Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:29 PM
Late Day Volatility Surrounding Month-End and Corporate Issuance
The day got off to a slow start with bonds ...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 11:24 AM
Bonds are contending with a modest amount of weakness overnight, but not enough to derail our conclusion that bonds have leveled off after an overdone...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 4:10 PM
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Heading into the current week, it wasn't...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 10:03 AM
Throughout the week, we've been of the mind that last week's losses were overdone and this week's gains represented a correction to that unjustified w...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 5:00 PM
As of yesterday, mortgage rates were already on their best winning streak since late July in terms of consecutive days spent moving lower. With today...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 3:34 PM
Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide
Bonds may have moved into stronger territory tod...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 11:37 AM
Today began with bonds in moderately weaker territory after token defensive positioning following a solid rally and ahead of the week's more consequen...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for an impressive 4th straight day. That hasn't happened since late July, but there are a few caveats. First off, while t...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:06 PM
Another Solid Day; Detailed Discussion on 5.0 Coupons vs 7% Rates
Bonds are trading better than they have at...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 12:31 PM
A bit of housekeeping before we get to the UMBS question...
Bonds have have been rallying very well since yesterday morning. At the same time, the ...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 5:18 PM
Yesterday, we noted that the 2nd consecutive day of improvement for mortgage rates was a rare accomplishment in the context of the past few months. N...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 4:34 PM
Strong Showing For Bonds. So Have Things Changed?
Bonds rallied overnight of their own volition and in conce...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 12:13 PM
Bonds rallied at a solid pace overnight with gains in both Asian and European sessions. More impressive, however, have been the domestic session gain...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 5:15 PM
Now here's a rare thing! Mortgage rates managed to move lower, on average, for the 2nd consecutive business day on Monday. That hasn't happened for r...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 4:50 PM
US Bonds Try (And Fail) To Follow The EU Rally
The average day over the past few weeks/months has seen a hig...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 12:00 PM
The end of last week was a wild little emotional roller coaster for the bond market. Thursday brought a sharp sell-off that spilled into the overnigh...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 8:18 PM
There's no way to sugarcoat the situation in the bond market and, by extension, the mortgage and housing markets. Rates have risen at a nearly unprece...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 4:47 PM
Crazy, Scary Morning Gives Way to Moderate Gains
The bond market gamed the Fed today, and won (i.e. the long...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 12:34 PM
The bond market began the day by doing its best impression of lover scorned, threatening self harm unless it gets some sort of validation from its for...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 5:27 PM
Important Day For Bonds and an Important Conversation About MBS Coupons
The important conversation about MBS...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 4:42 PM
Let's talk about exactly what it means to see a mortgage rate headline in the news, or even from some seemingly official index or survey. In fact, l...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 11:59 AM
Everyone is tired of the persistent sell-off in the bond market, but weariness is no match for the negative momentum. We've long since run out of ways...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 5:10 PM
There's no sense in beating a dead horse or wading through another "same story, different day" assessment of rates. They were already at 20 year highs...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 4:59 PM
Another Move to Long Term Lows 'Just Because'
Today began with more upward pressure on yields, apparently du...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 11:08 AM
Today begins with bond yields at new 14 year highs with the ostensible culprit being the inflation reading in the UK overnight. While there's no ques...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 5:30 PM
Secret Market Movers or New Normal For Intraday Volatility?
Today's most exciting moments arrived just after...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, but not without plenty of volatility in between. Mortgage lenders would prefer to set their rates once...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 11:16 AM
When salmon return to the river after spending a number of years in the ocean, they don't charge upstream immediately. They spend time moving in and ...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 5:40 PM
Not only is the mortgage rate landscape vastly different than most of the past 20 years in terms of outright levels, but the way things change from da...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 4:26 PM
Technically Stronger But it Feels Weaker
Bonds began the day in stronger territory with overnight support co...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 12:40 PM
Recall that last Friday saw an extremely sharp selling spree led by UK and exacerbated by domestic data (consumer inflation expectations). Yields end...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 9:09 PM
Unsurprisingly, the market remains intently focused on inflation as the key driver of Fed policy and rate volatility. This week, the biggest inflation...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 4:28 PM
Even When It's Good, It's Bad
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and E...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 12:32 PM
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and Europe. Kwarteng, the British Finance Minister who kicked off the worst ...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 5:00 PM
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal?
Bonds may have ended the day in negative territory, but t...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 4:22 PM
There was no way to be sure what the effect of today's economic data would be on mortgage rates. All we knew is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) w...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 11:42 AM
Pretty simple this morning, at first anyway. Bonds hoped to see just a modicum of relief in the most important data series of 2022, the Consumer Pric...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates ended the day at slightly lower levels compared to the close of business yesterday. That's the first time rates have fallen day-over-d...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 4:16 PM
Fully Free to Focus on CPI After Tuesday's Uneventful Data and Events
Bonds shrugged off this morning's PPI ...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 12:42 PM
Bonds had a mixed overnight session with modest gains initially and moderate losses during European hours. In a bit of a break from the norm, German ...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 3:42 PM
Bonds Dodge British Bullet But Still Fighting For Survival
The overnight session and especially yesterday's ...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 2:34 PM
For many of the holidays in the US bond market, relevant overseas bond markets are also closed. The opposite is true on several occasions with Indige...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 12:05 PM
The holiday trading session was dominated by another snowball sell-off in British bonds with the UK 10yr yield rising more than 30bps. Much like last...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 7:30 PM
The resilience of the economy is a matter of debate with different cases to be made depending on the data. But when it comes to the Fed's favorite rep...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 4:24 PM
Logical Outcome For Bonds. Still Waiting on Data to Tell a New Story
The jobs report came in just slightly a...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 11:37 AM
Jobs are great for people who like eat food and buy things, but too many jobs are bad for people who like low rates. And when the labor market is bei...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 4:25 PM
Weakest Levels of The Week Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds sold off mid-morning after starting off relatively fla...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates were refreshingly lower at the beginning of the week with most lenders continuing to improve through Tuesday afternoon. Much has chang...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 12:15 PM
Without commenting on the odds of any particular outcome, Thursday can't help but fill the role of "placeholder" given the proximity of tomorrow's big...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 4:19 PM
The mortgage rate world has been on a wild ride in general, and even more so in the past few weeks. The crux of the drama was a British fiscal policy...
