Soon I will head to Michigan. Isolationists beware: Federal records revealed by a Freedom of Information Act request have found that the government of Singapore owns approximately 5 percent of all land in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The city-state’s sovereign wealth fund, The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, is the sole owner of 540,000 acres of forestland in the Upper Peninsula, much of which is slated for active timber harvesting. In Gogebic County alone, Singapore owns one-sixth of all land. From 2021 to 2022, GIC spent $450 million to buy the land from other companies. For perspective, Singapore itself is only around 182,000 acres in size. For perspective, U.S. public lands managed by the federal government cover about 640 million acres of the country, or about 28 percent of the country’s landmass. Of that, 36 percent of all federal public lands are in Alaska alone with the American West accounting for another 56 percent. The rest of the country carries the eight percent balance. 82 million people visited BLM lands for recreational purposes in 2023. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by nCino. nCino Mortgage unites the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. Today’s has an interview with Foundation Mortgage’s Marc Halpern on builder confidence and the stratification of buyer demand across metros, giving credence to the phrase “real estate is local.”)

Products, Services, and Software for Lenders and Brokers

“Looking to cut verification costs by up to 50 percent while improving borrower experience and pull-through? Truework helps lenders streamline income and employment verification through a single VOIEA platform used by four of the top five lenders. With an industry-leading 75 percent completion rate, our platform consistently outperforms competitors and manual waterfalls in speed, cost, accuracy, and R&W relief. We also offer free pre-approvals to help you qualify borrowers faster… Only pay when we complete a file. Used with First and Second liens as well as in Wholesale. Fast to implement, easy to use, and built to drive ROI. Let’s talk.”

Many wholesale lenders attend trade shows hoping for leads, but RCN Capital arrives with a strategy that guarantees a solid ROI. Join us on Tuesday, August 5 at 1PM ET / 10AM PT for "Maximizing Tradeshows to Win More Broker Business," part of the Winning Wholesale NMP Webinar series, to discover how RCN succeeds at every trade show the staff attends. Featured guests Erica LaCentra and Mary Margaret Hogan will share the exact strategies RCN uses before, during, and after each event, including how to develop a pre-show plan, train booth staff to convert prospects, and follow up in ways that generate production rather than just pipeline. Find out why brand lift can outperform lead lists, and how to make every trade show a worthwhile investment. Register now by clicking here.

“Vista Point Mortgage has closed VSTA 2025-CES2, a $295 million securitization of Non-QM Closed-End Second (CES). It included our innovative DSCR CES, an industry first. Vista Point Mortgage has pioneered the non-QM CES asset class during its development throughout 2022, launching nationally in 2023. Now, with over $1.7 billion in CES production, the company leads the way with five transactions successfully sold into the capital markets. Our correspondent channel has contributed a sizable amount of target “down the middle” characteristic loans into the deal, which has a weighted average coupon in the high 9 percent area, CLTV in the mid-high 60’s, FICO in the mid 730’s, DTI in the low-mid 30’s, and our pioneering DSCR CES with a 1.24 DSCR ratio. As a true leader in non-QM and CES, VPM looks forward to connecting with its Correspondent Partners at the Western Secondary Market Conference in Rancho Palos Verdes, CA, on August 11-13. For any other inquiries, please email info@vistapointmtg.com or visit vistapointmortgage.com.”

Headed to the CMBA Western Secondary Conference in Rancho Palos Verdes, CA on Aug. 11- 13? The Axos Bank Warehouse Lending Team will be there too. While many mortgage banks are expanding their product offerings, we're proud to be scaling ours, including lines of credit from $15MM to $350MM, extended funding cutoff hours to 6:15 p.m. ET, access to over 100 takeout investors, and diverse product offerings, including reverse, second liens, and non-QM loans. So, let's set up a time to talk about fast and flexible lending solutions to maximize your origination opportunities. Contact our Warehouse Lending team to secure a meeting: Eric Nelepovitz, VP; Bobby Martini, SVP; and Justin Castillo, AMP. Won't be at the conference? Not a problem. We're always here to answer your questions and inquiries. Contact our team or visit Axos Bank Residential Warehouse Lending.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

AI Court Case

John V. Levonick with Garris Horn LLP, addressed a case that has implications for mortgage lenders as well as all financial services, including mortgage lending.

