Fri, Nov 15 2019, 8:31 AM
It's Friday and that means it's time to be on the lookout for unexpected trade-related headlines, especially in the afternoon. Those sorts of newswir...
Thu, Nov 14 2019, 4:58 PM
By the end of last week, although there was potentially a sliver of hope afforded by Friday's highs being slightly lower than Thursday's, it looked li...
Thu, Nov 14 2019, 9:32 AM
Bonds gave us quite a scare last week as key technical ceilings gave way. High volume and concrete fundamental justification added validity to the mo...
Wed, Nov 13 2019, 10:03 AM
The most defining moment of the big 2019 bond rally was undoubtedly the August 1st tariff announcement and the resulting massive reaction in both yiel...
Tue, Nov 12 2019, 5:01 PM
There are all kinds of bonds out there. We follow the 10yr Treasury even though this is a mortgage-specific site for reasons outlined here. Beyond T...
Tue, Nov 12 2019, 9:44 AM
1.90% has been the most important, most dangerous ceiling for 10yr Treasury yields ever since a nasty selling spree stalled out there exactly 2 months...
Fri, Nov 8 2019, 9:12 AM
If you don't expect anything good to happen for the bond market for the next few months, I guarantee you won't be disappointed. If, however, you expe...
Thu, Nov 7 2019, 6:21 PM
It was a big, bad day for the bond market, although the size of the thing ended up getting pared down just a bit in the afternoon. Chalk that up to a...
Thu, Nov 7 2019, 10:37 AM
Yesterday brought a brief reprieve for bonds after the first 2 days of the week threatened to confirm a big picture shift toward higher rates (or at l...
Wed, Nov 6 2019, 5:31 PM
Today's 10yr Treasury auction brought strong demand . Across the board, the auction stats were much stronger than expected. The only real problem w...
Wed, Nov 6 2019, 9:46 AM
Yesterday was a big, bad day for the bond market with the hotly-anticipated ISM Non-Manufacturing data coming in much stronger than expected. Bonds c...
Tue, Nov 5 2019, 6:29 PM
Heading into last week's Fed announcement and economic data, the analysis was starting to get a bit gloomy. It wasn't the first time I talked about...
Tue, Nov 5 2019, 8:52 AM
Bonds had a reasonably rough day yesterday, but most of the weakness was reserved for Treasuries. MBS managed to escape with minimal damage. There w...
Mon, Nov 4 2019, 7:09 PM
Treasuries tanked today and there were none of the sort of obvious catalysts you'd hope to see. I checked my math on that with people smarter than me...
Mon, Nov 4 2019, 10:23 AM
For some reason, I feel like the 2nd half of 2018 has been one of the most legitimately uncertain eras of bond trading in the post-crisis market envir...
Fri, Nov 1 2019, 5:24 PM
Bonds were stronger overnight, riding a wave of buying demand on the heels of yesterday's weak econ data and US/China trade deal uncertainty. Some ma...
Fri, Nov 1 2019, 9:41 AM
Bonds rallied big yesterday on a combination of factors. These included a rejection of the Trump administration's claimed timeline for the US/China t...
Thu, Oct 31 2019, 5:59 PM
Most of the month of October was rotten for the bond market. Material progress on the trade deal, a leveling-off of economic data deterioration, and ...
Thu, Oct 31 2019, 8:35 AM
Chicago PMI isn't always more important that PCE inflation. After all Core PCE is the Fed's favorite big-picture inflation reading (the thing they wa...
Wed, Oct 30 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July September indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic...
Wed, Oct 30 2019, 10:08 AM
The bond market had a decent enough day yesterday as it managed to hold steady-to-slightly-stronger versus Monday's ugly closing levels. "Supply" (ak...
Tue, Oct 29 2019, 5:33 PM
The only way to read anything overly dramatic into today's bond trading would simply be to observe where it falls in the bigger picture. In other wor...
Tue, Oct 29 2019, 9:28 AM
Yesterday saw the bond market sell off in a fairly frustrating way. Granted, there was some justification for the initial overnight weakness courtesy...
Mon, Oct 28 2019, 9:52 AM
Last Friday's morning commentary wasn't necessarily fun to read for fans of low rates, but it was important to digest for those that want to be prepar...
Fri, Oct 25 2019, 4:56 PM
Let's face it. It makes sense for the average bond trader to be more indecisive than normal right now. A no-deal Brexit was avoided this week (bad f...
