Tue, Dec 7 2021, 9:41 AM
Last week's story was simple: unknowns and risks surrounding omicron prompted traders to shed risk by selling stocks and buying bonds. Unfortunately ...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 4:26 PM
Bonds Sell-Off, But MBS Outperform
The week began decently enough with bonds holding most of last week's gai...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 11:41 AM
Although MBS have been underperforming, the broader trend in the bond market remains in good shape--especially in light of current headwinds. The mos...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Reversal in Bonds After Stocks Sell Off
Bonds paradoxically sold off after this morning's weaker jobs nu...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 10:55 AM
It's NFP day for the bond market although we have to ask ourselves what that really means in a world where the Fed has explicitly stated that it's see...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 4:18 PM
MBS Give Up Yesterday's Gains Despite Decent Start
MBS have a bit of a problem. In the past week, they've g...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 4:32 PM
Weaker Start, Stronger Finish
Volatility has been elevated for the bond market in the past 4 weeks and espec...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 11:09 AM
It's an interesting, confusing, and tumultuous moment for financial markets as traders digest an unprecedented confluence of relevant events. Two eve...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Swings as Covid Squares Off Against The Fed
It was omicron vs the Fed today and bonds had a front row se...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 10:25 AM
Today's reaction function for the market is very simple and very obvious. Shortly after midnight, Moderna's CEO made some discouraging comments about...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 3:27 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Shaky Start
This morning we found ourselves in the uncomfortable position of watchi...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 11:12 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week retaining a majority of last Friday's mega rally. The omicron-inspired gains were big enough that 10yr yields ar...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 2:50 PM
Covid Variant Causes Massive Market Reaction
This morning it was B.1.1.529. By the afternoon, the WHO label...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 11:34 AM
Remember July? Covid was a fading memory and the light was clearly visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Then came Delta. It served as a painf...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 4:18 PM
Fed Minutes Largely As Expected; No Major Drama For Bonds
After weathering the storm of this morning's data,...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 11:38 AM
One of the side effects of holiday-shortened weeks is a condensed data schedule. That's especially true of Thanksgiving week as it essentially remove...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 4:41 PM
Strong Auction No Match For Bond Bears
Today's 7yr auction was the biggest potential source of volatility fo...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 10:46 AM
As of last Friday, the bond market looked keen on rejecting any attempt to revisit the recent ceiling in late October (10yr yields were just over 1.70...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 4:41 PM
Abrupt Sell-Off To Begin Holiday-Shortened Week
The day began with confirmation that Fed Chair Powell would ...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 11:33 AM
There was some speculation that Biden would nominate Fed governor Lael Brainard to take over as Fed chair. It an outside possibility, but one that le...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 3:13 PM
Strong Showing Overall Despite Late Day Weakness
As noted in this morning's commentary, the key source of in...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 11:43 AM
As yesterday's AM commentary tacitly suggested, "winter is coming" in terms of the connection between colder temps and higher covid case counts. Euro...
Thu, Nov 18 2021, 3:31 PM
Bonds Add to Case For Stability
Bonds put in a solid enough performance on Thursday with 10yr yields almost ...
Thu, Nov 18 2021, 10:36 AM
The overnight session was mostly uneventful for the bond market, but trading levels were slightly weaker in the first hour of trading. Since then, bu...
Wed, Nov 17 2021, 4:40 PM
Bonds Improve, Led by Treasuries as Corporate Pipeline Clears
One of the key sources of motivation for risin...
Wed, Nov 17 2021, 9:40 AM
Last Wednesday brought the sharpest sell-off to the bond market in over a month. Bonds continued to weaken on the next two relevant trading days (Mon...
Tue, Nov 16 2021, 4:15 PM
MBS Outperform on Curve Steepening and Corporate Issuance
The yield curve has been almost exclusively in "fl...
Tue, Nov 16 2021, 9:52 AM
This morning's Retail Sales report--arguably the week's headliner--came in stronger than expected, and significantly stronger than the previous month....
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 3:44 PM
Defensive Until Further Notice
Bonds sold off early and often to begin the new week. Selling pressure rampe...
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 9:46 AM
Bonds were unchanged on Friday after selling off aggressively on Thursday. At first glance, that could be taken as confirmation of the weakness, but ...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 4:48 PM
Lots of Apparent Drama For an "Unchanged" Day
The morning's headline proclaimed that today was essentially a...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 10:56 AM
The typical federal holiday plays nicely with the bond market. Most involve a full closure on a Monday or Friday and are often preceded by a "half da...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 3:32 PM
Big Nasty Sell-Off Sends a Message About The Range
Steady selling in the morning followed by heavy selling a...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 9:42 AM
In econo-jargon, the word "real" typically refers to "inflation-adjusted." So when we say that "real 10yr yields" hit record lows this morning, it co...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 3:36 PM
Weaker Treasury Auction, But Only After a Strong Morning
In and of itself, the10yr Treasury auction (arguabl...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 8:58 AM
Today's MBS charts initially made it seem like prices had fallen versus yesterday's latest levels. In a way, they did, but the right side of the char...
Mon, Nov 8 2021, 4:27 PM
Mixed Signals As Holiday-Shortened Week Begins
Bonds lost some ground today. 10yr yields were up roughly 4b...
Mon, Nov 8 2021, 9:18 AM
As far as most news outlets are concerned, Friday's passage of the infrastructure bill is the big news for Monday morning. At one time, the bond mark...
Fri, Nov 5 2021, 3:24 PM
Why In The World Did Bonds Rally So Much Today?
Bonds embarked on a surprisingly swift move in a surprising ...
Fri, Nov 5 2021, 10:05 AM
Friday begins with a stronger-than-expected jobs report, including big positive revisions to the past few months and another drop in the unemployment ...
Thu, Nov 4 2021, 4:13 PM
Why Bonds Really Rallied on Thursday
Thursday's big bond rally was not a foregone conclusion destined to fol...
Thu, Nov 4 2021, 9:54 AM
Today's early trading range for the bond market was anyone's guess yesterday afternoon. Sometimes overseas markets have a different reaction to US mon...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 4:27 PM
Bonds Take Tapering Mostly In Stride
Today was the day that the Fed announced a reduction in the pace of its...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 2:05 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 9:40 AM
The Fed has been more than clear that it will announce a reduction in bond purchases today. This has been part of the bond market's destiny from the ...
Tue, Nov 2 2021, 3:45 PM
Does Precedent Matter For 2021 Taper Announcement?
Bonds rallied today, depending on when and where you look...
Tue, Nov 2 2021, 8:58 AM
The extent to which markets are expecting a Fed taper announcement tomorrow cannot be overstated. In fact, if the Fed announcement were reduced to a ...
Mon, Nov 1 2021, 4:02 PM
Bonds Battle Back After Slightly Weaker Start
There are bigger-picture, thematic trends in the bond market a...
Mon, Nov 1 2021, 9:13 AM
Any rate watcher who lived through 2013 has not-so-fond memories of the taper tantrum. (For those of you who weren't tuned in, that refers to the inc...
Fri, Oct 29 2021, 2:53 PM
Nice Recovery as Month-End Trades Roll In
Month-end trading isn't always helpful for bonds. Indeed, that's ...
MBS Market Alerts
