Wed, Mar 16 2022, 4:20 PM
Big Swoon After Fed Announcement, Big Recovery Later
Today delivered on the typical Fed day promise of big m...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 2:01 PM
Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in rec...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 11:10 AM
We already know that tapering has wrapped up as of last week and that the Fed will continue to reinvest proceeds from the existing bond portfolio unti...
Tue, Mar 15 2022, 4:44 PM
Annoying Little Head-Fake, But Don't Abandon All Hope
Just when the bond market looks like it will throw you...
Tue, Mar 15 2022, 1:11 PM
Coming off of yesterday's gigantic selling spree, bonds caught a break in the overnight session after briefly hitting even higher highs (10yr topped o...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 4:10 PM
What's Up With Today's Massive Sell-Off In Bonds?
Bonds tanked hard today. Losses were in place right from ...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 10:38 AM
If anything, fighting intensified over the weekend in Ukraine. This is something that would typically drive more safe-haven buying in the bond market...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 3:49 PM
Uncharacteristically Quiet, But Still Slightly Weaker
Bonds started the overnight session stronger, but lost...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 11:48 AM
Today marks the conclusion of the Fed's post-covid balance sheet expansion. In other words. Tapering is complete. Before covid, the Fed enacted qua...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 4:00 PM
Bonds Not Catching a Break From Strong Auction or Lower Oil Prices
Oil prices fell today today and the bond ...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 9:39 AM
The bond market is looking past Ukraine and economic data this morning to focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The reaction in EU b...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 4:31 PM
Hopeful Markets and Big Corporate Deal Pushes Yields Higher
Stocks and bond yields moved higher in unison to...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 12:49 PM
As we've discussed over the past 2 days, the bond market remains stuck between a rock and a hard place. If things get worse in Ukraine, commodity pri...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 4:22 PM
Struggling to Find a Rate-Friendly Narrative
Bonds sold off early in the overnight session and then more sha...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 11:39 AM
Things aren't always as simple as they seem. Let's hope that's the case for bonds, because things seem tragically simple when we try to reconcile the...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 4:15 PM
Bonds Struggling With Inflation Implications
Although the bond market is still a net beneficiary from the wa...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 10:05 AM
The week is getting off to a weaker start. Bonds rallied in the first hour of overnight trading but began to lose ground steadily after that. By the...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 4:07 PM
Yields Near Recent Lows Heading Into Another Highly Uncertain Weekend
Bonds began the overnight session with...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 11:46 AM
As Russia continues waging war on Ukraine and wage growth disappointed in this morning's jobs report, bonds are rallying back toward the best levels o...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 4:14 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Mid-Week Rout
Any additional weakness after Wednesday's blood-letting would have ad...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 12:42 PM
There was more than a shred of hope in the overnight trading session as bonds were able to make modest gains despite slightly stronger stocks and anot...
Wed, Mar 2 2022, 4:40 PM
Biggest Selling Spree in a Long Time, Here's Why
Absolutely massive selling in MBS today with 3.0 coupons lo...
Wed, Mar 2 2022, 11:41 AM
The flight to safety trade has been dominating markets in the past week with bond yields hitting their lowest levels since January 13th yesterday and ...
Tue, Mar 1 2022, 4:32 PM
Flight to Safety Dominates While Escalation Threats Remain
The line of traders waiting to buy Treasuries is ...
Tue, Mar 1 2022, 10:54 AM
The line of traders waiting to buy Treasuries is as long as the line of trucks waiting to invade Kyiv. As long as the world is convinced that things ...
Mon, Feb 28 2022, 4:06 PM
Massive Month-End Buying Collides With Safe-Haven Demand
There was already a ton of safe haven demand in the...
Mon, Feb 28 2022, 1:53 PM
If it hasn't already happened, we'll likely all be tired of hearing the phrase 'geopolitical risks' by the end of the week. As far as non-experts can...
