Tue, Sep 13 2022, 9:57 AM
We knew there was a lot riding on today's CPI data and that it was highly likely to inspire a big move higher or lower for bonds if it came in much hi...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, but only after moving slightly lower earlier this morning. "Higher" and "lower" are more informative if...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 3:53 PM
Potentially Decent Day Turns Sour After 10yr Treasury Auction
The first day of the new week began innocently...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 10:02 AM
There are times when a particular event garners too much attention as the most important consideration for bond market momentum. If any event were to...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 8:12 PM
It's certainly already been an interesting year for financial markets--especially for housing and interest rates. But most of what's happened over the...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 8:12 PM
Fairly Inconsequential Friday Ahead of a Very Consequential Week Ahead
Despite feeling like a bumpy ride at times, the bond market actually didn...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 12:21 PM
Bonds had a respectable overnight session with steady gains seen mostly during European hours. Then in the early part of the domestic session, it was...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 5:15 PM
It was an interesting day for mortgage rates due to the timing of movement in the underlying bond market. Bond prices/yields are the primary ingredie...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 4:43 PM
Bonds Close Weaker After Early Volatility and Late-Day Illiquidity
As has been the case for so many afternoo...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 11:36 AM
Fairly simple morning so far: the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked its policy rate by the expected 75bps. There wasn't much of a reaction to that. ...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates spiked quickly to open the holiday-shortened week with the average 30yr fixed rate coming very close to the 14-year high seen on June 1...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 4:49 PM
Nice Push Back Against Tuesday's Weakness. ECB On Deck
Tuesday was brutal and the only real explanation for...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 11:56 AM
Corporate bond issuance is one of those slightly esoteric concepts to the average rate watcher and usually a completely foreign concept to the average...
Tue, Sep 6 2022, 4:57 PM
As we discussed last week, there is unprecedented volatility in mortgage rates at the moment. It's not that we're seeing record setting swings from d...
Tue, Sep 6 2022, 4:27 PM
Steady Afternoon Leaves Steep AM Losses Intact
Today's recap could just as easily be this morning's commenta...
Tue, Sep 6 2022, 10:53 AM
Summertime seasonality is one of the worst kept secrets among bond forecasters. Simply put, since 2010, this is only the 3rd year where yields haven'...
Fri, Sep 2 2022, 5:40 PM
Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally
Anything over 300k is big number for nonfarm payrolls. Toda...
Fri, Sep 2 2022, 5:16 PM
It's a tremendously important and volatile time for the market and especially for interest rates. The biggest inflation surge in decades pushed rates...
Fri, Sep 2 2022, 11:05 AM
For weeks on end, it's been "sell first and ask questions later" for the bond market. Any econ data that's been at least halfway decent has been at r...
Thu, Sep 1 2022, 4:40 PM
Where We Are, Where We Might Be Going, And How We Might Get There
The first day of September found a way to ...
Thu, Sep 1 2022, 3:12 PM
As recently as late July, it wasn't outside the realm of possibility to see certain lenders quoting conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rates in the high...
Thu, Sep 1 2022, 10:36 AM
Imagine hosting a cocktail party with guests arriving and departing at random times. A particularly rowdy and unpleasant guest--let's call them "Augu...
Wed, Aug 31 2022, 4:44 PM
The last day of August was also the worst day for rates in August. In fact, it was the worse than any of July as well and not too terribly far from t...
Wed, Aug 31 2022, 4:28 PM
So Long August. Don't Let The Door Hit Ya!
July! We miss you!
August, please leave!
Hopefully Septemb...
Wed, Aug 31 2022, 12:15 PM
If you've been surprised by the extent to which US bonds have been hit by European inflation reports in the past month, you're not alone. Granted, th...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, and bond traders have a lot on their minds these days. After trading rates up to the highest levels in ...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 4:30 PM
Sideways Afternoon After Volatile Morning
"Hypervigilant volatility." Get used to seeing that new phrase as...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 10:57 AM
Hypervigilant volatility in response to data and policy comments is the order of the day/week/month as traders assume central bankers are more impress...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates managed to breathe a decent sigh of relief last Friday as the bond market remained fairly calm despite stock market weakness following ...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 4:12 PM
Jackson Hole Follow-Through or Something Else?
Last Friday's Jackson Hole speech was the subject of a fair a...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 12:52 PM
While there certainly wasn't anything surprising in last Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, much of the market seems to have been sur...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 5:04 PM
How Did Powell Bring The Pain With As-Expected Remarks?
This morning, we said the bond market appropriately ...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 4:34 PM
While it was never likely to contain too many surprises, this week's much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell served as an important...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 11:04 AM
Powell's Jackson Hole speech may as well have been written in advance by anyone who's done a remotely good job of paying attention to recent Fed comme...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 4:37 PM
It Doesn't Matter if Powell's Speech Matters
Some things will be yearned for, anticipated, and sought after ...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 4:08 PM
Tomorrow morning brings a much anticipated appearance from Fed Chair Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. As is often the case leading up to ...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 11:46 AM
Bonds were already trading fairly sideways in the overnight session and only experienced modest volatility after this morning's economic data. Unless...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 5:11 PM
Right off the bat, it's worth mentioning that many mortgage quotes are already over 6% for a variety of reasons. But when it comes to the "going rate...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 4:24 PM
More Weakness. Is This All About The Fed?
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger shape but began to sell ...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 10:46 AM
The unfriendly trend remains firmly intact this morning with 10yr yields up several more bps and MBS down another quarter point despite mixed economic...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 4:29 PM
Fun While it Lasted: Bonds Give Up Data-Inspired Gains
Bonds started out weaker early this morning but were ...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 3:32 PM
Today's mortgage rates are roughly in line with yesterday's for the average lender. Some are in better shape while others are slightly worse off depe...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 11:34 AM
Be still, our beating hearts! This morning's economic data came out weaker and bonds instantly engaged in a logical and sensibly-sized rally. Tradin...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 4:30 PM
Unfriendly Trend as Fed Fear Sets In
Without any obvious, individual motivations in the news or on the econ ...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 4:01 PM
At the end of July, the prevailing concern in the mortgage industry was that rates were falling at an unhealthy pace. The good news is that as we app...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds don't have too much so stress about this week in terms of calendar events. The notable exception is Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech on F...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 5:15 PM
Bonds Tank After EU Inflation Data
For those who caught this morning's commentary on European inflation data...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 4:45 PM
The average mortgage rate headline among major news networks suggests things improved this week. The average headline is wrong . Don't blame the new...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 12:55 PM
Yesterday ended with yields grinding into an ever narrower consolidation pattern with 2.91% serving as the ceiling in the 10yr. That's exactly where ...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 4:36 PM
It was a very boring day for mortgage rates. There was no meaningful change versus yesterday's latest levels and there were almost no instances of mi...
