Thu, Oct 27 2022, 3:34 PM
Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide
Bonds may have moved into stronger territory tod...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 11:37 AM
Today began with bonds in moderately weaker territory after token defensive positioning following a solid rally and ahead of the week's more consequen...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 9:40 AM
The financial press seems enthralled with the business cycle. Expansion, contraction, rates and stocks up, rates and stocks down. Right now they’re al...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for an impressive 4th straight day. That hasn't happened since late July, but there are a few caveats. First off, while t...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:06 PM
Another Solid Day; Detailed Discussion on 5.0 Coupons vs 7% Rates
Bonds are trading better than they have at...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 12:31 PM
A bit of housekeeping before we get to the UMBS question...
Bonds have have been rallying very well since yesterday morning. At the same time, the ...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 9:57 AM
As the MBA’s conference in Nashville wraps up, lenders and vendors are in an interesting mindset. Optimists are saying, “There’s a lot of opportunity ...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 9:41 AM
There was a slight increase in refinancing during the week ended October 21, but overall mortgage applications fell for the fifth straight week. The M...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 5:18 PM
Yesterday, we noted that the 2nd consecutive day of improvement for mortgage rates was a rare accomplishment in the context of the past few months. N...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 4:34 PM
Strong Showing For Bonds. So Have Things Changed?
Bonds rallied overnight of their own volition and in conce...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 3:36 PM
Home prices fell sharply again in August according to the two leading home price indices, both released this morning. The Federal Housing Finance Age...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 12:13 PM
Bonds rallied at a solid pace overnight with gains in both Asian and European sessions. More impressive, however, have been the domestic session gain...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 9:24 AM
In the press, here’s some information on the hit the Fed’s balance sheet has taken give the bond market selloff. And here at the MBA’s annual, some of...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 5:15 PM
Now here's a rare thing! Mortgage rates managed to move lower, on average, for the 2nd consecutive business day on Monday. That hasn't happened for r...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 4:50 PM
US Bonds Try (And Fail) To Follow The EU Rally
The average day over the past few weeks/months has seen a hig...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 12:00 PM
The end of last week was a wild little emotional roller coaster for the bond market. Thursday brought a sharp sell-off that spilled into the overnigh...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 9:52 AM
There’s a lot of good-natured competition here in Nashville. Around the world, there’s a competition for everything. Eat the most hot dogs, win the Wo...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 8:18 PM
There's no way to sugarcoat the situation in the bond market and, by extension, the mortgage and housing markets. Rates have risen at a nearly unprece...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 4:47 PM
Crazy, Scary Morning Gives Way to Moderate Gains
The bond market gamed the Fed today, and won (i.e. the long...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 12:34 PM
The bond market began the day by doing its best impression of lover scorned, threatening self harm unless it gets some sort of validation from its for...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 9:47 AM
Denver’s airport has the longest runway in the U.S. at 16,000 feet (3 miles). As thousands of vendors, with some lenders thrown in for good measure, a...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 5:27 PM
Important Day For Bonds and an Important Conversation About MBS Coupons
The important conversation about MBS...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 4:42 PM
Let's talk about exactly what it means to see a mortgage rate headline in the news, or even from some seemingly official index or survey. In fact, l...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 4:08 PM
If anything, today's Existing Home Sales data is a bit of a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy housing market. Sure, the annual pace of sales is as l...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 11:59 AM
Everyone is tired of the persistent sell-off in the bond market, but weariness is no match for the negative momentum. We've long since run out of ways...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 9:08 AM
While we had news today of the British Prime Minister resigning, yesterday my doctor asked if anyone in my family suffers from mental illness. I repli...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 5:10 PM
There's no sense in beating a dead horse or wading through another "same story, different day" assessment of rates. They were already at 20 year highs...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 4:59 PM
Another Move to Long Term Lows 'Just Because'
Today began with more upward pressure on yields, apparently du...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 1:49 PM
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported a small improvement in the number of permits issued in September a...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 11:08 AM
Today begins with bond yields at new 14 year highs with the ostensible culprit being the inflation reading in the UK overnight. While there's no ques...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 9:24 AM
Here in Orange County, the mortgage talk runs the gamut. Sure, a recession would cause rates to drop, but before that happens, are residential lenders...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 8:18 AM
Mortgage application activity fell again during the week ended October 14 as mortgage interest rates hit their highest level in 20 years. The Market B...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 5:30 PM
Secret Market Movers or New Normal For Intraday Volatility?
Today's most exciting moments arrived just after...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, but not without plenty of volatility in between. Mortgage lenders would prefer to set their rates once...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 5:23 PM
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) has only been publishing builder confidence numbers since the mid 1980s. It's possible--if not likely...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 11:16 AM
When salmon return to the river after spending a number of years in the ocean, they don't charge upstream immediately. They spend time moving in and ...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 9:40 AM
Do you think putting together a loan is tough? How ‘bout a giant skeleton in your front yard? This dedicated individual has documented the process of ...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 5:40 PM
Not only is the mortgage rate landscape vastly different than most of the past 20 years in terms of outright levels, but the way things change from da...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 4:26 PM
Technically Stronger But it Feels Weaker
Bonds began the day in stronger territory with overnight support co...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 12:40 PM
Recall that last Friday saw an extremely sharp selling spree led by UK and exacerbated by domestic data (consumer inflation expectations). Yields end...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 9:35 AM
There’s a splendid joke about the definition of an economist being someone who “will know tomorrow why the things they predicted yesterday didn't happ...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 9:09 PM
Unsurprisingly, the market remains intently focused on inflation as the key driver of Fed policy and rate volatility. This week, the biggest inflation...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 4:28 PM
Even When It's Good, It's Bad
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and E...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 4:20 PM
Rent growth is coming down from its post pandemic pace, and rents may, in some isolated cases be inching lower according to two new studies. While the...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 12:32 PM
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and Europe. Kwarteng, the British Finance Minister who kicked off the worst ...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 9:44 AM
Camping: “where you spend a small fortune to live like a homeless person.” Lenders have done a remarkable job in the last few years trying to reduce h...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 5:00 PM
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal?
Bonds may have ended the day in negative territory, but t...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 4:22 PM
There was no way to be sure what the effect of today's economic data would be on mortgage rates. All we knew is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) w...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 11:42 AM
Pretty simple this morning, at first anyway. Bonds hoped to see just a modicum of relief in the most important data series of 2022, the Consumer Pric...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 10:13 AM
Why aren’t there 103’s on rate sheets? With 30-year mortgage rates firmly in the 7 percent range, the market has moved too fast for any kind of substa...
