Tue, Oct 19 2021, 4:30 PM
The Trend is Not Your Friend
October has been one of those unpleasant months where bonds have several reason...
Tue, Oct 19 2021, 10:01 AM
It's an interesting time for rates because the market collectively knows where it should be going (i.e. toward even higher rates), yet seems to be dra...
Mon, Oct 18 2021, 4:20 PM
Decent Recovery After a Rocky Start
Bonds sold off right at the start of the overnight session with yields n...
Mon, Oct 18 2021, 10:05 AM
We typically don't talk too much about volume. It doesn't much matter for the purpose of tracking intraday reprice risk because the price is the pric...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 3:08 PM
Steady Selling All Day For Bonds
Bonds may have rallied on Mon-Thu, but Friday's theme has been quite differ...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 8:57 AM
Thursday brought more gains for bonds, but not the kind that led us to expect a continuation of the rally. Rather, we argued the improvement was bett...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 4:25 PM
Can The Good Times Keep Rolling?
Referring to the past 3 days as "good times" is questionable. Perhaps "tim...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 9:26 AM
Headlines like "Indecision Setting In" have ironically been seen at the start of some days that ended up being big movers, so apologies in advance if ...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 3:45 PM
No Floors Harmed in Defense of The Ceiling
With yields vaulting higher last week, we've been looking for any...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 9:45 AM
There has been more than a little bit of willingness on the part of the bond market to react to Fed's rate hike outlook. This began in earnest after ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 4:15 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auction; Why MBS Are Lagging
Bonds began the day weaker, but improved steadily ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 9:26 AM
Last week was unpleasant for the bond market. Yields tested and then broke above the technical ceiling at 1.56%, ultimately making it as high as 1.62...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 4:01 PM
What's Up With Super Weak NFP Tanking The Bond Market?!
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expect...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 11:07 AM
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expected (194k vs 500k f'cast), but that had almost no impact on the bond market in the first hour of tr...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 3:29 PM
Highest Yields in Months. Could Jobs Report Make it Worse?
After a somewhat hopeful bounce in yesterday's t...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 9:57 AM
It remains to be seen what impact tomorrow's jobs report might have given that it would take an atrociously weak number to derail the Fed's November t...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 4:26 PM
Bonds Vote To Hold The Range Despite Stronger Data
10yr yields tested multi-month highs overnight (1.573), b...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 9:36 AM
1.573% on a 10yr US Treasury Note?! While this still isn't the place a yield-seeking investor would park their money (inflation-adjusted returns at a...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 4:35 PM
Rates Move Back Toward Recent Highs.
Bonds started the day only modestly higher after a fairly uneventful ov...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 11:28 AM
Modest weakness on Monday meant the door was still open for bonds to challenge the lower boundary of the higher rate range seen last week. Today's tr...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 4:16 PM
Could be Better. Could be Worse
Bonds ended last week on a strong note with yields challenging the lowest le...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 9:57 AM
Bonds managed to consolidate by the end of last week after yields surged to the highest levels since June. They're now faced with the choice to acqui...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 4:43 PM
Modestly Strong, Uneventful Trading Day, Version 3
Last week conditioned us for Drama. Monday and Tuesday su...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 11:32 AM
Today is off to a relatively tame start with yields trading in the narrowest range of the week so far. It also marks the 3rd straight day of modest r...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 4:11 PM
Do Today's Gains Mean The Selling Spree is Over?
After some initial weakness brought 10yr yields back in lin...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 9:26 AM
In case you missed it, things have been bad for bonds since last Thursday. A combination of factors conspired to push yields higher at the fastest pac...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 4:17 PM
Token Rally a Small Concession For Recent Selling Spree
After 4 straight days of heavy selling pressure, bon...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 10:39 AM
When bonds sell off as decisively as they have over the last 4 trading sessions, it's only a matter of time before buyers push back. The bigger the s...
Tue, Sep 28 2021, 4:50 PM
Here's What's NOT Moving The Bond Market
Another day, another surprisingly brisk selling spree in the bond m...
Tue, Sep 28 2021, 10:02 AM
Momentum, macroeconomic considerations, and Fed policy continue to dominate the bond market since last Thursday as traders are swept up in the widespr...
Mon, Sep 27 2021, 4:29 PM
Losses Continue Despite Decent 5yr Treasury Auction
Today's 5yr Treasury auction was respectable with the in...
Mon, Sep 27 2021, 9:50 AM
At the end of last week, we noted the looming Treasury auction cycle at the start of this week. Due to calendar constraints, it's earlier than normal...
Fri, Sep 24 2021, 3:37 PM
Range Breakout or New Trend Channel?
It was an interesting trading session in the bond market as Treasury yi...
Fri, Sep 24 2021, 10:47 AM
As early as 4 months ago, we'd been eyeing late September as do or die time for the low rate environment. By early September, we had a very clear pic...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 2:41 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off?
It's not nearly as surprising to see bond yields breaking technical cei...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 10:03 AM
Wednesday's reaction to the Fed was essentially a non-reaction with yields ending the day very close to pre-Fed levels. Traders were more willing to ...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 4:31 PM
Powell Effectively Confirms November Taper Barring NFP Catastrophe
Bonds reacted well to the initial Fed ann...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 2:01 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 10:02 AM
We've been pining for this particular Fed day for weeks, at least. In fact, as early as June 1st, we pointed out that Fed speakers seemed to suggest ...
Tue, Sep 21 2021, 3:54 PM
"Inside Day" Placeholder Ahead of Wednesday's Main Event
The AM commentary revisited and reiterated the cons...
Tue, Sep 21 2021, 9:54 AM
Trading ranges and consolidation patterns can make for tedious discussion when they're well-behaved for weeks on end. We began discussing the current...
Mon, Sep 20 2021, 4:18 PM
Surprise Snowball Rally as Stocks Swoon Over Global Risks
When it comes to stocks vs bonds, pundits generall...
Mon, Sep 20 2021, 9:53 AM
Evergrande is a Chinese real estate company that has been circling the drain for months. During that time, press reports increasingly suggest that Ev...
Fri, Sep 17 2021, 4:33 PM
Traders Move to Sidelines Ahead of Fed Announcement
September's big Fed announcement doesn't hit until next ...
Fri, Sep 17 2021, 10:07 AM
The headline is a bit dramatic, but not untrue. 10yr yields were as high as 1.351 yesterday--just a moderate day of weakness away from the 2-month hi...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 3:54 PM
Uneventful Afternoon After Strong Data Sends Yields Higher
Today's key development was the duo of much stron...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 9:08 AM
Bonds are starting the day on the back foot as Retail Sales rose 0.7% despite a median forecast of -0.8. The Philly Fed numbers also surged past 18.8...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 4:08 PM
Sideways Vibes Won't Give Up Just Yet
Bonds made a move yesterday with yields breaking below the lower bound...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 9:57 AM
Yesterday's most notable accomplishment for the bond market was the breakout of the prevailing consolidation range (aka "pennant," to use a technical ...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 7:04 PM
arlier this year, the FHFA and Treasury amended Treasury's preferred stock repurchase agreements (PSPAs) to put limits on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (...
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