Tue, Jan 4 2022, 9:43 AM
Tokyo and London are back in the office today after yesterday's holiday closures. EU yields moved modestly lower from their highest levels in roughly...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 3:59 PM
Unhappy New Year For Bonds So Far
The first trading day of the new year ended up being one of the worst in m...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 9:54 AM
Both Tokyo and London were closed overnight, which didn't do anything to help the light liquidity environment of the winter holidays. Domestic accoun...
Fri, Dec 31 2021, 10:30 AM
It's a sign of the times that the only conversations on MBS Live's MBS Community pertain to this morning's Encompass outage. Actually, it's a sign of ...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 3:22 PM
Bonds Snap Back Into Holiday Mode
Wednesday's abrupt sell-off increasingly looks like the market's way of ge...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 10:19 AM
From the early days of the pandemic, one of the most important realities to consider was that of the eventual recovery, both from the most abject phas...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 5:10 PM
What's Up With The Big Sell-Off in Bonds?
The omicron narrative is one reason being tossed around for today'...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 8:57 AM
Treasuries trade almost 24 hours a day (assuming London and Tokyo are not out on holiday), but if the domestic bond market has an unofficial opening b...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 4:28 PM
Every Bit As Quiet As It Was Supposed To Be
There's really no way to predict the future when it comes to rat...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 11:21 AM
Like Monday, bonds traded flat to slightly stronger in Asia, were closed in London, popped a bit higher in early domestic trading, and are now droppin...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 3:23 PM
Bonds Sticking to Uneventful Script
There was little to observe and even less to report on today's bon marke...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 12:58 PM
While bonds aren't closed for business this week, it wouldn't much matter if they were--at least not for the average mortgage rate watcher. That's no...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 4:02 PM
Sideways, Boring, and Slightly Stronger
10yr futures contract volume was roughly 600k by 3pm. That's on par...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 11:05 AM
If you've grown tired of hearing about holiday related illiquidity in the bond market or you otherwise are fully up to speed on its implications, you'...
Tue, Dec 21 2021, 4:41 PM
Incidental Weakness
This morning's commentary covers everything that needs to be said in today's closing com...
Tue, Dec 21 2021, 10:20 AM
One of the best things to keep in mind not just for financial markets but for life in general is that explanations are rarely black and white when it ...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 4:54 PM
Small Scale Volatility Leaves Bonds Slightly Weaker
The day began on a modestly positive note and ended with...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 11:11 AM
Despite a bit of 2-way trading, bonds are starting the day in slightly stronger territory. Pandemic concerns remain the most obvious source of inspir...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 3:50 PM
Mixed Performance Amid Light Liquidity and Fed Comments
The bond market shifted into a predictable gear for ...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 11:29 AM
3 hawkish central bank announcements on Wed/Thu have been no match for the bullish impulses at the end of the week. These include but are not limited...
Thu, Dec 16 2021, 4:55 PM
Bonds Defy Logic, Rallying Nicely After Central Banks Tighten
There are only so many ways to explain what ha...
Thu, Dec 16 2021, 9:45 AM
If you're not familiar with Fezzik from The Princess Bride, you have more important things to do than read about what's going on in the bond market (b...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 4:22 PM
Surprisingly Resilient After Fed Doubles Tapering Pace
After implementing the tapering plan 6 short weeks ag...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 11:26 AM
By the time we finally arrive at a much-anticipated Fed day, there's not much to do in the morning hours apart from the proverbial "hurry up and wait....
Tue, Dec 14 2021, 4:10 PM
Calm Today. Bigger Volatility a Risk For Tomorrow
Treasuries began the domestic session in modestly weaker t...
Tue, Dec 14 2021, 9:14 AM
The week before last (the one where omicron resulted in faster-paced stock losses and bond gains) 10yr yields ran into some resistance on their journe...
Mon, Dec 13 2021, 4:29 PM
Weekend News Cycle Hurts Stocks, Helps Bonds
Whether it's bothersome restrictions domestically or more emerg...
Mon, Dec 13 2021, 8:59 AM
The last 2 weeks have seen elevated volatility for the bond market. Omicron concerns took yields lower, but the gains reversed as concerns moderated....
Fri, Dec 10 2021, 3:53 PM
What's Up With Today's MBS Volatility?
MBS prices suffered from two infrequent sources of volatility today. ...
Fri, Dec 10 2021, 12:08 PM
This week's economic data headliner was this morning's CPI report. It showed core inflation at 4.9% as expected. Had the number been 2bps higher or ...
Thu, Dec 9 2021, 4:08 PM
Refreshingly Resilient Despite Bumpy 30yr Auction
There have been a few flashes of resilience in the bond ma...
Thu, Dec 9 2021, 10:01 AM
In yesterday's overnight session, European bonds were the key driver of US bond market weakness. Now in today's overnight session, they've had the op...
Wed, Dec 8 2021, 4:16 PM
Losses Continue for Treasuries, But Not MBS
Treasury yields were set to start the day lower before upbeat om...
Wed, Dec 8 2021, 9:14 AM
If last week could be reduced to a single theme, it would be that of omicron concerns driving a bond rally and stock sell-off. This week's theme is o...
Tue, Dec 7 2021, 4:41 PM
Bonds Remain Under Pressure, But MBS Outperformed
Bonds managed to remain sideways during AM hours. In fact...
Tue, Dec 7 2021, 9:41 AM
Last week's story was simple: unknowns and risks surrounding omicron prompted traders to shed risk by selling stocks and buying bonds. Unfortunately ...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 4:26 PM
Bonds Sell-Off, But MBS Outperform
The week began decently enough with bonds holding most of last week's gai...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 11:41 AM
Although MBS have been underperforming, the broader trend in the bond market remains in good shape--especially in light of current headwinds. The mos...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Reversal in Bonds After Stocks Sell Off
Bonds paradoxically sold off after this morning's weaker jobs nu...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 10:55 AM
It's NFP day for the bond market although we have to ask ourselves what that really means in a world where the Fed has explicitly stated that it's see...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 4:18 PM
MBS Give Up Yesterday's Gains Despite Decent Start
MBS have a bit of a problem. In the past week, they've g...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 4:32 PM
Weaker Start, Stronger Finish
Volatility has been elevated for the bond market in the past 4 weeks and espec...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 11:09 AM
It's an interesting, confusing, and tumultuous moment for financial markets as traders digest an unprecedented confluence of relevant events. Two eve...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Swings as Covid Squares Off Against The Fed
It was omicron vs the Fed today and bonds had a front row se...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 10:25 AM
Today's reaction function for the market is very simple and very obvious. Shortly after midnight, Moderna's CEO made some discouraging comments about...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 3:27 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Shaky Start
This morning we found ourselves in the uncomfortable position of watchi...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 11:12 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week retaining a majority of last Friday's mega rally. The omicron-inspired gains were big enough that 10yr yields ar...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 2:50 PM
Covid Variant Causes Massive Market Reaction
This morning it was B.1.1.529. By the afternoon, the WHO label...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 11:34 AM
Remember July? Covid was a fading memory and the light was clearly visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Then came Delta. It served as a painf...
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