Fri, Sep 13 2024, 11:44 AM
“I pay you to handle my loan and give me a good program with a competitive rate, not predict things you can’t.” At a recent event, a top originator to...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 10:39 AM
Today's only potentially relevant economic data was the 10am Consumer Sentiment data. This report comes out twice a month, once in "preliminary" form...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 4:34 PM
Modest Resistance, But No Big Bad Correction
Unless Friday's Consumer Sentiment data manages to surprise in ...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 4:19 PM
While it's true that there have only been 8 business days so far this month, it's also true that today is the only one of the 8 where mortgage rates h...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 11:52 AM
“Honey, what did you do today?” “Well…” People do some cockamamie stuff against all odds. What are the odds of a lender or LO retaining their client a...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 10:43 AM
Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement. So fa...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 3:42 PM
Does Today's Inflation Data Change Anything?
Bonds initially sold off following the higher-than-expected cor...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today despite a key inflation report coming in higher than expected. This is counterintuitive for anyone who's been ...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 11:47 AM
When I board an airplane, it is to go from point A to point B, like today from Denver to San Francisco. As long as it’s on time and somewhat economica...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 11:37 AM
Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other)...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 4:26 PM
Will The Market Still Care About CPI?
Ask anyone who's been following the rate market for many years what th...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds consistently take cues from economic data. Among the data, some reports are vastly m...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 11:54 AM
Every once in a while, a new loan program is “invented.” Lenders have to make sure they’re doing it correctly. (Don’t try this at home.) At events aro...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 10:36 AM
The new week is off to a nice, anti-climactic start. Monday morning's yields were slightly higher at first but fell into stronger territory by mid da...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 4:15 PM
Holding Last Week's Gains as Bonds Wait For Actionable Info
Monday was an anticlimactic session relative to ...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 3:55 PM
The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since April 2023 last week. That's down more than 1.25% over the past 5 months....
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 11:54 AM
Forget ATR. What about ATN? The Ability to Nap. Here in Denver, at The Mortgage Collaborative event, napping is not on the agenda… Every lender out th...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 11:21 AM
Despite heavy volume and volatility, Friday's trading session managed to conclude in roughly sideways territory. The new week is starting off on a ca...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 5:33 PM
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
We came into jobs report day expecting some clarity on ...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 5:15 PM
Mortgage rates have a long and storied history of making big moves on the day that the big monthly jobs report comes out. In that regard, today was f...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 12:11 PM
“The credit card company called me to report suspicious activity... I asked what kind of suspicious activity, and they said someone made a payment.” “...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 10:55 AM
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 wee...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut
Thursday ended up being fairly uneventful for bo...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 4:17 PM
Wouldn't it be nice if you could know what was going to happen with mortgage rates before it actually happened? Since the dawn of time in financial m...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 12:03 PM
Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 11:47 AM
“If you were born in September, it's pretty safe to assume that your parents started their new year with a bang.” Are originators getting a “bang for ...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 4:20 PM
Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead
Wednesday ended up being almost exclusively about the Job Openi...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for the 2nd straight day on Wednesday with the average lender right in line with their lowest levels since August 5th. In ...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 12:09 PM
Market movement continues suggesting increased focus on labor-related economic data. This morning's JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover survey) is...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 11:53 AM
I don’t know what, exactly, separates irony, satire, or paradox. Whatever category this falls into, it’s a classic tale of biblical proportions. (Othe...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 8:14 AM
Interest rates continued their slow decline last week while application volume is inching up almost as slowly. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) ...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 4:03 PM
No Major Reaction to Data, But Data Remains Relevant
As with most "first weeks of the month," this one has p...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 3:24 PM
You never know what you're going to get on the days surrounding a 3 day weekend for financial markets, and that's doubly true when it corresponds with...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 11:39 AM
It was the third of September, a day I’ll always remember… Will September 18th be remembered as the day that the Federal Reserve lowers fed funds for ...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 10:28 AM
Remember last Friday? It was sort of "weird" due to enigmatic selling pressure in the bond market. Yields stretched up to the highest levels in more ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 4:31 PM
Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture
It was a deceptively interesting Friday for the bond ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 3:42 PM
Day to day movement has been subdued in mortgage rates recently, and now the week over week movement is just as uneventful. Friday's average top tier...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 11:48 AM
(In honor of labor, there is no Commentary tomorrow; Tuesday will be the next one. But in honor of August 31 being National Bacon Day, we celebrate wi...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 9:14 AM
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations calling for a core monthly reading of 0.2%. In fact, the unrounded number was 0.16+ w...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 5:00 PM
A Clear Reaction to Data Without Any Major Drama
After this morning's initial reaction to Initial Jobless Cl...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 4:15 PM
It continues to be the case that mortgage rates are moving in a very narrow range with minimal changes from day to day. For instance, in the past week...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 11:54 AM
Home sale numbers continue to retreat and in July the National Association of Realtors’® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell to its lowest lev...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 11:45 AM
“Why do psychics have to ask you for your name?” The future is always murky, at best, even to those who tell us that they can predict things. Fannie M...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 10:25 AM
There was a solid decade between 2010 and 2020 where weekly Jobless Claims data was completely inconsequential. The labor market had taken the hit fr...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 4:09 PM
Without Major Data, Bonds Remain Quiet
While it makes riveting analysis a challenge, it's not necessarily a ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 3:56 PM
On Wednesday, the average mortgage lender was quoting top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates at the 2nd lowest level in more than a year. That's cou...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 11:50 AM
How dedicated are you to mortgages? This dedicated? I hope not. Owners and CEOs of smaller companies are certainly dedicated to our business, but are ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 11:22 AM
It would have been hard for the present week to be any more of a boring, sideways grind than the previous week, but so far, so boring! Why do we say ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 8:04 AM
The mortgage market seemed to be in a wait-and-see mode last week as the Federal Reserve signaled a might, maybe, we are thinking about it, approach...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 5:12 PM
MBS Continue to Outperform, Sorta
Despite a nice little rally from weaker opening levels to stronger closing...
