Thu, Feb 15 2024, 4:43 PM
Reasons For Hope And Caution Heading Into 3-Day Weekend
First off, "hope" and "caution" have different meani...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 4:21 PM
While weekly mortgage rate indices are pointing out the sharp jump from last Wednesday's levels, daily rates have fallen twice in a row. The peak was...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 9:57 AM
Apart from CPI and NFP there are only a handful of other reports that truly deserve to be considered supporting actors in the current bond market dram...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 5:23 PM
As is often the case, there are a few ways to look at rates at the moment. In the medium term, we can still take heart in the fact that rates are abo...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 5:22 PM
Refreshing Resilience, But Not Guaranteed
On a positive note, it was refreshing to see the bond market make ...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 12:20 PM
Wednesday is shaping up to be a victory based on early trading, with bonds pushing back tentatively on yesterday's big sell-off. The emphasis is on t...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 3:55 PM
If it feels like there's been an inordinate amount of focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recently, today proved it was justified. It's not hard ...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 3:16 PM
Unfortunately, Bonds Did Exactly What They Were Supposed to Do Today
Over the course of the past two weeks, ...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 9:58 AM
It is a very straightforward morning for the bond market, but not in any sort of pleasant way. There was a lot at stake heading into today's inflatio...
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 3:16 PM
After spiking to the highest levels in over a month last Monday, rates have held eerily steady. To be fair, the steadiness started the following day ...
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 3:14 PM
No Way to Know What CPI Looks Like Until We See It
Monday was very much a placeholder in the grand scheme. ...
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 11:00 AM
Have you heard about the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? We can't shut up about it, largely because there's not much to talk about in terms of scheduled ...
Fri, Feb 9 2024, 5:19 PM
Near the end of last week, the title of the daily mortgage rate article was "Rates Right in Line With Long-Term Lows, But That Could Change on Friday....
Fri, Feb 9 2024, 4:14 PM
Uneventful Ceiling Defense
On a day where 10yr Treasury yields bounced multiple times at the 4.19% technical...
Fri, Feb 9 2024, 1:01 PM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the one thing we wait for after the jobs report comes out. After CPI, the one thing becomes the next jobs report (a...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 3:30 PM
Bonds Increasingly Look Like They're Waiting For CPI
It wouldn't be the first time and probably won't be the...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 1:22 PM
Mortgage rates were technically a hair higher today when compared with yesterday's latest offerings, but it's just as fair to say they've been unchang...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 12:55 PM
It's an interesting little interlude in the story of the bond market as yields wait to find out what's next after (probably) confirming long-term high...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market. As we saw last week, trading in the bond market can often be very exciting, even if that exci...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 5:04 PM
Fed Speakers on Repeat as Bonds Hit Snooze
After several days of heavy volatility, the bond market is drifti...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 9:35 AM
After rising roughly 2bps yesterday afternoon, bond yields dropped just over 2bps right at the start of the overnight session with buzz surrounding Mo...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 4:09 PM
The past two business days (Friday and Monday) accounted for the 3rd largest increase in mortgage rates since March 2020. Friday, specifically, was t...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 4:02 PM
Magical Mystery Rally
Whereas the bond market had obvious, individual motivations for all phases of the shar...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 12:59 PM
When bond yields began spiking abruptly after last Friday's jobs report, one of the immediate saving graces was the fact that the late January highs w...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:40 PM
Last Friday was the worst day for mortgage rates in over a year in terms of day-over-day movement (October 19th, 2023 remains the worst day in decades...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:23 PM
Big Losses Get Bigger After ISM Data
Bonds sold off again today, but this time in several distinct waves. T...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 9:55 AM
The bond market continues providing a great example big movement in the "little picture." Right out of the gate, if we examine just a slightly bigger...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Was The Jobs Report Real and What Are The Lasting Implications?
Is Friday's NFP number of 353k versus a 180k...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates were crushed by today's jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls (the main component of the report), came in significantly higher than expected...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 12:43 PM
It's not really an exaggeration to say "no one saw it coming" with respect to this morning's jobs report. NFP hit 353k versus a forecast of 180k. 10...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:10 PM
"Long-term" is a subjective measurement, but in this case, it refers to the the past 7 or 8 months. Today's mortgage rates dropped to levels that--un...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:08 PM
Best Levels in More Than a Month Ahead of Jobs Report
At one point this morning, 10yr yields were close to b...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 12:03 PM
It is undoubtedly ironic that the Fed just removed a sentence that had been in the statement since March 2023 regarding the banking system being sound...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 5:24 PM
This is a challenging day to attempt to understand the relationship between events and rate movement. At the most superficial level, rates are much l...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 5:18 PM
Lots of Volatility But Not Much to Do With The Fed
Today was indeed a Fed day and bonds definitely have a tr...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. been expanding at a solid pace. ...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 12:09 PM
In an interesting turn of events this morning, the Treasury refunding announcement has taken a back seat to econ data which has, in turn, taken a back...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates inched gently lower yet again today. That's the 4th day in a row without moving higher, but it's just as fair to say rates have been b...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:17 PM
Nice bounce back after AM Weakness
Job openings came in higher than expected this morning and immediately pu...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 12:39 PM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) didn't used to matter to the bond market. That changed rather abruptly in the past 2 years as mark...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates are in the midst of a bit of a winning streak, but it's about as small and as neutral as winning streaks get. Today was the third day ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:37 PM
Solid Start But Data Dependent
Bonds started the day in slightly stronger territory with gains in both Asia ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 12:16 PM
Monday is the only day of the present week without any major scheduled economic data. After that, it's game on with the increasingly meaningful JOLTS...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 4:12 PM
Over the past 2 months, speculation ramped up quickly regarding the pace and magnitude of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Next week brings the first Fed meetin...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 3:00 PM
Uneventful Week. How About The Next One?
Sure... rates moved a bit higher this week as the bond market cont...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 11:34 AM
Once upon a time, the bond market looked to the PCE inflation data as the definitive measurement of the Fed's success regarding the 2% target. One ...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 3:27 PM
What's Up With Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger GDP?
We're not huge fans of the GDP report as a consistent ma...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:45 PM
The average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate hit its highest level in exactly 6 weeks yesterday. Today's movement was in the opposite direction....
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 11:26 AM
Today's slate of economic data was/is the biggest of the week, by far. Results were mixed at 8:30am with higher jobless claims and weaker durable goo...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:20 PM
Today's mortgage rate recap is remarkably similar to yesterday's. Rates rose modestly from levels that were already near recent highs, thus technical...
