Mon, Jan 9 2023, 3:32 PM
Decent Day Helps Legitimize Friday's Gains
Any time we see a strong move on NFP Friday with a hint of "snowb...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 11:32 AM
Last week brought a series of economic reports that took the bond market in both directions. Thursday's data pushed yields somewhat higher, but Frida...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:50 PM
The Federal Reserve (aka "The Fed") has a parrot problem, and it's on a crash course with economic reality... maybe. The Fed sets policies that impac...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:49 PM
ISM and NFP Team Up To Send Rates Sharply Lower
Bonds got off to a strong start today when the wage componen...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 9:50 AM
Here's a puzzler--at least at first glance. This morning's much-anticipated jobs report came out stronger than expected with nonfarm payrolls at 223k...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:32 PM
The most basic way to think about interest rate movement is to assume that a strong economy pushes rates higher and vice versa. There are many other ...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:24 PM
Bonds Push Back Against Stronger Employment Data, But Tomorrow is a Different Fight
Bonds got off to a weake...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 11:32 AM
The past two days of moderate gains have been "nice," but they were just a prologue to the more relevant opening days of 2023. For the last 2.5 weeks...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:11 PM
There are Fed Announcements, which involve rate hikes/cuts, press conferences, and updated rate forecasts after a 2 day meeting among Fed members. An...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:01 PM
Another Day Holding Modest Gains After AM Weakness
French CPI (of all the crazy things) helped bonds improve...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 11:17 AM
In 15 years of MBS Live, this may be the first time French CPI made a headline, but today, it's deserved. It's not so much that France is a critical b...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 4:00 PM
The bond market (which determines mortgage rates) has officially endured the frustratingly unique holiday trading environment that often creates undue...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 3:54 PM
Decent Gains Despite Headwinds
Bond market participants rushed back into the office today with volumes at th...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 11:04 AM
The holiday season was unmistakably marked by a strong bias toward selling in the bond market. All we could do was watch the weakness and hold out h...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 1:16 PM
Early Close; Light Volume and Month-End Could Cause Volatility
The early-close trading session at the end of...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 1:12 PM
So long 2022! Don't let the door hit you. You were the worst year for mortgage rates that most of us have seen in our lifetimes in terms of the pace...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates began the day very close to yesterday's latest levels. The average lender was just a hair higher. As the day progressed, US bonds fol...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:22 PM
Nice Gains, But No Particular Reason
This is how they get ya! It's a classic sales tactic. The bond market...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 12:48 PM
With Friday being a half day ahead of a 3 day weekend, today is essentially the end of the trading year. In fact, one could argue that December 15th ...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:37 PM
Late Day Leakage Keeps Things Gloomy For Bonds
We're witnessing the random walk of the winter holiday tradin...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:10 PM
Up until just the past few weeks, the go-to headline to quantify the pace of recent mortgage rate movement tended to reference rates being the lowest ...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 12:57 PM
Recent inflation data and a slightly softer stance from the Fed combined to crush the yield curve (10yr yields almost 90bps lower than 2yr yields in e...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and it's a frustrating time of year for those seeking a rational relationship with bonds. In t...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 5:21 PM
Frustrating Reasons For Weakness Are Still The Best Reasons We Have
Bonds were moderately weaker to start th...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 9:24 AM
Have you heard the one about "holiday trading mode" in financial markets? It continues to be in full swing for bonds with lower volume, lighter liquid...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 1:10 PM
The last two weeks of December are unlike almost any time of year in terms of market movement and what we should read into it, but there were several ...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 1:09 PM
Still Not Reading Too Much Into This Week's Weakness
Friday began with bonds reacting negatively to economic...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 10:12 AM
Every now and then, the market moves decisively in one direction or the other due to economic data, but the movement is the opposite of what most mark...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:58 PM
Rates have calmed down after some unfortunate and unexpected volatility at the beginning of the week. The average lender is offering just slightly hi...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:51 PM
Small But Surprising Reaction to Data. Cruise Control Remain Intact
This morning's stronger-than-forecast GD...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 12:46 PM
It's unfortunate that we're now more than 40 years away from Alec Guinness's "these aren't the droids you're looking for" line in Star Wars. It makes...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:36 PM
The headline could be read two ways. To be clear, the "recent rise" refers to Monday and Tuesday of this week. Before that, mortgage rates spent the...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:32 PM
Sideways to Slightly Weaker After Early Gains
It ended up being an uneventful day for bonds despite a handfu...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds proved they were capable of rallying this week with respectable gains early this morning following two days of relatively sharp losses. Unfortun...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 4:26 PM
What a difference a few days have made for mortgage rates, and in this case, not a good difference. The average lender was offering the lowest rates ...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 3:46 PM
Does Japan's New Rate Policy Change Anything For Us?
Today's dominant market mover occurred in Japan early i...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 11:30 AM
Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of Japan's central bank (BOJ), surprised the market with an earlier-than-expected shift to the BOJ's policy of yield curve c...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 4:56 PM
Very Flat Day After Opening Losses
MBS and Treasuries began the day in moderately-to-sharply weaker territor...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 3:52 PM
As much as it may seem that financial markets are driven by machines and code, human beings are still critical to day to day functioning. This is esp...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 11:57 AM
The ratio of market movement to justification is off the charts this morning (i.e. lots of movement, but not a lot of apparent justification). This i...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 5:13 PM
Bonds Recover Somewhat After Weaker Start
Position squaring and ongoing weakness in EU bond markets got US b...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 5:12 PM
It was a critical week for financial markets and especially for rates as investors digested the latest inflation data and the Fed's smaller rate hike....
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 11:51 AM
Around Thanksgiving and then again after the December meeting, you'll see us increasingly reference "holiday trading mode." This term is a bit of a c...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the bond market (specifically, mortgage-backed securities or MBS). When MBS improve, lenders are creating loans...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 3:33 PM
Bonds Stay Resilient as Traders Begin Punching Out For The Holidays
After starting flat, bonds were under pr...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 12:28 PM
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and then followed European bonds into weaker territory after the European Central Bank (ECB) upped its inflation...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:48 PM
It's often said here, but bears repeating: by the time the Fed officially announces a rate hike, that rate hike is old news and of no further conseque...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:20 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Unfriendly Dots Balanced by Peaceful Powell
As expected, the market's initial focus ...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 12:17 PM
It's Fed day and a 0.50% hike is a foregone conclusion. Markets have fully priced that in and multiple Fed speeches--including Powell 2 weeks ago--ha...
