Wed, Nov 23 2022, 3:26 PM
Rates Recover Nicely After Fed Minutes
Today was the only day of the holiday-shortened week with any meaning...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 11:04 AM
We'd be the first to advocate taking Thanksgiving week trading momentum with a grain of salt, so this morning's discussion is less about drawing conne...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 3:35 PM
Rates are driven by bonds and mortgage rates are driven by mortgage-backed bonds. These bonds trade in the open market all day every day. Mortgage l...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 3:25 PM
Light Participation Limits MBS Gains as Treasuries Shrug Off Weak Auction
Today's 7yr Treasury auction was o...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 10:38 AM
Welcome to the bond market on Thanksgiving week in a year with the fastest rate spike in 4 decades, driven by inflation. This year, it just so happen...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 3:41 PM
Random, Inconsequential Volatility Driven by Holiday Week Trading Conditions
No sooner did we finish reading...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 3:12 PM
Mortgage rates made their biggest recent move (and their biggest single day move ever) 2 Thursday's ago after a key report showed inflation was lower ...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 9:51 AM
Whereas humans might feel sleepy after a big holiday meal, the bond market often feels that way for the entire holiday week. Thanksgiving week is one...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:59 PM
Modest Losses But Uneventful in The Bigger Picture
'Tis the season for the bond market to enter holiday trad...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:37 PM
There's no question that last week was an exciting one for rates. On Wednesday, the average 30yr fixed was fairly close to the highest levels since 20...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 11:37 AM
One unfortunate side effect of the general hyperfocus on inflation as the biggest issue facing markets is that bonds have been able to bounce from one...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 5:18 PM
If you'd like to get the quick scoop and be on your way, here you go: the big move in rates happened last Thursday when the average 30yr fixed dropped...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 4:10 PM
Weaker Today, But Still in Solid Territory Despite Fed Push-Back
Bonds lost a bit of ground overnight and th...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 10:15 AM
After spending the first 3 days of the week attempting to moderately extend the gains, bonds are finding some resistance today. Comments from St. Lou...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 3:43 PM
Decent Rally Despite Strong Retail Sales and Hawkish Fed Speakers
It was an interesting day for the bond mar...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 3:09 PM
The mortgage landscape is very interesting at the moment. On any given day, some lenders are moving higher, others are moving lower, and the rest are...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 11:43 AM
The day is getting off to an interesting start as stronger Retail Sales data initially pushed yields higher. That weakness lasted for less than half ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:57 PM
1 Step Back and 1 Step Forward So Far This Week
Bonds made solid gains overnight, largely following a rally ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:31 PM
Let's talk about the current state of mortgage rates. Before we do, some housekeeping: the following pertains to averages across multiple lenders. T...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 11:06 AM
Today kicks off with the Producer Price Index painting a similar picture to last week's CPI data. Specifically, monthly wholesale inflation dropped 0...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:56 PM
If you're just getting caught up, last Thursday was one for the record books--at least when it comes to the daily records that exist going back to 200...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:14 PM
The Best Half Point MBS Sell-Off
On probably any other day, a half point sell-off in MBS would be bad new...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 12:02 PM
In case you missed Thursday's trading session last week, it was epic--one of the biggest single-day rallies on record and the biggest drop in mortgage...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:19 PM
Biggest Rally in Over a Decade After CPI Overdelivers
You may have been tired of hearing just how important ...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:11 PM
Heading into this week, we knew that Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be critically important. It did not disappoint. CPI is one of two ke...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 10:58 AM
This morning's trading action offers resounding validation of the market's hyperfocus on this particular CPI report. In a month where the average pri...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates experienced one of their calmest days of the past few weeks with the average lender roughly unchanged from yesterday. Rates are based ...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 11:41 AM
Heading into the week, the absence of tradable data on 3 out of the 4 days was readily apparent. Bonds were left at the mercy of tradeflows (all the ...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:37 PM
We're in the middle of a 4 day week culminating in one of the most important events of the year for interest rates. Thursday morning brings the relea...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:19 PM
Super Sideways After Solid Gains, But Nothing Matters Until Thursday
Today's news cycle was dominated by pol...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 12:10 PM
To be sure, the bond market absolutely CAN experience significant volatility in response to election outcomes, but the extent of that volatility depen...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates are directly linked to trading levels in the bond market. When bonds have a bad day, rates tend to rise. While that was true for the ...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Fret Over Issuance
As Thursday's CPI looms on the horizon as this week's defini...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 11:47 AM
With essentially nothing on the economic calendar on Monday, the most notable headline for the bond market has been the announcement of at least 13 ne...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 4:13 PM
Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75
After being steadily crushed to the most inverted levels...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 11:28 AM
This morning's centerpiece was the nonfarm payrolls number coming in at 260 versus a median forecast of 200k. Additionally, the previous month was re...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 4:30 PM
Post Fed Weakness Keeping Markets on Edge
Wednesday's Fed reaction reverberated through overseas markets ove...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 3:49 PM
If you missed yesterday's explanation of the Fed's impact on mortgage rates, it's worth a read (assuming you'd like to understand the Fed's impact on ...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 12:33 PM
Powell did as was expected yesterday by acknowledging an eventual conversation about slowing the pace of rate hikes while at the same time reminding m...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 6:43 PM
The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 0.75% today and 30yr fixed mortgage rates moved moderately higher. Interestingly enough, those two things are fair...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 5:34 PM
Powell Sticks To Same Script (The One That Bonds Don't Really Like)
Today's much-anticipated Fed announcemen...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 11:57 AM
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year. 4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook. Those announcement days tend to produc...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today after spending the past two trading days moving higher. The average lender remains in the low 7% range for ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 4:52 PM
Both Sides of The Market Eagerly Trading Fed Cues
Stocks and bonds both began the day in stronger territory ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 12:43 PM
November kicked off with a strong showing from buyers after October's month-end session saw a fair amount of selling. But the gains didn't last long....
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates are fresh off their best week since at least July and their best winning streak (in terms of consecutive days moving lower) in well ove...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:29 PM
Late Day Volatility Surrounding Month-End and Corporate Issuance
The day got off to a slow start with bonds ...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 11:24 AM
Bonds are contending with a modest amount of weakness overnight, but not enough to derail our conclusion that bonds have leveled off after an overdone...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 4:10 PM
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Heading into the current week, it wasn't...
