Fri, Jun 26 2020, 4:41 PM
The Trend is Officially Broken. Welcome Back To The Range
Bond yields moved lower today, thus breaking out ...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 8:31 AM
Although markets are still sideways relative to the bigger volatility of the previous 3 weeks, bond yields have trickled lower this week. This brought...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 2:50 PM
Lots of Indecision, But The Outcome Should Make Sense
Both stocks and bonds are trading sideways after takin...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 9:08 AM
Let's get the housekeeping out of the way first. With so much talk in the news about the coronavirus effect on GDP, I figured I'd point out that toda...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 3:28 PM
Rising Rates Thwarted By Coronavirus Concerns
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 9:30 AM
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due to an unprecedented global emergency. Unless coronavirus situations deteriorates signif...
Tue, Jun 23 2020, 4:16 PM
Decent Day For MBS But Broader Trend Remains a Concern
Rates are low. Unless coronavirus wins (or looks like...
Tue, Jun 23 2020, 8:42 AM
We've definitely seen Treasuries improve relative to MBS more often than not in the past week or two. The most obvious driving force behind that ph...
Mon, Jun 22 2020, 3:06 PM
Locking vs Floating Remains a Question of Covid vs The Economy
Rates are low. Unless coronavirus wins, rates...
Mon, Jun 22 2020, 8:55 AM
The bond market is starting the day fairly flat. Each of the past 4 trading days has seen yields end lower than they began. And over the past two we...
Fri, Jun 19 2020, 4:33 PM
Putting MBS Underperformance in Perspective
Rates are low. Unless coronavirus wins, rates should continue to...
Thu, Jun 18 2020, 3:10 PM
Sideways Victory For Bonds and Rates
We've been tracking both a sideways trend and an uptrend in bond yields...
Thu, Jun 18 2020, 8:34 AM
The bond market had been very flat with yields near all time lows since mid-April. If there was any predisposition toward strength or weakness during...
Wed, Jun 17 2020, 4:07 PM
Which Way Do We Go?
Markets continue trying to sort out the prospects for a recovery vs the risk of covid-19...
Wed, Jun 17 2020, 8:35 AM
Perspective is always important when considering market movement. Most decent charting software or any responsibly-created custom chart will scale th...
Tue, Jun 16 2020, 3:58 PM
Economic Hope Squares Off Against Virus Fears (Again)
Markets continue trying to sort out the prospects for ...
Tue, Jun 16 2020, 8:27 AM
Last week saw stock prices and bond yields fall as markets got back in touch with their recent habit of trading primarily on the coronavirus outlook. ...
Mon, Jun 15 2020, 3:34 PM
Virus Fears Back in Focus For Markets
Rather than the gradual decline that many had hoped for, we're instead...
Mon, Jun 15 2020, 8:54 AM
The week begins with global financial markets once again defending against coronavirus risks. Case counts were flat in April and most of May. The im...
Fri, Jun 12 2020, 4:55 PM
2 Wild Weeks That Mostly Cancel Each Other Out
What a difference a week makes! Last week, the order of the ...
Fri, Jun 12 2020, 9:38 AM
Yesterday, after 4 straight days of improvements, the bond market easily returned to the trading range that had been intact for 6 weeks (until it was ...
Thu, Jun 11 2020, 4:53 PM
Bonds Back in Business; More New All-Time Low Rates
What a difference a week makes! Last week, the order of...
Thu, Jun 11 2020, 8:43 AM
We'll have to be careful about thinking or saying that bonds have "confirmed" any sort of shift when it comes to established ranges or trends. The la...
Wed, Jun 10 2020, 3:42 PM
Fed Delivers. Bonds Surge
As far as the Fed is concerned, bonds don't have to stress out about rates rising ...
Wed, Jun 10 2020, 2:03 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jun 10 2020, 9:09 AM
The word "roll" has a few meanings around here. For those who participate in MBS markets at a higher level, "dollar rolls" are actual tradeable posit...
