Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:49 AM
Taylor Swift sang of a “Cruel Summer” and vendors and lenders hope that it isn’t. “If you ever get cold, stand in the corner of a room for a while. Th...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:45 AM
The rate of both construction permitting and residential construction starts fell in May, with permitting losing ground for the third straight month. ...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:07 AM
On Tuesday, bonds had an initial, positive reaction to the Retail Sales data that clearly ended mere minutes after the release. Yields trended slight...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 8:31 AM
There was a slight increase in mortgage application volume during the week ended June 14. For a change, it was accounted for by the home purchasing co...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 4:13 PM
Additional Mid-Day Gains Independent of Data and Events
Bonds traded the day in two distinct sections. Firs...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates began the week with a modest move back up and over the 7% threshold, but managed to erase some of those losses today. The improvement ...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 11:34 AM
It’s been 55 years since Bryan Adams’ Summer of ’69. (That’s 55 years prior to the latest CFPB action against a lender.) Here in Hawai’i, the populati...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 10:19 AM
It's nearly impossible to avoid hearing the phrase "data dependent" when following financial markets these days and this morning's movement is the lat...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:40 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Give Back Some of Last Week's Gains
After rallying from roughly 4.45 to 4.22% l...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher to start the new week. With the average top tier 30yr fixed rate just under 7% on Friday, this meant a move to j...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 11:42 AM
This week includes Juneteenth, a reminder of how slow news traveled in the past, as well as the Summer Solstice. Here in Hawai’i, in terms of daylight...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 11:17 AM
Last week, MBS underperformance was front and center. One of the justifications was the fact that MBS almost always underperform when Treasuries go o...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 3:36 PM
Once More: What's Up With MBS Underperformance?
The notion of MBS underperforming Treasuries is front and ce...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 3:27 PM
Today saw the average conventional 30yr fixed rate rise ever so slightly for top tier scenarios. Most lenders are still quoting those scenarios just ...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 1:07 PM
The bond market has a lot on its mind after this past week of economic data and events. Inflation quickly and increasingly looks like it may (finally...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 11:51 AM
“In Florida earlier this week we celebrated with a couple of adult beverages: Metamucil and Ensure.” Every state has its quirks, and every state is ma...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 3:46 PM
Helpful Data, MBS Underperformance, Is This Time Different?
The bond market reacted favorably to this mornin...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 3:35 PM
You'd have to go back to March 28th to see the average mortgage lender offering a lower rate on a top tier, conventional 30yr fixed scenario than they...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 11:42 AM
This morning I head to Chicago, IL, a state with 972 licensed mortgage banking companies. Illinois has had its share of severe storm damage (heck, in ...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 10:48 AM
In a nutshell, this morning's economic data rapidly reversed the weakness seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, thus restoring the lowest yields ac...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:22 PM
Massive CPI Rally Cut in Half After Fed Announcement
As discussed in the AM commentary, bonds rallied sharpl...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:10 PM
It was an incredibly high consequence day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates due to the confluence of two extremely important events. The ...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate ha...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 11:35 AM
Florida became a state in 1845. Sixteen years later, kites were used in the American Civil War to deliver letters, news, and newspapers. Now we have… ...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 10:32 AM
There are so many line items in the CPI data that it would be hard to imagine a truly perfect report. In today's case, one could still take exception...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 8:14 AM
Mortgage application activity recovered nicely last week from a downturn during the previous holiday-shortened week, helped by a temporary drop in in...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:53 PM
Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Hold The Range
If yesterday was a placeholder ahead of bigger ticket events, an...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:30 PM
Today's mortgage rates were fairly close to yesterday's at the average lender for the 3rd business day in a row. Friday was the last day with any sub...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 11:51 AM
I head to Sarasota, Florida this morning, not to look for Florida Man, but for the MBA Florida Conference. A big topic will be homeowner’s insurance. ...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 10:20 AM
Not every day is destined to be significant (or even interesting) for the bond market. Depending on the outcome of today's only relevant calendar eve...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 3:24 PM
Straightforward Session as Traders Wait For More
Monday ended up being rather uneventful for the bond despit...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 3:02 PM
There's been a noticeable uptick in mortgage rate volatility over the past two weeks with a quick spike at the end of May, a nice drop in early June a...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 11:55 AM
“It's half the price of living at home!” Meet the people swapping dry land for a perpetual cruise. Meanwhile, back in the real world, residential loan...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 10:55 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has done more than any other report to shape trends in the bond market in the past year. At times (such as the middle ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 4:06 PM
What Jobs Report? Bring on CPI and the Fed
Bonds made it almost all week putting on a superhuman display of...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 3:32 PM
There's a strong case to be made for the fact that interest rates had a sunny predisposition this week. In practical terms, that simply meant giving ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 12:23 PM
Whether it was a magical combination of Treasury auction timing and new month trading or a legitimate shift in response to Monday's ISM Manufacturing ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 11:44 AM
Huh? Michigan passed California in legal weed sales? The folks here in San Diego don’t seem to mind, and many on the street are doing their part to ke...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 4:12 PM
Bonds Continue Taking Their Seats Ahead of The Big Show
Although bonds continued to improve yesterday, the p...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 4:00 PM
The outcome of certain economic reports will determine whether the next big move in interest rates is higher or lower. Two reports are more important...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 11:41 AM
“My granddad was responsible for 25 downed German planes in WW II. To this day, he is still known as the worst mechanic the Luftwaffe ever had.” On th...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 10:00 AM
We've been anticipating this week of data for the past 3 weeks and it has been delivering on the promise of increased motivation for the bond market. ...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 4:08 PM
Counterintuitive Reaction to Data, But We're Not Upset
The bond market did not stick to its usual script tod...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 3:46 PM
The phrase "data dependent" is ingrained in the current bond market psychology for good reason. Weaker trends in economic data will reliably cause th...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 10:52 AM
ISM produces two PMIs. Both of them have a strong track record of inspiring market movement with today's service sector version being the bigger deal...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 8:28 AM
I head to San Diego today, home to an estimated 300-500,000 roaming feral cats! Cat fans are quick to point out that the word "homeowner" has the word...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 7:00 AM
Interest rates, along with the distraction of a three-day weekend, further slowed the mortgage market last week. Tho Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:18 PM
For most lenders, you'd still see modestly lower rates on several days in mid May, but apart from that, you'd need to go all the way back to early Apr...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:16 PM
More Gains After JOLTS, But They Might Have Happened Anyway
The winning streak continues for the bond market...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 9:56 AM
Once again, the bond market is starting the domestic session with 10yr yields several bps lower day-over-day. We can credit European bonds for that o...