Wed, Dec 6 2023, 12:11 PM
Another day, another set of economic reports that offer no objections to the steady bond market rally of the past few weeks. Yesterday's heavy liftin...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 4:26 PM
Right from the start and with only a few days that didn't fit the narrative, November was a stellar month for mortgage rates, and December is picking ...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 4:12 PM
Logical Response to Data. Bonds Not Looking Nervous at 3 month lows
We knew that today's JOLTS and ISM repor...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 12:43 PM
JOLTS, the job openings and labor turnover survey, used to be a very forgettable report. On a scale of potential market movers, we've always assigned...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 3:29 PM
Apart from this past Friday, you'd have to go back to September 1st to see lower mortgage rates than today. It probably makes the best sense to view ...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 3:29 PM
A Bit of Meaningless Weakness. More Important Stuff On Deck
Bonds lost ground to start the new week, but not...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 11:45 AM
Bond rallies = lower rates. We like bond rallies. But when rates fall too quickly or consistently, it can be too much of a good thing. That's a phe...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 5:05 PM
Just yesterday, we were nodding in agreement and acceptance of the fact that rates were better served by cooling off a bit (read: "rising") after impr...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Another Surprisingly Eager Bond Rally Suggests Caution and Opportunity
Two days ago, the focus of the analys...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 12:28 PM
With it being the first trading day of a new month and a Friday, it's hard to determine the extent to which traders planned to buy bonds today providi...
Thu, Nov 30 2023, 3:08 PM
If you count the Friday after Thanksgiving as a business day, mortgage rates had fallen for 6 straight days as of yesterday afternoon. Moreover, they...
Thu, Nov 30 2023, 11:45 AM
It would have been a lot to ask for bonds to continue rallying without any major justification after hitting 4.25% yesterday and after 50bp rally over...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 5:03 PM
There were no major economic reports or news headlines in play today. Movement in the bond market (which underlies mortgage rate changes) was orderly...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 3:14 PM
Shifting Trends, Shifting Strategies?
Another day of modest to moderate gains, but this time without the sam...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 12:00 PM
The "base case" of a narrower, more sideways range between CPI and NFP is increasingly being disproven by a more bullish reality. Especially after th...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:52 PM
The trend in rates has been very linear in the 2nd half of the month and the day-to-day changes have been getting smaller and smaller. On 5 of the las...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:38 PM
Bonds Surprisingly Willing to Rally on Fed Comments
The only notable market mover for bonds was a rather bas...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:24 PM
The tedium that is the 2nd half of November continues to underwhelm. Specifically, we're in a lull between CPI 2 weeks ago and Nonfarm Payrolls next w...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 3:23 PM
Thanksgiving week is always an interesting (and frequently frustrating) time for the bond market that underlies day to day interest rate changes. Mar...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 3:20 PM
Back Near Best Levels After Solid Auction Results
For those who'd been watching bond markets on Friday's hal...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 9:35 AM
The end of November has been true to form with several examples of directional movement despite an absence of motivation. Last Friday was perhaps the...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:45 PM
"Lower volatility and more sideways momentum" have been the themes as we've moved away from last week's more consequential economic data. The underly...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:35 PM
Inconsequentially Weaker After Data; We'll Be Back on Monday
While Friday will technically be a half day for...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 12:06 PM
Up until yesterday, we would have placed the lower boundary of the prevailing range somewhere between the 4.40% lows from last Friday and the 4.43% pi...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 3:26 PM
The bond market that underlies mortgage rates has had several decent days in a row with trading levels in excellent territory relative to the past two...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 3:23 PM
Modest, Decent Gains, But Not Many Surprises
The bond market continues mostly adhering to expectations for n...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 12:41 PM
There's a reason we haven't been mentioning this week's release of the Fed Minutes as we lament the absence of significant scheduled market movers. S...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:39 PM
Uneventful Start. Decent Gains After 20yr Bond Auction
The holiday-shortened trading week is off to exactly ...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates moved down to the lowest levels in roughly 2 months last week. To be fair, they had already hit similar levels earlier in the month af...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 11:01 AM
After last week's big CPI-driven rally, yields settled into an increasingly calm, sideways trend marked by resistance at the post-CPI lows. It would ...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:30 PM
Solid End to a Solid Week
With essentially nothing meaningful on the economic or event calendar, the bond ma...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:09 PM
The average mortgage lender was fairly close to their lowest levels of the past 2 months by yesterday afternoon and today saw almost no change. That'...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 11:42 AM
Our recent analytical thesis runs the risk of being all dressed up with nowhere to go between now and the first full week of December. As such, thing...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 3:27 PM
After a fantastic day on Tuesday and frustrating little bounce after yesterday's Retail Sales data, mortgage rates have fully recovered back to the re...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 3:26 PM
Yesterday's Losses Easily Erased By Data
Wednesday's bond market losses rained on Tuesday's post-CPI parade....
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 12:04 PM
With yesterday's Retail Sales data in the rearview, the base case between now and the first week of December is for more moderate volatility in a rela...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:17 PM
Happy Thanksgiving From The Bond Market. See You in December
After Tuesday's big CPI reaction, Wednesday bro...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:06 PM
The story of the week for mortgage rates continues to be the substantial drop seen on Tuesday in response to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). But that ...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 12:10 PM
If you had to script out the most likely course of events after Tuesday's big post-CPI bond rally, the safest expectation would be for a token pull-ba...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 4:05 PM
Another Big November Rally After CPI
There's something about CPI releases in November. Last year's example ...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 3:45 PM
November 3rd's jobs report brought an outstanding week for Treasuries and mortgage rates to an outstanding conclusion. From there, the following week...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 11:06 AM
Ever since the jobs report on November 3rd, today's CPI report was in focus as the next major fundamental focal point for the bond market. As 10yr yi...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:51 PM
MBS Outperform Ahead of CPI
Monday had very little to offer in terms of calendar events or meaningful headl...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in nearly 2 weeks. The underlying bond market had been losing ground steadily since last Thursday ...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Last week ended up being a sideways dud in terms of the bond market's willingness to do anything new after the previous week's big rally. That said, ...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:21 PM
While it's possible to accuse mortgage rates of experiencing volatility over the past few days, this week was exceptionally calm compared to last week...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:20 PM
All Eyes on CPI
After last Friday's jobs report, there wasn't anything on the event calendar that demanded o...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 1:59 PM
Coming off of last week's big rally, the present week looked like a long shot to offer any exciting developments. Now in the rearview, the lack of exc...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 4:48 PM
It was a great run for mortgage rates over the last 2 weeks with a sharp decline last week followed by very respectable ground-holding in the present ...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 4:44 PM
30yr Auction Draws a Line Under The Range
The day began with nominal, inconsequential weakness in bonds. 10...
