Fri, Jul 2 2021, 3:34 PM
What To Make of The Post-NFP Rally
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) beat forecasts (850k vs 700k), which is normally s...
Fri, Jul 2 2021, 9:03 AM
While the headline for nonfarm payrolls (850k vs 700k f'cast) seems like cause for concern at first glance, the bond market is digesting it well so fa...
Thu, Jul 1 2021, 3:14 PM
Uneventful Start to Q3, But Tomorrow is a Wild Card
There's always some risk that the first trading day of a...
Thu, Jul 1 2021, 9:36 AM
The simple concept of timing is often underappreciated as a market mover. For instance, 820am and 3pm ET can often be sources of volatility simply be...
Wed, Jun 30 2021, 4:11 PM
Failed Breakout Puts More Emphasis on End-of-Week Events
Notice that the headline didn't invoke "the jobs re...
Wed, Jun 30 2021, 9:41 AM
Some people may pine for Fridays due to the end of a work week, or perhaps as the start of an extended weekend (as is the case with the impending exam...
Tue, Jun 29 2021, 4:10 PM
Strong Data, But Even Stronger Sideways Grind
Bonds started the day in slightly weaker territory but moved v...
Tue, Jun 29 2021, 9:21 AM
Since the 2nd week of June, the bond market has been operating in a fairly narrow range with trading momentum being largely flat in the bigger picture...
Mon, Jun 28 2021, 4:38 PM
Monday Giveth
Summertime weekend trading dynamics are sadly a source of motivation for bond markets--especia...
Mon, Jun 28 2021, 10:39 AM
This week brings good potential for volatility as Friday represents the confluence of several individual events that are normally worth some volatilit...
Fri, Jun 25 2021, 11:56 AM
Small, Defensive Shift Heading Into The Weekend
The highest core inflation in decades proved to be no big de...
Fri, Jun 25 2021, 10:07 AM
Much like the CPI data 2 weeks ago, today's PCE data showed the highest core inflation in decades. In fact, we'd have to go back almost 3 decades when...
Thu, Jun 24 2021, 3:26 PM
Bonds Snooze Through Data and Infrastructure Bill
The day began with a morning of lackluster econ data being...
Thu, Jun 24 2021, 10:22 AM
This week's supply of economic data is rapidly dwindling and we've yet to see a bond market reaction worth writing home about. This morning's crop pr...
Wed, Jun 23 2021, 3:58 PM
Sideways Grind Means More Focus on Next Jobs Report
As bonds continue to distance themselves from last week'...
Wed, Jun 23 2021, 9:25 AM
If Yesterday's big to-do was Fed Chair Powell's testimony, today's will be the 5yr Treasury auction. Notably, Powell didn't have a big impact. His c...
Tue, Jun 22 2021, 5:05 PM
No Whammies From Powell. Bonds Like It
Today's only notable calendar item was the congressional testimony fr...
Tue, Jun 22 2021, 10:50 AM
The Fed's messaging is in a state of flux to some extent, as they move away from the "full speed ahead until further notice" and toward an evolving co...
Mon, Jun 21 2021, 4:23 PM
Treasury Trading Trends Coming and Going
Way back in early 2021, steepening was all the rage. That refers t...
Mon, Jun 21 2021, 11:24 AM
Last week was volatile for bonds with trepidation heading into (and out of) the Fed Announcement. A surprisingly strong reversal on Thu/Fri brought y...
Fri, Jun 18 2021, 3:52 PM
MBS Only Slightly Better While 10yr Shines
As discussed in the day ahead, the bond market is in the midst of...
Fri, Jun 18 2021, 11:04 AM
Our typical definition of "repricing" has to do with mortgage lender reprices, but the term has always existed beyond our little corner of the market....
Thu, Jun 17 2021, 4:31 PM
Strong Showing For Longer-Dated Bonds
With the Fed's dot plot in focus yesterday, the associated drama was h...
Thu, Jun 17 2021, 10:55 AM
After Wednesday's Fed-inspired rout, bond yields have done a great job finding support in the 1.56-1.59% area overnight amid high volume trading. All...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 4:18 PM
Fed's Salty Dots Rock Bonds
As feared/anticipated, today was all about the "dots" (the dot plot that shows F...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 9:52 AM
There are 8 Fed announcements per year (barring emergencies). Today's announcement is one of the 4 that include updated economic projections (the "do...
