shifted into a predictable gear for ...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 11:29 AM
3 hawkish central bank announcements on Wed/Thu have been no match for the bullish impulses at the end of the week. These include but are not limited...
Thu, Dec 16 2021, 4:55 PM
Bonds Defy Logic, Rallying Nicely After Central Banks Tighten
There are only so many ways to explain what ha...
Thu, Dec 16 2021, 9:45 AM
If you're not familiar with Fezzik from The Princess Bride, you have more important things to do than read about what's going on in the bond market (b...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates were fairly flat heading into today's important Fed announcement. Despite arguably receiving bad news, they didn't move too much higher...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 4:22 PM
Surprisingly Resilient After Fed Doubles Tapering Pace
After implementing the tapering plan 6 short weeks ag...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 11:26 AM
By the time we finally arrive at a much-anticipated Fed day, there's not much to do in the morning hours apart from the proverbial "hurry up and wait....
Tue, Dec 14 2021, 4:10 PM
Calm Today. Bigger Volatility a Risk For Tomorrow
Treasuries began the domestic session in modestly weaker t...
Tue, Dec 14 2021, 3:30 PM
Traditionally, financial markets have been interested in announcements from the Federal Reserve due to the Fed's policy rate (the Fed Funds Rate) and ...
Tue, Dec 14 2021, 9:14 AM
The week before last (the one where omicron resulted in faster-paced stock losses and bond gains) 10yr yields ran into some resistance on their journe...
Mon, Dec 13 2021, 4:29 PM
Weekend News Cycle Hurts Stocks, Helps Bonds
Whether it's bothersome restrictions domestically or more emerg...
Mon, Dec 13 2021, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates have been fairly flat in the bigger picture, but each passing day continues to bring small scale movements. This is almost always the c...
Mon, Dec 13 2021, 8:59 AM
The last 2 weeks have seen elevated volatility for the bond market. Omicron concerns took yields lower, but the gains reversed as concerns moderated....
Fri, Dec 10 2021, 5:37 PM
Financial market volatility increased noticeably after the emergence of the omicron variant. Last week, that proved to be good for rates and bad for s...
Fri, Dec 10 2021, 3:53 PM
What's Up With Today's MBS Volatility?
MBS prices suffered from two infrequent sources of volatility today. ...
Fri, Dec 10 2021, 12:08 PM
This week's economic data headliner was this morning's CPI report. It showed core inflation at 4.9% as expected. Had the number been 2bps higher or ...
Thu, Dec 9 2021, 4:08 PM
Refreshingly Resilient Despite Bumpy 30yr Auction
There have been a few flashes of resilience in the bond ma...
Thu, Dec 9 2021, 2:52 PM
Mortgage rates stabilized yesterday after moving higher on the first 2 days of the week. They managed to improve modestly today despite some volatilit...
Thu, Dec 9 2021, 10:01 AM
In yesterday's overnight session, European bonds were the key driver of US bond market weakness. Now in today's overnight session, they've had the op...
Wed, Dec 8 2021, 4:16 PM
Losses Continue for Treasuries, But Not MBS
Treasury yields were set to start the day lower before upbeat om...
Wed, Dec 8 2021, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates stabilized today after spending the past 2 days moving modestly higher. In general, rates moved almost exclusively lower last week in r...
Wed, Dec 8 2021, 9:14 AM
If last week could be reduced to a single theme, it would be that of omicron concerns driving a bond rally and stock sell-off. This week's theme is o...
Tue, Dec 7 2021, 4:41 PM
Bonds Remain Under Pressure, But MBS Outperformed
Bonds managed to remain sideways during AM hours. In fact...
Tue, Dec 7 2021, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today thus keeping them well within the sideways range that's been in place for the past 2 months. Omicron-related n...
Tue, Dec 7 2021, 9:41 AM
Last week's story was simple: unknowns and risks surrounding omicron prompted traders to shed risk by selling stocks and buying bonds. Unfortunately ...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 4:26 PM
Bonds Sell-Off, But MBS Outperform
The week began decently enough with bonds holding most of last week's gai...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow , sideways range since October. During that time, the average 30yr fixed rate hasn't moved by more than an e...
