Thu, Aug 5 2021, 4:28 PM
Bonds Definitely Playing Defense Ahead of NFP
Friday's nonfarm payrolls data (NFP) will be more important th...
Thu, Aug 5 2021, 10:02 AM
Bonds have been increasingly willing to react to economic data as we approach the fall months (the time frame in which the Fed's taper announcement be...
Wed, Aug 4 2021, 4:02 PM
Sell-Off Talked Tough But Backed Down When Confronted
On a week that started with a downbeat ISM Manufacturi...
Wed, Aug 4 2021, 10:54 AM
After a quiet, boring Tuesday, Wednesday is bringing the heat. It looked like things would get off to a solid start for bonds after weaker ADP data e...
Tue, Aug 3 2021, 5:15 PM
Inconsequential Trading Day With Some MBS Underperformance
Today was remarkably unremarkable. Volume and vo...
Tue, Aug 3 2021, 11:30 AM
There is always a lull in covid reporting over the weekend as several states no longer publish weekend data. Monday's counts are thus informative as ...
Mon, Aug 2 2021, 3:40 PM
Bonds Surge Into August Despite Headwinds
It was an interesting juxtaposition to see a Fed speaker talking a...
Mon, Aug 2 2021, 10:59 AM
Due to the presence of bigger ticket economic data (among other things), it was fair to expect more volatility in the current week compared to the pre...
Fri, Jul 30 2021, 4:12 PM
Strong, Calm Week. Next Week Might Be Different
Saying "next week might be different" is of questionable va...
Fri, Jul 30 2021, 11:00 AM
The sun also rises and inflation also misses its forecast! After several months of reasonably big upside surprises, core PCE inflation finally undersh...
Thu, Jul 29 2021, 3:56 PM
Slightly Weaker Today, But Still In The Recent Range
Thursday proved to be a very forgettable session for th...
Thu, Jul 29 2021, 10:47 AM
With the Fed having confirmed their expected stance (closer to tapering, tolerant of short-term inflation, and plenty of pandemic-related uncertainty ...
Wed, Jul 28 2021, 4:34 PM
Fed Hints At Tapering, But Bonds Don't Care
Why are rates lower despite the Fed announcement taking another ...
Wed, Jul 28 2021, 2:01 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jul 28 2021, 11:06 AM
Like 8 other Wednesdays each year, today brings a healthy dose of volatility risk from the Fed Announcement and press conference (note: this is one of...
Tue, Jul 27 2021, 4:01 PM
Deceptively Interesting Trading Range Ahead of Fed
After a move up from 1.25 to nearly 1.30% on Monday, 10yr...
Tue, Jul 27 2021, 10:17 AM
After having gained so much over the past 4 months (not to mention the removal of the adverse market fee), and with a Fed announcement due out tomorro...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 6:20 PM
t was a slow trading day for the most part until the last 90 minutes. Until then, MBS and Treasuries were generally flat. As the day wound down, yie...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 10:05 AM
Heading into the weekend, the delta variant continued driving a surge in U.S. covid case counts with Friday's 118k+ being the highest day-over-day inc...
Fri, Jul 23 2021, 3:19 PM
Ending on an Equivocal Note Ahead of Fed Week
If we look through the small-scale volatility throughout the w...
Fri, Jul 23 2021, 10:26 AM
After a stellar Monday and a big reversal on Tuesday, Wednesday stands out as the week's big shift back toward last week's trading range. Today's ses...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 4:03 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient With Help From ECB
This morning's ECB announcement proved to be moderately bond-frien...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 10:20 AM
This morning's ECB announcement proved to be moderately bond-friendly. Combined with weaker Jobless Claims data, it's been enough to keep bonds inside...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 5:01 PM
Defensive Shift Ahead of ECB Announcement
Coming into the week, there was some speculation that Monday's bon...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 9:23 AM
With a moderate dose of weakness in the overnight session, 10yr yields have quickly found themselves on the doorstep of 1.25%--a level that marked the...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 3:24 PM
Intraday Weakness vs Bigger Picture Strength
There comes a time in the midst of an aggressive snowball rally...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 10:00 AM
Even before this week, the mid-2021 bond rally exceeded many expectations with the 10yr yield's brief love tap of the 1.25% level last week. It's onl...
