Mon, Jun 27 2022, 12:31 PM
As rates moved up from the lows seen at the end of May, we viewed it as the confirmation of the broader sideways momentum that we hoped would replace ...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 4:28 PM
Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory
As the day began, bonds flirted with the idea of break...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:36 AM
Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that successfully confirmed...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 3:53 PM
Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength
MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point betwe...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 12:27 PM
A slew of PMI reports (Purchasing Manager Indices, which are essentially more granular, more timely, and only slightly more focused versions of GDP) s...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
Despite Onslaught of Fed Speakers, Bonds Hold Solid Gains
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:30 AM
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields... All of the above moved steadily lower in th...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 11:52 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week just barely below the mid-point of last week's big, volatile trading range. Getting here required a moderate amou...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 11:26 AM
It's been the phrase we love to hate since late May when bond yields encountered firm resistance as they failed to break below 2.7% for 4 straight day...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:23 PM
Treasuries Thunder Back Positive Territory; MBS Underperform
This morning's headline suggested a sideways, v...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 12:24 PM
As rates made their way lower in the month of May, our ongoing thesis was that gains would be limited by the fact that a true rally required many mont...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 4:47 PM
Big Victory After Powell Says Toss Up Between 50 and 75 Next Meeting
Whether we're talking about the past week, month or year, the war continues...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 2:01 PM
Although overall Overall economic activity edged appears to have picked up after edging down in the in the first quarter, household spending ...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 11:24 AM
It's hard to think of too many other Fed announcements with more potential volatility than today's. 4 short business days ago, the market knew exactl...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 4:53 PM
Lock or Float Ahead of The Fed?
Ideally, you've been locking at app all month as the only argument for float...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 12:00 PM
***REQUIRED READING for anyone who doesn't fully understand why the 4.5 UMBS coupon is far better to follow than the 5.0 intraday (for now).***
The...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:07 PM
One of The 5 Worst Days in Over a Decade
At one point today, bonds had lost more ground than any other day i...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 12:53 PM
Bonds had two options after last Friday's sell-off. They could either take a few lumps and get back to the business of looking for a long-term ceilin...
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 4:04 PM
Bonds Obliterated by CPI Reaction and Fed Fear
If the bond market is forced to digest a surprisingly hot inf...
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 12:42 PM
As feared, today's CPI data has proven to be the most capable market mover of the week, by a wide margin. Unfortunately, that volatility is playing o...
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 3:37 PM
Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI
The end of the week is marked by a battle with 3-letter ab...
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 11:39 AM
As has been the case for most of the past 2 weeks, European bonds have been arguing for a move to higher rates and US bonds have been reluctantly foll...
Wed, Jun 8 2022, 4:13 PM
Yields Quickly Forced to Defend Monday's Ceiling
Bonds started off on the defensive today with a weaker hand...
Wed, Jun 8 2022, 11:55 AM
After a bumpy start to the week on Monday, the bond market is still trying to define a sideways range that serves as a waiting room where traders will...
Tue, Jun 7 2022, 3:24 PM
Is Today's Bounce Enough to Reinforce the Range?
After 5 straight trading days of weakness and 3 stubborn da...
Tue, Jun 7 2022, 9:43 AM
At the risk of repeating ourselves regarding bond market trends of the past few months, 2022's initial rate rout clearly gave way to something more 's...
Mon, Jun 6 2022, 4:19 PM
Bonds Surprised by Supply Even Though They Knew Supply Was Coming
Whether in reference to the regularly sche...
Mon, Jun 6 2022, 11:49 AM
The week begins with bonds adding to recent losses as yields move back toward the top of the prevailing sideways range. There are several ways to app...
Fri, Jun 3 2022, 4:18 PM
Why Bonds Reacted to Such a Small Beat in The Jobs Data
In today's jobs report, headline payrolls came in at...
Thu, Jun 2 2022, 4:39 PM
Do Bonds Care About Jobs Data Again?
Yesterday it was the ISM Manufacturing data that moved the bond market....
Thu, Jun 2 2022, 11:44 AM
For those that prefer not to overcomplicate things, the current bond market environment can be summed up with one quick concept: rates have broadly le...
Wed, Jun 1 2022, 4:10 PM
Ceiling Looking Too Low After ISM Data Reaction
Yields may have failed to break below a floor of 2.72% last ...
Wed, Jun 1 2022, 9:45 AM
10yr yields weren't able to break convincingly below 2.72% after multiple attempts in the previous week. Friday's final attempt was definitively crus...
Tue, May 31 2022, 4:31 PM
Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains
The last 3 weeks of May were like an oasis in what has otherwise...
Tue, May 31 2022, 11:51 AM
10yr yields bounced at or near 2.72% for 4 straight days heading into the end of last week. Now this morning, they're sharply higher and already abov...
Fri, May 27 2022, 4:20 PM
"Little-Changed" Friday, Both For Bonds and Inflation
Today begins with the much-anticipated PCE inflation d...
Fri, May 27 2022, 12:12 PM
Today begins with the much-anticipated PCE inflation data coming in right in line with expectations. The result: a bond market that was already mostl...
Thu, May 26 2022, 5:21 PM
Rate Ceiling Considerations Ahead of Inflation Data
Rates/bonds were under pressure ahead of today's 7yr Tre...
Wed, May 25 2022, 5:48 PM
Bonds Holding Gains Despite Bounce in Stocks; Fed Minutes Uneventful
Today's Fed Minutes proved to be every ...
Wed, May 25 2022, 10:02 AM
In the run up to the most recent Fed announcement, the 50bp rate hike was a foregone conclusion. There was some uncertainty about how the Fed would a...
Tue, May 24 2022, 4:23 PM
Rate Rally Returns With Help From Housing Data
How about a good, old-fashioned market reaction to weaker eco...
Tue, May 24 2022, 11:31 AM
Another day, another headline with the word "stocks." Yesterday it was a stock market recovery pulling bond yields higher. Today it's renewed weakne...
Mon, May 23 2022, 4:37 PM
Stock Lever Cuts Both Ways as Yields Bounce Higher
While the gains seen in the bond market over the past 2 w...
Mon, May 23 2022, 12:11 PM
By last Friday, not only had the bond market seen a 2-week improvement for the first time all year, but the ground covered during those 2 weeks was bi...
Fri, May 20 2022, 11:44 AM
The entire week has been dominated by a close correlation between stock prices and bonds yields. This has been especially noticeable after 9:30am ET ...
Thu, May 19 2022, 4:48 PM
How Low Can Stocks Go? (Bonds Want to Know)
Bonds improved overnight and again after this morning's Philly ...
Thu, May 19 2022, 9:26 AM
Remember when the Fed began to abruptly revise its policy tightening pace at the start of the year and both stocks and bonds began to sell off? That'...
Wed, May 18 2022, 4:27 PM
What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
Bonds began the day in flat to slightly weaker territor...
Wed, May 18 2022, 11:54 AM
One side effect of following the market very closely during times of heightened volatility is that the short term developments on any given day run a ...
Tue, May 17 2022, 3:56 PM
Another Head Fake Comes and Goes With Help From Data and Powell
As of yesterday, bond yields looked like tha...
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