Wed, Feb 19 2025, 11:45 AM
So, you drive across town to a gym to walk on a treadmill? There are always interesting and strange things going on out there. Huh? The Florida’s gove...
Wed, Feb 19 2025, 10:34 AM
Bonds extended yesterday's selling streak in the overnight session, but not in an alarming or serious way. Momentum reversed at 9am without any clear ...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 4:52 PM
Bonds Give Up Friday's Gains
Bond market volume was a little better than half of its recent average today--s...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 4:24 PM
Mortgage lenders were unable to update their rates yesterday as the bond market was closed for the Presidents Day holiday. Three day weekends can occ...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 11:45 AM
This weekend I spent a little time in the Miami Airport and overheard two people discussing how they were waiting for a builder in Tennessee to finish...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 11:33 AM
Traders have done a reasonably good job of making it back to the office after the 3-day weekend. Volumes are almost in line with last Tuesday (also a ...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 5:12 PM
Paradoxical Rally Gets Logical After Retail Sales
If yesterday's PPI-driven rally was a paradox, today's con...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 3:20 PM
The final two days of the present week weren't on many bingo cards as of Wednesday afternoon. At the time, rates were jumping higher in response to i...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 2:47 PM
In this week's update on mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), purchases continued a modest retreat but refinance demand ...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 11:53 AM
What a difference the past two mornings have made for a bond market that was seemingly on the ropes on Wednesday. After yesterday's paradoxical (thoug...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 11:25 AM
As rumors of the demise of HMDA reporting swirl, as well as a 50 percent reduction in HUD headcount and actual VA cuts, think about this the next time...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 4:36 PM
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Bond Rally?
PPI may not be as heavy a hitter as CPI on average, but one c...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates jumped quickly higher yesterday following the higher inflation reading in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Now today, rates have complet...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 11:45 AM
Capital markets participants around the world breathed a sigh of relief when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that President Donald ...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 9:07 AM
This morning's econ data included weekly jobless claims, which came in roughly in line with forecasts, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) which was a ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 4:50 PM
CPI Came in HOT and Bonds Reacted Logically
There's remarkably little else to observe beyond this morning's ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 3:36 PM
Today's mortgage rate movement is very straightforward. Unfortunately, it's also marked by a straight line toward higher levels--in this case, the hi...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 12:05 PM
With the whirlwind of Trump Administration news (Jonathan McKernan to lead the CFPB, playing hardball in Gaza, ending penny production, pardoning form...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 11:25 AM
We know that bonds take a majority of their economic data cues from two reports: NFP and CPI. We knew that today's CPI was critically important in com...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 3:59 PM
What to Expect From Wednesday's Inflation Data
Bonds lost ground overnight in sympathy with European bonds. ...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 3:14 PM
Any recap of financial news headlines will likely mention Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony today. Some efforts could even be made to link t...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 11:49 AM
Hah! Just kidding… But did you think, “Oh no!” or “Yippee!” when you saw that subject line? The ups and downs of the Consumer Finance Protection Burea...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 11:10 AM
With Tokyo closed for a holiday, overnight Treasury trading was limited to futures markets until 2am ET. Yields opened about 1bp higher in Europe and...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 4:21 PM
Little Changed After Early Rally and Steady Selling
Monday ended up being a relative non-event for the bond ...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 202...
Mon, Feb 10 2025, 12:02 PM
Perhaps the most notable market-related headline over the weekend was Trump's pre-announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (in addition to ex...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 3:00 PM
Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI
The first order of business this morning was to reconcile the weaker NFP...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 12:55 PM
Friday brought the release of the big jobs report which is historically more likely than any other monthly economic report to cause the biggest pops o...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 11:51 AM
“The San Diego Padres visited an orphanage in Mexico. ‘It's really sad to see their faces with no hope,’ said Juan, age 9.” In other San Diego news, O...
Fri, Feb 7 2025, 10:15 AM
As always, the jobs report matters. Today, we're seeing an obvious reaction to a fairly minimal miss (143k vs 170k f'cast in the headline job count). ...
Thu, Feb 6 2025, 3:20 PM
Yesterday was notable for being the first day in more than a week to offer any excitement for rates. More notably, that excitement was the good kind....
Thu, Feb 6 2025, 11:51 AM
“Nothing says, ‘I mean business’ than using a shopping cart at the liquor store.” We’re already 10 percent through with 2025, and residential lenders ...
Thu, Feb 6 2025, 9:42 AM
Coming off yesterday's solid rally, the bond market underwent a modest correction in the overnight session. Most of the gains remain intact, but the ...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 4:03 PM
Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data
There are plenty of moving pieces at the moment when it comes to assi...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 3:35 PM
There are two main styles of measurement when it comes to keeping track of mortgage rates: daily and weekly. Sometimes, the differences in methodolog...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 2:55 PM
The recent absence of volatility in day-to-day mortgage rate movement has been an easy target for light-hearted indignation among market watchers. Bu...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 11:40 AM
I know where to go when this Commentary writing gig grows stale. Wanna make 30 clams an hour? Costco’s hiring! (Remember when lenders and originators ...
Wed, Feb 5 2025, 10:40 AM
To say the very least, there are more moving pieces to consider at the moment when it comes to the narrative guiding volatility and momentum in the bo...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 4:39 PM
Bonds Rally Back to Prevailing Range
The only moderately inconvenient part of the day was the morning hours ...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 4:26 PM
If you like your mortgage rate movement boring and minimal, this week's for you (and last week, and the week before that). Going all the way back to ...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 11:46 AM
How’s your ability to predict the weather? Apparently not good if you’re a groundhog. It is not hard to predict how you’ll hear from the IRS, if you d...
Tue, Feb 4 2025, 10:32 AM
Bonds initially drifted into slightly weaker territory in the overnight session, but began bouncing back just after 9am ET. All this in spite of a qu...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 4:21 PM
In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways
If you are following along with intraday marke...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 4:10 PM
We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new ta...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 11:52 AM
Where should we begin this week? There’s President Trump making good on one of his campaign promises over the weekend, and it wasn’t ending Russia’s a...
Mon, Feb 3 2025, 10:45 AM
As we discussed heading into the weekend (and the likely official tariff announcement), the only recent, conclusive track record the market has for ta...
Fri, Jan 31 2025, 5:01 PM
Reasonably Reserved Reaction to Tariff Headlines
If you were just watching headlines and making note of MBS ...
Fri, Jan 31 2025, 4:33 PM
For all of the news that seems to be highly likely to cause volatility for rates, the market reaction ended up playing out on a very small scale. The ...
Fri, Jan 31 2025, 12:16 PM
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations with the annual core PCE price index coming in at 2.8% and the monthly core coming in ...
Fri, Jan 31 2025, 12:02 PM
Here in Las Vegas, I asked a German girl if Germans are afraid of numbers. She said 9. Numbers are interesting, as we will find out with the declared ...
