Fri, Jan 22 2021, 4:24 PM
Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note
It's rare to see non-holidays Fridays in January be quite as underwhel...
Fri, Jan 22 2021, 9:25 AM
The nature of the pandemic has made for some very mechanical and orderly market movement. The best example of this in the bond market is the "trend...
Thu, Jan 21 2021, 3:32 PM
Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain
Yields were breaking higher as the domestic session be...
Thu, Jan 21 2021, 9:56 AM
The GA senate election shift is old news. It did the damage it was always likely to do, but bonds had a good show of support by the end of the follow...
Wed, Jan 20 2021, 9:50 AM
Does inauguration day matter for the bond market? Not as such, no. To be sure, the changing of the guard in D.C. is indeed a big deal for the bond...
Tue, Jan 19 2021, 3:51 PM
Uneventful Start This Week; Next Move Remains Debatable
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied ...
Tue, Jan 19 2021, 9:39 AM
Last week's bond trading served the role of establishing a ceiling for yields after their biggest spike in nearly a year (and the case could be made t...
Fri, Jan 15 2021, 4:42 PM
Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss)
Relative to the spectrum of possibilities, endin...
Fri, Jan 15 2021, 9:27 AM
After the GA senate elections, the bond market immediately knew it needed to prepare for additional stimulus, even if moderate democratic voices might...
Thu, Jan 14 2021, 4:03 PM
Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's Stimulus Details
As we discussed yesterday, the strong mid-week...
Thu, Jan 14 2021, 9:48 AM
A few hours after markets closed yesterday, news began coming out regarding a Biden aide mentioning tonight's stimulus proposal would be in the $2 tri...
Wed, Jan 13 2021, 4:25 PM
Important Victory For Bonds, and Another Battle Ahead
Rates rallied today. Despite a positive reaction to a...
Wed, Jan 13 2021, 9:28 AM
With yesterday offering the first legitimate push back against the recent sell-off, today becomes one of three critically important days in establishi...
Tue, Jan 12 2021, 4:16 PM
Much-Anticipated Correction Finally Arrives. Now What?
This morning's alert noted a scary scenario playing ...
Tue, Jan 12 2021, 10:04 AM
This morning's alert notes that the bond market is in the midst of one of its scarier scenarios. The ingredients are as follows: a long run in a reco...
Mon, Jan 11 2021, 4:51 PM
Selling Spree Continues; MBS Underperforming
Earlier in the day, Treasuries looked to be selling off at a sl...
Mon, Jan 11 2021, 9:33 AM
0.96% was a well-established ceiling for 10yr yields in November and December. Despite numerous intraday breaks, yields only managed to close higher ...
Fri, Jan 8 2021, 3:44 PM
Bonds Determined To Sell Despite Weaker NFP
The bond market considered rallying in response to this morning'...
Fri, Jan 8 2021, 9:40 AM
While it's essentially a given the bigger stimulus is on the way with democrats controlling the senate (thus implying more Treasury issuance and a qui...
Thu, Jan 7 2021, 5:17 PM
Negative Momentum Remains Threatening Ahead of Jobs Report
We came into today hoping (but not necessarily ex...
Thu, Jan 7 2021, 9:38 AM
10yr yields were at the bottom edge of a months-long uptrend heading into the Georgia senate election. One result would have helped them break out to...
Wed, Jan 6 2021, 4:49 PM
Crazy Day For Bonds. Is The Worst Over?
For 2 straight months, and especially over the past few weeks, we'v...
Wed, Jan 6 2021, 9:35 AM
For 2 straight months, and especially over the past few weeks, we've been calling out the Georgia senate election as the biggest ticket market mover f...
Tue, Jan 5 2021, 3:53 PM
Tomorrow Could Be a Very Big Day For Bonds
Bonds experienced a bit of weakness today, but 10yr yields bounce...
Tue, Jan 5 2021, 9:13 AM
Forget the economy. Forget covid. Forget Fed policy. Those things will all be back to move the bond market fairly soon, but first, there will be an...