Fri, Feb 25 2022, 4:43 PM
Bonds End Roughly Unchanged As Market Prices Out Some Risk
Bonds started weaker and gradually worked their w...
Fri, Feb 25 2022, 11:44 AM
Russia's military operations in and around Ukraine over the past 3 weeks have created significant volatility for the bond market. The fact that the ma...
Thu, Feb 24 2022, 4:22 PM
What Did Bonds Give Up So Much Of Their Gains?
Russia fully invaded Ukraine overnight and bonds surged in re...
Thu, Feb 24 2022, 12:48 PM
Russia fully invaded Ukraine overnight and bonds surged in response. Stocks fell. Oil prices surged. Then at 5:30am, oil prices and bonds reversed ...
Wed, Feb 23 2022, 3:40 PM
No Love For Bonds Despite Decent Auction and Stock Sell-Off
Bonds started the day in moderately weaker terri...
Wed, Feb 23 2022, 12:28 PM
As we look back on the past few trading days (and reconcile them with up-to-the-minute action) it increasingly looks like stocks and bonds priced in a...
Tue, Feb 22 2022, 4:43 PM
Treasuries Still Pricing In Some Uncertainty; MBS Underperform.
Bonds had a volatile trading day as markets ...
Tue, Feb 22 2022, 9:51 AM
Overnight trading was volatile at first, with yields falling all the way to 1.846 for 10yr Treasuries. In the first hour of domestic trading, they've...
Fri, Feb 18 2022, 4:15 PM
Would Rates Be Going Higher Without Ukraine Situation?
Rates were rising abruptly as of last Thursday when t...
Fri, Feb 18 2022, 12:43 PM
3-day weekends are generally popular among the "weekday 9-5" crowd, but they can also bring elevated uncertainty to financial markets when the news cy...
Thu, Feb 17 2022, 4:38 PM
Bonds Continue Watching Geopolitical Sideshow
Bonds are in a bit of a lull in the bigger picture. Yields ha...
Wed, Feb 16 2022, 4:11 PM
No Whammies in Fed Minutes, Geopolitics, or Bond Volatility
Today ended up being one of the least volatile t...
Wed, Feb 16 2022, 12:39 PM
Bonds finally had a relatively flat trading session overnight with no Russia/Ukraine headlines sparking any obvious reactions. Stronger Retail Sales ...
Tue, Feb 15 2022, 5:08 PM
Ukraine Headlines Are Noise in The Bigger (Badder) Picture
The overnight trading session was marked by sever...
Tue, Feb 15 2022, 10:01 AM
The downside of a bond rally based on geopolitical risk is that gains can evaporate quickly in the event of de-escalation. That's the theme of today'...
Mon, Feb 14 2022, 3:53 PM
Comic Misdirection Between Headlines and Markets
Geopolitical issues remain at the forefront as far as finan...
Mon, Feb 14 2022, 11:34 AM
Last Friday's big news involved a series of headlines suggesting imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. This sent stocks and especially bond yields pl...
Fri, Feb 11 2022, 4:23 PM
Massive Reversal After Russia/Ukraine Headlines
Quite the round trip today as bond yields hit the weakest le...
Fri, Feb 11 2022, 11:49 AM
Consumer Sentiment was the only report on the calendar today. Markets typically don't pay too much attention to it and today is no exception. Market...
Thu, Feb 10 2022, 4:10 PM
Bonds Obliterated. Why and What Next?
Today was an astonishingly bad day for the bond market relative to wh...
Thu, Feb 10 2022, 9:45 AM
The history of financial markets is littered with modestly higher CPI numbers that failed to cause any volatility. Today is shaping up to be quite th...
Wed, Feb 9 2022, 4:11 PM
Strong Auction But Bonds Retreat at The Close
This morning's market summary headline mentioned the strong st...
Wed, Feb 9 2022, 11:44 AM
US and EU yields continue to correlate fairly well. This is a blessing and curse--sometimes both at the same time depending on the point of view. Fo...
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