Fri, May 24 2024, 2:43 PM
It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market...
Fri, May 24 2024, 8:57 AM
If there were any remaining doubts regarding the relevance of Durable Goods as a big ticket market mover, they are put to rest by the absence of a dis...
Thu, May 23 2024, 4:17 PM
Surprisingly Strong Surge in Services PMI Tests The Range
Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus o...
Thu, May 23 2024, 3:45 PM
For the most part, the current week is sorely lacking in the sort of scheduled economic data and events that typically contribute to exciting movement...
Thu, May 23 2024, 9:02 AM
It's day 6 of the increasingly famous 11-day weekend (1 normal weekend plus the 3 day Memorial Day weekend and the 5 days in between without any big t...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:58 PM
No Major Reaction to Fed Minutes
Today's only event that has any precedent of inspiring rate volatility was ...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:28 PM
It was another slow day for the mortgage market and one that joins a list of several other relatively inconsequential days in the past few weeks. Thi...
Wed, May 22 2024, 10:37 AM
It's unclear if the industry can recover from what is surely one of the most troubling rate spikes in modern economic history. Invoking one of the mos...
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:52 PM
No Fireworks Expected From Fed Minutes
Day 4 of the 11 day weekend is in the books and the bond market did e...
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:38 PM
Referring to the past 3 business days as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates may be a bit harsh. During that time, the average top tier 30yr fixed r...
Tue, May 21 2024, 10:50 AM
Ever since the inflation data in Q1 proved to be less rate-friendly than we might have hoped, the Fed has been exactly as unfriendly as we might have ...
Mon, May 20 2024, 3:33 PM
Mostly Flat After Initial Weakness
There's a risk that a theme will emerge in the coming days, but a theme t...
Mon, May 20 2024, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher on the two days at the end of last week. This put an end to a decent winning streak that had been in place since...
Mon, May 20 2024, 11:16 AM
It's not too common to refer to a week with Fed meeting minutes as "super slow," but at the risk of complacency, how could the Fed possibly share any ...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:31 PM
Moderate, Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost ground at a modest to moderate clip on Friday, but not for any...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates have had a great month of May so far with almost every day being a winner up until yesterday and today. Even then, the 2 day losing st...
Fri, May 17 2024, 11:12 AM
Friday's only scheduled economic report is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index. It is not considered a timely market mover...
Thu, May 16 2024, 5:00 PM
Gradual Weakness All Day And a Quieter Calendar Ahead
Today brought the last of the scheduled economic data ...
Thu, May 16 2024, 4:18 PM
On the average day in the mortgage market, the average lender will offer the same mortgage rate terms for the entire day. It's only when the underlyi...
Thu, May 16 2024, 12:02 PM
It's the day after the CPI data and thus begins a concerted effort over the next few weeks to avoid compiling every piece of commentary as a simple co...
Wed, May 15 2024, 3:04 PM
Like The Last CPI Never Even Happened
The much anticipated CPI data was perfectly in line with expectations ...
Wed, May 15 2024, 2:28 PM
If it feels like we've been harping on the prospects for rate volatility in response to today's inflation data for several weeks (and we have), today ...
Wed, May 15 2024, 10:29 AM
First off: the bond market rallied after the CPI data came out and remains in much stronger territory vs yesterday. That said, the more context we ad...
Tue, May 14 2024, 4:45 PM
Bonds Ready to go Big in Either Direction
If you only had 1 day per month to allocate to watching the bond m...
Tue, May 14 2024, 4:31 PM
We've been waiting for tomorrow since April 10th. That's the last time the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. This is one of the two official ...
Tue, May 14 2024, 9:04 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) isn't in the same league as CPI when it comes to market movement potential, but as seen again this morning, it's no slo...
Mon, May 13 2024, 4:41 PM
What You See Today Won't Necessarily Be What You See Tomorrow
With essentially nothing on the event calendar...
Mon, May 13 2024, 4:24 PM
Last Thursday, mortgage rates merely had to hold steady in order to hit 1-month lows. In other words, Wednesday's rates were low enough to earn that ...
Mon, May 13 2024, 11:17 AM
In 2023 and especially 2024, the first bullet point in the bond market's job description is to focus on Core CPI above all other economic reports. In...
Fri, May 10 2024, 4:24 PM
In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, b...
Fri, May 10 2024, 4:24 PM
Higher Inflation Expectations Keep Yields Range-Bound
It's not as if bond yields stood any real chance of br...
Fri, May 10 2024, 12:36 PM
The following should be prefaced with the reminder that it is impossible to predict the future with much precision when it comes to bond market moveme...
Thu, May 9 2024, 4:45 PM
The most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the lowest levels in a month as of today, but there are a few "yeah buts" that make t...
Thu, May 9 2024, 4:43 PM
Bonds Boosted by Data and Well-Received Auction
Jobless Claims data doesn't normally move the market, but it...
Thu, May 9 2024, 11:09 AM
It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis. Thursday's initial jo...
Wed, May 8 2024, 4:47 PM
Yesterday, we took a look at the recent winning streak for mortgage rates. Specifically, they had moved lower for 5 straight days--a feat only achiev...
Wed, May 8 2024, 4:44 PM
Token Pull Back Keeps Things Boring
Coming into this week, we expected things to be boring and sideways afte...
Wed, May 8 2024, 11:41 AM
One of the notions surrounding the Treasury auction cycle is that the bond trading community tends to build in a "concession" ahead of any given aucti...
Tue, May 7 2024, 4:06 PM
Strong in The AM, Weaker in The PM
Bonds improved fairly steadily in the AM hours. After an initial glut of...
Tue, May 7 2024, 3:58 PM
There have been 3 winning streaks for mortgage rates in 2024 where the average rate has moved lower for at least 5 days and where the conventional 30y...
Tue, May 7 2024, 10:25 AM
The theme of "waiting" amid an empty calendar will be played out by the end of the week (if it's not already played out from most of the past year spe...
Mon, May 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Uneventful Start to What May be an Uneventful Week
Without any big ticket events or major news headlines, it...
Mon, May 6 2024, 4:16 PM
Mortgage rates did well last week, making it almost halfway back to the lower levels seen on April 9th. Why focus on April 9th? That was the last da...
Mon, May 6 2024, 11:09 AM
Last week was definitely important for the bond market. The key takeaway was the Fed's acknowledgement of elevated inflation in Q1 coupled with the a...
Fri, May 3 2024, 5:18 PM
Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Whether you view it as a perfectly logical reaction...
Fri, May 3 2024, 5:14 PM
It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic rep...
Fri, May 3 2024, 12:46 PM
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. ...
Thu, May 2 2024, 4:28 PM
The bond market--which dictates interest rates--had a generally favorable response to yesterday's update from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed didn...
Thu, May 2 2024, 4:26 PM
Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to...
Thu, May 2 2024, 12:20 PM
Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we c...