Mon, Jan 4 2021, 4:17 PM
Markets Back in Action, Hurrying Up and Waiting
Bonds were back in action today although you'd hardly know i...
Mon, Jan 4 2021, 9:14 AM
The presidential election happened 2 months ago and since then, bonds really haven't moved other than in response to the Pfizer vaccine news on Nov 9t...
Thu, Dec 31 2020, 1:55 PM
Token Gains, Light Volume, Early Close
Bond market focus remains on the Georgia senate run-off election day ...
Thu, Dec 31 2020, 9:24 AM
With Europe and Japan out on holiday, bonds had the lightest overnight session of the year today, and domestic hours won't be much better apart from a...
Wed, Dec 30 2020, 2:43 PM
Bonds Sticking to Year-End Script
Bonds did a perfect job sticking to their year-end script today. It reads...
Wed, Dec 30 2020, 8:57 AM
Election years always bring increased uncertainty to financial markets--some more than others. This is definitely one of those years--not because of ...
Tue, Dec 29 2020, 3:52 PM
Bonds on Cruise Control Unless Senate Approves Stimulus Upgrade
Barring an unexpected vote (and passage) of ...
Tue, Dec 29 2020, 9:39 AM
With Trump signing the covid relief and government funding bill last week, the bond market had seemingly moved past its downside risks as they related...
Mon, Dec 28 2020, 4:00 PM
Uneventful Day Despite Covid Relief Bill
The big news at the end of last week was Trump's decision to veto t...
Mon, Dec 28 2020, 8:50 AM
The big news at the end of last week was Trump's decision to veto the defense bill (which, in turn, meant a veto of the broader stimulus/spending bill...
Thu, Dec 24 2020, 12:51 PM
Bonds Wearing Holiday Clothes Despite Trump Veto and Brexit
Along with the Friday after Thanksgiving, Christ...
Thu, Dec 24 2020, 9:58 AM
Bonds will close early today (2pm ET) and will be fully closed tomorrow. Along with the Friday after Thanksgiving, this is typically the lightest tra...
Wed, Dec 23 2020, 4:07 PM
Brexit Behind Selling Spree, But Bonds Defend The Ceiling
While headlines regarding the potential veto of th...
Wed, Dec 23 2020, 8:30 AM
Today's econ calendar is quite a bit bigger than normal. It's also bigger than it would be if this was just any old week with a full 5 trading days. ...
Tue, Dec 22 2020, 3:38 PM
Volatility is Possible, But It Wasn't Possible Today
Bonds have decidedly engaged in a stereotypical year-en...
Tue, Dec 22 2020, 10:02 AM
With the passage of the stimulus/spending bill last night, the bond market cleared its last major hurdle for the week/month/quarter/year. By the time...
Mon, Dec 21 2020, 4:23 PM
Bonds Still Sideways, But MBS Underperform
Bond yields and stock prices bottomed at the same time in the ove...
Fri, Dec 18 2020, 4:58 PM
2020 In The Books Apart From Token Stimulus Reaction
By the end of the trading day, congress was seemingly n...
Fri, Dec 18 2020, 9:51 AM
Next week, the bond market will only be open for 3.5 days. In that time, the bond market will see a majority of its 'year-end' trades (asset allocati...
Thu, Dec 17 2020, 4:03 PM
Seasonally Sideways Sans Stimulus
With Fed day behind us, the much-anticipated stimulus/spending bill is all...
Thu, Dec 17 2020, 8:58 AM
The combination of a friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell and an unfriendly absence of change to the bond buying policy left the bond marke...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 4:30 PM
Fed Abstains From Bond-Buying Change, But Powell Delivers
Speculation about whether or not the Fed would mak...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 9:33 AM
Fiscal stimulus has been a hot topic for the bond market since the pandemic first kicked into a high enough gear to require fiscal support for the US ...
Tue, Dec 15 2020, 4:59 PM
What Exactly Might The Fed Do Tomorrow and Why Should We Care?
MBS suffered, somewhat, from supply/demand is...
MBS Market Alerts