The Massachusetts Attorney General's $2.5 million settlement with student loan lender Earnest Operations LLC marks a pivotal moment in AI regulation, demonstrating how existing consumer protection laws are being forcefully applied to algorithmic decision-making systems. Announced on July 10, 2025, this settlement addressed allegations of unfair and deceptive practices and fair lending violations, primarily stemming from the company's alleged misuse of artificial intelligence (AI) underwriting models. While this resolution was a settlement, reached through an Assurance of Discontinuance (AOD) filed in Suffolk County Superior Court, rather than a court ruling after a contested trial, it establishes a significant enforcement benchmark for AI liability.

Capital Markets

Remember when today was supposed to be the trade deal deadline day?! Though admittedly it doesn’t seem as fun as Major League Baseball’s trade deadline that happened yesterday evening. Hours before President Trump’s sweeping tariffs were set to take effect, he announced new, steep rates for more than five dozen countries. And he delayed the deadline again, with most of the tariffs now set to take effect next week.

President Trump’s trade agenda has yielded both victories and setbacks as he reimposes suspended tariffs and finalizes key deals. Wins include securing agreements with the EU and South Korea that raise tariffs to historic levels and boost U.S. exports of fossil fuels and aircraft. These moves, however, have also disrupted global trade alliances, hurt industries like auto and agriculture, and sparked inflationary pressures, with many deals still unfinished and uncertainty clouding the long-term economic impact. It has weakened the dollar and unexpectedly boosted investor interest in emerging markets, attracting billions in capital flows.

While Trump's aggressive tariff threats, such as a new 25 percent duty on Indian exports, have sparked concerns about the dollar's reserve status and rising Treasury yields, recent bilateral deals and signals from the Treasury about steady auction sizes and possible buybacks have calmed market fears. Despite ongoing trade tensions, investors are shifting focus back to macro fundamentals, though questions remain about U.S. consumer resilience and the long-term economic impact of these trade policies.

The July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, marked by Fed Chair Powell’s notably hawkish tone, cast a long shadow over the Treasury’s announcement of increased buybacks of long-dated bonds yesterday, signaling a tightening policy environment. The odds of a September rate cut have dropped from around 95 percent a month ago to less than 40 percent currently, as Powell emphasized that the economy isn’t showing signs of being constrained by restrictive policy.

The Fed appears to believe that the neutral rate of growth may be higher than previously assumed, making the case for easing less urgent unless economic data significantly deteriorates. With two key jobs and inflation reports due before the September FOMC decision, the Fed’s posture suggests cuts will only come in response to clear signs of slowing growth, especially if unemployment pushes toward 5 percent. Until then, the most likely scenario is a delay to later in the fall, with any dovish shift being carefully messaged via updated projections and guidance later in the year.

On the data front, we learned yesterday that the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation increased in June at one of the fastest paces this year while consumer spending barely rose, underscoring the dueling forces dividing policymakers over the path of interest rates. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items, rose 0.3 percent from May, according to U.S. government data. It advanced 2.8 percent on an annual basis, a pickup from June 2024 that underscores limited progress on taming inflation in the past year.

Separately, consumers grew a bit more optimistic on coming conditions in July, but households remain hesitant. Tariff fears and a steady moderation in the labor market continue to leave them less confident in their job prospects which could limit their capacity to keep spending. Initial jobless claims increased slightly from last week after six consecutive week-over-week decreases. And mortgage rates fell for the second straight week in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, with the 30-year mortgage rate declining 2-basis points to 6.72 percent.

The July payrolls report led off today’s calendar. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 73k, missing estimates indicating “cracks” in the labor market. The unemployment rate in July was 4.2 percent, as expected and up from 4.1 percent last month. Average hourly earnings were +.3 percent as expected month-over-month and 3.8 percent year-over-year versus 0.2 percent and 3.7 percent in June. Later today brings the final July S&P Global manufacturing PMI, the ISM equivalent, and final July Michigan sentiment. After the salvo of employment news, Agency MBS prices are better than Thursday’s close by .125-.250, the 2-year is yielding 3.83, and the 10-year is yielding 4.30 after closing yesterday at 4.36 percent.