Fri, Sep 20 2019, 6:15 PM
Last week brought the pain. It was the worst single week for the bond market (if we count MBS) since 2013. Although this week won't break any record...
Fri, Sep 20 2019, 10:14 AM
In the day just passed, bonds trading was exceptionally calm in the wake of Wednesday's Fed day. As I mentioned in the recap, it was one of the least...
Thu, Sep 19 2019, 5:45 PM
Relative to the expectation for yesterday's Fed events to cause volatility, the movement we've seen in the bond market has been fairly pitiful in re...
Thu, Sep 19 2019, 9:16 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market finally got a chance to sink its teeth into the much-anticipated Fed announcement/forecasts/press conference. ...
Wed, Sep 18 2019, 5:49 PM
As far as Fed days go--especially the kind where we get updated economic projections--today's example was pretty damn uneventful. These things happen...
Wed, Sep 18 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June July indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic acti...
Wed, Sep 18 2019, 9:09 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market managed to add a 2nd day to a friendly correction--a small counterattack against the much larger corrective se...
Tue, Sep 17 2019, 6:24 PM
Today saw the narrowest trading range of any day so far this month and by far the calmest day since the big September selling spree began. Drama came...
Tue, Sep 17 2019, 9:27 AM
In the day just passed, bonds saw their first reprieve from the fairly brutal correction that has defined essentially all of September. 10yr yields d...
Mon, Sep 16 2019, 5:26 PM
Today's key development was over-the-weekend news of drone strikes on Saudi oil assets. Iran is getting the blame, but Trump says he's not in a rush ...
Mon, Sep 16 2019, 9:55 AM
In the week just passed, the bond market sold off at the fastest pace since the June 2013 taper tantrum. That's a relatively impressive feat at first...
Fri, Sep 13 2019, 8:36 AM
In the day just passed, bonds got our hopes up early with an initially positive reaction to the ECB announcement. We were even in the green for most ...
Thu, Sep 12 2019, 6:18 PM
10yr yields hit 1.80% today. Using the power of the MBS Live search feature, I compiled the following list to put 1.80% in context:
"I'd be looking...
Thu, Sep 12 2019, 9:25 AM
In the day just passed, the recent bond market selling-spree showed its first serious signs of leveling off since it began one week ago. This wasn't ...
Wed, Sep 11 2019, 5:30 PM
Bond traders took a break from their newfound hobby of the past 5 business days: relentlessly selling bonds . Maybe they want to branch out and try ...
Wed, Sep 11 2019, 9:50 AM
In the day just passed, bonds kicked into higher gear with respect to the correction that began to materialize last Thursday. If you feel like you mi...
Tue, Sep 10 2019, 6:14 PM
Bonds continued to sell-off again today--this time slightly more aggressively than yesterday. Yes, the current spike in yields/rates is frustrating, ...
Tue, Sep 10 2019, 9:16 AM
In the day just passed, bonds began the week with a resolute sell-off that broke through an important overhead ceiling in 10yr yields (1.62). Weaknes...
Mon, Sep 9 2019, 6:26 PM
Bonds were weaker overnight, weaker during the AM hours, and just for good measure, weaker again in the afternoon. When the dust cleared, 10yr yields...
Mon, Sep 9 2019, 9:13 AM
Bonds are starting out in weaker territory this morning, mostly due to European trading hours. An improving US/China trade dialogue has been the defa...
Fri, Sep 6 2019, 5:37 PM
To be sure, there was at least some amount of trepidation ahead of today's jobs report. The past 2 trading days made a clear case for it with stronge...
Fri, Sep 6 2019, 11:45 AM
The title is a bit misleading. 2.5% coupons are nothing new--especially if we're talking about 15yr MBS. Even in 30yr MBS, 2.5s were being traded as...
Thu, Sep 5 2019, 4:36 PM
It's only fitting to throw in a vacation-themed reference on Labor Day week. Unfortunately, only the metaphor is lighthearted. It's underlying messa...
Thu, Sep 5 2019, 10:00 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market endured a bit of selling pressure courtesy of various overseas developments and an onslaught of corporate bond...
