Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates began the day very close to yesterday's latest levels. The average lender was just a hair higher. As the day progressed, US bonds fol...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:22 PM
Nice Gains, But No Particular Reason
This is how they get ya! It's a classic sales tactic. The bond market...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 12:48 PM
With Friday being a half day ahead of a 3 day weekend, today is essentially the end of the trading year. In fact, one could argue that December 15th ...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 10:29 AM
What does someone look like when they started working in our business at age 15? Well, there’s always this interview last week with Robbie Chrisman (y...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:37 PM
Late Day Leakage Keeps Things Gloomy For Bonds
We're witnessing the random walk of the winter holiday tradin...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:10 PM
Up until just the past few weeks, the go-to headline to quantify the pace of recent mortgage rate movement tended to reference rates being the lowest ...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 3:02 PM
Stop me if you've heard this one before: home sales numbers continue to suffer due to a perfect storm of higher rates, lofty prices, and tighter purse...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 12:57 PM
Recent inflation data and a slightly softer stance from the Fed combined to crush the yield curve (10yr yields almost 90bps lower than 2yr yields in e...
Wed, Dec 28 2022, 8:23 AM
Have you ever heard the term “scuddle”? It’s an English term from the 1500’s meaning “to wash dishes,” something many of us did plenty of over Christm...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and it's a frustrating time of year for those seeking a rational relationship with bonds. In t...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 5:21 PM
Frustrating Reasons For Weakness Are Still The Best Reasons We Have
Bonds were moderately weaker to start th...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 1:13 PM
Annual home price increases fell back into single digits in October. Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA’s)...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 10:12 AM
Tired of playing Rummikub with the fam? (Why are those red 11’s always in short supply?) Let’s divert your attention and ease back into residential mo...
Tue, Dec 27 2022, 9:24 AM
Have you heard the one about "holiday trading mode" in financial markets? It continues to be in full swing for bonds with lower volume, lighter liquid...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 1:10 PM
The last two weeks of December are unlike almost any time of year in terms of market movement and what we should read into it, but there were several ...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 1:09 PM
Still Not Reading Too Much Into This Week's Weakness
Friday began with bonds reacting negatively to economic...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 11:52 AM
New home sales in November were a bit of a surprise, but a downward revision to October numbers accounted for much of the unexpected increase. The U.S...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 10:12 AM
Every now and then, the market moves decisively in one direction or the other due to economic data, but the movement is the opposite of what most mark...
Fri, Dec 23 2022, 9:24 AM
Why are you even at work today? Just so you can read, “It’s not a recession unless it’s from the Recession Region of France, otherwise it’s just Spark...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:58 PM
Rates have calmed down after some unfortunate and unexpected volatility at the beginning of the week. The average lender is offering just slightly hi...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:51 PM
Small But Surprising Reaction to Data. Cruise Control Remain Intact
This morning's stronger-than-forecast GD...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 12:46 PM
It's unfortunate that we're now more than 40 years away from Alec Guinness's "these aren't the droids you're looking for" line in Star Wars. It makes...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 9:58 AM
When I see lover’s names carved into the wood on a tree, I don’t think it’s sweet. I just think how surprising it is how many people bring a knife on ...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:36 PM
The headline could be read two ways. To be clear, the "recent rise" refers to Monday and Tuesday of this week. Before that, mortgage rates spent the...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:32 PM
Sideways to Slightly Weaker After Early Gains
It ended up being an uneventful day for bonds despite a handfu...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 1:08 PM
"No one" is a relative term when it comes to economic data. There are actually about 4 million people per year buying existing homes based on the ann...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds proved they were capable of rallying this week with respectable gains early this morning following two days of relatively sharp losses. Unfortun...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 11:05 AM
As Wells Fargo was smacked upside the head with a $3.7 billion fine by the CFPB, sports news included Mat Ishbia and the Phoenix Suns, and the Senate ...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 8:33 AM
Continuing declines in interest rates contributed to a substantial increase in applications for refinancing heading into the holiday season. This push...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 4:26 PM
What a difference a few days have made for mortgage rates, and in this case, not a good difference. The average lender was offering the lowest rates ...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 4:14 PM
Housing Starts, the jargon word used to refer to the inception of new residential construction, have a fairly logical relationship with building permi...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 3:46 PM
Does Japan's New Rate Policy Change Anything For Us?
Today's dominant market mover occurred in Japan early i...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 11:30 AM
Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of Japan's central bank (BOJ), surprised the market with an earlier-than-expected shift to the BOJ's policy of yield curve c...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 9:29 AM
Takeover and M&A rumors continue to swirl, and smarter companies are merely hiring production staff away from lenders rather than pay the baggage that...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 4:56 PM
Very Flat Day After Opening Losses
MBS and Treasuries began the day in moderately-to-sharply weaker territor...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 3:52 PM
As much as it may seem that financial markets are driven by machines and code, human beings are still critical to day to day functioning. This is esp...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 2:31 PM
The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)--typically referred to simply as "builder confidence"--is argued t...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 11:57 AM
The ratio of market movement to justification is off the charts this morning (i.e. lots of movement, but not a lot of apparent justification). This i...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 10:37 AM
Happy Hanukkah (or Chanukah), which began yesterday. Others are looking ahead to Christmas, with some companies closed Friday the 23rd and some closed...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 5:13 PM
Bonds Recover Somewhat After Weaker Start
Position squaring and ongoing weakness in EU bond markets got US b...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 5:12 PM
It was a critical week for financial markets and especially for rates as investors digested the latest inflation data and the Fed's smaller rate hike....
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 11:51 AM
Around Thanksgiving and then again after the December meeting, you'll see us increasingly reference "holiday trading mode." This term is a bit of a c...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 10:09 AM
This morning I Head East to Chicago for a handful of days. If you’ve wondered what a pilot sees when landing at O’Hare, here’s a mesmerizing video. (W...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the bond market (specifically, mortgage-backed securities or MBS). When MBS improve, lenders are creating loans...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 3:33 PM
Bonds Stay Resilient as Traders Begin Punching Out For The Holidays
After starting flat, bonds were under pr...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 12:28 PM
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and then followed European bonds into weaker territory after the European Central Bank (ECB) upped its inflation...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 9:36 AM
Anyone who has ever gone swimming in the ocean knows that, in a violent surf, the swimmer can’t spend time and energy in the waves near the shore bein...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:48 PM
It's often said here, but bears repeating: by the time the Fed officially announces a rate hike, that rate hike is old news and of no further conseque...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:20 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Unfriendly Dots Balanced by Peaceful Powell
As expected, the market's initial focus ...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
