Wed, Apr 12 2023, 4:11 PM
Mixed Reactions to CPI and Fed Minutes
This morning's "as-expected" inflation data was very well received by...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 10:44 AM
The importance of economic reports like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated in the current environment. Case in point, this month's i...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates didn't do much today (the average lender drifted microscopically, and Wednesday's CPI data has infinitely more power to move the needle...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:29 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Wednesday morning brings the most consequential economic data of the next several weeks in t...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 12:19 PM
With the global financial market mostly firing on all cylinders after the various closures of the holiday weekend, the post-NFP defensiveness remains ...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 4:00 PM
Unofficially Still Waiting For The Week to Begin
Bonds took today to get caught up after an unconventional h...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates put in a great performance last week--especially if you stopped paying attention on Thursday. At that time, it was the best weekly dro...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 12:34 PM
The juxtaposition of an uncharacteristically early close on Friday, an important nonfarm payrolls release, and widespread holiday closures in European...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 4:58 PM
Interest rates were remarkably calm in the last week of March. The market was in the process of shifting focus from the banking sector back to economi...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 3:03 PM
Straightforward Selling After Jobs Data; CPI Up Next
While it's possible to find a few folks on the internet...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 11:53 AM
This morning's jobs report was very close to perfectly in line with forecasts. While the job count declined from last month, the report was strong ov...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates put in a solid performance so far this week with substantial declines to the lowest levels in months as of yesterday afternoon. Thursd...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 4:32 PM
Weeklong Rally Levels Off Ahead of Jobs Report
10yr yields began the week over 3.5% and rallied more than 20...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 12:04 PM
The tone of Wednesday's trading was a bit different than the previous two days. All 3 featured motivation for lower rates/yields from the economic da...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 4:16 PM
Rates Rally Cautiously After ISM Services Data
On the approach, today's ISM Services PMI looked like the 2nd...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 3:53 PM
It seems like only a few weeks ago that the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was surging up to 7% from 6% just a few weeks earlier. In fact, it doesn...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 11:03 AM
Apart from Friday's jobs report, this morning's ISM Services (or "non-manufacturing") data was the week's most relevant market mover in terms of sched...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:44 PM
Downbeat Data Primes The Pump For Shift
Tuesday's Job Openings report combined with Monday's ISM Manufacturi...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:35 PM
As long as we're talking about the best case scenario conforming 30yr fixed mortgage rate, the average lender officially hit 2-month lows today, just ...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 11:17 AM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory as they followed European yields higher overnight. But the domestic session is looking up thanks to JOLTS dat...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today as investors reacted to economic data that showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Institute for Supply ...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 3:49 PM
Downbeat Data Puts Downward Pressure on Rates
Although there was some cause for concern in the overnight tra...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 9:39 AM
The bond market is still in the process of reestablishing composure after the recent banking panic. The bank episode sent Fed rate expectations plumm...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 6:18 PM
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 3:34 PM
Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data
Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and ...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 12:12 PM
Today brings two new updates on inflation. Core PCE inflation came in at 4.6 vs 4.7% forecasts, down from a 4.7% level previously. This isn't nearly...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 4:09 PM
This week's theme has undoubtedly been the extreme absence of volatility in the rate market. Whether we're looking at mortgage rates themselves or a ...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 3:52 PM
Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last
For the third straight day, the bond market traded in a range that was signifi...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 12:00 PM
Volume and volatility have rapidly died down over the past 3 days as the market settles into a waiting game. What are we waiting for? Successive day...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 5:03 PM
For the second day in a row, mortgage rates didn't move nearly as much as they have been moving on any given day during the past 3 weeks. This is a r...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 4:44 PM
Another Boring (But Resilient) Day
After the past few weeks, boring trading days aren't necessarily unwelcom...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 12:10 PM
In the wake of bank failures earlier in the month, stock prices and bond yields had been highly correlated. This is a more normal trading pattern for...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 5:09 PM
The week began with a noticeable uptick in mortgage rates relative to last week's lows. Today's momentum continued in the same direction, but with le...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 4:59 PM
The Most Boring Trading Day in Weeks
Bond market volatility exploded on March 10th after the failure of Sili...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 10:20 AM
The week began with a somewhat sharp sell-off. This followed the steady selling pressure in bonds seen last Friday (albeit after the lowest opening y...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in just over 6 weeks on Friday as investors braced for bad news in the banking sector. Such fears tend pull mo...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 3:53 PM
Bonds Buyers Back Off as Banks Bounce
Bank health continues to dominate the news cycle with investors buying...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 9:26 AM
Bond yields began rising at 2am this morning when news broke regarding the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). First Citizens bank will acquire...
Fri, Mar 24 2023, 4:40 PM
Bonds Manage to Hold Gains Despite Risk Recovery
Everything has been driven by the "risk-on, risk-off" movem...
Fri, Mar 24 2023, 10:07 AM
The old sign on the trading floor that proudly boasted we had gone 2 days without a systemic banking flare-up (as of yesterday) has been reset to "0,"...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 4:21 PM
Over the course of the past two days, the average conforming 30yr fixed rate has moved down to the lowest levels since early February for most lenders...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 3:56 PM
Bonds Improve on Late Day Risk Aversion; Thoughts on Liquidity
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territ...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 12:11 PM
The Fed cleared a lot up for the market yesterday by confirming that inflation still matters, but that systemic banking problems also matter. Powell ...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 5:05 PM
There was some debate as to whether or not the Federal Reserve would hike the Fed Funds Rate today, although the consensus was for a 0.25% increase. ...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 4:55 PM
Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite a Fed Hike and a Stubborn Dot Plot
Today promised to be one of the most inter...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 2:02 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust picked up in recent months, months and are runn...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 11:19 AM
It's difficult and probably not that important to rank today's Fed day against other iterations over the past few years. It's easy to say that it is ...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 4:24 PM
Banking sector fears were responsible for a nice little drop in mortgage rates over the past 2 weeks. As those fears subside (to some extent, anyway)...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 3:50 PM
Stocks and Bond Yields Moving Higher Together; Fed on Deck
Today's trading session turned out to be every bi...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 10:05 AM
Relative to the presence of important market developments and high volatility, the current landscape for bonds is surprisingly simple. The banking pa...
