Tue, Jan 17 2023, 12:15 PM
By the middle of December, bond yields made a convincing move down from decades-long highs and settled in a sideways range on CPI/Fed week. We re-ent...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest levels in 4 months after this week's inflation data. Despite the recent progress, Fed officials continue to...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 3:30 PM
Incidental Weakness Today, But Let's Focus on The Bigger Picture
Bonds tried to stage a mid-day rally, but e...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 12:26 PM
Recently, the bond market's job description seems to be almost entirely focused on reacting to CPI and then waiting for the next one. Perhaps we can ...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 4:46 PM
Today brought the scheduled monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Of all the monthly economic reports, this one has had the biggest impa...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Finally Decide They Liked Today's Inflation Numbers
You won't see too many days with a 10+ bp rally in...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 10:30 AM
CPI came out very much in line with forecasts. We'd discussed the possibility of threading the needle in terms of financial markets not moving much i...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the prices and yields of bonds. Bonds take cues from several places, but always from inflation and the economy-...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 3:19 PM
Consolidation Takes Friendly Turn Ahead of CPI
Our focus this week has been on the notion of consolidation a...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 10:46 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) spent nearly a decade being ignored as a market mover due to an absence of any interesting momentum in inflation. That...
Tue, Jan 10 2023, 4:12 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Get Hit by Issuance
By 4pm, 5.0 MBS are only down a hair over an eighth of a po...
Tue, Jan 10 2023, 3:51 PM
After coming close to the lowest levels in 4 months yesterday, mortgage rates bounced slightly higher today. There's never any way to know exactly wh...
Tue, Jan 10 2023, 12:04 PM
"Circling the wagons" isn't a particularly specific term in the realm of financial market commentary. It's just a simple way to say that bonds had be...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 3:43 PM
Last Friday was a great day for mortgage rates with two important economic reports helping the bond market make serious gains (read more). Mortgage le...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 3:32 PM
Decent Day Helps Legitimize Friday's Gains
Any time we see a strong move on NFP Friday with a hint of "snowb...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 11:32 AM
Last week brought a series of economic reports that took the bond market in both directions. Thursday's data pushed yields somewhat higher, but Frida...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:50 PM
The Federal Reserve (aka "The Fed") has a parrot problem, and it's on a crash course with economic reality... maybe. The Fed sets policies that impac...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:49 PM
ISM and NFP Team Up To Send Rates Sharply Lower
Bonds got off to a strong start today when the wage componen...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 9:50 AM
Here's a puzzler--at least at first glance. This morning's much-anticipated jobs report came out stronger than expected with nonfarm payrolls at 223k...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:32 PM
The most basic way to think about interest rate movement is to assume that a strong economy pushes rates higher and vice versa. There are many other ...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:24 PM
Bonds Push Back Against Stronger Employment Data, But Tomorrow is a Different Fight
Bonds got off to a weake...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 11:32 AM
The past two days of moderate gains have been "nice," but they were just a prologue to the more relevant opening days of 2023. For the last 2.5 weeks...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:11 PM
There are Fed Announcements, which involve rate hikes/cuts, press conferences, and updated rate forecasts after a 2 day meeting among Fed members. An...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:01 PM
Another Day Holding Modest Gains After AM Weakness
French CPI (of all the crazy things) helped bonds improve...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 11:17 AM
In 15 years of MBS Live, this may be the first time French CPI made a headline, but today, it's deserved. It's not so much that France is a critical b...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 4:00 PM
The bond market (which determines mortgage rates) has officially endured the frustratingly unique holiday trading environment that often creates undue...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 3:54 PM
Decent Gains Despite Headwinds
Bond market participants rushed back into the office today with volumes at th...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 11:04 AM
The holiday season was unmistakably marked by a strong bias toward selling in the bond market. All we could do was watch the weakness and hold out h...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 1:16 PM
Early Close; Light Volume and Month-End Could Cause Volatility
The early-close trading session at the end of...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 1:12 PM
So long 2022! Don't let the door hit you. You were the worst year for mortgage rates that most of us have seen in our lifetimes in terms of the pace...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates began the day very close to yesterday's latest levels. The average lender was just a hair higher. As the day progressed, US bonds fol...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:22 PM
Nice Gains, But No Particular Reason
This is how they get ya! It's a classic sales tactic. The bond market...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 12:48 PM
With Friday being a half day ahead of a 3 day weekend, today is essentially the end of the trading year. In fact, one could argue that December 15th ...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:37 PM
Late Day Leakage Keeps Things Gloomy For Bonds
We're witnessing the random walk of the winter holiday tradin...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:10 PM
Up until just the past few weeks, the go-to headline to quantify the pace of recent mortgage rate movement tended to reference rates being the lowest ...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 12:57 PM
Recent inflation data and a slightly softer stance from the Fed combined to crush the yield curve (10yr yields almost 90bps lower than 2yr yields in e...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and it's a frustrating time of year for those seeking a rational relationship with bonds. In t...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 5:21 PM
Frustrating Reasons For Weakness Are Still The Best Reasons We Have
Bonds were moderately weaker to start th...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 9:24 AM
Have you heard the one about "holiday trading mode" in financial markets? It continues to be in full swing for bonds with lower volume, lighter liquid...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 1:10 PM
The last two weeks of December are unlike almost any time of year in terms of market movement and what we should read into it, but there were several ...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 1:09 PM
Still Not Reading Too Much Into This Week's Weakness
Friday began with bonds reacting negatively to economic...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 10:12 AM
Every now and then, the market moves decisively in one direction or the other due to economic data, but the movement is the opposite of what most mark...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:58 PM
Rates have calmed down after some unfortunate and unexpected volatility at the beginning of the week. The average lender is offering just slightly hi...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:51 PM
Small But Surprising Reaction to Data. Cruise Control Remain Intact
This morning's stronger-than-forecast GD...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 12:46 PM
It's unfortunate that we're now more than 40 years away from Alec Guinness's "these aren't the droids you're looking for" line in Star Wars. It makes...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:36 PM
The headline could be read two ways. To be clear, the "recent rise" refers to Monday and Tuesday of this week. Before that, mortgage rates spent the...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:32 PM
Sideways to Slightly Weaker After Early Gains
It ended up being an uneventful day for bonds despite a handfu...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds proved they were capable of rallying this week with respectable gains early this morning following two days of relatively sharp losses. Unfortun...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 4:26 PM
What a difference a few days have made for mortgage rates, and in this case, not a good difference. The average lender was offering the lowest rates ...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 3:46 PM
Does Japan's New Rate Policy Change Anything For Us?
Today's dominant market mover occurred in Japan early i...
