Thu, Jul 7 2022, 4:35 PM
Bond Bounce Continues Ahead of Jobs Report and Next Week's CPI
Apart from a brief breakout in mid-June, rate...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 11:18 AM
Momentum indicators are staples of technical analysis for a reason. While the exact timing and magnitude of market movement will always defy accurate...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 4:31 PM
Sharp Losses Offer a Reminder About The Range
We first began to discuss the prevailing rate narrative on May...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:41 AM
The 2nd half of the last 2 months has been good for the bond market, as long as you're willing to overlook the fact that both multi-week rallies requi...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 3:36 PM
Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance
Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading ...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 9:47 AM
Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns... that is the headline at the moment--not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire glo...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:17 PM
Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings
Bonds had 3 fewer hours to trade on Friday, but ended up coverin...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 11:54 AM
Bonds were tentatively ready to confirm a top in yields and runaway inflation in May, but hotter CPI in the Eurozone and the US caused one last revisi...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:33 PM
Bonds Get The Rally They Deserved in Exchange for Cooler PCE Data
This week's data focus was all about today...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 11:54 AM
PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June). So far this morni...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 4:41 PM
Bonds Bolstered by Big Swings in Inflation Data and Expectations
US bonds found several sources of inspirati...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 12:13 PM
Sometimes bonds head into a trading day knowing that some key event(s) will hold the potential to push rates decisively higher or lower depending on t...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:50 PM
Surprisingly Resilient as Range-Finding Expedition Continues
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but qui...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:03 PM
Bond Market Defensiveness Justified by Weak Auction
Coming into the domestic session, bonds were weaker with...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 12:31 PM
As rates moved up from the lows seen at the end of May, we viewed it as the confirmation of the broader sideways momentum that we hoped would replace ...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 4:28 PM
Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory
As the day began, bonds flirted with the idea of break...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:36 AM
Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that successfully confirmed...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 3:53 PM
Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength
MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point betwe...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 12:27 PM
A slew of PMI reports (Purchasing Manager Indices, which are essentially more granular, more timely, and only slightly more focused versions of GDP) s...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
Despite Onslaught of Fed Speakers, Bonds Hold Solid Gains
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:30 AM
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields... All of the above moved steadily lower in th...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 11:52 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week just barely below the mid-point of last week's big, volatile trading range. Getting here required a moderate amou...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 11:26 AM
It's been the phrase we love to hate since late May when bond yields encountered firm resistance as they failed to break below 2.7% for 4 straight day...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:23 PM
Treasuries Thunder Back Positive Territory; MBS Underperform
This morning's headline suggested a sideways, v...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 12:24 PM
As rates made their way lower in the month of May, our ongoing thesis was that gains would be limited by the fact that a true rally required many mont...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 4:47 PM
Big Victory After Powell Says Toss Up Between 50 and 75 Next Meeting
Whether we're talking about the past week, month or year, the war continues...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 2:01 PM
Although overall Overall economic activity edged appears to have picked up after edging down in the in the first quarter, household spending ...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 11:24 AM
It's hard to think of too many other Fed announcements with more potential volatility than today's. 4 short business days ago, the market knew exactl...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 4:53 PM
Lock or Float Ahead of The Fed?
Ideally, you've been locking at app all month as the only argument for float...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 12:00 PM
***REQUIRED READING for anyone who doesn't fully understand why the 4.5 UMBS coupon is far better to follow than the 5.0 intraday (for now).***
The...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:07 PM
One of The 5 Worst Days in Over a Decade
At one point today, bonds had lost more ground than any other day i...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 12:53 PM
Bonds had two options after last Friday's sell-off. They could either take a few lumps and get back to the business of looking for a long-term ceilin...
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 4:04 PM
Bonds Obliterated by CPI Reaction and Fed Fear
If the bond market is forced to digest a surprisingly hot inf...
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 12:42 PM
As feared, today's CPI data has proven to be the most capable market mover of the week, by a wide margin. Unfortunately, that volatility is playing o...
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 3:37 PM
Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI
The end of the week is marked by a battle with 3-letter ab...
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 11:39 AM
As has been the case for most of the past 2 weeks, European bonds have been arguing for a move to higher rates and US bonds have been reluctantly foll...
Wed, Jun 8 2022, 4:13 PM
Yields Quickly Forced to Defend Monday's Ceiling
Bonds started off on the defensive today with a weaker hand...
Wed, Jun 8 2022, 11:55 AM
After a bumpy start to the week on Monday, the bond market is still trying to define a sideways range that serves as a waiting room where traders will...
Tue, Jun 7 2022, 3:24 PM
Is Today's Bounce Enough to Reinforce the Range?
After 5 straight trading days of weakness and 3 stubborn da...
Tue, Jun 7 2022, 9:43 AM
At the risk of repeating ourselves regarding bond market trends of the past few months, 2022's initial rate rout clearly gave way to something more 's...
Mon, Jun 6 2022, 4:19 PM
Bonds Surprised by Supply Even Though They Knew Supply Was Coming
Whether in reference to the regularly sche...
Mon, Jun 6 2022, 11:49 AM
The week begins with bonds adding to recent losses as yields move back toward the top of the prevailing sideways range. There are several ways to app...
Fri, Jun 3 2022, 4:18 PM
Why Bonds Reacted to Such a Small Beat in The Jobs Data
In today's jobs report, headline payrolls came in at...
Thu, Jun 2 2022, 4:39 PM
Do Bonds Care About Jobs Data Again?
Yesterday it was the ISM Manufacturing data that moved the bond market....
Thu, Jun 2 2022, 11:44 AM
For those that prefer not to overcomplicate things, the current bond market environment can be summed up with one quick concept: rates have broadly le...
Wed, Jun 1 2022, 4:10 PM
Ceiling Looking Too Low After ISM Data Reaction
Yields may have failed to break below a floor of 2.72% last ...
Wed, Jun 1 2022, 9:45 AM
10yr yields weren't able to break convincingly below 2.72% after multiple attempts in the previous week. Friday's final attempt was definitively crus...
Tue, May 31 2022, 4:31 PM
Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains
The last 3 weeks of May were like an oasis in what has otherwise...
Tue, May 31 2022, 11:51 AM
10yr yields bounced at or near 2.72% for 4 straight days heading into the end of last week. Now this morning, they're sharply higher and already abov...
Fri, May 27 2022, 4:20 PM
"Little-Changed" Friday, Both For Bonds and Inflation
Today begins with the much-anticipated PCE inflation d...
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