Is The Top In?

No one had much to say or think about JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) over the past few decades, but it has risen to an increasingly prominent market moving role in the 2023.  Today was the latest example as a big miss resulted in a big win for the bond market.  Taken together with last Wednesday's PMI-driven gains, 10yr yields are a full 25bps off last week's highs.  That's the kind of reversal that makes people start thinking about longer term tops.  So was that the top?  The answer depends on the extent to which you can accept the Fed's "data dependent" thesis (and if so, it depends even more on how the upcoming data actually comes out). 

Econ Data / Events
    • Case Shiller Home Prices
      • m/m = 0.9 vs 0.6 f'cast, 1.5 prev
      • y/y = -1.2 vs -1.3 f'cast, -1.7 prev
    • FHFA Home Prices
      • m/m:  0.3 vs 0.7 prev
      • y/y:  3.1 vs 2.8 prev
    • JOLTS
      • 8.827m vs 9.465m f'cast
Market Movement Recap
08:51 AM

Stronger in Asia, but steady selling in Europe.  10yr up 2.8bps at 4.232.  MBS down just over an eighth, but some weakness is due to illiquidity. 

10:15 AM

Big gains after JOLTS. 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.151. MBS up 7 ticks (.22).

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