Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:18 PM
Weak Data, Weak Auction, Weak Bonds
The simplest way to view today's moderate bond market weakness is as a p...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 11:43 AM
For the first time this week, the economic calendar is not completely empty. Granted, the S&P Global PMI data is not the heaviest of hitters, but it ...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:49 PM
Remarkably little happened in the bond market today. That means that mortgage lenders shouldn't have any obvious motivations to make big changes to t...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:48 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
Monday saw the lowest volume and lightest volatility of the year so far, but Tuesday turne...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 11:06 AM
As the market waits for next Wednesday's Fed announcement, there are a few other central bank updates to digest. This week's examples include the Eur...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 5:13 PM
The bond market (which dictates interest rates) hasn't had too many Mondays so far in January due to the holiday calendar. Today's example might have...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 4:58 PM
Modest Gains. No Particular Reason
The week got off to a slow start as far as the bond market was concerned....
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 12:17 PM
While bonds are starting the domestic session in slightly stronger territory and holding sideways so far, the broader trend is still toward higher yie...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 4:55 PM
So far, 2024 has been distinctly different from the end of 2023. November and December saw rates move lower at one of the fastest paces in decades. In...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 4:54 PM
Negative Trend Intact For Now
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and F...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 1:33 PM
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and Friday provides the latest evidence. While we're content to view most of...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 3:50 PM
Simple, Logical Cause and Effect
Things have been fairly boring for the bond market recently. We're in a ho...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 3:20 PM
It's Thursday during an era of interest rate volatility. As such, there's a decent chance that we'll find a discrepancy between Freddie Mac's weekly ...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 12:23 PM
It's a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. In a time when day to day movement is highly data dependent, we continue to see logical reac...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:58 PM
Rates have been gradually rising across the board in the past few weeks and mortgage rates are no exception. Yesterday, it was the market responding ...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:53 PM
Bonds Reacting to Data. Is It Justified?
Retail Sales came out at 0.6 vs a median forecast of 0.4 and rates...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 12:32 PM
This week's only major economic report arrived this morning and it wasn't good for bonds. December's retail sales came out at 0.6% versus a median fo...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:36 PM
The last few weeks have seen mortgage rates move in a far narrower range compared to the month and a half leading up to December 14th. That said, the...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:35 PM
Waller Unintentionally Sends Yields Higher
The most hotly anticipated calendar event at the start of this ho...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 11:34 AM
While last week saw a generally narrow range, bonds managed to reverse two weeks of losses with 10yr yields moving down from 4.05 to 3.95. The gains ...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's targe...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
Good Week For Bonds. Next One Could be Interesting
The bond market traded about as well as anyone could have...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 10:33 AM
PPI (Producer Price Index) measures inflation at the wholesale level. It is not known or respected as being a reliable or significant market mover, b...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds. Bonds react more to two monthly economic reports than any others. One of these is the jobs report which came out ...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 4:33 PM
What's Up With Wild Reaction to CPI?
For the level of anticipation heading into it, today's CPI release was ...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 12:20 PM
The initial reaction to this morning's CPI data has been mixed with weakness initially and now some resilience. Treasuries are underperforming, partl...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:42 PM
The first thing to understand about mortgage rates over the past 3-4 weeks is that they haven't been moving nearly as quickly as the preceding months....
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:41 PM
At Least We Won't Be Waiting For CPI Anymore
The present week has been a bit boring, for lack of a gentler t...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 12:34 PM
Last Friday's data (jobs report and ISM) marked the last significant calendar event until this week's CPI, due out tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The interve...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:36 PM
While the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate is still more than 1% below the long-term highs seen in October, it has been rising slowly and steadily in ...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:28 PM
Even Narrower Sideways Grind; No Reaction to Auction
Friday's trading session set a reasonably wide range re...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 11:12 AM
An uneventful overnight session has given way to roughly unchanged levels at the start of another day without CPI. The first 3 days of this week are ...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:16 PM
Range Finding Ahead of Auctions and CPI
The start of the new week saw bonds start at unchanged levels, rally...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:04 PM
Last week saw several key economic events attempt to exert some influence on interest rate momentum without any obvious winner. Rates ended the week ...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 12:19 PM
Bonds ended the previous week at the highest yields since before the December Fed announcement. The story behind the that story is that yields were r...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:19 PM
The big jobs report on the first Friday of any given month can be big business for interest rate volatility. Today's example was no exception, but le...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:17 PM
ISM Outshines NFP, But Neither Ended Up Leaving a Mark
It has happened before, but it's not common: those Fr...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 12:35 PM
Friday is off to a mixed start with the jobs report doing some damage and the ISM Services data undoing that damage. Things are pretty much that simp...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:30 PM
Lots at Stake With Friday's Jobs Report
Thursday's trading session provided an unpleasant but worthwhile rem...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:25 PM
Wednesday saw mortgage rates recover toward the lower recent levels in response to economic data that wasn't as upbeat as recent examples. That's imp...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 12:14 PM
Wednesday's data was helpful for the bond market--even if only modestly. Today's is the opposite. The weakness began in Europe with a swath of PMI r...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 5:21 PM
Proof of Data Dependent Concept
The first two days of the new year were shaping up to paint an unpleasant pi...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 4:08 PM
As of this morning, it looked like the theme for mortgage rates in 2024 would be up, up, and away--at least as far as the first two business days were...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 11:47 AM
As long ago as December 14th, we've had our eye on today's 10am economic data as the next reasonably important moment for the bond market. There simp...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates kicked off the new year by jumping to the highest levels since December 13th. That's not too remarkable considering rates were also at...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Bond Selling Suggests Caution, But We're Still Data Dependent
The bond market started off the new year with ...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 12:18 PM
Hindsight is frequently 20/20 when discussing recent market movement and this morning's weakness is an example that's worth considering. Heading into...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:32 PM
Uneventful End to an Eventful Year
2023 may be a year that we won't soon forget, but the past two weeks have...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:10 PM
Looking back at October when 30yr fixed mortgage rates were over 8%, a return to the roughly unchanged levels by the end of the year may have seemed l...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 9:59 AM
Today's abbreviated session (early close at 2pm ET) is already being dominated by year-end trading. With December marking the best month in 15 years ...
