Tue, Feb 7 2023, 9:11 AM
In the wake of last week's strong economic data on Friday and follow-through weakness in overseas markets, traders are gearing up for additional Fed r...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates were already under quite a bit of pressure on Friday following the stunningly strong jobs report in the morning. Strong economic data ...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:23 PM
Suddenly Scared About Powell and Supply
Most of today's market movement was in the books within the first ha...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:47 AM
Friday's strong jobs report and ISM data caused obvious, immediate problems for rates, but bonds held their ground fairly well all things considered. ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:34 PM
Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more grow...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 12:34 PM
While we may not have a great explanation or even the capacity to believe it, nonfarm payrolls came in at 517,000 this morning versus a median forecas...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates responded favorably to yesterday's press conference with Fed Chair Powell. We discussed that move in detail in yesterday's commentary:...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe
US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intentio...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 11:21 AM
Today's big story is the European bond market's reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The hike was as-expected, but the ECB also ...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:48 PM
For some, this will be old hat. For others, there's a mystifying dynamic that demands explanation. The confusion stems from years of being condition...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:08 PM
Markets Surprisingly Surprised by Unsurprising Powell Comments
We were pretty sure we knew what Powell would...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 11:44 AM
Long gone are the days where the market waits to find out he size of a rate hike/cut. The current regime clearly communicates these things ahead of t...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have been roughly in line with last week's latest levels at the beginning of the current week. That means they're fairly close to the ...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:19 PM
What to Expect From Fed Day
Markets can see the changes in inflation data and traders are eager to refine th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 8:54 AM
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is an economic report that was never on our radar as a top tier market mover in the past. Then in early 2022, Fed Cha...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 4:40 PM
Skittish Over Data and Central Bankers
With no relevant market movers on the US calendar today, it was notab...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 10:38 AM
Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement. Key e...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:57 PM
5 for 5 on Uneventful Trading Days; Next Week Should be Different
Heading into this week, if we had to guess...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:43 PM
There are those who always try to portray the glass as being half full when it comes to the housing market. Then there are those who love a full glass...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 12:06 PM
The two reports most capable of surprising the market this week were Thursday's GDP and Friday's PCE. While it's always good to maintain some respect...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 4:28 PM
No Major Reaction to Data Means More Focus on Next Week
Thursday morning's economic data provided one of onl...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 3:33 PM
Scheduled economic reports are one of the first places the market looks to get a read on interest rate momentum. Of all the days this week, Thursday ...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 10:53 AM
Thursday's opening commentary could very well end up being the closing commentary. We came into the day entertaining the possibility that economic da...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily determined by the bond market, and it's been an uneventful week for bonds! That means we haven't seen much of a change i...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 3:55 PM
Uneventful Week Continues
Next time bond traders have a hard time getting to sleep, they could just read a r...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 11:52 AM
If you'd like to skip right to the end, the week is shaping up to be every bit as inconsequential as anticipated with bonds holding in a fairly narrow...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at higher levels than yesterday for the average lender, but the movement was fairly small. Most lenders were still able ...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Small Scale Volatility Against Bigger-Picture Holding Pattern
Bonds took several opportunities to react to e...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 11:03 AM
After having a case of the Mondays yesterday (unclear motivations and range-bound weakness amid low volume and light liquidity) bonds are back in the ...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 4:15 PM
After hitting the lowest levels in 4 months at times over the past week, rates have drifted up a bit. There hasn't been much rhyme or reason behind t...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Have a Case of The Mondays
Unlike the past 3 Mondays, which have seen fairly healthy participation and...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 11:34 AM
Reduced to the most simplistic of considerations, bond market price movement is all about supply and demand. The same is true of just about anything ...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 5:03 PM
Bonds Retreat a Bit. No Compelling Reasons or Implications
Bonds rallied to the best levels in months ear...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 1:01 PM
Since coming off the highest rates in more than a decade in November, bonds ran into resistance just before the end of the year. That resistance coin...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 4:04 PM
If you cross paths with the average mortgage rate article (or tweet/post/etc) today, chances are you'll see some mention of "rates moving lower." Tha...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 3:51 PM
Here's What's Up With These Big Swings in MBS Prices
Thursday ended up being a boring, uneventful trading da...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 11:41 AM
So much illiquidity this week... But what does that really mean? Let's break it down...
There are buyers and sellers in the MBS market submitting "...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 4:28 PM
Mortgage rates moved down at a fairly quick pace today following a slew of rate-friendly headlines. Technically, the headlines were good for the bond...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 4:20 PM
Big Rally Challenges Range Floor. What Next?
Bonds started strong in the overnight session thanks to an unch...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 11:55 AM
There was a fair amount of anticipation over the most recent policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) which came out early in the overnight se...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 3:59 PM
Limited Market Motivations as Traders Wait to Fill in Blanks
There was a palpable absence of relevant source...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 3:39 PM
The holiday-shortened week sees mortgage rates starting out slightly higher when compared to the end of last week. Versus any other day in the past 4...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 12:15 PM
By the middle of December, bond yields made a convincing move down from decades-long highs and settled in a sideways range on CPI/Fed week. We re-ent...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest levels in 4 months after this week's inflation data. Despite the recent progress, Fed officials continue to...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 3:30 PM
Incidental Weakness Today, But Let's Focus on The Bigger Picture
Bonds tried to stage a mid-day rally, but e...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 12:26 PM
Recently, the bond market's job description seems to be almost entirely focused on reacting to CPI and then waiting for the next one. Perhaps we can ...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 4:46 PM
Today brought the scheduled monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Of all the monthly economic reports, this one has had the biggest impa...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Finally Decide They Liked Today's Inflation Numbers
You won't see too many days with a 10+ bp rally in...
