Tue, Sep 3 2024, 10:28 AM
Remember last Friday? It was sort of "weird" due to enigmatic selling pressure in the bond market. Yields stretched up to the highest levels in more ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 4:31 PM
Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture
It was a deceptively interesting Friday for the bond ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 3:42 PM
Day to day movement has been subdued in mortgage rates recently, and now the week over week movement is just as uneventful. Friday's average top tier...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 11:48 AM
(In honor of labor, there is no Commentary tomorrow; Tuesday will be the next one. But in honor of August 31 being National Bacon Day, we celebrate wi...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 9:14 AM
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations calling for a core monthly reading of 0.2%. In fact, the unrounded number was 0.16+ w...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 5:00 PM
A Clear Reaction to Data Without Any Major Drama
After this morning's initial reaction to Initial Jobless Cl...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 4:15 PM
It continues to be the case that mortgage rates are moving in a very narrow range with minimal changes from day to day. For instance, in the past week...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 11:54 AM
Home sale numbers continue to retreat and in July the National Association of Realtors’® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell to its lowest lev...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 11:45 AM
“Why do psychics have to ask you for your name?” The future is always murky, at best, even to those who tell us that they can predict things. Fannie M...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 10:25 AM
There was a solid decade between 2010 and 2020 where weekly Jobless Claims data was completely inconsequential. The labor market had taken the hit fr...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 4:09 PM
Without Major Data, Bonds Remain Quiet
While it makes riveting analysis a challenge, it's not necessarily a ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 3:56 PM
On Wednesday, the average mortgage lender was quoting top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates at the 2nd lowest level in more than a year. That's cou...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 11:50 AM
How dedicated are you to mortgages? This dedicated? I hope not. Owners and CEOs of smaller companies are certainly dedicated to our business, but are ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 11:22 AM
It would have been hard for the present week to be any more of a boring, sideways grind than the previous week, but so far, so boring! Why do we say ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 8:04 AM
The mortgage market seemed to be in a wait-and-see mode last week as the Federal Reserve signaled a might, maybe, we are thinking about it, approach...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 5:12 PM
MBS Continue to Outperform, Sorta
Despite a nice little rally from weaker opening levels to stronger closing...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 4:59 PM
It was another generally uneventful day for the bond markets and, consequently, for the mortgage rates that take cues from bond market movement. Whil...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 11:51 AM
Two major home price indices show home price appreciation is still running well above historical norms. However, increases in the S&P CoreLogic Case-S...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 11:41 AM
Why can’t lending be simple… like “The Revolutionary Haircutting System You've Come to Love!” They even have the forethought to take the summer off. V...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 10:13 AM
Bonds are under a bit of pressure this morning with a modest extension of weakness that began in European trading hours. While this morning's selling...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 5:00 PM
Uneventful Monday Despite AM Volatility
Durable goods data made for a semblance of volatility this morning, ...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rate movement is tied to activity in the bond market and like many things in the world of finance, the bond market depends on participation f...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 11:38 AM
A pair of scissors is not trivial. Did you read the story on how thirty-six flights were cancelled, and 201 delayed, at a Japanese airport after a pai...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 9:10 AM
The Durable Goods report is a somewhat inconsistent report in terms of its ability to influence the bond market. There are definitely examples of big...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 4:25 PM
Closing Near Week's Best Levels
If Friday was going to offer any example of scheduled events causing movemen...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 3:47 PM
Every year, the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") gathers in Jackson Hole, WY with a bevy of other central bankers and academics to discuss and comment ...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 11:41 AM
“There's a fine line between a numerator and a denominator. Only a fraction of people will find this funny.” Our business is a business of numbers. My...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 10:19 AM
It's been a slow, uneventful week so far in terms of scheduled events. Even though we certainly saw some elevated volume and volatility over the past...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 5:08 PM
It May Have Seemed Like a Bad Day, But...
Ever since topping out last Thursday morning, bonds have been stea...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 4:29 PM
After moving lower for 4 straight days to hit the 3rd lowest levels in more than a year, mortgage rates bounced just a bit higher today. This was the...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 2:39 PM
Existing Homes (the jargon word for a home that has already been owned and occupied) represent a much larger piece of the home sales pie compared to n...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 11:55 AM
“Great news! I got the whole plane to myself! The large group going to the psychic’s convention all cancelled at the last minute.” (No, this didn’t ha...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 10:20 AM
There is an ongoing bias toward better buying and lower yields in the bond market in spite of a string of decent economic reports in the past week. J...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:19 PM
Bonds Snooze Through Fed Minutes
At first glance, and based on conventional wisdom, today's most relevant ca...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:04 PM
Although the day to day changes in mortgage rates have been modest recently, the slow and steady improvement has brought the average top tier 30yr fix...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 12:18 PM
Today brought the release of the first benchmark revision to the payroll data through March 2024. It caused widespread confusion both before and afte...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 11:32 AM
This morning, I head from Los Angeles to Orlando, FL for the big NAMMBA Connect event. I received this question. “Rob, in your travels, are you hearin...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 8:21 AM
Two weeks ago, we saw a sudden surge in refinancing activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that, during the week ended August 9, it...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:17 PM
What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions?
When it was limited to social media, it was one thing, but alarming headlines regarding seemingly under-...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:11 PM
File today under "nice." While it wasn't amazing, significant, or even the byproduct of any interesting events, mortgage rates managed to drift modes...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 11:52 AM
Sometimes things are confused with other things. (What do racoons think of Tesla trucks? Those trucks are easy to make fun of.) There isn’t a lot of c...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 10:09 AM
While there will certainly be some excitement at some point in the future (possibly even the near future), and while we are already well acquainted wi...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 3:52 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Monday started slow and stayed slow throughout. MBS held well within the narro...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 3:42 PM
After the intense volatility seen earlier in August, the average change for mortgage rates on any given day has been shrinking. Last week was a mere s...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 11:35 AM
A quick note for anyone coming to the California MBA’s Western Secondary via LAX and taking a ride share to the venue: grab the lime green shuttle bus...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 11:07 AM
In past examples of imminent shifts in Fed policy, the late August Jackson Hole symposium has been a relevant--and sometimes substantial--market mover...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:54 PM
Calmer Week, But Are Storms Brewing?
By the time this week's CPI data came in as expected, it was highly unl...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:17 PM
Mortgage rates had a much calmer week this week compared to the previous 2. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held a fairly narrow range between 6...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:21 PM
At first glance, the first half of the trading day has been volatile for the bond market, but at second glance, trading levels are just returning in l...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:12 PM
Residential construction slowed in July. Both the rate of permitting and of housing starts were down from the prior month and starts were the worst in...
