Fri, Sep 1 2023, 3:47 PM
What's Up With Friday's Sell-Off?
Bonds lost ground today and it definitely wasn't as simple as traders havi...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 11:50 AM
Bonds rallied out of the gate after the jobs report came out this morning. Perhaps it was the fact that 187k isn't much higher than the 170k forecast...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 10:06 AM
Some things in life are fleeting, like a frosty glass of rose, enemy troops singing Christmas carols in the trenches during WWI, or the time when lend...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 4:36 PM
Today's mortgage rates remain at levels that are much higher than most of the past few decades, but refreshingly lower than most of the past 3 weeks. ...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 4:35 PM
Pssst. Some People Think NFP Could be Even Weaker Than Forecast
This morning's economic data came out slight...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 11:20 AM
Another morning, another set of economic reports with the power to move markets. Today's examples included jobless claims coming in at 228 vs 235k, c...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 9:37 AM
The great thing about inflation is if you spend the same on groceries, the bags are lighter and easier to carry home. Restaurants and food companies r...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 4:38 PM
Bond Rally a Victim of Its Own Success
This morning's economic data was bond-friendly, but not as unequivoca...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 4:25 PM
In the space of just 2-3 short days, mortgage rates have moved from multi-decade highs to the lowest levels in 3 weeks. The catch is that the last 3 ...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 12:25 PM
On a week fraught with important economic data, the results continue coming in on the weaker side of forecasts and bonds continue to like it. While y...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 10:02 AM
Studies have shown that women who have large backsides live much longer than the men who comment on them. Studies also show that there are three basic...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 8:16 AM
After falling for five straight weeks, mortgage applications finally gained a little ground last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said i...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 4:20 PM
Is The Top In?
No one had much to say or think about JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) over...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 3:34 PM
The role of economic data in determining mortgage rate momentum is hard to overstate these days and today provided another solid example. This mornin...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 11:07 AM
While bonds may have started the day drifting into slightly weaker territory, losses have quickly shifted to gains in the wake of this morning's big t...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 10:18 AM
“What did the happy real estate agent put on her sign? I have lots to be thankful for.” (Feel free to use that gem at your next presentation at Sotheb...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 3:43 PM
Mortgage rates hit fresh multi-decade highs last week with many lenders hitting the mid-7% range earlier in the week for top tier conventional 30yr fi...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 3:35 PM
Fairly Uneventful But Perhaps Not For Long
The week began with a perfectly normal example of a summertime Mo...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 11:25 AM
The "data dependent" waiting game is nothing new, even if there have been some changes in how the market has interpreted data. Specifically, the days...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 10:31 AM
As the rumor spreads that millions of women are lined up to be weighed at the Fulton County Jail, we head into late summer and early autumn, rarely a ...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 4:55 PM
Heading into the day, the market held out the possibility of heightened volatility surrounding a speech from Fed Chair Powell at the annual Jackson H...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 3:11 PM
Absolutely No Surprises From Powell
What a letdown, but also what an unsurprising speech from Fed Chair Powe...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 1:13 PM
With the mortgage industry in the throes of its worst era since the GFC (Great Financial Crisis), comparisons are inevitable. If you didn't live thr...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 12:00 PM
What color of front door “sells” the best? Some say black, although in a related topic red is the most popular. Doesn’t that mean red sells the best i...
Thu, Aug 24 2023, 4:19 PM
Wednesday proved to be one of the 3 best days for mortgage rates in months. The catch? Those "great" days are most likely to be seen in the wake of a...
Thu, Aug 24 2023, 4:16 PM
Bonds Opt to Avoid Exuberance Ahead of Powell
After Wednesday's big rally ended with bonds near their best l...
Thu, Aug 24 2023, 11:55 AM
With the morning economic data having come and gone with little fanfare, the most significant role today can fill is as a placeholder. It offers the ...
Thu, Aug 24 2023, 10:51 AM
“I’m not a fan of elevator music. It’s bad on so many levels.” Whether or not you think that the environment and value of owning stock in lenders and ...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 5:00 PM
Mortgage rates dropped at the fastest pace in weeks today, but that isn't saying much in and of itself considering rates have only moved lower 3 times...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 4:51 PM
Snowball Rally, But Does it Change Anything?
After more than 2 weeks of relentless selling that took yields ...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 2:52 PM
Sales of newly constructed homes appear to be benefitting from the very lack of inventory that is stifling existing home sales. July’s sales of pre-...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 11:35 AM
Any time bonds are as oversold as they were yesterday, there's a better chance of a bigger corrective rally when a reason to rally finally presents it...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 11:02 AM
As the Western Secondary winds up, and weary capital markets staff & vendors head home from Orange County, perhaps humming “California Gurls,” working...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 10:54 AM
Mortgage interest rates rose again last week, reaching the highest level in nearly a quarter century and further sidelining mortgage borrowers. The Mo...
Tue, Aug 22 2023, 4:43 PM
When it seems that we've only known pain in the mortgage rate world recently, the absence of pain is a welcome relief. Such was the case today with t...
Tue, Aug 22 2023, 4:36 PM
Absence of Additional Weakness
Today's trading session doesn't really qualify as a strong one for the bond m...
Tue, Aug 22 2023, 12:33 PM
Recall the title of last Friday's recap: "This is How They Get Ya." There is no "they," and no one is really trying to deceive you. Rather, the inte...
Tue, Aug 22 2023, 11:52 AM
Sales of existing homes slipped in July even as median prices sustained their record-high levels. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said th...
Tue, Aug 22 2023, 9:59 AM
Phantom Planet sang, California here we come, right back where we started from.” Many here at the Western Secondary have spent their entire career in ...
Mon, Aug 21 2023, 3:42 PM
Interest rates are based on trading levels in the bond market. Bond traders began their day looking at significantly weaker levels (i.e. higher yield...
Mon, Aug 21 2023, 3:25 PM
Another Day in The New, Higher Rate Reality
"Higher for longer," they said. And they weren't kidding. Afte...
Mon, Aug 21 2023, 12:13 PM
The new week begins with bond yields at the highest levels since 2007 in what has been a broadly linear uptrend since late July. Up until that point,...
Mon, Aug 21 2023, 10:59 AM
For those attending the Western Secondary, remember, it never rains in Southern California. Except for now. Here’s one person who won’t be seeing So C...
Fri, Aug 18 2023, 4:49 PM
This is How They Get Ya
Bonds ended up rallying a bit to close out the week, sorta. 10yr yields were 3bps l...
Fri, Aug 18 2023, 4:28 PM
At this point "high rates" are old news. We were already close to hitting the highest levels in more than 20 years last week, so it wasn't a huge surp...
Fri, Aug 18 2023, 10:51 AM
Like the crowd that cheers when their team scores late in a game that they have no hope of winning, it's hard not to feel some sense of relief or opti...
Fri, Aug 18 2023, 10:49 AM
As numbers approaching a thousand head to Orange County, CA, for the California MBA’s Western Secondary, keeping an eye on the remnants of a hurricane...
Thu, Aug 17 2023, 3:37 PM
Bonds Came Here to Chew Gum and Sell Off, And They're All Out of Gum
There comes a time in protracted bond m...
Thu, Aug 17 2023, 3:06 PM
Readers of financial news outside the mortgage industry are accustomed to getting their mortgage rate updates on a weekly basis. This has only recent...
Thu, Aug 17 2023, 1:36 PM
The GFC (great financial crisis) shaped and reshaped the worldview of any market-watcher that lived through it. The 70s/80s were increasingly seen as...
