Tue, Apr 6 2021, 4:25 PM
Evidence For a Ceiling Continues to Accumulate
All the normal disclaimers are in order:
- This is a rising...
Tue, Apr 6 2021, 10:26 AM
Global financial markets are entirely open today for the first time since last Thursday, thus giving us a chance to see if this month's momentum will ...
Mon, Apr 5 2021, 3:57 PM
Rates Still Trying to Establish a Ceiling
The rising rate trend of 2021 is increasingly being called into qu...
Mon, Apr 5 2021, 9:59 AM
The rising rate trend of 2021 is increasingly being called into question--even if only temporarily--due to the inability of 10yr yields to quickly bre...
Fri, Apr 2 2021, 2:41 PM
Huge Jobs Numbers and a Logical (But Muted) Bond Reaction
There were "whisper" numbers earlier this week sug...
Fri, Apr 2 2021, 9:40 AM
There were "whisper" numbers earlier this week suggesting nonfarm payrolls could come in closer to 1 million as opposed to the median forecast of 647k...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 4:09 PM
Thursday Curse Broken. NFP Friday
Thursdays have been almost universally bad in 2021--a point that was drive...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 10:55 AM
March's month/quarter-end trading got more credit than normal for moving markets in the past week or two. As such, it's fair to hope for April to bri...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 4:21 PM
Month/Quarter-End Trading Refresher; More Stimulus Details
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. ...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 11:10 AM
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. That means more for financial markets than it does for many other sectors. While there is no hard an...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 3:49 PM
'Unchanged' Feels Like a Victory
Bonds began the day at the highest yields in more than a year and slowly wo...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 9:36 AM
Bonds remain in the midst of a very large and sustained sell-off. Generally speaking, the rising rate environment is a logical byproduct of pande...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 4:27 PM
New Week, New Weakness
The new week wasted very little time in reinforcing the realities of 2021. This is a...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 10:21 AM
Last week ended on a sour note with moderately brisk selling on Friday erasing what had been a relatively hopeful trend up until that point. Bonds co...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 5:13 PM
Valiant Effort But This Week's Bounce-Back Effort Falls Short
Insult, meet injury? Oh, you're already acqua...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 10:46 AM
1.62% has been one of the most important technical levels for 10yr yields in the past month. After breaking above last week, we had a chance to confi...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 3:37 PM
Thursday Curse Continues But It Was Still a Good Day for Bonds
Although bonds won't be able to say they b...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 10:06 AM
Today could be the day. If markets were to close right now, it would be the first day in 2021 where bonds could say they'd rallied 4 days in a row or...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 3:44 PM
Decent Day Despite Lukewarm Treasury Auction. Dovish Fed Helps
This morning's weaker Durable Goods data had ...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 9:27 AM
Bonds are starting the day in roughly unchanged territory after trying to go on a stronger run in the overnight session. If the remainder of the week...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 3:33 PM
Strong Move Today. Need Confirmation in Coming Days
Bonds walked their own path today with gains overnight h...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 10:40 AM
Fed Chair Powell will be in the hot seat again today, only this time in the form of congressional testimony on the CARES Act. The prepared remarks fo...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 4:24 PM
Not a Bad Day, But We Need More Convincing
Rates have tried to convince us that the worst is over on several...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 9:51 AM
Last week was the 7th straight week of higher bond yields--something we haven't seen since Q2 2009, when bonds were undergoing their first correction ...
Fri, Mar 19 2021, 4:47 PM
Fed Confirms Market's Fear; Bonds Manage to Hold This Week's Range
The last time bonds sold off for 6 consec...
Fri, Mar 19 2021, 10:36 AM
Based on the number of times members have searched the term "SLR" on MBS Live in the past week, we'll go ahead and cover it here again. SLR = Supplem...
Thu, Mar 18 2021, 4:09 PM
Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Float Overnight
We're putting in for permits to build our own Pirates of the Caribb...
Thu, Mar 18 2021, 11:26 AM
Powell was reasonably dovish yesterday. He immediately shut down a reporter who asked when we could talk about tapering. He reiterated the need to r...
Wed, Mar 17 2021, 4:36 PM
Powell Punts on SLR; Bonds Survive... Sorta
Today could have been much worse even though no one will look...
Wed, Mar 17 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Mar 17 2021, 9:56 AM
For the 17th time in 2021, we can unhappily re-use the same lead in: just when you thought bonds surely wouldn't get any weaker... 10yr yields hit mo...
Tue, Mar 16 2021, 3:53 PM
No Help From Strong Auction or Weak Data; Waiting on The Fed
Bonds shrugged off a big miss in Retail Sales t...
Tue, Mar 16 2021, 10:19 AM
So far this morning, bonds have passed over the econ data in favor consolidating inside Friday's trading range. Given the proximity of the Fed announ...
Mon, Mar 15 2021, 3:52 PM
Fighting Good Fight, Waiting on Fed Day
Coming off a fairly rough Friday at the end of last week, it's mildl...
Mon, Mar 15 2021, 9:21 AM
Last week ended poorly for the bond market with yields jumping to new one year highs. It was also the first full week with 10yr yields trading above 2...
Fri, Mar 12 2021, 3:36 PM
Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend
By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string toge...
Fri, Mar 12 2021, 10:27 AM
By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string together several of the most reassuring days of 2021. Today's early losses provide a wa...
Thu, Mar 11 2021, 3:36 PM
Tame Treasury Auctions. What's Up With New NOO/2nd Fees?
The week's biggest potential market movers (the 10...
Thu, Mar 11 2021, 10:31 AM
Yesterday's much-anticipated 10yr auction was extremely underwhelming. Combine that with fairly flat trading levels at the moment and the mortgage co...
Wed, Mar 10 2021, 4:01 PM
Reasons For Both Hope and Caution
Today's 10yr auction was average, but that performance followed a mid-d...
Wed, Mar 10 2021, 10:02 AM
2021's rate spike is big enough and has been going on long enough that there is widespread speculation about how much worse it could get. While it is...
Tue, Mar 9 2021, 4:16 PM
Wednesday's 10yr Auction Could Cast a Big Vote on a Bounce
With bonds coming into the session in much strong...
Tue, Mar 9 2021, 9:58 AM
Much like February 26th, overnight strength in the bond market allows us to ask the same obvious question: "is this the bounce?" Much like Feb 26th, ...
Mon, Mar 8 2021, 3:38 PM
3-Day Weekend for Volatility; Waiting on Supply
After Friday's bond market rout, today's relatively calm tra...
Mon, Mar 8 2021, 10:04 AM
Over the past 3-4 months, the prospect of fiscal stimulus has done major damage to the bond market. It wouldn't have been a surprise to see more weak...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 5:28 PM
Huge Jobs Report, Logical Weakness, and a Nice Bounce, But...
Bonds did quite well today considering Powell'...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 10:30 AM
Today began with Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at 379k vs 182k forecast. Last month's numbers were revised up to 166k from 49k. The unemployment rate t...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 4:19 PM
Powell Does Exactly What He Was Supposed To (And Bonds Didn't Like It)
From this AM: "some recent analysis h...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 2:57 PM
There seems to be a fair amount of surprise and confusion surrounding today's bond market sell-off in response to Fed Chair Powell's Q&A with the WSJ....
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 9:29 AM
Monday and Tuesday brought a stronger start for bonds and, with it, hopes that a broader bounce was in the works. Wednesday dashed those hopes and in...
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