Wed, Nov 13 2024, 11:45 AM
“When I was young man, I met a girl in Tennessee who turned out to be a moonshiner’s daughter. That was a long time ago. But I love her still.” The Co...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 10:20 AM
Bonds managed a moderate rally in response to this morning's inflation data. While it has since been mostly erased, it was as strong of a showing as ...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 4:35 PM
Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately)
Bonds sold off on Tuesday both during the domestic s...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 3:35 PM
Last Thursday and Friday offered some hope that the persistent move to higher rates was finally leveling off. It wasn't necessarily a rational hope, ...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 11:41 AM
What would lenders do without telephones and phone calls? In 1947 area codes were created by AT&T. Metropolitan areas were given low numbers so that p...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 9:24 AM
In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could b...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 6:14 PM
Back to Uneventful Already?
MBS are ending the trading day at almost perfectly unchanged levels--not the sor...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 5:22 PM
The bond market dictates day to day movement for all manner of interest rates, including mortgages. On election night, bond yields (another word for ...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 12:10 PM
Many believe, and with good reason, that there will be some turnover at the CFPB coming up. Here are the pay grades if you’re interested in a job. (I ...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 11:41 AM
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon w...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 5:12 PM
Breaking Down The Big Non-Fed-Related Rally
As intraday charts give way to daily charts in the coming weeks,...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 4:33 PM
There's a distinct risk that, even in the financial community, that people will look back on today's drop in interest rates and conclude it must have ...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains Since earlier in the year, labor market conditio...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 12:27 PM
This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 10:20 AM
You knew that Minnesota has 90,000 miles of shoreline, more than California, Florida, and Hawaii combined, right? Here at Servion’s Fusion 24 event in...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 5:29 PM
Does The Fed Still Matter?
Bonds sold off overnight as the reality of Trump's victory became apparent. Trad...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 3:03 PM
Mortgage rates spent the entire month of October moving higher at a fairly quick pace. Some of that had to do with stronger economic data, but at lea...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 2:36 PM
In today's weekly mortgage application survey from the MBA, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate only rose from 6.73 to 6.81%. Meanwhile, daily avera...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 11:24 AM
I went to a Vikings game with a friend and decided I wanted a drink. I wanted the big soda pop, but when I saw the price, I decided… A Minnesota will ...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 9:45 AM
Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being sur...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Bonds Brace For Election Results
It was an interesting round trip for the bond market today as overnight wea...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 4:00 PM
More often than not, mortgage lenders only set rates once a day. Their decisions are based on trading levels in the underlying bond market. Even thou...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 11:46 AM
I think that I read somewhere that there’s an election today (in addition to the Boeing strike ending). Certainly, the sun will come up tomorrow, and ...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 11:08 AM
Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 4:13 PM
Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility
While the average day of the past few weeks has involved elec...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 3:16 PM
Love it or hate it, election-related volatility has been having a big impact on the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates. Most of the volatility has...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 11:50 AM
Someone’s making money out there, right? Freddie and Fannie continue to earn billions, with a good chunk coming from g-fee income, and see hundreds of...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 10:08 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the sh...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 5:07 PM
Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 12k versus a median forecast of 113...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 4:50 PM
It is our longstanding policy to strictly avoid politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for ra...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 11:21 AM
Not only do most states “gain an hour” Sunday, but I have good news for all my readers. I am getting stronger with age. I can now lift $100 worth of g...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 10:06 AM
When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 4:53 PM
Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention?
It's been a weird week so far with a crazy combination o...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates rates moved moderately higher today, and while that leaves the average 30yr fixed rate only slightly higher than it was on Tuesday morn...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 12:16 PM
If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 11:45 AM
I recently went to my favorite local Mexican restaurant, and there was a sign in the window, “Sorry, we are closed due to short staff.” Someone had wr...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 4:35 PM
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given ...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 3:57 PM
The jobs report that came out at the beginning of October was a big wake up call for interest rates. Up until then, the prevailing belief was that th...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 11:58 AM
As I head from Denver to the Bay Area early this morning, I thought to myself, “Why are corn farmers great at eavesdropping? Because they have ears ev...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 11:26 AM
It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slight...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 4:40 PM
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates tend to be updated only once per day. Lenders set rates based on trading levels in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) which are essentia...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 11:46 AM
Heard in the hallways here at the MBA’s annual convention in December. “I wonder if the MBA’s volume estimate of $2.3 trillion for 2025 includes all o...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 10:18 AM
As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Doing What Bonds Do
Another week, another chance for bonds to do the only thing it seems like they kno...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 3:58 PM
It's no mystery that mortgage rates have had a terrible October. As of last Friday, the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rates were up to 6.90--a...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 11:47 AM
Thousands of lenders and vendors braved the gate lice to fly to Denver (the term for people who crowd around the gate at an airport, sometimes in an a...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 10:40 AM
After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From ...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 3:40 PM
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish
Bonds had a fine morning with overnight gains bringing yields in line with the...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 12:35 PM
Mortgage rates reached their highest level of the week on Wednesday and haven't really moved since then. Technically each subsequent day saw a micros...