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 3:37 PM
Big Bond Rally Just Got Bigger
U.S. traders fired up the screens this morning to see a substantial bond rall...
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 9:13 AM
The week is off to a very strong start as heavy selling in stocks coincided with a flight to safety in bonds during the overnight session. Treasuries...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 5:09 PM
Quiet Bond Market Leaves Focus on Demise of Adverse Market Fee
Seemingly out of the blue, the much-maligned ...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 9:49 AM
As bonds have recovered from the high yields seen in March, the tendency has been for rally weeks to end with a bit of defensiveness on Fridays. This...
Thu, Jul 15 2021, 3:06 PM
Bonds Keep Running The Table Without Much Motivation
The absence of overt, discrete motivation is one of the...
Thu, Jul 15 2021, 10:34 AM
After Wednesday's respectable rally, we may as well give up the search for too much discrete causality in the bond market. While we can definitely ob...
Wed, Jul 14 2021, 4:24 PM
Bonds Recover as Friendly Powell Trumps Inflation Data (sort of...)
Producer prices surged in this morning's...
Wed, Jul 14 2021, 10:03 AM
The bond market doesn't tend to care about wholesale inflation (PPI) relative to the mainstream indices (CPI, PCE), but a number as high as 5.6% might...
Tue, Jul 13 2021, 3:43 PM
How Does Today's Big Sell-Off Affect The Bigger Picture?
Bonds sold off somewhat aggressively this afternoon...
Tue, Jul 13 2021, 9:16 AM
We came into today expecting some asymmetric risk in favor of the bond market due to the recent tendency to take inflation numbers in stride. In simp...
Mon, Jul 12 2021, 3:56 PM
Still on a Fence as Bonds Work Through Early-Week Risks
We closed out last week on a fence about the short t...
Mon, Jul 12 2021, 9:18 AM
Last week ended on a bittersweet note as a surprisingly strong rally was met with big push-back on Friday. The jury was out as to whether we were wit...
Fri, Jul 9 2021, 2:23 PM
Bigger Picture Bounce or Just Another Pre-Weekend Pause
Bonds were moderately to sharply weaker overnight an...
Fri, Jul 9 2021, 9:17 AM
Big changes in the economic landscape bring big opportunities to consider whether bonds are priced where they should be. The entire spring and summer...
Thu, Jul 8 2021, 4:20 PM
Impressive Move to Longer-Term Lows. What's Next?
The centerpiece of today's global trading session was an ...
Thu, Jul 8 2021, 8:59 AM
A more and more vocal contingent of traders and analysts began calling for "1.25% before 1.75%" over the past 2 months and they were rewarded overnigh...
Wed, Jul 7 2021, 4:04 PM
Traders Shrug Off Fed Minutes to Keep buying Bonds
Hindsight is 20/20 and it now seems clear that traders we...
Wed, Jul 7 2021, 9:38 AM
Whether it's an imperfect catch-all term like "tradeflows," or a similarly imprecise reference to the "unseen hand," bonds often find motivation from ...
Tue, Jul 6 2021, 4:00 PM
Strong Start to a Slow Week
Bonds rallied today, both before and after the weak ISM Non-Manufacturing data. ...
Tue, Jul 6 2021, 9:36 AM
2021 began with heavy selling pressure in bonds following the Georgia senate election (which gave full control of congress and the White House to one ...
Fri, Jul 2 2021, 3:34 PM
What To Make of The Post-NFP Rally
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) beat forecasts (850k vs 700k), which is normally s...
Fri, Jul 2 2021, 9:03 AM
While the headline for nonfarm payrolls (850k vs 700k f'cast) seems like cause for concern at first glance, the bond market is digesting it well so fa...
Thu, Jul 1 2021, 3:14 PM
Uneventful Start to Q3, But Tomorrow is a Wild Card
There's always some risk that the first trading day of a...
MBS Market Alerts