Tue, Jun 15 2021, 4:10 PM
Pre-Fed Paralysis Despite Some Interesting Data
Retail Sales down 1.3% and last month revised up to 0.9%? C...
Tue, Jun 15 2021, 9:00 AM
On weeks that close out with the big jobs report, an inordinate amount of headlines include a reference to the impending data. The same is true with ...
Mon, Jun 14 2021, 4:19 PM
New Week, New Sense of Urgency
The new week wasted no time in differentiating itself from the previous week ...
Mon, Jun 14 2021, 9:20 AM
Last week was relatively impressive and perhaps somewhat surprising in terms of bonds' ability to rally in the absence of overt fundamental motivation...
Fri, Jun 11 2021, 3:55 PM
Bonds Circle Weekend Wagons as Fed Day Looms
This week was a bit of a barn burner for the bond market with 1...
Fri, Jun 11 2021, 9:43 AM
Slightly weaker?! How could we say such things when the MBS chart looks like this:
Don't worry. This isn't exactly "real" due to the roll. The...
Thu, Jun 10 2021, 4:00 PM
Best Levels in Months After Much Higher CPI Data (No, Really!)
If you'd told someone that core annual CPI wo...
Thu, Jun 10 2021, 10:04 AM
If you'd told someone that core annual CPI would come in 0.4% higher than expected at a staggering 3.8%, but that Treasuries would only sell-off a few...
Wed, Jun 9 2021, 3:51 PM
Strong 10yr Auction Reinforces Friendly Trend
Bonds charged into the domestic session making surprisingly sw...
Wed, Jun 9 2021, 10:37 AM
In the past 48 hours, bonds have entered into one of those interesting rally patterns marked by a striking absence of conventional motivations. That ...
Tue, Jun 8 2021, 3:53 PM
Snowball Rally Reinforces Post-Payrolls Opportunities
Last week's jobs report created an opportunity to ride...
Tue, Jun 8 2021, 10:24 AM
A short squeeze occurs when bond yields fall to levels that force short sellers to cover their positions (read more here, if that didn't make sense), ...
Mon, Jun 7 2021, 4:25 PM
Sideways to Start The Week, But That's Still a Victory
Last Friday's jobs report sparked a reasonably big bo...
Mon, Jun 7 2021, 9:37 AM
Summertime Mondays--especially those without any significant calendar events--have a tendency to be lighter than normal in terms of volume and volatil...
Fri, Jun 4 2021, 3:05 PM
Locking vs Floating After Today's Jobs Report
NFP missed the mark and bonds ultimately rallied today. That ...
Fri, Jun 4 2021, 9:45 AM
The reaction has been back-and-forth in a very narrow range, but with very typical volume for NFP (in other words, traders are clearly trading... they...
Thu, Jun 3 2021, 4:36 PM
Have We Mentioned The Jobs Report?
It seems that there's been more build-up than normal ahead of this month'...
Thu, Jun 3 2021, 9:48 AM
A clear theme has emerged this morning. The day's early jobs-related reports have all come out noticeably stronger (technically Challenger Layoffs in...
Wed, Jun 2 2021, 4:00 PM
Sideways and Still Waiting on Friday's Jobs Report
Today's trading lived up to the sideways promises discuss...
Wed, Jun 2 2021, 9:23 AM
The spring of 2021 has been marked by a sideways consolidation that alternates between being "a sure thing" and "surely about to end. By mid April, b...
Tue, Jun 1 2021, 3:31 PM
Bonds a Bit Nervous as Big Data Week Begins
If there was ever a time when economic data was inconsequential ...
Tue, Jun 1 2021, 9:24 AM
The new, holiday-shortened week begins with a good amount of weakness versus Friday's latest levels. Nonetheless, yields are right in the middle of t...
Fri, May 28 2021, 3:03 PM
Decent Gains Despite Hotter Inflation Data
While there was nothing especially memorable about today's tradin...
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