Fri, Feb 16 2024, 5:17 PM
At present, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the jobs report are the two most important considerations for interest rate momentum as far as economic...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 5:02 PM
Inflation Surprises Delay The Decision
In the short term, it's nice to see that today's massively higher PP...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 11:56 AM
If CPI is a 10 out of 10 on a scale of economic data that causes bond market volatility, PPI is never more than a 5. It's a good thing too. All it t...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 11:10 AM
Even though the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the third consecutive increase in its measure of home builder confidence, actual...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 10:42 AM
It was a sad day earlier this week for anyone who likes food out of a toaster as the inventor of Pop-Tarts passed away at age 96. (Yes, Pop-Tarts were...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 4:43 PM
Reasons For Hope And Caution Heading Into 3-Day Weekend
First off, "hope" and "caution" have different meani...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 4:21 PM
While weekly mortgage rate indices are pointing out the sharp jump from last Wednesday's levels, daily rates have fallen twice in a row. The peak was...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 11:01 AM
In my travels I’ve eaten some unusual foods, although maybe not this unusual, but here in Boise the talk is about how unusual it is that applications ...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 9:57 AM
Apart from CPI and NFP there are only a handful of other reports that truly deserve to be considered supporting actors in the current bond market dram...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 5:23 PM
As is often the case, there are a few ways to look at rates at the moment. In the medium term, we can still take heart in the fact that rates are abo...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 5:22 PM
Refreshing Resilience, But Not Guaranteed
On a positive note, it was refreshing to see the bond market make ...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 12:20 PM
Wednesday is shaping up to be a victory based on early trading, with bonds pushing back tentatively on yesterday's big sell-off. The emphasis is on t...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 11:50 AM
Have you ever been to a chiropractor? You know, where there’s something out of alignment, you describe it to them, and then they work their magic? Her...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 9:02 AM
Higher mortgage rates hindered application activity during the week ended February 9. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 3:55 PM
If it feels like there's been an inordinate amount of focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recently, today proved it was justified. It's not hard ...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 3:16 PM
Unfortunately, Bonds Did Exactly What They Were Supposed to Do Today
Over the course of the past two weeks, ...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 11:36 AM
In our biz, you never want to hear, “deception,” “targeting the elderly,” or “abusive tactics” related to a company. But there they are in this report...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 9:58 AM
It is a very straightforward morning for the bond market, but not in any sort of pleasant way. There was a lot at stake heading into today's inflatio...
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 3:16 PM
After spiking to the highest levels in over a month last Monday, rates have held eerily steady. To be fair, the steadiness started the following day ...
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 3:14 PM
No Way to Know What CPI Looks Like Until We See It
Monday was very much a placeholder in the grand scheme. ...
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 11:36 AM
Why should lenders and vendors care about servicing? (STRATMOR’s current blog is titled, “It’s 2024: Do You Know Where Your Servicing Is?”) Not only d...
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 11:00 AM
Have you heard about the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? We can't shut up about it, largely because there's not much to talk about in terms of scheduled ...
Fri, Feb 9 2024, 5:19 PM
Near the end of last week, the title of the daily mortgage rate article was "Rates Right in Line With Long-Term Lows, But That Could Change on Friday....
Fri, Feb 9 2024, 4:14 PM
Uneventful Ceiling Defense
On a day where 10yr Treasury yields bounced multiple times at the 4.19% technical...
Fri, Feb 9 2024, 1:01 PM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the one thing we wait for after the jobs report comes out. After CPI, the one thing becomes the next jobs report (a...
Fri, Feb 9 2024, 11:35 AM
Sometimes there is no shortcut when you want to make a lot of money. Speaking of making money, and creating wealth for clients, owning real estate con...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 3:30 PM
Bonds Increasingly Look Like They're Waiting For CPI
It wouldn't be the first time and probably won't be the...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 1:22 PM
Mortgage rates were technically a hair higher today when compared with yesterday's latest offerings, but it's just as fair to say they've been unchang...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 12:55 PM
It's an interesting little interlude in the story of the bond market as yields wait to find out what's next after (probably) confirming long-term high...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 11:17 AM
Economists have their favorite indices to measure the health of the economy. GDP, if men are buying underwear, CPI, RV shipments, GDP, plastic surgery...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market. As we saw last week, trading in the bond market can often be very exciting, even if that exci...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 5:04 PM
Fed Speakers on Repeat as Bonds Hit Snooze
After several days of heavy volatility, the bond market is drifti...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 11:11 AM
When this commentary gig gets old, I think I’ll take up… throwing needles? But so far so good, putting this out six days a week. Yesterday I glanced a...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 9:35 AM
After rising roughly 2bps yesterday afternoon, bond yields dropped just over 2bps right at the start of the overnight session with buzz surrounding Mo...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 8:44 AM
Mortgage application volume rose modestly during the week as mortgage rates marked time. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Comp...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 4:09 PM
The past two business days (Friday and Monday) accounted for the 3rd largest increase in mortgage rates since March 2020. Friday, specifically, was t...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 4:02 PM
Magical Mystery Rally
Whereas the bond market had obvious, individual motivations for all phases of the shar...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 12:59 PM
When bond yields began spiking abruptly after last Friday's jobs report, one of the immediate saving graces was the fact that the late January highs w...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 10:45 AM
Every month we receive statistics showing how prices are going up, or down, and our Federal Reserve is continually mentioning controlling inflation wh...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:40 PM
Last Friday was the worst day for mortgage rates in over a year in terms of day-over-day movement (October 19th, 2023 remains the worst day in decades...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:23 PM
Big Losses Get Bigger After ISM Data
Bonds sold off again today, but this time in several distinct waves. T...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 10:39 AM
“If I had a dollar for every girl that found me unattractive, they would eventually find me attractive.” New York Community Bancorp, buyer of Flagstar...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 9:55 AM
The bond market continues providing a great example big movement in the "little picture." Right out of the gate, if we examine just a slightly bigger...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Was The Jobs Report Real and What Are The Lasting Implications?
Is Friday's NFP number of 353k versus a 180k...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates were crushed by today's jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls (the main component of the report), came in significantly higher than expected...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 12:43 PM
It's not really an exaggeration to say "no one saw it coming" with respect to this morning's jobs report. NFP hit 353k versus a forecast of 180k. 10...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 10:54 AM
Although he is correct less than half the time, groundhog Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow this morning, meaning an early spring is likely. At ...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:10 PM
"Long-term" is a subjective measurement, but in this case, it refers to the the past 7 or 8 months. Today's mortgage rates dropped to levels that--un...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:08 PM
Best Levels in More Than a Month Ahead of Jobs Report
At one point this morning, 10yr yields were close to b...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 12:03 PM
It is undoubtedly ironic that the Fed just removed a sentence that had been in the statement since March 2023 regarding the banking system being sound...
