Fri, Oct 6 2023, 11:18 AM
This week has brought a series of fairly simple mornings with the initial reaction to economic reports playing out in a logical direction. Monday: st...
Fri, Oct 6 2023, 10:43 AM
National MI turned heads yesterday by announcing its temporary increase to AUS conforming loan amounts, despite the official FHFA word not coming unti...
Thu, Oct 5 2023, 4:17 PM
Thursday's Rally Changes Nothing Ahead of Jobs Report
While bonds definitely had a logical reaction to this ...
Thu, Oct 5 2023, 3:33 PM
For the first time in nearly a month, the bond market (which dictates day to day mortgage rate movement) managed to string together two winning days i...
Thu, Oct 5 2023, 12:16 PM
Time for another installment of "finding a narrative to fit the price action." In other words, bonds aren't doing what we'd expect based on this morn...
Thu, Oct 5 2023, 10:04 AM
Hal M. writes, “Monday is a holiday. The observance reminded me of the small Italian parade we had in Maine on Columbus Day. All the marchers were und...
Wed, Oct 4 2023, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at new multi-decade highs, but only by a small margin over yesterday. This was counterintuitive at first glance because ...
Wed, Oct 4 2023, 4:15 PM
Surprisingly Calm and Logical Rally
Today's economic data came in either flat or noticeably weaker depending...
Wed, Oct 4 2023, 12:01 PM
Bonds had a scary overnight session with 10s hitting highs of 4.884 around 3am ET. They rallied a full 15bps over the next 6 hours, most recently wit...
Wed, Oct 4 2023, 10:27 AM
I head to Vancouver, WA, this morning for a Banner Bank event and will probably have the option of Wi-Fi on the plane. How is it that NASA is able to ...
Wed, Oct 4 2023, 9:07 AM
As mortgage rates continued to climb, mortgage applications took their biggest hit since mid-April. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Ma...
Tue, Oct 3 2023, 3:27 PM
Mortgage rates were already close to the highest levels in more than 20 years yesterday--an unpleasant milestone that was easily surpassed after today...
Tue, Oct 3 2023, 3:26 PM
"Higher For Longer" Fears Becoming a Reality After JOLTS
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) ...
Tue, Oct 3 2023, 1:24 PM
A tempest in a teapot or the start of an uprising? Redfin, the publicly owned Seattle-based real estate company with 50 offices nationwide, announced ...
Tue, Oct 3 2023, 11:25 AM
In the wake of the Fed announcement from 2 weeks ago, one key component of our bearish thesis was that bonds had to brace for the potential impact tha...
Tue, Oct 3 2023, 11:00 AM
How will you always know that this Commentary is not produced by some AI thingy? Because of mistakes like yesterday, leaving Illinois off the list of ...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 4:39 PM
The average didn't quite make it back to the multidecade highs seen last week, but the average borrower would see little--if any--difference in today'...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 4:39 PM
Bonds Blasted by Data and Stop-Gap
The stop-gap bill that averted the government shutdown was worth some ins...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 10:32 AM
As President Jimmy Carter celebrated his 99th birthday seven months into hospice, welcome to the 4th quarter! (Will lenders experience any “Q-4-ia”? S...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 10:05 AM
Nearly 2 weeks ago, the Fed announcement (specifically, the economic projections and dot plot) kicked off a repricing trend in the bond market otherwi...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 5:57 PM
It depends quite a bit on the lender in question, but at some point between yesterday morning and this morning, the average lender dropped rates at th...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty
Bonds improved moderately overnight, adding onto ...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 12:24 PM
The trading day began on a fairly positive note with a strong hand-off from Europe and reasonably friendly inflation data at 8:30am. After a few mome...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 10:25 AM
Shutdown or no shutdown, the National Park Service’s Fat Bear Week is approaching, focused on how these behemoths tip the scale. Here’s your tip of th...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 4:11 PM
Bonds Bounce Despite Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground overnight and logically added to the losses after the m...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 3:28 PM
The past few days have seen rates surge to new multi-decade highs with the average lender quoting 7.6+ for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios....
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 12:47 PM
Pending home sales failed to add a third month onto the mini rally it staged in June and July. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its P...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 12:09 PM
Bonds lost ground modestly overnight. Contrast that to the past few trading sessions that have seen gains in Europe followed by selling in the US. T...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 10:23 AM
Seen on someone’s laptop here in Phoenix: “If Pete Davidson can date a Kardashian, you can be a homeowner.” From a business viewpoint, if you think mo...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 5:10 PM
It's with no great pleasure (none of any kind, for that matter) that we find ourselves in a position to report, yet again, that mortgage rates have sa...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 3:36 PM
What is "Repricing" in The Broader Context, And How is it Moving Markets?
We've been here before and we'll b...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 12:26 PM
Normally, when the bond market is in a pervasive selling trend, we'll see a day or two of reprieve amidst the carnage. Frequently, such days are frie...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 10:44 AM
Today I head to Phoenix area for the AzAMP annual conference, and am reminded that, “Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.” The mortgag...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 7:12 AM
The highest mortgage rates in 20+ years drove another decline in mortgage applications during the week ended September 22. The Mortgage Bankers Associ...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 4:28 PM
In terms of day-over-day changes, today's mortgage rate movement was forgettable. The average borrower wouldn't see much of a difference from yesterd...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 4:25 PM
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish, No Real Reason
Bonds improved in the overnight session, but reversed course t...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 2:11 PM
August sales of newly constructed single-family homes failed to match the robust numbers from July but were significantly better than those a year ear...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 12:12 PM
The seemingly never-ending sea of red continues. And for good measure, this one began with a bit of hope in the form of an overnight rally that got 1...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 11:16 AM
Home prices have resumed their upward climb despite mortgage rates that have doubled post-COVID. According to Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 10:27 AM
As if lenders and vendors don’t have enough other stuff to worry about, the budgetary standoff in the U.S. doesn't look like it will abate soon, raisi...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 4:21 PM
The average lender was already very close to multi-decade highs for 30yr fixed mortgage rates last Thursday afternoon, but a modest recovery on Friday...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 4:10 PM
Sell Now and Wait For Something to Convince You to Buy
Bonds began the week with another move to long-term y...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 12:04 PM
We continue to anticipate a broadly sideways trend this week although that expectations is being put to the test in early trading. Yields in the long...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 10:00 AM
Are you gradually eating dinner earlier? Join the trend. Want to know another trend that isn’t so benign? Along the lines of the STRATMOR piece below,...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 5:48 PM
Mortgage rates actually recovered a bit on Friday as the underlying bond market experienced a modest correction after spiking to the weakest levels in...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 3:59 PM
Waiting For October
It seems like September only just arrived, but our sights are already set on October as ...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 12:17 PM
In a rather classic pattern, a hawkish read on the Fed gave way to international selling on Thursday. From there, a token correction was slightly mor...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 9:59 AM
Sometimes I send this Commentary out from some pretty nice places, sometimes not. Today comes from the tarmac at the Newark Airport, in Row 22, sittin...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 4:09 PM
Rates moved only moderately higher on Wednesday after the Fed rocked the bond market with its updated rate forecasts. To reiterate yesterday's analys...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 4:07 PM
New Yield Highs After Post-Fed Follow-Through and Econ Data
Any time the market goes to sleep on a Fed day i...