Wed, Sep 4 2019, 8:23 PM
The past several days have been very good to the mortgage market. The secondary side of the market had been waiting for spreads to be able to tighten...
Wed, Sep 4 2019, 9:15 AM
In the day just passed, bonds rallied to start the overnight session, largely following Brexit-related trading in Europe. Yields rose moderately head...
Tue, Sep 3 2019, 5:31 PM
Today had potential to be one of those days where overnight give way to a frustrating sell-off that intensifies throughout the day. In fact, that wo...
Tue, Sep 3 2019, 9:26 AM
In the week just passed, Treasuries put in their most stable and uninspiring performance of the month (in their defense, it was a crazy month). Ever...
Fri, Aug 30 2019, 9:18 AM
In the day just passed, the Treasury complex came under pressure on several fronts. Trade related headlines sapped some of the safe haven demand, as ...
Thu, Aug 29 2019, 4:57 PM
Bonds were weaker overnight in response to upbeat trade headlines from China's commerce minister as well as Italian political news (read the MBS Liv...
Thu, Aug 29 2019, 9:37 AM
Yesterday was one of the most boring trading sessions in recent memory. There were no meaningful market movers to discuss for the Treasury complex. ...
Wed, Aug 28 2019, 7:07 PM
Not many moving part to today's trading session... Bonds were modestly stronger overnight, mostly in order to keep some semblance of pace with bett...
Wed, Aug 28 2019, 9:18 AM
In the day just passed, traders focused on the yield curve--an opaque term that officially refers to the entire curve of bond yields versus bond durat...
Tue, Aug 27 2019, 6:58 PM
Bonds drifted into slightly stronger territory in the overnight session. The move was seemingly devoid of inspiration and had a very technical, mecha...
Tue, Aug 27 2019, 9:05 AM
In the day just passed, bonds jumped out to an early lead in the overnight session on another incremental installment of trade war brinksmanship. Chi...
Mon, Aug 26 2019, 5:09 PM
It's a real bloodbath out there in the secondary mortgage market right now. The spread between MBS yields and Treasuries has quickly gone from surpri...
Mon, Aug 26 2019, 9:06 AM
In the week just passed, the bond market set out to digest and react to the Federal Reserve only to end up finding much bigger inspiration. Wednesday...
Fri, Aug 23 2019, 6:09 PM
I was going to leave Tennyson out of the headline and bask in the alliterative glory of an unprecedented 5T title, but I figured you should know there...
Fri, Aug 23 2019, 9:14 AM
In the day just passed, bond markets weakened in the overnight session and then held mostly steady during the domestic hours. The most notable attemp...
Thu, Aug 22 2019, 4:18 PM
Today's most prominent trade was the reaction to the 9:45am Markit PMI data. Several of the metrics were at their weakest levels since 2009. The com...
Thu, Aug 22 2019, 8:52 AM
In the day just passed, bonds digested and reacted to the minutes from the latest Fed meeting (from late July). Given that the Fed cut rates at that ...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 5:33 PM
Today brought the (not very) much-anticipated FOMC Minutes--a more detailed account of the conversation that transpired at the end of July when the Fe...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 10:14 AM
In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint. Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" ...
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 5:41 PM
Bonds were breathing easy by the time the domestic session got underway. Before that, they kicked off the overnight session in lower yield territory....
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 8:59 AM
In the day just passed, we considered a rather melodramatic question ("is it over?"), which refers to the general strength in the bond market seen in ...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 5:59 PM
There haven't been many market moving headlines over the past 2 days with the exception of Germany removing the veil of secrecy from its fiscal stim...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 9:24 AM
In the week just passed, bonds rallied to new long-term low yields before bouncing on Friday. Hong Kong protests over the weekend kicked things off o...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 4:54 PM
Perhaps more than any other day in the past few weeks, today stood as an example of the mortgage market's ability to put up a fight when the time is...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 11:28 AM
10yr yields rallied aggressively yesterday, and for no reason more compelling than a proverbial "snowball rally compounded by technicals and algorithm...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 5:35 PM
Bonds digested the week's busiest day of economic data, by far, today. But markets in general are only interested in data that changes the economic n...
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