Tue, Feb 14 2023, 3:11 PM
The Fed generally wants annual inflation to be around 2% at the core level. "Core" is fancy market jargon for an economic metric that excludes some o...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 10:12 AM
I am in Reno today, Spokane tomorrow, but I spent much of last week in Chicago which is very much a melting pot of languages. One can walk down the st...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 9:53 AM
Given that today's bond trading volume has already eclipsed yesterday's, it's fair to say traders were every bit as anxious to trade this data as we e...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 5:20 PM
Before you let the promise of volatility alarm you, keep in mind that it cuts both ways. In other words, mortgage rate volatility can result in rates...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 4:14 PM
Which CPI Number Matters Most and How Wide is The Potential Range of Reactions?
Monday turned out to be an i...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 1:03 PM
Black Knight’s Mortgage Origination’s Market Monitor confirms that the surge in rate lock volumes noted earlier in the month continued through the e...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 12:11 PM
Bonds got a good amount of selling out of the way last week as markets finally picked up what the Fed has been putting down for months. All it took w...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 9:59 AM
Tomorrow is Valentine’s Day, traditionally associated with love. But on the opposite side of the spectrum, an Ohio animal shelter is offering to write...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 4:51 PM
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Keep Fading; Cue The CPI Anxiety
This morning's commentary headline was "if bonds aren't rallying, the...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 11:25 AM
At the risk of repeating a common thesis in recent days, bonds had a choice to make at the end of January. The decision was whether or not a rally of...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 9:17 AM
As I type this piece on Friday morning, I am at the O’Hare aerodrome for a flight from Chicago to San Francisco. O’Hare is packed and humming… What ec...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 3:11 PM
Gains Evaporate After Weaker Auction; Sideways Volatility Expected Ahead of CPI
CPI, NFP, CPI, Fed Day, NFP,...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 1:58 PM
In general, this has been a week of correction and reversal for mortgage rates. After hitting the lowest levels in more than 4 months last week, they...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 12:17 PM
The order of business this week has been fairly simple. The market had been telling itself that the Fed would end up cutting rates by the end of 2023...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 9:43 AM
As noted in yesterday’s commentary, mergers and acquisitions of lenders are in the news across the nation. For curious lenders, it is good to have a g...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 4:32 PM
Today's mortgage rate recap is largely similar to yesterday's--not because the same things happened, but rather because the bigger stories and bigger ...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Strong Auction Helps, But Not Enough to Get Rates Back Into The Recent Range
Without much economic data this...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 9:57 AM
One of the biggest uncertainties of the week was resolved on Tuesday with Fed Chair Powell answering questions about the policy outlook without any re...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 9:56 AM
“Where can you always find money? In the dictionary.” Plenty of lenders and finding the money to buy other companies while smaller ones are looking fo...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 8:25 AM
Refinancing pushed the volume of mortgage loan applications to one of its biggest week-over-week increases in ten months, during the period that ended...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 4:35 PM
The majority of January was characterized by sharp decline in mortgage rate volatility and the lowest rates in several months, the first week of Febru...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 3:19 PM
Bonds Tried (And Failed) to Sustain Post-Powell Rally
After much anticipation and defensive positioning, the...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 2:08 PM
The FHFA and S&P Case Shiller published home price index data last week for the month of November. Both showed moderate month-over-month declines off...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 9:44 AM
“Ain’t I rough enough? Ain’t I tough enough?” Ain't I rich enough? In love enough?” So Mick Jagger sang. This can apply to many parts of life, but in ...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 9:11 AM
In the wake of last week's strong economic data on Friday and follow-through weakness in overseas markets, traders are gearing up for additional Fed r...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates were already under quite a bit of pressure on Friday following the stunningly strong jobs report in the morning. Strong economic data ...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:23 PM
Suddenly Scared About Powell and Supply
Most of today's market movement was in the books within the first ha...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 1:36 PM
Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor for December highlights a continuation of recent home price declines, an overview of current loan performances, rate l...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:50 AM
I travel a fair amount via commercial airplane. (Greetings today from Ft. Lauderdale; this afternoon it’ll be Chicago.) But forget traveling in heavie...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:47 AM
Friday's strong jobs report and ISM data caused obvious, immediate problems for rates, but bonds held their ground fairly well all things considered. ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:34 PM
Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more grow...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 12:34 PM
While we may not have a great explanation or even the capacity to believe it, nonfarm payrolls came in at 517,000 this morning versus a median forecas...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 9:31 AM
Fun with numbers! 1: the number of Chinese surveillance balloons over Montana. (That we know of.) Did you know that the last day of 2023 is 123123? (Y...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates responded favorably to yesterday's press conference with Fed Chair Powell. We discussed that move in detail in yesterday's commentary:...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe
US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intentio...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 11:21 AM
Today's big story is the European bond market's reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The hike was as-expected, but the ECB also ...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 9:54 AM
Happy Groundhog Day, where the rodent saw its shadow this morning, so plan on six more weeks of winter. There’s an old Yiddish proverb “We plan, God l...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:48 PM
For some, this will be old hat. For others, there's a mystifying dynamic that demands explanation. The confusion stems from years of being condition...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:08 PM
Markets Surprisingly Surprised by Unsurprising Powell Comments
We were pretty sure we knew what Powell would...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 11:44 AM
Long gone are the days where the market waits to find out he size of a rate hike/cut. The current regime clearly communicates these things ahead of t...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 9:48 AM
I’ve never seen my cat Myrtle fly commercial. That aside, time “flies” by, Tom Brady retired again, and here’s a trivia question for your friends and ...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 9:41 AM
Mortgage activity slowed significantly last week, pulling the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA’s) Market Composite lower after three weeks of gains...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have been roughly in line with last week's latest levels at the beginning of the current week. That means they're fairly close to the ...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:48 PM
As rates spiked and sales contracted at the fastest pace in decades last year, we knew the post-pandemic surge in home prices was set to reverse. By ...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:19 PM
What to Expect From Fed Day
Markets can see the changes in inflation data and traders are eager to refine th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 9:14 AM
Does technology always trump personal skills? Sometimes. But not all the time. Good LOs use the technology that best suits them in combination with th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 8:54 AM
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is an economic report that was never on our radar as a top tier market mover in the past. Then in early 2022, Fed Cha...
