Mon, Sep 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates rose modestly last week after hitting long term lows before the Fed announced its 0.50% rate cut. In not so many words, mortgage rates...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 11:39 AM
Summer has officially come and gone; the autumn equinox was yesterday. Columbus Day, Halloween, Veteran’s Day, and Thanksgiving are in the coming mont...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 10:42 AM
We closed last week with the idea of "buy the rumor, sell the news" seemingly being a good way to think about the time leading into and away from the ...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 4:20 PM
Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful
In terms of the realized volatility relative to potential volatili...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 3:42 PM
Credit where credit is due: the rate market did an outstanding job of getting out in front of the Fed rate cut as well as the changes to the Fed's rat...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 11:48 AM
“Someone asked me if I had plans for the fall. It took me a moment to realize they meant ‘autumn’ and not the fall of civilization.” The Autumn solsti...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 10:32 AM
Wednesday's Fed rate cut was the worst kept secret in the financial world for months, and the 50bp rate cut was increasingly suspected in the week lea...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 4:02 PM
MBS Easily Outperform Longer-Term Treasuries
Few market watchers would have guessed that MBS would have held...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 3:47 PM
Today's release of Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey took at bad problem and made it worse. Freddie's survey methodology means that today'...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 3:37 PM
The post-Fed overnight session was surprisingly calm. In fact, relative to the magnitude of yesterday's events and information, this is surely one of...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 11:58 AM
“A Native American, pirate, and Frenchman walk into a bar. The bartender says, ‘Gentlemen, hau, arrrrrrr, oui, today?’” No one has to sound out “s-u-m...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Lose Ground Despite Larger Fed Rate Cut
The Fed was either going to cut 0.50% or 0.25% today. It o...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 4:59 PM
We publish daily coverage of mortgage rate movement and have done so for nearly 20 years now. It's a great place to quickly check in on rate trends a...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 11:53 AM
“Q: What does a dyslexic pirate say? A: RRRRRRA!” Humor aside, many in our industry have faced adversity, dyslexia and more, and I received this note:...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 9:31 AM
There is special providence in a 50bp Fed rate cut. If it be now, 'tis not to come (until the next Fed meeting perhaps). If it be not to come, it wi...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 3:39 PM
What Matters in Wednesday's Fed Announcement?
The ongoing disagreement in the market regarding the size of W...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates have fallen nearly 2% from last year's peak. Much of that decrease can be viewed as the normal phenomenon of longer term rates getting...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 11:43 AM
Does it give you a sense of permanency if you think about how you’re looking at the same moon as pirates did 300-400 years ago? There’s a lunar eclips...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 11:30 AM
This morning's Retail Sales headline was stronger than expected, but the sub-components (analogous to something like core CPI as opposed to headline C...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 4:04 PM
Just Another Day of Waiting
Bonds started stronger, retraced back to 'unchanged' following the manufacturing...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 3:18 PM
The new week began on a relatively quiet note in terms of mortgage rate movement and the underlying bond market. There was modest volatility earlier...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 12:06 PM
So far in the new week, bonds have rallied a bit in the overnight session and sold off a bit after this morning's stronger NY Fed Manufacturing data. ...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 11:48 AM
The Pirate goes to the dermatologist and says, “Arrg, I got moles.” The dermatologist says, “Don’t worry, they’re benign.” The Pirate replies, “Arrg, ...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 4:16 PM
Fed Week Uncertainty Makes For Logical Consolidation
Bonds rallied sharply just over a month ago following a...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 3:55 PM
We've talked a lot about why the Fed rate cut will have no additional positive impact on mortgage rates next week. Everything the market can already ...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 11:44 AM
“I pay you to handle my loan and give me a good program with a competitive rate, not predict things you can’t.” At a recent event, a top originator to...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 10:39 AM
Today's only potentially relevant economic data was the 10am Consumer Sentiment data. This report comes out twice a month, once in "preliminary" form...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 4:34 PM
Modest Resistance, But No Big Bad Correction
Unless Friday's Consumer Sentiment data manages to surprise in ...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 4:19 PM
While it's true that there have only been 8 business days so far this month, it's also true that today is the only one of the 8 where mortgage rates h...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 11:52 AM
“Honey, what did you do today?” “Well…” People do some cockamamie stuff against all odds. What are the odds of a lender or LO retaining their client a...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 10:43 AM
Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement. So fa...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 3:42 PM
Does Today's Inflation Data Change Anything?
Bonds initially sold off following the higher-than-expected cor...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today despite a key inflation report coming in higher than expected. This is counterintuitive for anyone who's been ...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 11:47 AM
When I board an airplane, it is to go from point A to point B, like today from Denver to San Francisco. As long as it’s on time and somewhat economica...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 11:37 AM
Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other)...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 4:26 PM
Will The Market Still Care About CPI?
Ask anyone who's been following the rate market for many years what th...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds consistently take cues from economic data. Among the data, some reports are vastly m...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 11:54 AM
Every once in a while, a new loan program is “invented.” Lenders have to make sure they’re doing it correctly. (Don’t try this at home.) At events aro...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 10:36 AM
The new week is off to a nice, anti-climactic start. Monday morning's yields were slightly higher at first but fell into stronger territory by mid da...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 4:15 PM
Holding Last Week's Gains as Bonds Wait For Actionable Info
Monday was an anticlimactic session relative to ...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 3:55 PM
The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since April 2023 last week. That's down more than 1.25% over the past 5 months....
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 11:54 AM
Forget ATR. What about ATN? The Ability to Nap. Here in Denver, at The Mortgage Collaborative event, napping is not on the agenda… Every lender out th...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 11:21 AM
Despite heavy volume and volatility, Friday's trading session managed to conclude in roughly sideways territory. The new week is starting off on a ca...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 5:33 PM
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
We came into jobs report day expecting some clarity on ...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 5:15 PM
Mortgage rates have a long and storied history of making big moves on the day that the big monthly jobs report comes out. In that regard, today was f...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 12:11 PM
“The credit card company called me to report suspicious activity... I asked what kind of suspicious activity, and they said someone made a payment.” “...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 10:55 AM
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 wee...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut
Thursday ended up being fairly uneventful for bo...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 4:17 PM
Wouldn't it be nice if you could know what was going to happen with mortgage rates before it actually happened? Since the dawn of time in financial m...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 12:03 PM
Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data...