Fri, Oct 25 2019, 11:17 AM
In about 2 weeks, the big bond rally of 2019 will officially be 1 year old (because it actually began in the 2nd week of November). This has been a u...
Thu, Oct 24 2019, 4:17 PM
At a few points in the past 2 days, it looked as if bonds were finally ready to move back toward lower yields after 2 weeks spent moving fairly quickl...
Thu, Oct 24 2019, 8:31 AM
Yesterday was fairly uneventful as global markets generally cooled off after 2 big days of Brexit-related volatility at the beginning of the week. Fo...
Wed, Oct 23 2019, 9:38 AM
Yesterday saw bonds respond almost exclusively to Brexit-related headlines (read THIS RECAP for a synopsis of the day's events and Brexit's impact on ...
Tue, Oct 22 2019, 5:42 PM
First things first: all of the volatility we're about to discuss has been occurring inside a fairly narrow range in the slightly bigger picture. More...
Tue, Oct 22 2019, 9:32 AM
Yesterday saw an extension of the recent selling trend in bonds with yields hitting the highest levels in more than a month. One might argue that yes...
Mon, Oct 21 2019, 9:09 AM
Last week saw the US bond market fight off an intermittent barrage of weakness as global markets geared up for the weekend's big Brexit vote. By Fri...
Fri, Oct 18 2019, 6:04 PM
Today was a throw-away day for the bond market. Yields matched their narrowest trading range of the week and ended the day at their most 'unchanged' ...
Fri, Oct 18 2019, 9:03 AM
Yesterday brought the highest yields in a month as Brexit-related optimism swelled early in the overnight session. At issue: British PM Johnson and E...
Thu, Oct 17 2019, 4:24 PM
The bond market has a lot on its mind right now. 2019 is proving to be very different from other episodes of big, protracted rate trends. In most pa...
Thu, Oct 17 2019, 9:34 AM
Yesterday saw a swath of Brexit headlines spark unavoidable bond market weakness just as a weaker reading in the important Retail Sales report suggest...
Wed, Oct 16 2019, 6:31 PM
There was a bit of a giveaway in this morning's commentary, titled "Brexit Headlines vs Retail Sales." Indeed, it's "Brexit headlines" that answer th...
Wed, Oct 16 2019, 8:45 AM
Yesterday saw bonds undo a decent amount of overnight progress to end at the highest yields in nearly a month. 10yr Treasuries broke above the 1.75% ...
Tue, Oct 15 2019, 4:59 PM
There were two key parts to today's market movement. The first was the general push back against Friday's bond market weakness courtesy of less upbea...
Tue, Oct 15 2019, 10:05 AM
Last week brought a bit of a bumpy ride for bond markets with trade-related news accounting for most of the drama. Things were more uneventful on the...
Fri, Oct 11 2019, 6:11 PM
With the exception of the wee hours yesterday morning, the past 2 days have been all about the trade deal. Markets knew Trump and the Chinese vice pr...
Fri, Oct 11 2019, 9:00 AM
Yesterday brought an abrupt confirmation of a bounce in bonds. For 10yr Treasury yields, the scene of the bounce was 1.51% earlier in the week. Mult...
Thu, Oct 10 2019, 6:09 PM
Heading into this week, we looked to today as the biggest potential source of volatility owing to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and th...
Thu, Oct 10 2019, 9:15 AM
Yesterday brought moderate weakness for the bond market. Justifying it doesn't have to be any more complicated than technical resistance combined wit...
Wed, Oct 9 2019, 5:36 PM
The same old pattern played out today where MBS weren't able to keep solid pace with Treasury movement. This is one of those "for better or worse" ki...
Wed, Oct 9 2019, 9:28 AM
In the day just passed, bonds initially tried to erase the weakness seen in Monday's session. They were largely successful in the morning hours, but ...
Tue, Oct 8 2019, 5:26 PM
Bonds were stronger to start the domestic session after European bonds led a rally late in the overnight hours. Trading was flat during the domestic ...
Tue, Oct 8 2019, 8:32 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market sold off in rather underwhelming fashion. There was no overt source of pessimism and the pace of movement lac...
Mon, Oct 7 2019, 5:51 PM
Bonds sold off today, but not excessively, and almost not at all if MBS had anything to say about it. Even Treasuries were fairly close to 'unchanged...
Mon, Oct 7 2019, 9:24 AM
In the week just passed, the bond market rallied strongly. Weaker economic data--especially the two ISM reports--led the way, ensuring the middle 3 d...
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