Fri, Feb 17 2023, 4:20 PM
Legit Buying Demand or Position Squaring?
"Position squaring" is fancy market jargon that refers to closing ...
Fri, Feb 17 2023, 9:42 AM
The current landscape is fairly simple. The bond market has been in the midst of a "repricing" event following the jobs report at the beginning of th...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 3:31 PM
Another Day, Another Sell-Off
Bonds may not have sold off in an overly excessive manner today, but they sold...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 9:27 AM
The bond market has specialized in playing defense for most of February as economic data and consistently hawkish Fed messaging paints a bleak pictur...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 3:40 PM
More Yield Curve Musings and Retail Sales Reaction
Retail Sales was today's big ticket data point and it cam...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 12:08 PM
Yesterday's CPI data validated the Fed's constant refrain regarding persistent inflation. This morning's Retail Sales data (for the month of January)...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 3:25 PM
More Data to Prove The Fed's Point; Rates Don't Like It
It will take one of two things for the current risin...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 9:53 AM
Given that today's bond trading volume has already eclipsed yesterday's, it's fair to say traders were every bit as anxious to trade this data as we e...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 4:14 PM
Which CPI Number Matters Most and How Wide is The Potential Range of Reactions?
Monday turned out to be an i...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 12:11 PM
Bonds got a good amount of selling out of the way last week as markets finally picked up what the Fed has been putting down for months. All it took w...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Keep Fading; Cue The CPI Anxiety
This morning's commentary headline was "if bonds aren't rallying, the...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 11:25 AM
At the risk of repeating a common thesis in recent days, bonds had a choice to make at the end of January. The decision was whether or not a rally of...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 3:11 PM
Gains Evaporate After Weaker Auction; Sideways Volatility Expected Ahead of CPI
CPI, NFP, CPI, Fed Day, NFP,...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 12:17 PM
The order of business this week has been fairly simple. The market had been telling itself that the Fed would end up cutting rates by the end of 2023...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Strong Auction Helps, But Not Enough to Get Rates Back Into The Recent Range
Without much economic data this...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 9:57 AM
One of the biggest uncertainties of the week was resolved on Tuesday with Fed Chair Powell answering questions about the policy outlook without any re...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 3:19 PM
Bonds Tried (And Failed) to Sustain Post-Powell Rally
After much anticipation and defensive positioning, the...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 9:11 AM
In the wake of last week's strong economic data on Friday and follow-through weakness in overseas markets, traders are gearing up for additional Fed r...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:23 PM
Suddenly Scared About Powell and Supply
Most of today's market movement was in the books within the first ha...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:47 AM
Friday's strong jobs report and ISM data caused obvious, immediate problems for rates, but bonds held their ground fairly well all things considered. ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 12:34 PM
While we may not have a great explanation or even the capacity to believe it, nonfarm payrolls came in at 517,000 this morning versus a median forecas...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe
US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intentio...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 11:21 AM
Today's big story is the European bond market's reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The hike was as-expected, but the ECB also ...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:08 PM
Markets Surprisingly Surprised by Unsurprising Powell Comments
We were pretty sure we knew what Powell would...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 11:44 AM
Long gone are the days where the market waits to find out he size of a rate hike/cut. The current regime clearly communicates these things ahead of t...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:19 PM
What to Expect From Fed Day
Markets can see the changes in inflation data and traders are eager to refine th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 8:54 AM
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is an economic report that was never on our radar as a top tier market mover in the past. Then in early 2022, Fed Cha...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 4:40 PM
Skittish Over Data and Central Bankers
With no relevant market movers on the US calendar today, it was notab...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 10:38 AM
Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement. Key e...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:57 PM
5 for 5 on Uneventful Trading Days; Next Week Should be Different
Heading into this week, if we had to guess...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 12:06 PM
The two reports most capable of surprising the market this week were Thursday's GDP and Friday's PCE. While it's always good to maintain some respect...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 4:28 PM
No Major Reaction to Data Means More Focus on Next Week
Thursday morning's economic data provided one of onl...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 10:53 AM
Thursday's opening commentary could very well end up being the closing commentary. We came into the day entertaining the possibility that economic da...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 3:55 PM
Uneventful Week Continues
Next time bond traders have a hard time getting to sleep, they could just read a r...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 11:52 AM
If you'd like to skip right to the end, the week is shaping up to be every bit as inconsequential as anticipated with bonds holding in a fairly narrow...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Small Scale Volatility Against Bigger-Picture Holding Pattern
Bonds took several opportunities to react to e...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 11:03 AM
After having a case of the Mondays yesterday (unclear motivations and range-bound weakness amid low volume and light liquidity) bonds are back in the ...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Have a Case of The Mondays
Unlike the past 3 Mondays, which have seen fairly healthy participation and...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 11:34 AM
Reduced to the most simplistic of considerations, bond market price movement is all about supply and demand. The same is true of just about anything ...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 5:03 PM
Bonds Retreat a Bit. No Compelling Reasons or Implications
Bonds rallied to the best levels in months ear...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 1:01 PM
Since coming off the highest rates in more than a decade in November, bonds ran into resistance just before the end of the year. That resistance coin...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 3:51 PM
Here's What's Up With These Big Swings in MBS Prices
Thursday ended up being a boring, uneventful trading da...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 11:41 AM
So much illiquidity this week... But what does that really mean? Let's break it down...
There are buyers and sellers in the MBS market submitting "...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 4:20 PM
Big Rally Challenges Range Floor. What Next?
Bonds started strong in the overnight session thanks to an unch...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 11:55 AM
There was a fair amount of anticipation over the most recent policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) which came out early in the overnight se...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 3:59 PM
Limited Market Motivations as Traders Wait to Fill in Blanks
There was a palpable absence of relevant source...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 12:15 PM
By the middle of December, bond yields made a convincing move down from decades-long highs and settled in a sideways range on CPI/Fed week. We re-ent...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 3:30 PM
Incidental Weakness Today, But Let's Focus on The Bigger Picture
Bonds tried to stage a mid-day rally, but e...
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