Wed, Jan 29 2025, 2:01 PM
What follows is a comparison between today's newly released Fed announcement and the previous announcement. Additions are blue/underlined. Subtractio...
Wed, Jan 29 2025, 12:12 PM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but have pulled back as we head into the noon hour. If we put today's movement under a microscope,...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 4:23 PM
Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed
Bonds had a mixed reaction to this morning's Durable Goods data with st...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 3:22 PM
Both S&P Case-Shiller and the FHFA released national home price indices this morning. In both cases, November's prices were slightly higher than expec...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 3:07 PM
The average mortgage lender remained right in line with yesterday's levels despite a bit of weakness in the bond market. Lenders who improved their r...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 11:44 AM
“Last year I joined a support group for procrastinators. We haven't met yet.” Lenders and vendors are certainly meeting here in Austin. What’s going o...
Tue, Jan 28 2025, 9:02 AM
Bonds were weaker overnight as markets calmed down a bit after yesterday's DeepSeek frenzy. The 8:20am CME open brought in just a bit of buying, but ...
Mon, Jan 27 2025, 4:53 PM
Bonds Seek Lower Yields, But not Too Deeply Yet
On Friday night, a vast majority of market watchers had neve...
Mon, Jan 27 2025, 3:47 PM
There are two distinct patterns of behavior when it comes to rates interacting with stocks. The first could be called the "conventional wisdom" patte...
Mon, Jan 27 2025, 11:54 AM
“Dr. Oz says rubbing coffee grounds on your naked body will get rid of cellulite. Apparently, you can't do this in the downtown Austin Starbucks.” Her...
Mon, Jan 27 2025, 10:18 AM
NVDA has obviously been THE biggest driver of prevailing bull market in stocks. In 2024, its market cap increased by just over 2 trillion dollars. Fol...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 4:27 PM
Modest Gains Make For an Uneventful Week
If bonds had continued to sell off today, it would have made the we...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 3:46 PM
While there were only 4 business days instead of the customary 5, it's been an intensely boring week for mortgage rates. Tuesday started out right wh...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 3:16 PM
It's no mystery that 2024 hasn't been a stellar year for home sales and many other housing metrics. Today's release of December's Existing Home Sales ...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 2:52 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly mortgage application survey showed a modest decrease in refinance applications and an even more modest...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 12:03 PM
Due to the incredibly light calendar of economic data this week, this morning's combination of S&P PMI and Consumer Sentiment added up to the most con...
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 11:47 AM
“With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately. And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rate...
Thu, Jan 23 2025, 4:42 PM
Bonds Feeling Defensive Despite Trump's Demands For Lower Rates
Bonds lost ground this morning despite sligh...
Thu, Jan 23 2025, 3:39 PM
After several consecutive days without any noticeable changes, mortgage rates finally made a move today. Unfortunately, that move was higher. Thankfu...
Thu, Jan 23 2025, 11:54 AM
“Be decisive. Right or wrong, make a decision. The road is paved with flat squirrels who couldn’t make a decision.” Potential borrowers wonder why mor...
Thu, Jan 23 2025, 10:45 AM
Yesterday's recap began by calling attention to the "extreme dearth of big ticket economic data" this week. Thursday AM brought the weekly jobless cl...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 4:06 PM
Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and the Waiting Game
The extreme dearth of big ticket economic da...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 3:38 PM
Given that rates take cues from bonds and bonds take cues from economic data, it's perhaps no surprise to see an absence of volatility in rates on a w...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 12:23 PM
Bonds rallied yesterday, largely in an attempt to catch up with the movement that occurred on Monday when cash trading was closed (futures and other m...
Wed, Jan 22 2025, 11:47 AM
A fake image of Brad Pitt was used to scam a woman out of $850,000. (Hopefully every lender has set up policies and procedures regarding events like t...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 4:54 PM
Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains
This morning's commentary focused on a bond rally in response to an absenc...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 4:36 PM
Mortgage rates are driven predominantly by the bond market and bonds were able to clear up a few curiosities on inauguration day. Specifically, trade...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 11:40 AM
Please don’t touch my pizza! In a decision that has left countless fans disappointed,, including many in the mortgage ranks, Costco has decided to rem...
Tue, Jan 21 2025, 10:57 AM
Trump issued numerous executive orders on Monday, but conspicuously absent was any specific directive regarding tariffs. This was one of the key area...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 4:56 PM
Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful
Friday may as well have been a 4th weekend day for the bond ma...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and Friday was the least active day of the week for bonds. There were no major economic reports to cause...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 3:40 PM
While it would be technically accurate to point out a slight increase in January's homebuilder confidence (officially the National Association of Home...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 3:16 PM
The US Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report for December today. The report measures building permits, the start of the cons...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 11:47 AM
We’re more than halfway through January already, the MBA has lowered its 2025 projection to $2.1 trillion, and there is a sense of “wait and see” out ...
Fri, Jan 17 2025, 10:38 AM
It always bears repeating that "predictions are for suckers" and if there were a hard and fast rule about what markets do in certain scenarios, trader...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 4:29 PM
2 Straight Days of Gains?!
Not only have bonds managed to pull off a feat rarely seen in recent memory (back...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 4:01 PM
After having a great day yesterday, mortgage rates were able to add another "good" day today. The net effect brings the average lender's top tier 30y...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 11:55 AM
Do you know the interest rate on your loan? How about the age of your roof? Here in Austin, a big concern is too much growth: Austin has gained 1 mill...
Thu, Jan 16 2025, 11:48 AM
While it was never going to be on the same level as yesterday's CPI in terms of market movement potential, Retail Sales was likely to be today's most ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Lived Up To Market Moving Potential And Then Some
For every 14 or 15 times we approach a potential big-t...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 4:08 PM
We knew that today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was a hotly anticipated economic report that at least had the potential to give rates a big push, and ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 3:13 PM
There hasn't been meaningful change in economic data that measures activity in the housing and mortgage markets. In a nutshell, activity has been drif...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 11:48 AM
The folks here in Austin are sarcastically asking, “Who’s in your wallet?” Hopefully not Jennifer Garner or Samuel L. Jackson. The Consumer Financial ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 10:37 AM
On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market t...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 4:45 PM
Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers
Tuesday featured a much weaker PPI report that fail...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit the highest levels since May 2024 yesterday, even though the average was almost imperceptibly higher than last Friday's....
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 12:02 PM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) may not be nearly as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it has proven capable of producing l...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 11:54 AM
“The older I get, the earlier it gets late.” It was early to bed last night for me, early to rise, since today we are heading to Austin, Texas for the...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 4:39 PM
Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness
This week's relevant economic data is concentrated over the Tue-Thu t...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates rose to the highest levels since May 2024 by the end of last week following a stronger reading on the jobs report. Technically, the sam...
