Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:20 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Unfriendly Dots Balanced by Peaceful Powell
As expected, the market's initial focus ...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 12:17 PM
It's Fed day and a 0.50% hike is a foregone conclusion. Markets have fully priced that in and multiple Fed speeches--including Powell 2 weeks ago--ha...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 4:49 PM
There aren't many scheduled economic reports that are as hotly anticipated as was today's Consumer Price Index (CPI). The market's reaction more than...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 4:28 PM
CPI Reaction Lives Up To The Hype. Fed on Deck
On most any other day, if MBS are going out the door with a 5...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 10:01 AM
You can go back and research decades of Consumer Price Index reports to compare the size of the market movement relative to the size of the beat/miss ...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 3:59 PM
The week began in fairly uneventful fashion for mortgage rates, at least in the bigger picture. In the smaller picture, there was a modicum of drama ...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 3:51 PM
Bonds Give up Gains After Bumpy Auctions
Amid and absence of any relevant economic data, bonds were forced t...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 12:17 PM
It's been more than a month since the last CPI report sent mortgage rates lower at the fastest single-day pace on record. Since then, apart from one ...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 7:07 PM
Tuesday December 13th is the day many people have been waiting for ever since Thursday November 10th. What do those two days have in common? They each...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 5:15 PM
Retreat Into Recent Rate Range Continues
The opening commentary is surprisingly similar to the closing comme...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 11:29 AM
We came into Friday expecting the Producer Price Index data to carry more market movement potential than normal. Two reasons for this: A) inflation d...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates have been remarkably well behaved since the November 10th release of the last Consumer Price Index (CPI), the monthly inflation report ...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 3:59 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Moderate Weakness
Today had the feel of a holiday trading day in the bond mar...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 12:14 PM
As we watched yesterday's rally continue to extend into the afternoon without any compelling motivation, it began to seem slightly overdone--especiall...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today after new economic data showed a big drop in the cost of labor in Q3. Labor costs are one of the places t...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:22 PM
Mini Snowball Rally on Data, Technicals, and Lack of Supply
There are several ways to approach today's rally...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 9:50 AM
We never like to view technical levels or technical analysis as having any reliable predictive value about the future. It's more of a framework that ...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:57 PM
This week continues to be a placeholder ahead of more consequential events coming up in the week ahead. Specifically, next Tuesday and Wednesday's co...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:39 PM
Mystery Rally Gets Bonds Back in The Green
Both Tuesday and Wednesday are effectively free from market-movin...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 12:23 PM
Today's trading session is effectively data-free in the US with the never-market-moving International Trade report the only data on the calendar. Bon...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week very close to their lowest levels in more than 2 months after Fed Chair Powell essentially confirmed next week's rate h...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 3:22 PM
Weaker Start on Data and Fed Anxiety
Bonds got off to a weaker start in the new week on a variety of factors...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 11:21 AM
The importance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated for most of 2022. That's doubly true in November and December. The Nov 10th it...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 4:12 PM
Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data
Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following t...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 3:48 PM
As far as financial markets are concerned, a green Christmas is better than anything Bing Crosby could have crooned about. Green is the color that fla...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 12:30 PM
Change has been in the air since the November 10th CPI data. That single report did more than any other event to raise hopes for a big picture shift ...
Thu, Dec 1 2022, 4:05 PM
Mortgage rates had been in a holding pattern for nearly 3 weeks following the November 10th CPI inflation data. On that single day, the average 30yr ...
Thu, Dec 1 2022, 3:15 PM
Bonds Look Like They're Expecting Good News
We came into the day with a disclaimer about modest losses still...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today, but barring a major market reversal overnight, could be even lower tomorrow. It's fairly rare to be able t...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 4:25 PM
Powell Shows Up With Holiday Cheer For Bonds
While it's not technically a holiday week, we are in the midst ...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 1:13 PM
The combination of this morning's ADP employment data and the preliminary GDP revision pushed yields slightly higher after a flat overnight session. ...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 4:47 PM
It's been hard to find an interesting new angle on mortgage rates over the past 2+ weeks. They've been remarkably flat during that time after falling...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 4:33 PM
Issuance Sets The Tone and Keeps Bonds Range-Bound
Bonds have now spent more than 2 weeks locked inside a ve...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 9:49 AM
Corporate debt issuance is a net negative for bonds. There was a lull in issuance heading into Thanksgiving. With traders snapping out of holiday mo...
Mon, Nov 28 2022, 4:31 PM
Excitement, volatility, non-stop action... concepts that have absolutely nothing to do with mortgage rate movement over the course of the past two wee...
Mon, Nov 28 2022, 12:20 PM
Bonds were effectively closed for a 4-day weekend starting with Thanksgiving last Thursday. True, Friday was technically open for half a day, but vol...
Fri, Nov 25 2022, 9:11 AM
MBS live will be operating in "holiday light" mode today. The weekly newsletter is on holiday but will be back next week. Commentary and alerts will...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 3:42 PM
Bond markets will be closed for Thanksgiving tomorrow. That means mortgage lenders won't be publishing new rates. While markets are technically open...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 3:26 PM
Rates Recover Nicely After Fed Minutes
Today was the only day of the holiday-shortened week with any meaning...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 11:04 AM
We'd be the first to advocate taking Thanksgiving week trading momentum with a grain of salt, so this morning's discussion is less about drawing conne...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 3:35 PM
Rates are driven by bonds and mortgage rates are driven by mortgage-backed bonds. These bonds trade in the open market all day every day. Mortgage l...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 3:25 PM
Light Participation Limits MBS Gains as Treasuries Shrug Off Weak Auction
Today's 7yr Treasury auction was o...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 10:38 AM
Welcome to the bond market on Thanksgiving week in a year with the fastest rate spike in 4 decades, driven by inflation. This year, it just so happen...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 3:41 PM
Random, Inconsequential Volatility Driven by Holiday Week Trading Conditions
No sooner did we finish reading...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 3:12 PM
Mortgage rates made their biggest recent move (and their biggest single day move ever) 2 Thursday's ago after a key report showed inflation was lower ...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 9:51 AM
Whereas humans might feel sleepy after a big holiday meal, the bond market often feels that way for the entire holiday week. Thanksgiving week is one...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:59 PM
Modest Losses But Uneventful in The Bigger Picture
'Tis the season for the bond market to enter holiday trad...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:37 PM
There's no question that last week was an exciting one for rates. On Wednesday, the average 30yr fixed was fairly close to the highest levels since 20...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 11:37 AM
One unfortunate side effect of the general hyperfocus on inflation as the biggest issue facing markets is that bonds have been able to bounce from one...