Tue, Jun 9 2020, 4:42 PM
Bond Rally or a Token Bounce After Last Week's Rout?
Last week saw rates rise at the fastest pace in months ...
Tue, Jun 9 2020, 8:43 AM
Last week saw rates rise at the fastest pace in months in an apparent lift-off from an extended stint near all-time lows. Now the current week looks v...
Mon, Jun 8 2020, 3:34 PM
Surprisingly Strong Day Made Possible By Last Week's Rout
After last week's rout at the hands of stronger ec...
Mon, Jun 8 2020, 8:53 AM
Bonds are coming off their roughest week in months with yields rising at their quickest pace since the mega-volatility seen during the panicked sell...
Fri, Jun 5 2020, 4:04 PM
That Escalated Quickly, But MBS Recovered Fairly Nicely
After weeks and weeks (6, to be specific) of extraor...
Fri, Jun 5 2020, 8:18 AM
After weeks and weeks (6, to be specific) of extraordinarily calm and narrow trading ranges in ultra-low-yield territory, the bond market has suddenly...
Thu, Jun 4 2020, 4:15 PM
Big Risks Ahead For Rates and Some Solid Opporunities Right Now
Treasury yields broke one important ceiling ...
Thu, Jun 4 2020, 8:50 AM
Yesterday's econ data caused a stir in the bond market, forcing yields to break above a key ceiling at .74%. Can they make it back below that ceiling...
Wed, Jun 3 2020, 3:54 PM
Econ Data Causing Bonds to Reconsider Commitment to Super Low Yields
Bonds haven't been interested in econ d...
Wed, Jun 3 2020, 9:23 AM
It's the first Wednesday of the month and thus time for ADP Employment data. The stated intention of this report is to predict the final revision of ...
Tue, Jun 2 2020, 3:11 PM
Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved Lower Recently
"Because they were so much higher than they...
Tue, Jun 2 2020, 9:20 AM
Today is the lightest of the week in terms of scheduled market movers on the econ calendar (there really aren't any to speak of unless you count the N...
Mon, Jun 1 2020, 2:57 PM
There's no way to predict the future for rates and markets, but there are occasionally tactical opportunities.
Mon, Jun 1 2020, 8:47 AM
A resilient performance at the end of last week means that bonds have easily staked a claim to a sideways range that's been intact for more than 2 mon...
Fri, May 29 2020, 8:52 AM
The next Fed announcement is 1.5 weeks away and so it's time to start ramping up expectations for the details of the Fed's official QE announcement. ...
Thu, May 28 2020, 9:14 AM
The market reaction to coronavirus made a mess of the relationship between Treasuries and MBS (and between MBS and mortgage rates for that matter). T...
Wed, May 27 2020, 9:17 AM
Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields. It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fair...
Tue, May 26 2020, 9:07 AM
No need to overcomplicate the current narrative: the overall financial market is attempting to balance the reopening of the economy with the risk of C...
Fri, May 22 2020, 9:37 AM
Treasuries started out stronger after overnight drama between China and Hong Kong caused a "risk-off" trade (i.e. sell stocks, buy bonds). MBS contin...
Thu, May 21 2020, 9:03 AM
Treasuries held onto yesterday's gains in the overnight session and are starting the day in slightly better shape (MBS are roughly unchanged). This m...
Wed, May 20 2020, 9:50 AM
I've been mentioning MBS outperformance and underperformance quite a bit recently, but what do these terms really mean and why do we care?
First off...
Tue, May 19 2020, 9:17 AM
Yesterday was pretty rough for bond markets as 10yr yields rose the better part of 10bps in fairly short order. It was the worst day of selling in ...
Mon, May 18 2020, 9:05 AM
Bond markets will close early this Friday and will remain fully closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. 3.5-day weekends can often see a shi...
Fri, May 15 2020, 9:17 AM
As recently as April 21st, the fate of the mortgage market was still highly uncertain and that uncertainty was readily apparent in the ridiculously w...
MBS Market Alerts
